...Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Solar Energy 112 (2015) 68–77 www.elsevier.com/locate/solener Short-term reforecasting of power output from a 48 MWe solar PV plant Yinghao Chu, Bryan Urquhart, Seyyed M.I. Gohari, Hugo T.C. Pedro, Jan Kleissl, Carlos F.M. Coimbra ⇑ Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Renewable Resource Integration, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Energy Research, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Received 31 March 2014; received in revised form 14 November 2014; accepted 17 November 2014 Communicated by: Associate Editor Frank Vignola Abstract A smart, real-time reforecast method is applied to the intra-hour prediction of power generated by a 48 MWe photovoltaic (PV) plant. This reforecasting method is developed based on artificial neural network (ANN) optimization schemes and is employed to improve the performance of three baseline prediction models: (1) a physical deterministic model based on cloud tracking techniques; (2) an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model; and (3) a k-th Nearest Neighbor (kNN) model. Using the measured power data from the PV plant, the performance of all forecasts is assessed in terms of common error statistics (mean bias, mean absolute error...
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...Emerging Markets Perspectives - CEO Insights Emerging Markets Perspectives - CEO Insights 1 Convergence & Differentiation What is success in a connected world?* Methodology This report was developed to provide a unique perspective from which to view the successes of companies based in emerging markets. While there are many reports providing valuable insights on how multinationals can expand into emerging markets, very few take a systematic approach towards looking at how emerging-market companies have not only fended off developed-world multinationals, but also found their own ways to expand into foreign markets. In addition to drawing on the insights of PricewaterhouseCoopers partners and associates from every market, we relied on two additional sources: 1. The 11th Annual PwC Global CEO Survey: The authoritative analysis of CEO views on business opportunities and risks of operating in an increasingly connected world. PricewaterhouseCoopers has published the survey for more than a decade, reaching out to more than 1,100 chief executive officers worldwide. The 11th Annual Global CEO Survey was launched in January 2008 at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos. The survey data were re-analysed for this report at the country level as well as by contrasting insights from developed versus emerging markets. For the purposes of this report, we define “developed nations” to include 19 economies, including the United States and Canada, 15 in Western Europe, Japan...
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...India and the Global Economy 14 CHAPTER The big story of the last decade for India has been its arrival on the global scene. The Indian economy had broken free of the low-growth trap from the early 1980s. By the mid-1990s, following the economic reforms of 1991-3, India began to appear as a player of some significance in the global economy. Then, following the East Asian crisis of the late 1990s, and from the first years of the first decade of the 21st century there was no looking back. India’s exports began to climb, its foreign exchange reserves, which for decades had hovered around 5 billion dollars, rose exponentially after the economic reforms and in little more than a decade had risen to 300 billion dollars. Indian corporations that rarely ventured out of India were suddenly investing all over the world and even in some industrialized countries. When, in 2009, the Group of 20 (G-20) was raised to the level of a forum for leaders, India was a significant member of this global policy group. 14.2 The globalization of India has given rise to new opportunities but it has also brought with it new challenges and responsibilities. It means that the global economy can no longer be viewed from a spectator’s standpoint. What happens there has large implications for India. Every time there is a major financial crisis anywhere in the world, there is need to take brace position. And, in turn, the rise and fall of India’s growth rate has an impact on global growth and there...
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...Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit Sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority The GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy About this research T he GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy is a white paper written by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority. The findings and views expressed in this briefing paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the QFC Authority, which has sponsored this publication in the interest of promoting informed debate. The Economist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for the content of the report. The author was Jane Kinninmont and the editor was Rob Mitchell. The findings are based on two main strands of research: l A programme of in-depth analysis, conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which drew on its own long-term forecasts and projections for the six GCC economies, along with other published sources of information. l A series of interviews in which economists, academics, and leading experts in the development of the GCC were invited to give their views. In some cases, interviewees have chosen to remain anonymous. Our sincere thanks go to all the interviewees for sharing their insights on this topic. March 2009 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2009 The GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy Executive summary O ver the...
