...Efficient Market Hypothesis: Examining the Case of South Asian Stock Markets Sharon Prakash Abstract This study examines the relevance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis among emerging stock markets belonging to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) and the Global economy. The study employs daily closing prices of eminent market indices from a time period 2004-2013.The stock returns have been subjected to unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller test and a panel unit root test. Additionally the existence of random walk for these stock markets has also been examined through the Jarque-Bera statistic. The results indicate information inefficiency in the time period under study for all indices. Investors can therefore predict future prices on the basis of historical information, and receive excessive returns. The results have implications for developing economies wherein the government has to ensure that all asset related information be made public, to curb state interference. Introduction The concept of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) holds special importance in the field of Finance, especially Capital markets. This hypothesis postulates that markets are informationally efficient. This asserts that the price of any security will fully reflect all the information that is available to the investors. That being said, one cannot consistently achieve returns that are excess of the average market returns on...
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...Weak- Form Market Efficiency of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh ABU TAHER MOLLIK Economics & Finance, Regional School of Business, Faculty of Law and Management, La-Trobe University, Bendigo, VIC 3550, Australia. Email:abumollik@yahoo.com.au; a.mollik@latrobe.edu.au M KHOKAN BEPARI PhD Student School of Commerce and Marketing Faculty of Arts, Business, Informatics and Education Central Queensland University, Australia Email: k.bepari@cqu.edu.au; khokan552@yahoo.com Phone:+610402917968 Weak Form Market Efficiency of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh Abstract This paper examines the weak-form efficiency in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) of Bangladesh adjusting for thin trading problem. Both non-parametric tests and parametric tests are used. The data sets consist of daily DSE General Index (DSE-GEN) and DSE 20 Index for the period ranging from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007. The results of the study reveal that DSE return series are not normally distributed. Both the return series are stationary and do not follow a random walk. Overall, the study rejects the weak form efficiency of DSE. Key words: Efficient Market Hypothesis; Dhaka Stock Exchange; Random Walk Model; Weak Form of Efficiency; Return autocorrelation. JEL classification: G14, N25, G 34 Weak Form Market Efficiency of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh 1. Introduction The theory of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) proposed by Fama (1965) was a ‘water...
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...International Journal of Business and Management March, 2009 Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries Md. Mahmudul Alam (Corresponding author) CRM, Marketing Division, Grameenphone Ltd 47 Shantinarar, Dhaka 1217, Bangladesh Tel: 880-1711-503-782 E-mail: rony000@gmail.com Md. Gazi Salah Uddin Department of Business Administration East West University 43, Mohakhali C/A, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh E-mail: rimsust2002@yahoo.com Abstract Stock exchange and interest rate are two crucial factors of economic growth of a country. The impacts of interest rate on stock exchange provide important implications for monitory policy, risk management practices, financial securities valuation and government policy towards financial markets. This study seeks evidence supporting the existence of share market efficiency based on the monthly data from January 1988 to March 2003 and also shows empirical relationship between stock index and interest rate for fifteen developed and developing countries- Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippine, S. Africa, Spain, and Venezuela. Stationarity of market return is tested and found none of this stock market follows random walk model, means not efficient in weak form. To investigate the reasons of market inefficiency, relationship between share price and interest rate, and changes of share price and changes of interest...
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...Financial market is composed of different markets- Money Market, Capital Market, Derivative Market etc. All the markets play an interactive role for the development of economy by formation of capital through mobilizing funds, industrialization of economy through supplying adequate funds, providing services, linking investors to the industrial entrepreneurs etc. Besides, this requires sound regulatory framework, sound and investment sensitive administrative infrastructure, fiscal supports for making their role effective for economic development. Bond market in Bangladesh: The financial sector of Bangladesh is characterized by the dominating presence of commercial banks, especially the Nationalized Commercial Banks (NCBs). Although, a paradigm shift in the degree of dominance has been observed of late with the emergence of private commercial banks-traditional and shariah based banking. Banking sector accounted for about 75 percent of the total financial system. Most of the available funds go to the NCBs in the form of deposits and channeled into lending. However, the NCBs had substantial nonperforming loan (NPL) portfolios. Both insurance and mutual funds industries are very small. The debt market being an integral part of financial market plays a complementary role in developing economy through allocation of funds to the different deficit sectors. The debt market consists of money market, mortgage market, bond market and derivative market. The debt market of Bangladesh is very...
