...of history, magical thinking, quasimagical thinking, attention anomalies, the availability heuristic, culture and social contagion, and global culture. Theories of human behavior from psychology, sociology, and anthropology have helped motivate much recent empirical research on the behavior of financial markets. In this paper I will survey both some of the most significant theories (for empirical finance) in these other social sciences and the empirical finance literature itself. Particular attention will be paid to the implications of these theories for the efficient markets hypothesis in finance. This is the hypothesis that financial prices efficiently incorporate all public information and that prices can be regarded as optimal estimates of true investment value at all times. The efficient markets hypothesis in turn is based on more primitive notions that people behave rationally, or accurately maximize expected utility, and are able to process all available information. The idea behind the term “efficient markets hypothesis,” a term coined by Harry Roberts (1967),1 has a long history in financial research, a far longer history than the term itself has. The hypothesis (without the words This paper was prepared for John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, Editors, Handbook of Macroeconomics. An earlier version was presented...
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...Introduction Efficient market hypothesis is widely accepted by academic community as a cornerstone of modern financial theory. Fama (1970) gives detailed definition of this theory and states that efficient market is a market that stock prices quickly and fully reflect all available and newly released information, where majority of participants are rational in their decision making process and where an investor is not able to outperform the market through any analyses, because of actual price of stock shows its intrinsic value. Naturally such revolutionary hypothesis did not occur suddenly. In 1990 Louis Bachelier in his "Theory of Speculation" paragraph gave definition of informational efficiency of the market. This study was not being developed until 1953 when Maurice Kendall who postulated that stock prices movement follow the random walk theory. Further enhancement of these studies associated with the name of Eugene Fama who gave comprehensive resume of efficient market hypothesis, as well as empirical evidences to support it and defined three form of efficient market: weak, semi-strong and strong in 1970 (Dimson and Mussavian, 1998). Later several different researches have been carried out by financial academics which continuously underpinned efficient market hypothesis. Consequently this theory began widely use by investors for investment decision making process. However only after two decades this hypothesis began less dominance in the market. Several crashes, changing...
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...1. Explain what efficient market hypothesis is. ` In a simple statement, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) means that security prices fully reflect all available information (Fama, 1991). There are three forms of EMH. Weak Form EMH Semi-Strong Form EMH Strong Form EMH • All past prices of a stock are reflected in today's stock price. • Technical analysis cannot be used to predict and beat a market. • All public information is calculated into a stock's current share price. • Neither fundamental nor technical analysis can be used to achieve superior gains. • All information in a market, whether public or private, is accounted for in a stock price. • Not even insider information could give an investor the advantage. Adapted from http://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/securities-markets/weak-semistrong-strong-emh-efficient-market-hypothesis.asp#axzz27eAhlXfl The assumptions behind this hypothesis are; 1. A large number of profit-maximising participants analyse and value securities independently. 2. News regarding securities comes to the market randomly and independently. 3. Trading decisions of all the investors adjust security prices rapidly to reflect the effect of new information. . 2. Link it to the idea of the fully revealing rational expectations equilibria. The EMH is the application of Rational Expectations Theory by Muth (1961). Assuming there is only one equilibrium price, it states that outcomes do not differ systematically from what...
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...September 2002 pp. 233–243 COMMENTARY The “Incomplete Revelation Hypothesis” and Financial Reporting Robert J. Bloomfield Robert J. Bloomfield is an Associate Professor at Cornell University. INTRODUCTION The most common form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) states that market prices fully reflect all publicly available information (Fama 1970). The EMH has been highly influential among academics, but practitioners and regulators appear unconvinced. Investors work hard to identify mispriced stocks on the basis of public data, or pay others to do so, even though the EMH asserts that such efforts are wasted. Managers seek to boost stock prices by hiding bad news in footnotes, and regulators work hard to defeat such efforts, even though the EMH asserts that information is reflected in prices no matter how obscure its presentation. Beliefs about inefficiency play a central role in the debate over recognizing expenses for incentive stock options. Opponents of expensing argue that the resulting lower net income will inappropriately reduce market prices, while proponents argue the market does not fully recognize compensation costs reported only in footnotes. In efficient markets, however, expensing these costs has no direct effect on prices, as long as the details of the compensation are included in footnotes. The decision to expense option costs could reduce stock price indirectly, even in efficient markets, by affecting the terms of contracts between the reporting firm and...