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...MEGATRENDS UNDERPINNING TOURISM TO 2020 Analysis of key drivers for change Larry Dwyer, Deborah Edwards, Nina Mistilis, Carolina Roman, Noel Scott and Chris Cooper Analysis of Key Drivers for Change Technical Reports The technical report series present data and its analysis, meta-studies and conceptual studies, and are considered to be of value to industry, government and researchers. Unlike the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre’s Monograph series, these reports have not been subjected to an external peer review process. As such, the scientific accuracy and merit of the research reported here is the responsibility of the authors, who should be contacted for clarification of any content. Author contact details are at the back of this report. National Library of Australia Cataloguing in Publication Data Dwyer, Larry. Megatrends underpinning tourism to 2020: analysis of key drivers for change. Bibliography. ISBN 9781920965525. 1. Tourism - Economic aspects - Australia. 2. Tourism - Social aspects - Australia. 3. Tourism - Political aspects - Australia. 4. Tourism - Environmental aspects - Australia. 5. Tourism - Australia. I. Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism. II. Title. 338.47910994 Copyright © CRC for Sustainable Tourism Pty Ltd 2008 All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this book may be reproduced by any process without...
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...Contents Introduction Executive summary Part 1: Risks Ernst & Young sector risk radar The top 10 risks 1. Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves 2. Uncertain energy policy 3. Cost containment 4. Worsening fiscal terms 5. Health, safety and environmental risks 6. Human capital deficit 7. New operational challenges, including unfamiliar environments 8. Climate change concerns 9. Price volatility 10. Competition from new technologies 1 3 6 7 8 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 34 36 38 39 40 42 Part 2: Opportunities Ernst & Young opportunity ladder The top 10 opportunities 1. Frontier acreage 2. Unconventional sources 3. Conventional reserves in challenging areas 4. Rising emerging market demand 5. NOC-IOC partnerships 6. Investing in innovation and R&D 7. Alternative fuels, including second generation biofuels 8. Cross-sector strategic partnerships 9. Building regulatory confidence 10. Acquisitions or alliances to gain new capabilities Methodology Introduction While risk continues to dominate the business agenda, competition is also becoming just as dominant a feature. Market volatility, pricing pressure, variations in market performance, demanding stakeholders — all have contributed to a global economy that encourages competitive drive. And with that drive comes opportunity. For that reason, we have broadened the scope of what has traditionally been our Business Risk report to incorporate both risks...
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...EMERGING ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONFLICTS AS THREAT TO PROSPERITY Biyash Chakraborty MBA- International Business Email: chakraborty.biyash93@gmail.com University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun. (Uttarakhand), INDIA __________________________________________________________________________ Abstract India’s rapid economic growth has made it the second fastest growing energy market in the world. Its domestic and international strategies has produced foreign policy differences with the United States that will require careful management on both sides. India’s basic approach to energy diplomacy has been to develop its supply potential and neutralize its potential competitors, principally China. India’s strategic interest in Iran as its energy partner and then the Iraq crisis are having a negative consequence on its economic prosperity, placing it on crossroads with the US. There is a divide between US and EU about the wisdom and desirability of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Russia. In any such confrontation, EU stands to lose much more than the US, though it can be argued that Russia will be the worst loser. In future, Russia may try to find new potential market for its gas and that could be India. So it is important for India to take its stand on Ukraine crisis carefully without tarnishing its relation with USA. India’s long-term prosperity hinges to some degree on a conflict free neighborhood; that an economically integrated region is in India’s...