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...Executive Summary Over the last few years, the capital market of Bangladesh has witnessed a haughty growth which is not in line of development in the real sector of the economy. Although, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Bangladesh has tried to correct the irregular behavior observed in the market, very often it is argued that lack of proper and firm decisions from the regulator’s side has contributed to make the market more unstable rather than to reduce it. The paper attempts to identify the inter relationship between the capital market and money market. The Capital Market of Bangladesh is passing tough times since December 2010 as high volatility is eroding the capital of Thousands of Investors that might turn into social instability. This fall is caused by many factors that I tried to identify and tried to link up between causal factors of market crash and regulatory failure and also tried to find out the inter-relationship between capital market and money market. Primary issue related problems was faulty listing methods and IPO overpricing, few numbers of new listings, revaluating assets before company listing, high premium in issuance of right share/Repeat IPO etc. while secondary market related problems was stock splits and stock price manipulations through block trading, circular trading and insider trading. Investor’s greed and irrational behavior played a big rule to make the stock prices sky rocking as they were crazy to buy shares without judging...
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...overview – Banking sector & Stock Exchange and Conceptual framework – Macroeconomic variable |3.1 An overview of Banking sector and Stock market of Bangladesh | We are interested in investigating the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables because individual investors can earn abnormal profits by exploiting this relationship and the existence of this utilizable opportunity would then dangerously distort the market’s ability to proficiently allocate scarce resources. In other word, the stock market will lose its informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is defined as at any given time, stock prices fully reflect all available information of the market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Identifying the relationship or informational efficiency thus can be used to correct the current economic stabilization policies. Therefore, the issue of whether stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related or not have received considerable attention. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between stock prices with each of the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply variables and so on. The knowledge of the prevailing relationship between stock prices one the one hand, and micro variables like market price/ earnings, growth...
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...of capital market in Bangladesh mainly started with the beginning of trading activities of Dhaka Stock Exchange. It first incorporated as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Association Ltd in 28 April 1954 and started formal trading in 1956. It was renamed as East Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd in 23 June 1962. Again in 13 May 1964 it was renamed as Dacca Stock Exchange Ltd. After the liberation war in 1971 the trading was discontinued for five years. In 1976 trading restarted in Bangladesh. In 16 September 1986 was started. The formula for calculating DSE all share price index was changed according to IFC in 1 November 1993. The automated trading was initiated in 10 August 1998. In 1 January 2001 was started. Central Depository System was initiated in 24 January 2004. As of November 16, 2009, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) crossed 4000 points for the first time, because of the debut of Grameen Phone in DSE. From the year 2007 the market capitalization is growing at a constant pace. The market is growing both in capitalization and trading volume. The growth is fueled by increased demand for financial assets and influx of liquid money. The growth is outpacing the growth of the national economy. Sudden rise of capitalization in DSE has raised the question, whether the growth has been healthy and market is functioning in a justifiable manner. [pic] Because economic development of a country is deeply related the development of country. If the market grows and...
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...0930274530 | Yakin Reza | 0930042030 | Naima Rahman | 0930283030 | Date of Submission: August 08, 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS | | | Executive Summary | 03 | Introduction | 04 | Objective | 04 | Asset Allocation | 05 | Macroeconomic & Industrial Scene | 07 | Diversification | 07 | Trading Strategies & Economic Rationale for Selecting Stocks | 07 | Portfolio Performance | 10 | Holding Period Return | 13 | Portfolio Risk & Return | 14 | Security Market Line | 15 | Lessons Learned from Trading | 16 | Conclusion | 17 | References | 18 | Appendix | 19 | Executive Summary The investment simulation project is a fictitious investment in the Dhaka Stock Exchange that started from June 4, 2012 and ended on August 01, 2012 over a period of two months and separated in three phases. The initial investment in the portfolio was around BDT 1,000,000. The objective of the project was to maximize the after tax wealth through a well diversified portfolio. Given the consistent market fall at the Dhaka Stock Exchange since our investment period, we could not profit from the investment, nevertheless, we were able to improve performance over time with the help of the knowledge on finance and investment. In the first phase (June 4 – June 21) of the project we invested the amount totaling to BDT 999,203 in 15 companies from 11 different industries. We made our investment...