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...02-19-2014 FINMAN 5B 1:30-2:30 MWF D522 “TESTS AND RESULTS IN EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS” a.) Weak Form EMH -Tests of “Statistical memory” in security prices and returns Statistical tests of independence between rates of return: * Autocorrelation tests- it is mostly support the weak-form EMH and indicates that price changes are random and some studies using more securities and more complicated tests cast some doubt. *Runs tests – it indicates randomness in prices -Tests of Trading rules Comparison of trading rules to a buy-and-hold policy * Some filter rules seem yield above-average profits with small filters, but only before taking into account the substantial transactions costs involved * Trading rule results have been mixed, and most have not been able to beat a buy-and-hold policy Problems with tests: *Cannot be definitive since trading rules can be complex and there are too many to test them all *Testing constraints- it use only publicly available data, it should include all transactions costs and it should adjust the results for risk (an apparently successful strategy may just be a very risky strategy). Results generally support the weak-form EMH, but results are not unanimous- it shows that some strategies too subjective to test and not all trading rules are disclosed. b.) Semi Strong Form EMH -Tests often involve “market-adjusted returns” It is created by subtracting the market return from the security’s return, thereby defining a security’s...
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...Efficient Market Hypothesis * EMH emerged in the 1950s due to early application of computers in analysis of time series behaviour of economic variables. * The general idea of EMH is that markets incorporate all available information into all prices and the assumptions are that there is elimination of riskless profit opportunities and all prices of stocks are equal to their fundamental value and we have Rational expectations: agents use optimal forecasts based on all information available so as to minimise the forecast error. * In 1970 Eugine Fama defined EMH and divided it into 3 main forms. There are three main forms of EMH that are usually tested by researchers. * Weak form states that past prices have no influence on current prices or in other words it is impossible to use past information to predict future prices since all this info is already priced into stocks * Semi strong form states that market efficiency takes into account all publicly available information, past and present, such as financial reports, public announcements * Strong form states that all information, including that of insiders is reflected in prices and therefore cannot be useful in price forecasting * Early tests which focus on the performance of investment analysts and mutual funds tend to support the EMH in that past good performance does not indicate that an advisor or mutual fund will perform well in the future. For example – Jensen (1967) measures the predictive...
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...ASSIGNMENT OF INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) SUBMITTED TO DR. NIAMAT KHAN SUBMITTED BY SSH SHAYKH ROLL NO: 04 INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDY UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Has been consented as one of the cornerstones of modern financial economics. Fama first defined the term "efficient market" in financial literature in 1965 as one in which security prices fully reflect all available information. The market is efficient if the reaction of market prices to new information should be immediate and impartial. Efficient market hypothesis is the initiative that information is quickly, and efficiently integrated into asset prices at any position in time, so that old information cannot be used to foretell future price movements. Therefore, three versions of EMH are being notable depends on the level of available information. TYPES OF Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Weak form EMH The current asset prices already imitate past price and volume information. The information enclosed in the past succession of prices of a security is completely reflected in the current market price of that security. It is named weak form because the security prices are the most publicly and easily available pieces of information. It implies that no one should be able to smash the market using something that "everybody else knows". Yet, there are still numbers of financial researchers who are studying the past stock price cycle...
