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Suppose the government raises the legal drinking age in the UK from 18 to 21. Conduct an economic analysis of this policy to examine its impact on affected markets.

The minimum legal drinking age or MLDA is the most well studied alcohol control policy. It is a controversial problem with different empirical studies showing opposite results. In my opinion the change of age from 18 to 21 will lead to lower demand and will cause prices to go up. The consumption of alcohol affects the economy in opposite ways- every beverage sold raises the welfare but the problems coming from alcohol (deaths, injuries, crimes and reduced workforce productivity) lowers welfare. The change of the MLDA is an answer to the question whether the economy is better off with more drinking or not.
There are many studies some saying that the raise of the MLDA is going to cause more drinking. A very important thing that we mustn’t forget is the credibility of these studies. They have been carried out most of them in the 1970s and 80s and all of them in the USA. We need to consider that in the past people perceived things differently and results may not be the same today. Besides the studies were carried out in the USA which has a different culture than the UK. According to Phillip Huff (http://www.scribd.com/doc/31945082/The-21-Year-Old-Minimum-Legal-Drinking-Age-An-Economic-based-Analysis-of-Problems-with-the-MLDA-and-Potential-Solutions, page 2) the law as it is now is causing the loss of billions of dollars since people affected from the law just keep on drinking and in bigger quantities. That in itself causes more accidents and reduced working productivity which has a bad effect on welfare. This study however is almost purely theoretical and there is no empirical proof to it. In my opinion the raise of the MLDA to 21 will cause demand of alcohol to fall (table 1).

Although that will not affect the price (P) the quantity demanded (Qd) becomes smaller. That leaves the producers with two options- to either lower or increase their price. That choice depends on the price elasticity of alcohol. If alcohol is elastic then the right decision is to lower the price. Otherwise there will be a loss of quantity demanded that is too big to compensate for and the overall revenue will be smaller (table 2).

If alcohol is inelastic then the right thing to do is to increase the prices. Going for this course of action would increase their overall revenue (table 3).

So what is of importance is the price elasticity of alcohol. There are four major factors that determine the price elasticity- the availability of close substitutes, whether the product is a necessity or a luxury, the definition of the marker and the time horizon. In my opinion alcohol is an inelastic product and these determinants confirm that. I believe there are no close substitutes to alcohol, some may argue that drugs are but I disagree since they are much more expensive and cause different effects. Whether alcohol is a necessity or a luxury is a question with no synonymous answer but I would rather say it is a necessity considering the huge amount of it being bought, in 2007 in the United Kingdom it was 772ml per person per week (http://www.ic.nhs.uk/statistics-and-data-collections/health-and-lifestyles/alcohol/statistics-on-alcohol-england-2010). The third factor is the definition of the market- again in this case inelastic since it is too broad and there are no substitutes. Time horizon deals with future change of demand due to present actions. Some studies have proved that binge drinking during adolescence may mean lifetime use of alcohol (Kaestner&Yarnoff, 2009). So if the MLDA is changed to 21 that will cause less binge drinking in the future as well. Kaestner and Yarnoff have proven that earlier drinking causes 16-19% increase in binge drinking later on and 27-36% for low-educated people (page 18). The reason can be neurological or simply the fact that alcohol lowers your performance either at school or work which may lead to depression and further binge drinking.
However the change of MLDA will have another effect- the lowering of the taxation on alcohol in the long run. Every product that is deemed harmful is taxed additionally and the money doesn’t go to the government but towards fixing the problem caused by that product. Alcohol is no exception and to see how tax will change we need to understand what negative effects alcohol has. Those include deaths, injuries, commission of crime and reduced workforce productivity (http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.2.133, page 135). In the USA MLDA has been changed and Wagenaar’s study proves the inverse correlation between the legal drinking age and crashes (http://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/supportingresearch/journal/wagenaar.aspx). According to (http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.2.133) death by accidents had increased by 17% when the MLDA was lowered from 21 to 18. There is also a significant decrease in death by alcohol related illnesses like cirrhosis. Injuries and most misdemeanor crimes can hardly be put into statistics and the same goes for reduced productivity. What is important is that all these effects lower the overall welfare and are a big cause for the big taxation on alcohol. Normally tax is divided between the consumer and producer unevenly depending on the elasticity of the product. Since alcohol is inelastic it most of the tax will be paid by the consumer (table 4).

Hence the new policy will cause a rise in economic surplus, especially the consumer surplus, since the price will go down. The price is still higher than it used to be and this will cause a deadweight loss (table 5). This is the amount of money that society loses.

Alcohol causes changes in the economy not only by itself but by affecting other complement products as well. The change in MLDA is going to decrease the market for alcohol-related medicine. But it’s biggest and by far the most important effect is going to be on pubs, bars and especially discos. It is not a stretch to say that this change may cause many discos to go bankrupt since a huge part of their customers is 18-21 year olds. Bars and pubs have more varied customers when it comes to age but will also lose a significant number of visitors. Another market that may be affected is the smuggling of alcohol. Since the price has gone up and people aged less than 21 cannot drink that will surely promote those kinds of illegal activities. To sum up, I believe the change in the Minimum Legal Drinking Age or MLDA is going to have a big effect on the market. Demand is going to go down which will make prices go up due to the inelasticity of alcohol. However taxes on alcohol will become smaller which will again make alcohol cheaper. In my opinion the change in MLDA depends on the resulting difference in welfare. As soon as there is a significant effect that shows whether welfare has gone up or down perhaps most countries will change their policies as well.

References:
Carpenter, C. & Dobkin, C. (2011) “The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Public Health”, Spring. Downloaded from http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.2.133 as at 25 November 2011
Huff, P. (2009)”The 21-year old minimum legal drinking age. An Economic-based Analysis of Problems with the MLDA and Potential Solutions, 18th December. Downloaded from http://www.scribd.com/doc/31945082/The-21-Year-Old-Minimum-Legal-Drinking-Age-An-Economic-based-Analysis-of-Problems-with-the-MLDA-and-Potential-Solutions as at 25th November 2011
Kaestner, R. & Yarnoff, B. (2009) “Long Term Effects of Minimum Legal Drinking Age Laws on Adult Alcohol Use and Driving fatalities”, October. Downloaded from http://www.nber.org/papers/w15439.pdf as at 25 November 2011
Statistics on alcohol, England 2010, tables. Downloaded from http://www.ic.nhs.uk/statistics-and-data-collections/health-and-lifestyles/alcohol/statistics-on-alcohol-england-2010 as at 25 November 2011
Wagenaar, A. & Toomey, T. (2000)”Effects of Minimum Drinking Age Laws: Review and Analyses of the Literature from the 1960 to 2000”. Downloaded from http://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/supportingresearch/journal/wagenaar.aspx as at 25th November 2011

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