...Meghan Corvington February 29. 2016 EC492 Forecasting Prof. Orlowski PROBLEM SET #1 (Due date: February 29, 2016) Use the quarterly data base from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED provided to you in the EViews program to answer the following questions: 1. Choose the real US export of goods and services (REXPGS), real import of goods and services (RIMPGS) and disposable personal income (DPI) variables. View their descriptive statistics. Analyze skewness, kurtosis and volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation) of each of them. Discuss possible economic factors underlying the data asymmetry, kurtosis and relative volatility. In this example, all three variables are left skewed, while kurtosis is between 1.99 and 2.29 for each of the three variables. I measured volatility based on the standard deviation of the three variables. DPI is extremely volatile, while RIMPGS and REXPGS are not as volatile as DPI. It seems as if there is a strong correlation between the amounts of standard deviations compared to the kurtosis. There is a lack of asymmetry between the three variables, as there is no equivalence in various measurements. | |REXPGS |RIMPGS |DPI | | Mean | 747.1115 | 962.0551 | 4682.076 | | Median | 447.5000 | 636.0000 | 3400.400...
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...Economic Forecasting ECO 372 Learning Team Date Due Instructor Economic Forecasting Introduction Economic forecasting is an important aspect of the financial world; it helps people understand how things may be in the future based on current and historic data. Many different databases are available for finding historical economic data and forecasting economic data. Topics from this week are helpful when developing an understanding of the data can help with improving the economic future of our government and organizations. This reflection will help us locate the resources available for finding economic data. Historical Data Resource The BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) yields independent budget analysis and economic issues to support congressional budget processes and conducts impartial objectives on the analysis. This would be a valuable source because it contains a large amount of information in one location. There are several divisions that collaborate to complete an accurate economic forecast which include. These divisions include national, international, regional, industry, and integrate accounts, all of which include national income and product accounts, and the gross domestic product to name a couple (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013). Current Data Resource A possible resource for current information can include the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). FRED is an online database that includes economic data from several different srouces. FRED was...
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...Economic Forecasting Ladrika Davis ECO/372 June 29, 2015 Economic Forecasting The assessment of the Historical Economic Data and Economic Forecast Data is predicted through primary sources. Subsequently, the raw data is collected and maintain by government and private agencies as; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER'S Macro-Historical Database), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In addition, the raw data is use for the purpose of measuring past relationships among variables such as historical data, employment, prices, productivity, population, government budget, and government spending. Thus, resulting in economist anticipating change in some variables; in which will either affect or not affect the future course of the U.S. economy short and long run performance. Primary Sources Therefore, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER'S Macro-Historical Database) was founded in 1920 over the years the NBER's research agenda has varied from a wide variety of issues that confront our economic society. Early research focused on the aggregate economy, examining in detail the business cycle and long-term economic growth. Whereby, its known as private, non-profit, non-partisan research organization's main aim is to promote greater understanding of how the economy works. It disseminates unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals and the academic community...
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...Economic Forecasting ECO/372 June 3, 2012 Blake Bennett Economic Forecasting FRED, Economic Time-Series Database FRED is a free economic database that compiles data from an extensive amount of data sources. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census, OECD, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the Federal Reserve System database are a few to mention. FRED also includes the national economic and financial data including interest rates, consumer price index, employment and population, and trade data. This database is a valuable source because this allows citizens to see where the country’s financial state is at. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce The Bureau of Economic Analysis is the federal agency responsible for measuring the U.S. economy, or as some say, BEA is the nation’s accountant. It is responsible for measuring what is produced, what is earned, and how it is spent. BEA is well known as one of the world’s premier economic statistical agencies, producing some of the most closely watched economic indicators and leading the way in cutting-edge macroeconomic measurement (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012). The value and usefulness of the BEA is that it pulls a wealth of data from the public and private sector and provides a consistent picture of economic activity for the nation as a whole and for various sectors. It also interacts with the rest of the world, providing data of the trades and international...