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...Developed and Developing Equity Markets Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah Assistant Professor-Finance, Department of Business Administration Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University Islamabad E-mail: zulfiqar.shah@gmail.com Muhammad Husnain Ph.D Scholar (Finance) Mohammad Ali Jinnah University Islamabad Email: Husnain_ctn@yahoo.com Abstract Financial economists have continuously questioned the efficient market hypothesis especially in last decade. Major part of discussion is whether the equity markets are efficient and if not then up to what extent one can forecast the meaningful future movement of equity prices. On one side there are believers of random walk and contrary there are followers of chartist theories. Those who negate the random walk suggested that there exist anomalies in the equity markets and hence are not perfectly efficient. The major objective of this study is to check the weak form of efficiency and presence of calendar anomalies in equity markets of developing and developed countries. On the basis of most recent and relatively longer horizon (14 Year) data on daily basis and a range of powerful econometrics this study suggested that in broader sense both of developed and developing equity markets are weak form inefficient. Hence there is no remarkable difference in term of market efficiency in equity markets of developed and developing countries. Hence one can reject the random walk hypothesis and therefore presence of markets efficiency is again a matter...
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...that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.” ------------------------------------------------- This report will analysis the statement by Warren Buffett, and it considers the contrasting evidence on the validity of the observation on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. The report briefly outlines the forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the report also analysis’s the evidence both seminal and recent on the theory relating to the three forms of the hypothesis. It also examines the theoretical role and motivation of analysts in creating market efficiency; lastly it looks at alternative perspectives on the pricing of securities. Introduction In 1984 Warren Buffett penned an article titled “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”, based on a speech he had given on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of his mentor Ben Graham’s legendary textbook, Security Analysis. In it, Buffett rejected the then growing (and now entrenched) view in academia that markets are ''efficient'' because ''stock prices reflect everything that is known about a company’s prospects and about the state of the economy.'' Warren Buffett argued against EMH, saying the preponderance of value investors among the world's best money managers rebuts the claim of EMH proponents that luck is the reason some investors appear more successful than others. (Hoffman, 2010) This report will either agree with Buffet or somewhat sit on the fence. A market is said...
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...THE EVOLUTION OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY OVER TIME: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE Kian-Ping Lim Universiti Malaysia Sabah and Monash University and Robert Brooks Monash University Background This paper provides an insight into the empirical literature as pertains the evolution of stock market efficiency over time, with a keen focus on the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The authors provide a systematic review of the correlation between several financial factors namely: Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), Evolving Return Predictability, Stock markets and Weak-form EMH. The authors pay keen attention on how return predictability from past price changes is affected by key players and determinants on the stock markets. From the survey they conduct, the posit that the bulk of the empirical studies examine whether the stock market under study is or is not weak-form efficient in the absolute sense, assuming that the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. The authors acknowledge that one field that has drawn extensive investigation by scholars and other players alike is the predictability of stock returns on the basis of past price changes. This is partly due to its direct implication on weak-form market efficiency. They find that a vast majority of the literature implicitly assumes the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. However, the possibility...
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...Chapter 7 - Positive Theory Positive Accounting Theory Philosophy of PAT Million Friedman championed positive theories in economics. He stated that: (part 3 Empirical Research in Accounts of Accounting theory from Jayne Godfrey) The ultimate goal of positive science (i.e. INDUCTIVE) is • The development of a ‘theory ‘ or ‘hypothesis’; • that yields valid and meaningful “Predictions’ • about phenomena not yet “observed”. Consistent with Friedman’s view, Watts and Zimmerman asserts that: The objective of “positive accounting theory” is to “explain” and “predict” accounting practice. • “Explanation” means providing reasons for observed practice. For example, positive accounting theory seeks to explain why firms continue to use historical cost accounting and why certain firms switch between a numbers of accounting techniques. • “Prediction” of accounting practice means that the theory predicts “unobserved phenomena”. Watts and Zimmerman start their book with a fundamental statement of The Role of Theory (Chapter 1).They asserts that the objective of positive accounting theory is to explain and predict accounting practice,(p.2) “Unobserved phenomena” are not necessarily future phenomena; they include phenomena that have occurred, but on which systematic evidence has not been collected. For example – Predicting the reaction of firms to a proposed accounting standard and an explanation of why firms would lobby for and against...