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...1. ARTICLES This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on December 14 - 20, 2015 [pic] A construction industry executive recently rented a high-end condominium for about 30% less than the going rate a year ago. Why was the condominium so cheap? The property agent replied that the previous tenant — a high-ranking oil and gas (O&G) official — had lost his job. “It’s quite common now for O&G expatriates to lose their jobs, so the property market has also been impacted,” the agent said. According to a senior executive in the once-booming oil and gas sector, as many as 7,000 to 8,000 executives have lost their jobs after the second round of industry-wide retrenchments in the country. He has been told by colleagues that Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), Scomi Group Bhd and UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd have put a freeze on hiring and the list of companies doing the same is getting longer. “Worse still, MMHE [Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd] is looking to discontinue the services of as many as 800 contractual workers, and Petronas is also mulling over a similar move,” he says. Such moves are often denied and never publicised. An MMHE official tells The Edge that the company only makes such announcements internally, but adds that she has not heard of recent staff-reduction exercises. “MMHE, like most businesses, is operating in a very competitive industry and under tough economic conditions. Regrettably, this often has an unavoidable impact on staff,” an MMHE...
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...Final Draft PERSPECTIVE PLAN OF BANGLADESH 2010-2021 ____________________________ MAKING VISION 2021 A REALITY General Economics Division Planning Commission Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh April 2012 Contents ABBREVIATIONS ...............................................................................................................................v PREAMBLE of the Perspective Plan (2010-2021) ............................................................................ 1 I. ............................................................................................................... Context of the Perspective Plan .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 II. .......................................................................................... Current state and Development Perspective .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER 1: VISION FOR A PROSPEROUS FUTURE........................................................................ 10 1.1 The Vision ..........................................................................................................
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...INTEGRATED ANALYSIS HOW INVESTORS ARE ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS IN FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY VALUATION FEBRUARY 2013 Co-funded by the PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT In September 2011 the PRI Initiative convened a working group of signatories to investigate how equity investors and analysts are integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis into their fair value calculations. The members of the ESG Integration Working Group are: Neil Brown Alliance Trust Investments - Working Group Chair Bruce Kahn Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors Andre Bertolotti Quotient Investors Masahiro Kato Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation – observer Paul Bugala Calvert Investments Tony Campos FTSE Group Erica Lasdon Calvert Investments Cécile Churet RobecoSAM Barb MacDonald British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Leanne Clements London Pension Funds Authority Mary Jane McQuillen ClearBridge Investments Jennifer Coulson British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Christie Stephenson NEI Investments Lisa Domagala Solaris Investment Management Ralf Frank DVFA (Society of Investment Professionals in Germany) Dr. Hendrik Garz Sustainalytics (previously employed by West LB) Bryan Thomson British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Mike Tyrrell SRI-Connect Stéphane Voisin Cheuvreux Niamh Whooley Société Générale Robert Hauser Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) Between...
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...mistakes. We will wholeheartedly welcome any clarification and suggestion about any view and conception disseminated through this assignment. Thank you. Yours Sincerely, Shakerul Islam Tazu ID. 09510127 Eamin Zabed ID. 09510082 Farhana Yeasmin Lopa ID. 09510189 Rawnak Razzak ID. 08310026 ------------------------------------------------- Aknowledgement One of the most pleasant parts of writing this report is the opportunity to thanks those who have contributed to it. Unfortunately, in any establishment, the list of expression of thanks- no matter how all-embracing- is always imperfect and insufficient, this acknowledgement is alike other is not an immunity. At first we want to thanks our Almighty Allah who gave me energy and patient and also knowledge for making that kind of report. Secondly we want to thanks our course instructor Ms Farhana Rahman without whom we must be unable to make it. We are very happy to participate in this Assignment. We...