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...Reflection – Economic Forecasting Paper Sharon Hooper, Tierra Lias, Kecia Neely, Ayanna Payne, Stanley Shaw, Nathaniel Zellner ECO 372 February 19, 2014 Cynthia Cooksey Weekly Reflection – Economic Forecasting Paper Understanding the history as well as the social well-being of the world throughout the World War II era has immense importance due to the great depression faced in the United States and other countries that started just a decade before. The resource NBER Macrohistory Database would be an excellent choice to examine the economic state of some countries during and after one of the most significant wars in history. The site covers a variety of data records including business cycles, job creation, job data, and the status of import dealings, segregation, and even children’s health. The study of the causes and effects of the war are truly remarkable. A majority of the statistics were dealt with on a quantitative level with facts and little decisions of personal opinions about the war. This resource is a great source of study for the plethora of data about the world at war. The concepts pertaining to the benefits of the trade are very understandable, yet seem to be extremely selfish and somewhat cutthroat altogether. At the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand, which makes it smart business. Quantitative research provides information about the future based on past trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis generates various closely inspected economic data...
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...Purchasing Groceries The simple act of purchasing groceries is in fact not as simple as it may seem. A walk down the aisle of any grocery store reveals that we have products that come from all over the world. The prices we pay come from a variety of factors, from our trade agreements with foreign nations, whether the products we seek can be obtained locally, and the ultimate factor: price. If the government raises taxes on food items, and the income of a household is too low, then families might forego buying anything other than necessities, and shop for the lowest prices. As food is a primary need, many businesses find themselves merging to compete with such powerhouses as WalMart and Costco. Traditional supermarkets find themselves struggling as these chains take lower profit margins on groceries because food drives people into their locations. An example of this is the merging of Albertson’s and Safeway. They combined so that their purchasing power would allow them to better compete against the larger competitors. Keeping their prices lower allows them to have more business flowing through their stores. Massive Layoff of Employees Massive layoffs of employees is a consequence of recessions. As the workforce decreases as does income, demand for goods also decreases. The loss of buying power causes households to stop purchasing luxury items, and focus on necessities. Businesses in turn have less employees for production, and loss of revenue from this action. They may hold...
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...Sample questions 1. Time-series forecasting models: a. | are useful whenever changes occur rapidly and wildly | b. | are more effective in making long-run forecasts than short-run forecasts | c. | are based solely on historical observations of the values of the variable being forecasted | d. | attempt to explain the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome | e. | none of the above | 2. The forecasting technique which attempts to forecast short-run changes and makes use of economic indicators known as leading, coincident or lagging indicators is known as: a. | econometric technique | b. | time-series forecasting | c. | opinion polling | d. | barometric technique | e. | judgment forecasting | 3. The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt = a +bYt1 is an example of which forecasting technique? a. | Barometric forecasting | b. | Time-series forecasting | c. | Survey and opinion | d. | Econometric methods based on an understanding of the underlying economic variables involved | e. | Input-output analysis | 4. The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as: a. | secular trend | b. | cyclical variation | c. | seasonal effect | d. | unpredictable random factor | e. | none of the above | 5. The type of economic indicator that can best be used for business forecasting is the: a. | leading indicator |...
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...TOPIC 1. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING TOPIC I TOPIC I. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING Contents 1. Meaning of forecasting 2. Features, importance and limitations of forecasting 3. Forecast types 1. Meaning of forecasting Forecast is a likely, scientifically well-grounded opinion about the possible state of the events, objects or processes in the future. Forecasting is a process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Economic Forecasting is a process of making forecasts based on analysis of past trends and regularities of the economic processes. Economic forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation – for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit – or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific companies. Economic forecasting provides information about the potential future events and their consequences for the organization. It may not reduce the complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. Economic forecasting includes the following steps: 1. Identifying items to be forecast. The items of socio-economic forecasting are the economic processes (for example, inflation, demand, supply), any indicator describing the company activity (for example...
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...Staffing Forecasting and Planning (Book Review) ORGS 6200 MANAGING HUMAN RESOURCES Synopses: J Phillips and S Gully start this well researched and practical book by stressing the importance of workforce planning through recognizing the value of strategic staffing on the company’s ability to improve its capabilities and survive any economic environment while reducing its labor related costs as well as many other expenses indirectly associated with its employees. It is further stressed that talent and its acquisition are to be treated as investments not costs of doing business. It is argued that a single most important factor in order to ensure an organization’s strategic goals are met, is its ability to hire the right people at the right time in order to enhance the firm’s return on its investment. The authors then further expand on this theory by defining a set of common goals for staffing forecasting and planning activities that can benefit any company in any industry and economic life cycle. In addition, the book discusses the importance of understanding a company’s strategy, goals and competition in order to identify what type of talents will the firm need and when. “Ensuring that the right people are in the place at the right time, requires understanding and forecasting the firm’s labor demand and maintaining an awareness of relevant pipelines of labor supply and talent. Action plans can then be developed to address any gaps between labor supply...
