An integrated approach or understanding of earth including the oceans is vital if we have to effectively and sustainably manage earth’s energy, water, mineral, soil and coastal resources for our future generations. A stand-alone view of various phenomena will not serve any purpose as any independent model is unable to sustain the variability of the complexities involved in the earth and ocean sciences, which are gradually converging.

It has therefore become imperative to understand the interdependence and coupling of geological sciences and oceanography. The combined approach to earth and ocean sciences is also the key to predicting and managing natural disasters or hazards like earthquakes, cyclones, floods, tsunami, etc.

In this context, in a significant development in India, a Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) was formed in July 2006 by restructuring the former Ministry of Ocean Development. The MoES deals with matters relating to meteorology, seismology, climate and environmental science and related earth sciences including ocean science and technology.

It facilitates an integrated view of earth systems viz., ocean, atmosphere and land to provide best possible services in respect of ocean resources, ocean state, monsoon, cyclone, earthquake, tsunami, climate change, etc. The MoES oversees research in earth system sciences, forecast monsoons and other climate parameters, ocean state, earthquakes, tsunamis and earth science phenomena.

The ministry also supports industry in science, aviation, water resources, aquaculture, agriculture, etc., by disseminating weather information. It also develops and coordinates science and technology related to oceans, Polar Regions besides preserving, assessing and exploiting marine living and non-living resources.

Apart from the MoES, an Earth Commission was also set up in January 2007 which acts as a nodal authority on earth sciences set up on the lines of Atomic Energy and Space Commission, The Earth Commission (comprising about 12 members) views in a holistic way phenomena that couple earth, atmosphere and oceans.

It formulates policies of MoES, creates suitable executive, networking and legislative mechanisms, approves major projects, budget, etc. It also establishes recruitment procedures, assesses manpower needs and undertakes HRD and capacity building.

Several projects are being carried out to get information on earth and atmospheric sciences. Deep continental studies are being undertaken to study the structure of the Indian lithosphere. A project has been launched with a view to studying geological, geomorphological, structural and geophysical setting of deep sea fans and is expected to throw light on the nature of oceanic crust and various events in evolution of the Himalayas.

Organisations like Geological Survey of India, Oil and Natural Gas Commission, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, National Institute of Oceanography and other concerned universities are participating in the programme.

A multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary coordinated project in the field of ‘Himalayan Glaciology’ was initiated during 1986 for studying snow-cover mapping, glacial inventory, hydro-meteorological and hydro- logical, geological and geo- morphological aspects of glaciers. These studies will be helpful in evaluation of snow-melt/glacial-melt contribution in the northern river system. Efforts are being made to link data collection platforms with INSAT for better understanding of glaciers.

A multi-institutional coordinated programme on arid zone research was launched in 1987 to enhance productivity of land, man and animal in arid land regions of the country with application of science and technology. Projects ranging from monitoring the process of desertifica­tion, establishment of natural resource data bases, sand-dune dynamics to surface and ground water inter-relationship are being supported.

Many of the programmes are of importance in the context of understanding how natural disasters take place and how to mitigate their effect.

Weather and Climate:

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which was set up on an all- India basis in 1875, is the national agency for providing services in meteorology. Data collected from over 1,400 observatories of different types including data collection platforms is processed by it.

IMD along with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, conducts fundamental and applied research in meteorological instrumentation, radar meteorology, seismology, agricultural meteorology, hydrometeorology, and satellite meteorology and air pollution. IITM has been conducting cloud seeding experiments for producing rain artificially.

IMD provides grants to certain universities/academic institutions to encourage research in atmospheric sciences and monsoon circulation. It also funds monsoon research by a centre in the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi. A monsoon activity centre was established at New Delhi under the World Meteorological Organisation Programme.

Meteorological and weather services are provided by IMD from its headquarters at New Delhi and functional offices responsible for clima­tology and forecasting at Pune. There are five regional Meteorological Centres at Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Nagpur and New Delhi. For better coordination, Meteorological Centres have been set up in other state capitals.

To render service to agriculturists, weather bulletins are issued daily since 1945 from Meteorological Centres relating to their regions. They give district wise forecasts of weather and warnings against adverse weather. Agrometeorological Advisory Service Centres have been estab­lished at several places and they issue meteorological advisory bulletins to farmers once or twice a week.

Flood meteorological offices have been working at ten different centres to provide meteorological support to flood forecasting organisation of Central Water Commission. Tourism depart­ments at Centre and in states have access to meteorological centres for weather information of interest to tourists.

IMD issues warnings against heavy rainfall, strong winds and cyclonic weather for general public and various private and public organisations including aviation, defence services, ships, ports, fishermen, mountaineering expeditions and agriculturists.

