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Dozier Industries

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Submitted By lucypp28
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Caso Dozier

El caso trata del dilema que tiene el CFO de Dozier Industries, Richard Rothschild al momento de firmar un contrato para exportar desde Estados Unidos hasta Inglaterra un sistema de seguridad valorado en aproximadamente 594,000 libras. Richard estaba preocupado en que el tipo de cambio fluctuara de una forma tal que se llevara las ganancias de este contrato. Por ello recurrió al banco Southern National para que le aconsejara sobre de qué podría cobrir el riesgo de tipo de cambio. De estas conversaciones, salieron tres posibles opciones.
1. Asumir el riesgo de las fluctuaciones de la libra, esto es, no realizar cobertura.
En esta opción hice los siguientes cálculos:

El día 13 de Enero de 1986 se realizo un contrato de exportación con una importante empresa británica, pagando por clausula el 10% del importe total (£117.500) y el 90% restante a 90 días (£1.057.500), siempre en moneda extranjera.
El caso se resume en la decisión del gerente de finanzas de Dozier de realizar o no una operación de cobertura frente al riesgo cambiario que implica tener un ingreso futuro en moneda extranjera, asumiendo el tipo de cambio existente en la fecha de pago. Para esto se consideraron 3 opciones:

Fecha de compra: 13 de Enero de 1986
Tipo cambio: 1,4480 US$/£

1. Opción 1: No realizar cobertura. Esta opción expone a Dozier a las fluctuaciones de la libra, causando pérdidas en caso de que la libra se aprecie y ganancias en caso contrario.

Alternativa 1 | No hacer nada | |
| Tasa spot en t0 | 1,482 |
| Tasa esperada a 3 meses | 1,4198 |
| Monto a pagar | £ 1.057.500 |
| Utilidad | $ 1.501.438,5 |
| Utilidad en t0 | $ 1.567.215,0 |
| Diferencia | -$ 65.776,5 |

2. Opción 2: Cobertura con contrato de venta forward de libras en 90 días. De esta manera se asegura un tipo de cambio a futuro, lo que mantiene fijo el ingreso a 3 meses en dólares, sin importar la tasa spot en ese momento.

Alternativa 3 | Préstamo libras 90 días | | | |
| | | | |
Prestamo | $ 1.467.448 | | Tasa deposito | 1,019426547 |
Prestamo a 3 meses | $ 1.495.955 | | Tasa préstamo | 1,035558076 |
Pago (14/1/86) | $ 168.848 | | | |
Pago a 3 meses | $ 172.128 | | | |
Total | $ 1.668.083 | | | |
Utilidad | $ 25.300 | | | |
Diferencia | $ -73.267 | | | |

3. Opción 3: Dozier tomaría un préstamo en libras y cambiaría lo obtenido a dólares a la tasa de cambio de la fecha. Transcurridos los 3 meses Dozier utilizaría el saldo de su contrato para pagar la deuda. Cualquier ganancia o pérdida en el saldo del contrato, debido a cambios en el valor de la libra, estaría contrarrestada por pérdidas o ganancias similares en el pago del préstamo.

Alternativa 2 | Venta Forward libras 90 días | | | |
| | | Tasa deposito | 1,019426547 |
Pago (14/1/86) | $ 168.848 | | | |
Venta Fw | $ 1.501.439 | | | |
Deposito a 3 meses | $ 172.128 | | | |
Total | $ 1.673.566 | | | |
Utilidad | $ 30.783 | | | |
Diferencia | -$ 67.784 | | | |

Dadas las condiciones, considerando que el tipo de cambio no baje del esperado de 3 meses es más conveniente no hacer nada.

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