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...INTEGRATED ANALYSIS HOW INVESTORS ARE ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS IN FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY VALUATION FEBRUARY 2013 Co-funded by the PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT In September 2011 the PRI Initiative convened a working group of signatories to investigate how equity investors and analysts are integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis into their fair value calculations. The members of the ESG Integration Working Group are: Neil Brown Alliance Trust Investments - Working Group Chair Bruce Kahn Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors Andre Bertolotti Quotient Investors Masahiro Kato Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation – observer Paul Bugala Calvert Investments Tony Campos FTSE Group Erica Lasdon Calvert Investments Cécile Churet RobecoSAM Barb MacDonald British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Leanne Clements London Pension Funds Authority Mary Jane McQuillen ClearBridge Investments Jennifer Coulson British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Christie Stephenson NEI Investments Lisa Domagala Solaris Investment Management Ralf Frank DVFA (Society of Investment Professionals in Germany) Dr. Hendrik Garz Sustainalytics (previously employed by West LB) Bryan Thomson British Columbia Investment Management Corporation Mike Tyrrell SRI-Connect Stéphane Voisin Cheuvreux Niamh Whooley Société Générale Robert Hauser Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) Between...
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...Organization of the United Nations GHG Greenhouse Gas OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PRC People’s Republic of China UAE United Arab Emirates US United States of America USDA Department of Agriculture of the United States WFP World Food Programme of the United Nations WTO World Trade Organization Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................i BACKGROUND.....................................................................................1 THE CAUSES.......................................................................................4 THE CLIMATE ISSUE ......................................................................... 4 INTERNATIONAL STOCK LEVELS......................................................... 5 INCREASED GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND................................................... 7 INCREASED OIL PRICE ...................................................................... 9 THE BIOFUEL FACTOR ......................................................................10 TARIFFS AND POLICIES....................................................................16 THE FINANCIAL MARKET...
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...America’s due to its benign interest in the Caribbean and Latin America (Americas) given the People’s Republic of China (China) increasing economic interest in the region. It is intended to first define the current security environment of the Americas and the relations between Brazil and Venezuela with that of the United States of America (United States) and China. Thereafter, China’s economic and domestic agenda in the Americas will be examined with hypotheses of the emerging global power potential growth success, challenges or possible collapse in her foreign policy. The likely consequences facing Brazil, Venezuela and the United States will also be examined. The assessment will be done across a continuum of China’s realized economic growth, development of hostile relations due to competition for scarce energy sources or possible collapse due to the country’s internal problems. Finally, the research seeks to encourage proactive thinking by the United States on China’s increasing political and military influence in the region and its possible underlying agenda of becoming the next global super power or hegemony. Introduction A general perception persists in the Caribbean and Latin America that the United States is disinterested in the security of the region with its emphasis placed on the global war on terror in the Middle East – Iraq and Afghanistan. As stated by Flanagan,...
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...Transportation & Logistics Transportation & Logistics 2030 Volume 1: How will supply chains evolve in an energy-constrained, low-carbon world? PricewaterhouseCoopers 1 Acknowledgements The editorial board of this issue of our Transportation & Logistics 2030 series consisted of the following individuals: PricewaterhouseCoopers European Business School Supply Chain Management Institute Dr. Heiko von der Gracht +49 611 3601 8800 vdgracht@supplyinstitute.org Tobias Gnatzy +49 611 3601 8800 gnatzy@supplyinstitute.org Prof. Dr. Inga-Lena Darkow +49 611 3601 8800 darkow@supplyinstitute.org Klaus-Dieter Ruske +49 211 981 2877 klaus-dieter.ruske@de.pwc.com Dr. Peter Kauschke +49 211 981 2167 peter.kauschke@de.pwc.com Julia Reuter +49 211 981 2095 julia.reuter@de.pwc.com Dr. Elizabeth Montgomery +49 89 5790 5159 elizabeth.montgomery@de.pwc.com We would like to thank the panellists who took part in the Delphi survey that underpins this report. For confidentiality reasons their names will not be mentioned. Special thanks go to Tom Gorman, CEO of CHEP EMEA and Harry Hohmeister, CEO of Swiss International Air Lines, who took the time to share their thoughts and insights with us. Finally, we would like to express our appreciation for the expertise provided by the below listed individuals: Jenny Bailey, Andreas Baur, Nicholas Bell, Thomas Brüderlin, Giorgio Elefante, Richard Gane, Martha Elena Gonzalez, Susanne Klages, Christian Knechtel, Socrates LeptosBourgi, Alexander...
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