Disaster warning system receivers have been installed in disaster-prone coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh and more would be installed along coastal areas of West Bengal, Orissa, north Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. In addition, IMD operates data collection platforms (DCPs).

Cyclone warnings to ports and ships are issued by Mumbai, Kolkata, Visakhapatnam, Bhubaneswar and Chennai offices. These are based on conventional meteorological observations from coastal and island obser­vatories, ships in the Indian seas, coastal cyclone detection radars and cloud pictures received from weather satellites.

Cyclone detection radar stations are located at Mumbai, Goa, Cochin, Bhuj, Kolkata, Chennai, Karaikal, Paradip, Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam. Weather satellite pictures transmitted by Indian National Satellite are received at main Data Utilisation Centre at Delhi and processed and transmitted to users. A cyclone warning and research centre at Chennai investigates problems exclusively relating to tropical cyclones.

Meteorological data is exchanged with many countries through high-speed telecommunication channels. As part of India’s cooperation with World Weather Watch Programme of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a regional meteorological centre and regional telecommunication hub functions at New Delhi.

IMD participates in Indian scientific expeditions to Antarctica and scientific cruises of ocean research vessels.

Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), Bengaluru, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism (IIG), Mumbai, and IITM, Pune, which were formerly a part of IMD, have been functioning as autonomous institutes since 1971.

IIA conducts research in solar and stellar physics, radio astronomy, cosmic radiation, etc. IIG records magnetic observations and conducts research in geomagnetism.

Under the Dynamics of Monsoon programme data are collected at sites covering continuously moist, periodically moist and mainly dry regions of monsoon by using both conventional and modern techniques like instrumented meteorological tower, Doppler sonar, tether -sonde, mini-radiosonde radiometer, etc. Studies using these and other conven­tional data will lead to understanding of dynamics of monsoon, vagaries of which are intimately related to rainfall distribution in North India.

The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Programme Project is being launched as part of an international programme and includes deployment of data buoys, XBT lines, additional tide gauges, etc. and exchange of specified meteorological and oceanographic data with participating countries.

It will lead to improved understanding of oceano­graphic and atmospheric processes and air-sea interaction mechanism over tropical oceans and to develop reliable climate model relevant to our country. It will also help increase our capabilities for forecasting monsoon and cyclones.

The Monsoon and Tropical Climate (MONTCLIM) Programme is directed towards undertaking studies on monsoon climate variability/ change, modelling atmospheric processes and technology development for atmospheric science research. In order to study the effect of weather and climate in the tropics, efforts are being made to improve parameterisation of land-ocean-atmospheric processes in the atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs).

Indian Climate Research Programme. The Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP), aimed at studying short- and medium-term climate variations in India, has become operational. The programme is being implemented under the Department of Science and Technology (DST) and is expected to interface with other regional and international programmes under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

The IRCP consists of: (i) analysis of observational data from ground- based, ship-based and satellite-based measurements; (ii) modelling studies with coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models (OAGCMs); and (iii) identification of the climate component of agricultural produc­tivity, impact of climate on environment, global warming and climate change, etc.

Under the programme, a pilot study on the Bay of Bengal and monsoon experiment to understand the air-sea interaction processes and monsoon variability have been completed. The Department of Ocean Development has set up buoys, equipped with ocean observation systems, in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

The data will be telemetred through the international maritime satellite, INMARSAT, and received back in India via France. Scientists are keen to gather data on the Bay of Bengal where most cloud formation takes place and moves northwards. They also plan to study how ocean conditions affect rainfall variations in a season (intra-seasonal variation) — a key factor for monsoon forecast models.

A similar effort is on to sail buoys to study the warm waters of Kerala and Minocoy and the role of the Arabian Sea in monsoon fluctuations.

Scientists also plan to sail ships in the Bay of Bengal to study how its water circulation is affected by fresh water discharges from rain as well as major rivers that drain into it—the Ganga, Mahanadi, Irawadi and Brahmaputra. The ships, to be located at intervals of 10, 15 and 20 degrees North latitude, will be equipped with instruments to measure changes in water circulation during different seasons and the monsoon.

The land component of the ICRP has made a beginning with the construction of five highly instrumented towers to study the atmosphere from 10 to 30 metres height at Anand in Gujarat.

The ICRP studies fossil records to analyse climate variations in the past. Scientists are studying fossil pollen in Rajasthan lakes and Himalayan ice cores, pollen in peat in dried up marshy areas, and rings on old trees that vary according to climatic conditions. While pollen studies can give data 5,000 to 10,000 years old, the tree ring technique gives data up to 200 years ago.

To go further back into history, scientists plan to drill and bring out material from shallow and deep ocean waters to analyse climate variability up to 1,000 to 20,000 years ago.

