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Demand Estimation: Southern Transportation Authority

The following exercise was taken from: McGuigan, J.R., R. Ch. Moyer, and F. H. deB. Harris, Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategy, and Tactics, 9th Edition, South Western.
Early in 2011, the Southern Transportation Authority (STA), a public agency responsible for serving the commuter rail transportation needs of a large US Eastern city, was faced with raising operating deficits on its system. Also, because of a fiscal austerity program at both the federal and state levels, the hope of receiving additional support was slim.
The board of directors of STA asked the system manager to explore alternatives to alleviate the financial plight of the system. The first suggestion made by the manager was to institute a major cutback in service. This cutback would result in no service after 7:00 P.M., no service on weekends, and a reduced schedule of service during the midday period Monday through Friday. The board of STA indicated that this alternative was not likely to be politically acceptable and could only be considered as a last resort.
The board suggested that because it had been over five years since the last basic fare increase, a fare increase from the current level of $1 to a new level of $1.50 should be considered. Accordingly, the board ordered the manager to conduct a study of the likely impact on STA. These data have been collected over the past 24 years and include the following variables:

1. Riders per week in thousands
2. Price per ride (in cents)–This variable is designated P in Table 1. Price is expected to have a
negative impact on the demand for rides on the system.
3. Population in the metropolitan area serviced by STA -­‐ It is expected that this variable has a
positive impact on the demand for rides on the system. This variable is designated T in the 
Table 1.
4. Disposable per capita

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