EL NINO AND INDIA:
“A forecast is a forecast,It’s a guarantee , Climate is what you expect, Weather is what you get”…….this is often said byt the El Nino Researchers.El Nino is an example which says that nature is beyond the human control. It teaches us to work according to the rhythm of nature. El Nino is neither a disaster ,nor a bad fate. It is an interplay between ocean and atmosphere. According to wikipeadia El Nino is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the pacific coast of South America. El Nino happens to intervals of 2 -3 years and lasts for 9 months. El NINO is divided into two categories .One is EL Nino condition. When the period of ELNino continues for 7 to 9months , it is ELNino conditions and when it exceeds more than that period it is said to be EL Nino episodes.
The signs of El Nino is the rise of surface water in Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia. To know vividly about El Nino it is necessary to know about certain words, like Southern Oscillation, Walker circulation. The Southern Oscilliation is the atmospheric component of El Nino. This component is an oscilliation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and western pacific ocean waters. Walker cell is a conceptual model of the air flow in the troposphere. Parcels of air flow in a closed circulation in the zonal and vertical direction. During the El Nino condition the Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds that move water and air warmed by the sun towards the west.
Indian Monsoon plays a great role in Indian agriculture ,culture and along with social economic issues of India.Indian monsoon brings rain in India.It is also unpredictable like El Nino.Indian Monsoon is divided into two categories and they are;North East Monsoon,South WestMonsoon.South West monsoon often comes during the end of summer.“Sujalam suphalam malayaja sitalam sashay shyamalam mataram”…..from our childhood it is the prayer we pray .As we grow up so we understand the meaning of this line.India is principally an agricultural country. Rather we can say that being Indians we are lucky that our motherland can feed us from her own hand. She needs not to borrow from other country. In many countries in middle east they have to buy foods from other countries.The GDP of India depend s on agriculture. India is producing 25million tonesof food grain,100MT of rice,90MT of wheat,35million bales of cotton,and more than 18 MT of pulses. Large part of agriculture comes from good monsoon. Bad monsoon always leave a bad impact on agriculture. Improved irrigation and electricity programmes have reduced the dependency on Indian monsoon .The Hydel Power Generation,the ground water level,and its recharge depends on good monsoon.
Many researches are done regarding to the interrelataions between Indian Monsoon and ElNino events.The variability of Indian Summer monsoon rainfalls has been linked to variations of sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific and Indian monsoon,Eurasian snow cover etc.Most of the droughts in India caused through El Nino.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has predicted that 2014 could be an EL Nino year.Indian Weather forecaster Indian Meteorology Department and private forecaster Skymet have also made predictions that EL Nino could affect the rain of July 2014.
This climate change will effect the agriculture of India in every aspect.If we take the semi -arid regions temperatures are naturally higher than other regions.Rainfalls often occur between 300—700 mm in a year. Rise in temperature and less in rainfall will hit the cropping pattern of that region. The northern arid regions in India comprise largely of the desert of Rajasthan, the Rann of Kutch and the semi-arid regions of Punjab and Gujarat. The Southern arid regions are in the rain shadow of the Western Ghats covering states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.99 districts are declared as drought prone areas.Over 75% of the cropped area in India is in the semi arid region.Water is scarce in this region.Inland water resources like tanks and lakes,beels,oxbowl lakes,ponds are the storages of water .
Due to EL Nino there is irregular rainfalls which causes low productivity of crops. Low production tends farmers to suicide. Rising of surface water kills many fishes .This make a great loss of fishermen. Not only that the rising of sea surface temperature kills many marine lives.Rivers,seas are the main reason for a civilisation. Greenhouse gases,pollutants,urbanisation,carbondiooxides are the main causes of imbalancing nature.This warm wave is melting the glaciers.
There have already been noticeable extreme climate events in recent years which took a heavy toll on crop output - the drought of 2002, the heat wave in Andhra Pradesh in May 2003, extremely cold winters in 2002 and 2003, and prolonged dry spell in July 2004 and January 2005 in the north, floods in the Rajasthan in 2005, drought in the north-east in 2006, abnormal temperature in January and February in 2007, and 23 per cent rainfall deficiency in the 2009 monsoon season.
In simple language El Nino will led to deficiency of rains and that will cause drought.Drought will led to less production of crops and this will impact every life in India.Farmers wait for rains to cultivate their crops so that they can sell their crops and feed their family.Hytec farming led farmers to buy high fertilised seeds and insectisides but this low production leave them in heavy debts.Some times this debts become the cause of suicides.Apart from this there will be shortage of fresh products.Everything will be supplied from the stock with more than thepresent market value.There will be too much expenses in daily products.It will hurt the wallet of middle class and lowwr middle class families.
Not only families ,the commercial world is also affected by El Nino.Fast Moving Consumer goods companies seem to prepare for the worst.Firms like Glaxo smith Kline,Dabur,Jyothy Laboratories,Godrej Consumer products and Parle products had collapsed in the droughts of 2003-2004.The Reserve Bank of India has also warned that this adversity can impact the yield which could further trigger the inflation rate above 8.5% and may result in hiking rates further,which would leave an impact in the economy of India.
Our greed to become the most intelligent and intellectual person are bringing the days for destruction.Natural calamity cannot be seized or controlled but we can take precautionary measures to prevent losses.Scientific inventions are necessary for the world but preservation of natural resources is more important than that because inventions will give a highly technical world to the coming generations but natural resources will let a life live.Observations and experiences led the meteorology department to predict the weather but every individual owes a responsibility to himself/herself and to the mother nature.Curtailing of environment pollution and planting of trees should be the first measure.Controll consumption of natural resources and electricity should be the second measure.Every government of every nation should preserve and protect the stock of foodgrains ,cereals and vegetables so that they can be supplied according to the demand of people in time s of natural calamity.Cabinet ministers and researchers,intellectuals ,scientists should focus on development of agriculture,fisheries, ponds,banks,lakes. If every individual performs his/her duty to the universe then we can give a little hope to the coming generations.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
1.wikipaedia
2.www.elnino.noaa.gov.in
3.www.colorado.edu
4.businesstoday.intoday.in
5.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
6.indianexpress.com
7.www.cgiar.org