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...easily, such as how long a trip would last or how many people were coming. Some things, however, needed a forecast. Was it likely to rain? What would we do if it did rain? The best plans had two essential ingredients: First, everyone worked to the same plan; second, all pertinent information was included in that plan. In the business world, there are many methods of forecasting product demand, and they must include all known information. Extrinsic forecasting methods involve factors such as economic conditions, market trends, competition, government regulations, or the sale of related goods. These techniques look for patterns or correlations linking product demand with these outside factors. Qualitative forecasting techniques most often are used for extrinsic forecasting. They are employed by senior managers and involve using good judgment, intuition, and informal opinions. Qualitative forecasting is necessary for products where no previous sales data exist. Intrinsic forecasting, on the other hand, uses data from previous sales, and the forecast is developed using that sales history. This quantitative forecasting is done by most members of a supply chain, especially those near the final consumer. Many factors can be included in the forecast along with traditional methods to improve forecast reliability. Principle 2: Forecasts must include some measure of error. The forecast is going to be wrong—but by how much? Estimates of forecast error can be made by studying past performance...
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...The Accuracy of Demand Forecasting Between Point of Sale and Order History Supply Chain Management TBS908 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Company Profile 4 3. Demand 5 3.1 Demand Forecasting 6 3.2 Demand Forecasting Methods 6 3.2.1 Opinion Polling / Qualitative Method (subjective): 6 3.2.2 Statistical Methods/Quantitative Approach (objective): 6 4. Order History Vs. Point-of-sale 8 5. Planning Promotions 8 5.1 Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High-Low Pricing Environment 9 5.1.1 Basic Household Inventory Model: 9 6. Types of demand forecast in GCC and UAE 10 7. Objective 10 8. Methodology 11 Table 3 13 Figure 1 13 9. Result 14 10. Recommendations 14 11. Conclusion: 15 11. References 16 12. Appendixes 17 Appendix I 17 Appendix II 19 1. Executive Summary Demand forecasting is essentially anticipating future prospects by reviewing historical data in the most calculated way in an uncontrollable environment. Foreseeing what and when buyers will purchase has never been a simple procedure for producers or retailers. Troubled by the overwhelming undertaking of correctly coordinating supply with interest, makers are always enhancing procedures to accomplish the most noteworthy estimate exactness that will guarantee when the customer enters a store, the item they are searching for is on the rack. This is getting significantly tricky as the uncertainty level increase. In the below report the demand...
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...be beneficial in finding out more background information. This is step 2 of the marketing model. Wilfred Construction will now be able to form hypotheses on the data they have gathered the benefit of this is that they can analyse the potential profits or losses in entering the rental market. The fourth step is to test the options, which Wilfred Constructions can do by testing the market. One way they can test the market is to produce brochures with both rental price and sales price and gauging the reaction of potential buyers or renters. With the use of brochures Wilfred’s Construction will then be able to complete step five of the model, control and review as they will get feedback from the customers as to which they prefer. 4b) Forecasting involves attempting to estimate the future level of sales, one method is extrapolation which involves trying to identify a trend and continuing it into the future. The difficulty for Wilfred Construction is that sales have steadily increased until recently then dropped with the slowdown in the housing market, a possible reason for the slowdown in sales is that the UK has gone into recession therefore fewer people are...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...Forecasting Methods Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting...
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...Distribution and Channel Management MT211 The main aim of my essay is to show my understanding of the main principles and concepts of distribution and channel management through the use of notes on Moodle, information I gathered from attending lectures and also from literature that I have read on this topic. The Supply Chain is the sequence of suppliers that contribute to the creation and delivery of a good or service to end customers, meanwhile Supply Chain Management is organizing the cost effective flow and storage of materials, in-process inventory, finished goods and related information from point of origin to point of consumption to satisfy customer requirements. A major element of the supply chain is the use of logistics which is the management of the storage and flow of goods, services and information throughout your organisation. Logistics can be broken down into three major elements, Firstly, materials management which is the sourcing and receiving of raw materials or unfinished products for subsequent use. Secondly, material flow system which can be defined as the ability to locate and schedule material through to end production and disposition, and finally the physical distribution which is the delivery of finished goods to customers. The main aim of a supply chain management is to evolve a company’s supply chain into an optimally efficient, customer-satisfying process, where the effectiveness of the whole supply chain is more important than the effectiveness of...
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