Journal 3

In the article, “What are the chances Paul the octopus is right?” by Sarah Shenker and “Octopus Beats ‘Vampire Squid’ as Goldman Falls Short in World Cup” by Neelabh Chaturvedi, we are exposed about Paul, the octopus, forecasting accurate results for six of Germany’s World cup games. Learning about probabilities in class, we are trying how we can interpret rules and terms about probability to Paul the octopus selecting the winning team.
In the BBC article, Sarah Shenker states, “[Paul] had a 1/64 chance of predicting six correct outcomes.” The author reaches the probability of 1/64 by multiplying the chances of predicting for each game. For example, in the article, Paul had a 1/2 chance of predicting the first game correctly, 1/4 chance of predicting the first two games, and 1/8 chance of predicting all the first three games. Because Paul the octopus only has 50% or 1/2 chance of predicting the winning team between the two options, we would just multiple another 50% or 1/2 to the previous game. With this example, the author multiplied 1/2 for each additional game which, resulted with the 1/64 chance for predicting all six correct outcomes.
If I wanted to create my own predicting octopus for the 2019 World Cup, I would set up my “experiment,” by using the same system as Paul the Octopus, but I would add “draw” as one of the choices for the prediction. So, in the tank, I would drop two clear boxes decorated with different team flags on the front containing food inside each one. However, in my “experiment,” I would add another clear box decorated with both opposing flags to symbolize “draw” as one of the results. My new predicting octopus “experiment” has the different chances for predicting each game. Because Paul the octopus only has 33% or 1/3 chance of predicting the winning team between the three options, we would just multiple another 33% or 1/3 to