The atmosphere component of ICRP consists of analysis of global data on atmosphere made available through satellites.

Monsoon Forecast:

The first operational long-range forecast of seasonal southwest monsoon rainfall (June-September) of India was issued by IMD in 1986. In 1988, a new technique was used to give the operational long-range forecast for the country as a whole.

Following the significant deviation in its south-west monsoon forecast for 1999 from the actual rainfall received during the period, the IMD has started reworking its ‘long-range forecasting parametric and power regression model’.

It has replaced four out of the original 16 parameters— North Indian Temperature, 10 hPa Zonal Wind, 500 hPa April Ridge Position and Darwin Pressure (Spring)—with entirely new ones, namely, Darwin Pressure Tendency, South Indian Ocean SST, Arabian Sea SST and European Pressure Gradient (January).

The model, in operation since 1988, basically relied on data pertaining to 16 regional and global temperature, pressure, wind and snow cover-related parameters, which have been observed to physically influ­ence the country’s monsoon rainfall performance. Each parameter or predictor was defined in terms of observations made over a specific location and period, which in some cases stretches till end-May.

The forecasting process has a qualitative as well as quantitative dimension, with the former involving an analysis of the configuration of favourable and unfavourable signals from the pre-monsoon behaviour of the 16 parameters. Once the qualitative inferences are drawn, the numerical values of the parameters are taken to generate a quantitative estimate of the monsoon rainfall using a standard statistical ‘power regression’ model.

While the model theoretically had an estimated error range of only plus or minus 4 per cent of the forecast levels, the deviations from the actuals had, in practice, however, been much larger. The reason for the quantitative forecasting errors being larger than original model error in recent times had mainly to do with the fact that statistical relationship of some of the predictors had been weakening with time.

The new parameters have a stronger statistical relationship to the country’s recent monsoon performance and would, therefore, limit the forecast error to the original model range. The overall formulation of the operational 16-parameter model has remained unaltered.

Of the 16 parameters selected the IMD has held 10 to be favourable, which, in quantitative terms, translates into an all-India monsoon rainfall level amounting to 99 per cent of the long period average of 88 cm, within the estimated model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.

Indian scientists carry out numerical modelling exercises on the CRAY-XMP supercomputer which was procured in 1987.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) was set up in 1988 under the DST and has the mandate to develop an operational model for medium-range forecasts. The output information predicts the data of wind, rainfall, temperature, humidity, soil temperature, cloud cover and derived information.

The centre has been developing a model for 3-10 days forecast, and is now able to issue an operational forecast to the IMD a few days ahead. The centre has been quite successful at numerical weather prediction using the T80 model and data from INSAT.

The centre, through its field units, has been providing medium- range forecasts by using global numerical model and agrometeorological advisories (AAS) to the farmers in various agro-climatic zones of the country. These units are located at state agricultural universities and ICAR institutes.

The state-of-the-art numerical models are being used at NCMRWF for generation of weather forecasts over the entire globe using mathematical model with initial condition generated after assimilation of global observations. At present, the forecasts are produced for a 150 km resolution grid that would soon be changed to a higher resolution of 75 km grid or less.

Apart from the fanning community, NCMRWF is also providing the forecast products to IMD, Indian Air Force, and Indian Navy, Snow and Avalanche Studies Establishment and other non-governmental organisations. Recently, the model generation low-level wind fields have started to be used in the ocean state forecasting.

Forecasts are being issued for other applications as well, viz., defence applications, flood forecasting, summer monsoon onset and its progression, important national functions (Inde­pendence Day/Republic Day, etc.) and festivals, Amarnath Yatra (J&K tourism, etc.) and the Everest expeditions.

In addition, forecasts of vertical profiles of wind are provided for launch of space vehicles. NCMRWF products were utilised during various field experiments of national importance conducted over Indian Seas, viz., INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment) and BOBMEX (Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment).

A new high-end computer system has been installed recently at the Centre, which will improve the accuracy, range and resolution of weather forecasts, especially of hazardous weather phenomena. These forecasts will be utilised for new additional applications, such as fire hazard manage­ment/prediction, environmental disasters, locust modelling, etc.

Research:

Monex:

A regional component of an international study called Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP), the Monsoon Experi­ment (MONEX) was conducted jointly by the World Meteorological Organisation and International Council of Scientific Unions in 1979.

The IMD was the main executing agency of this project in India. ISRO’s contribution to the project comprised collection of wind data using rockets and meteorological data collected by using Omega Sondes. The Balasore Rocket Launching Station in Orissa was set up by ISRO during MONEX to launch rockets of meteorological observations.

IMAP:

The Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme (IMAP) is a nationwide cooperative effort of many scientific departments and organisations to investigate the physical and chemical phenomena and processes taking place in the atmosphere between 10-100 km.