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...RECENT TRENDS IN CAPITAL MARKET OF BANGLADESH: CRITICAL EVALUATION OF REGULATION by Syed Golam Shahjarul Alam A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Professional Master in Banking and Finance Examination Committee: Dr. Sundar Venkatesh (Chairperson) Dr. Winai Wongsurawat Dr. Yuosre Badir Nationality: Previous Degree: Bangladeshi Master of Business Administration University of Dhaka Dhaka, Bangladesh Bangladesh Bank (Central Bank of Bangladesh) Scholarship Donor: Asian Institute of Technology School of Management Thailand May2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My greatest Gratitude is given to Dr. Sundar Venkatesh, my project advisor, for his deep insight in capital market, which helped me to accomplish the project paper. His dedication towards teaching, motivating and supervising influenced me greatly, leading to do my project work carefully and seriously. I wish to express my deepest gratitude and appreciation to Bangladesh Bank, My office, for granting me a scholarship, to pursue my Masters in banking and finance. I express my gratitude and deepest appreciation to my friend Ms. Senjuti binte rafiq, My Colleagues in Bangladesh Bank and DSE Library staffs who helped me by providing valuable suggestions and necessary data for my analysis. I am very much thankful to Dr. Winai Wongsurawat and Dr. Juthathip Jongwanich for their valuable suggestions regarding my project. I express my gratitude and deepest appreciation to Ms...
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...RECENT TRENDS IN CAPITAL MARKET OF BANGLADESH: CRITICAL EVALUATION OF REGULATION by Syed Golam Shahjarul Alam A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Professional Master in Banking and Finance Examination Committee: Dr. Sundar Venkatesh (Chairperson) Dr. Winai Wongsurawat Dr. Yuosre Badir Nationality: Previous Degree: Bangladeshi Master of Business Administration University of Dhaka Dhaka, Bangladesh Bangladesh Bank (Central Bank of Bangladesh) Scholarship Donor: Asian Institute of Technology School of Management Thailand May2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My greatest Gratitude is given to Dr. Sundar Venkatesh, my project advisor, for his deep insight in capital market, which helped me to accomplish the project paper. His dedication towards teaching, motivating and supervising influenced me greatly, leading to do my project work carefully and seriously. I wish to express my deepest gratitude and appreciation to Bangladesh Bank, My office, for granting me a scholarship, to pursue my Masters in banking and finance. I express my gratitude and deepest appreciation to my friend Ms. Senjuti binte rafiq, My Colleagues in Bangladesh Bank and DSE Library staffs who helped me by providing valuable suggestions and necessary data for my analysis. I am very much thankful to Dr. Winai Wongsurawat and Dr. Juthathip Jongwanich for their valuable suggestions regarding my project. I express my gratitude and deepest appreciation to Ms...
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...Working Paper 3/2010 Investment Climate Series Investment Climate in Bangladesh: Enhanced Role of the Capital Market Dr. Prashanta K. Banerjee Md. Mohiuddin Siddique Economic Research Group Working paper No: 3/2010 Investment Climate Series Investment Climate in Bangladesh: Enhanced Role of the Capital Market Authors Dr. Prashanta Kumer Banerjee1 Mohiuddin Siddique2 Mentors Mohammad Musa Ph.D3 Farook Chowdhury4 ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP JUNE 2010 1 Senior Associate Professor, Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), Dhaka 2 Associate Professor, BIBM, Dhaka 3 Professor of Finance, School of Business, United International University 4 Program Manager, BMB Mott MacDonald, Dhaka. Published By Economic Research Group (ERG), Dhaka, Bangladesh The papers in this series are published as part of contract under the Small Grants Program, implemented by ERG and BMB Mott MacDonald and supported by the Bangladesh Investment Climate Fund (BICF). BICF is managed by IFC, in partnership with the U.K. Department for International Development and the European Union. Details about the program can be found at http://www.ergonline.org/ifc/index_of_SGAPP.html © Dr. Prashanta Kumer Banerjee, Mohiuddin Siddique, 2010 This publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted for research and academic works without prior permission of the publisher or the author(s) but proper acknowledgement must be given...
