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Dollar Vrs Inr

In:

Submitted By swatijhu
Words 423
Pages 2
Expected levelof
USD/INR
by the end of Dec 2011

Submitted by:-
Ankit Gupta
Ramanathan Krishnan
Samar Agrawal Sati Mishra
Swati Jhunjhunwala | DOLLAR VALUE AGAINST INDIAN RUPEEAT THE END OFDECEMBERBelow is the past ten months data of Currency conversion (INR against Dollar) MONTH | MONTH NAME | AVERAGE (INR equivalent to 1 Dollar) | 1 | January | 45.3975 | 2 | February | 45.423 | 3 | March | 44.9699 | 4 | April | 44.3954 | 5 | May | 44.9377 | 6 | June | 44.8426 | 7 | July | 44.4151 | 8 | August | 45.365 | 9 | September | 47.6585 | 10 | October | 49.2856 |
From the above data we can see that rupee is depreciating continuously against dollar. The currency fluctuations mainly depend on the principle of demand and supply. If the demand is more than the supply the value of a currency increases. Factors contributing to the depreciation of the rupee can be the ongoing Euro crisis which has severely affected the export of India. India has witnessed the largest trade deficit in this quarter. Inflation in India is also a point of concern.Now we need to calculate the average Dollar price against INR for the month of Dec which can be calculated in following steps:-First Step :- We need to calculate the trend which can be given by the simple linear regression model:- Y = a + b*X ----------------------(1) Y = dependent variable X = independent variable a = y-axis intercept b = slope of regression lineSecond Step:-We need to calculate the value of a and b which are:-Third Step :- Calculation of a and b:- MONTH NAME(X) | MONTH(Y) | MONTH*MONTH (INR )(X*X) | AVERAGE (Y) | MONTH*AVERAGE (X*Y) | January | 1 | 1 | 45.3975 | 45.3975 | February | 2 | 4 | 45.423 | 90.846 | March | 3 | 9 | 44.9699 | 134.9097 | April | 4 | 16 | 44.3954 | 177.5816 | May | 5 | 25 | 44.9377 |

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