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...create passively managed mutual funds that are based on market indices, known as index funds. Advocates claim that index funds routinely beat a large majority of actively managed mutual funds (this is proved by the graph provided); one study claimed that over time, the average actively managed fund has returned 1.8% less than the S&P 500 index - a result nearly equal to the average expense ratio of mutual funds (fund expenses are a drag on the funds' return by exactly that ratio). Since index funds attempt to replicate the holdings of an index, they obviate the need for active management, and have a lower churn rate. 2. Is the graph consistent or inconsistent with market efficiency? Explain carefully. The graph is consistent with market efficiency. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future. Market efficiency hypothesis is the simple statement that security prices fully reflect all available information. A precondition for this strong version of the hypothesis is that information and trading costs, the costs of getting prices to reflect information, are always 0. A weaker and economically more sensible version of the efficiency hypothesis says that prices reflect information to the point where...
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...October 28, 2011 The Efficient-Market Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis Burton G. Malkiel* Abstract The world-wide financial crisis of 2008-2009 has left in its wake severely damaged economies in the United States and Europe. The crisis has also shaken the foundations of modern-day financial theory, which rested on the proposition that our financial markets were basically efficient. Critics have even suggested that the efficient--market–hypotheses (EMH) was in large part, responsible for the crises. This paper argues that the critics of EMH are using a far too restrictive interpretation of what EMH means. EMH does not imply that asset prices are always “correct.” Prices are always wrong, but no one knows for sure if they are too high or too low. EMH does not imply that bubbles in asset prices are impossible nor does it deny that environmental and behavioral factors cannot have profound influences on required rates of return and risk premiums. At its core, EMH implies that arbitrage opportunities for riskless gains do not exist in an *Princeton University. I am indebted to Alan Blinder and to the participants in the Russell Sage Conference on Economic Lessons From the Financial Crisis for extremely helpful comments. 2 efficiently functioning market and if they do appear from time to time that they do not persist. The evidence is clear that this version of EMH is strongly supported by the data. EMH can comfortably coexist with behavior finance, and the insights of Hyman...
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...QUESTION 8. 10 points Use the data in nyse.dta to answer these questions. Our goal here is to test the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH). The strict form of the efficient markets hypothesis states that information observable to the market prior to week t should not help predict the return in week t. The EMH presumes that any such investment opportunities will be noticed and will disappear almost instantaneously. One simple way to test this is to specify the AR(1) model returnt = ß0 + ß1return t-1 + ut as the alternative. Then, the null hypothesis is easily stated as H: ß0 = 0 Compute weekly returns in nyse.dta are computed using data from January 1976 through March 1989. The close at the next trading day was used. Consider a special form of heteroskedasticity common in financial data, that of auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) a way of describing volatility in market returns. QUESTION 9: 5 points Estimate the following equation, where us is the residuals from the AR(1) model given above: U2 = ß0 + ß1return t-1 + ut Let there be the fitted values from this equation (the estimates of the conditional variance). How many of are negative? QUESTION 10 5 points Add to the model return2t-1 and again compute the fitted values h1. Are any h1 negative? Why is the sign important? QUESTION 11 5 points. Use the from the model relating the variance in the error to the return in the last week and the return in the last week squared and estimate by weighted least...
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...CHAPTER 11 Efficient Markets and Behavioral Finance Answers to Problem Sets 1. c 2. Weak, semistrong, strong, strong, weak. 3. a. False b. False c. True d. False e. False f. True 4. a. False - In what kind of markets do financing decisions occur? Investment Decisions occur where? b. False - c. True – what information do stocks not reflect? d. False- returns are the same for what kind of stocks? 5. 6 - (-.2 + 1.45 X 5) = -1.05%. 6. a. True b. False c. True d. True – can managers increase EPS? 7. Decrease. The stock price already reflects an expected 25% increase. The 20% increase conveys bad news relative to expectations. 8. a. Executives should not plan on issuing shares based on apparent trends or cycles in their company’s stock price. b. Executives can observe their company’s stock price change and use the change as a reliable source of market-based information about the future prospects of the company. Stock price changes are the best forecast of a company’s future earnings as well as the best forecast future industry earnings. c. A financial manager evaluating the creditworthiness of a large customer could check the customer’s stock price and the yield on its debt. A falling stock price or a high yield could indicate trouble ahead. d. Don’t...
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