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...Consequences and Cures of Stock Market Crash 2011: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange’ you asked us to conduct. Working on a practical field with theories helped us to build our theories strong and specific. We believe that this report will help the reader to know about the causes and consequences of the stock market crash. During preparing this report we have enforced our best effort. Surely, it enriches our knowledge and promotes our study. Thank you for giving us such an opportunity for working on the topic. We will be honored to provide you any additional information, if necessary. Respectfully, Taher Jamil (On behalf of the group) Executive Summary Between July and December 1996, the Bangladesh capital market experienced an unprecedented surge in market prices and volume of activity. It was not 1996 but 2011, which will be recalled for bubble burst of capital market. January 10, 2011 is another black day for capital market history of Bangladesh. For the first hour of trading, the DSE general index dropped to 660.43 points or a record 9.25 per cent, the highest single day fall of our capital market. CSE also observed similar fall in stock prices. Portfolios of most of the investors have been reduced significantly following such dripping of Index. The regulators who were earlier frequently imposing several rules, regulations to make the market vibrant had to withdraw these rules after such fall. Market investors in panic started...
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...AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE A thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of COMMONWEALTH EXECUTIVE MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Institute of Distance Learning, KNUST JUNE, 2011 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this submission is my own work toward the Commonwealth Executive Master of Business Administration and that, to the best of my knowledge, it contains no material previously published by another person nor material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree of the University except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text. RANSFORD CHARLES ENYAAH (STUDENT ID No: 20103521) …………………… Signature …………………. Date Certified by: EDWARD ACHEAMPONG (SUPERVISOR) …………………… Signature …………………. Date Certified by: ……………………………… Head of IDL …………………… Signature …………………. Date i DEDICATION I dedicate this project work to the Lord Almighty and all my loved ones. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I thank the almighty God for fulfilling his promises to my life and for granting me the strength, wisdom and knowledge to complete this work My profound gratitude goes to my Supervisor, Mr. Edward Acheampong (Lecturer, Methodist University College, Ghana) for his unflinching dedication...
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...Forwarding Letter To Course Instructor Anup Kumar Saha Lecturer, Department Of Business Administration. ASA UNIVERSITY BANGLADESH Subject: Submission of Report. Dear Sir, Here is the report that you have assigned us to prepare on summary of corporate finance. In the preparation of this report, I try to utilize the various related issues that are relevant for corporate finance. However, it is an educational and interesting report. I am very much delighted to be able to work on such a report and learned a lot. FROM, MD.ARIFUL ISLAM ID NO-103-14-0070. SECTION-A. REPORT ON CORPORATE FINANCE Cost of capital The cost of capital is a term used in the field of financial investment to refer to the cost of a company's funds (both debt and equity), or, from an investor's point of view "the shareholder's required return on a portfolio of all the company's existing securities". It is used to evaluate new projects of a company as it is the minimum return that investors expect for providing capital to the company, thus setting a benchmark that a new project has to meet. Cost of debt The cost of debt is computed by taking the rate on a risk free bond whose duration matches the term structure of the corporate debt, then adding a default premium. This default premium will rise as the amount of debt increases (since, all other things being equal, the risk rises as the amount of debt rises). Since in most cases debt expense is...
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... Topic: Bond Market In Bangladesh . Course Code :FIN-361. Course Title :Corporate Finance . Submitted To : MD.Nazmul Hasan. Faculty, School of Business, University of Information Technology & Sciences Submitted By : NAME ID Nazibur Rahman : 08410105 Abdullah- al Zihad : 08510061 Qazi Ismat Ahmed Rushe’d Chowdhery : 08410106 Date of Submission : 14th December, 2010. Executive Summary The bond market is a financial market where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually in the form of bonds. Like emerging-market countries around the world, Bangladesh could benefit from having a local-currency, fixed-income securities market. At present, its main fixed-income financial products are bank deposits, bank loans, government savings certificates, term loans, treasury bills, and government bonds and corporate debt (syndicated loans, private placement, and debentures). But in general the corporate debt market is still very small compared with the equity market. Numerous factors in Bangladesh today suggest that Bangladesh will not be able to develop an active, local-currency fixed-income market. In this paper, we will discuss the current situation of our bond market, what the drawbacks are and what may be the remedy for overcoming these drawbacks. Bangladesh's bond market represents the...
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