MST Radar:

The mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar is the second largest such radar in the world (the largest being at Jicamarca, Peru). It has been installed and it operates at Gadanki, a village near Tirupati, in Andhra Pradesh. It is a national facility of immense use in atmospheric research.

Gadanki was chosen for setting up of this radar facility because of its geographic location, near the Equator, as well as low level-noise prevalence. Besides, it is near Sriharikota, the launch pad of the ISRO, which can also benefit from the data obtained by this radar.

MST corresponds to three height regions of atmosphere, 50-85 km, 17-50 km and 0-17 km respectively. A radar which is used to study the dynamics of the above heights is called MST radar. Rockets and balloons are conventionally used for probing the atmosphere. Different sensors sent up with these devices into the atmosphere, however, can give data only for a few minutes. The atmosphere can be analysed on a continuous basis every day by the MST radar.

A radar uses radio waves to detect and range the objects of interest. It sends radio waves and receives back the echo from the target. From the time of received echo and shift in frequency of the echo, the range and velocity of the target can be determined. In normal radars, the target may be airplanes.

For an MST radar the target is the irregularities in the radio refractive index of the atmosphere. The strength of the echo is very weak, since reflexivity of the clear atmosphere is extremely small. This dictates the use of high transmitter power and antenna array with large physical aperture.

The Indian MST radar is operating at a frequency of 53 MHz. It can provide details of the wind velocity of over five to 100 km with a height resolution of 150 metres. The antenna system of this radar is spread over a high area of 16,000 sq metres, employing 1024 Yagi antennae. There are 32 high power transmitters in the system.

The radar has been designed by the engineers of the Society for Applied Microwave Electronics Engineering Research (SAMEER), Mumbai. The work of the MST radar is coordinated by the Department of Space on behalf of the Department of Electronics which provided 30 per cent funds. DST, DRDO, the Department of Environment, and CSIR also provided funds to this project.

CRYO Probes:

Under the ISRO geosphere-biosphere programme, balloon-based cryo-sampler experiments are planned to be conducted at regular intervals. The scientific information thus obtained is expected to help monitor and regulate ozone depletion substances. ISRO is one among very few organisations in the world to develop and successfully employ this advanced cryogenic technique.

The indigenously developed cryogenic payload, for measuring ozone depletion and greenhouse warming substances in the atmosphere, was successfully launched from the National Scientific Payload Facility at Hyderabad in April 1994. The payload, comprising 16 cryo probes, was lifted by a balloon of 1, 50,000 cubic metre capacity to the predetermined ceiling altitude of 37 km.

The cryo probes were commanded to collect the ambient samples at various heights during the ascent as well as descent. The trace gas elements include the ozone-damaging chlorofluo- rocarbon (CFC), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and different oxides of nitrogen. The detailed analysis of the samples has been carried out at the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad.

The technique of cryogenic pumping enables the measurement of almost all the ozone-depleting substances mentioned in the Montreal Protocol to which India is a signatory. According to ISRO sources, most of the ozone-depleting substances are produced and released into the atmosphere by developed countries, while India’s contribution is less than 0.1 per cent. But, atmospheric dynamics are such that an abundance of these substances in the tropical region is an index of the global ozone destructive potential of the substance.

Seismology:

A ‘seismology programme’ was initiated in the year 1983 with a view to understand the earthquake processes and the related field manifestations. The initial focus of the programme was on two critical earthquake-prone areas, namely, north-west Himalayas and north-east part of India.

Later, as infrastructure such as seismic stations and strong motion seismic networks were established at various locations, new geographical areas like the Delhi region and Bihar plains were also taken up for carrying integrated studies. Special initiatives were launched for the north-east region.

Several seismological observatories have been set up, which are operated and maintained by various institutions to complement the national efforts of the IMD. The programme has made considerable progress over the years in terms of generation of new knowledge on understanding earthquake processes, identification of seismogenic features, acceleration values from near-source, manpower development and general public awareness.

Seismo-Tectonic Map:

Project Vasundhara by the Geological Survey of India aims to make an integrated evaluation of data received from satellites, air-borne geophysical and ground surveys and draw thematic maps of mineral-rich regions and delineate areas for mineral search.

As a spin-off of this project, a Seismo-tectonic map of peninsular India has been brought out which shows this region—once considered to be stable and relatively free of earthquakes— to be a seismically active zone.

Only two major earthquakes had occurred in the peninsula till 1967—one in Bellary in 1843 and the other in Coimbatore in 1900. Their intensity was 7 on the MM scale, but the 1967 Koyna earthquake, which recorded a magnitude of six on the Richter Scale, and the Bhadrachalam and Broach quakes whose intensities were 5.3 and 5.4 respectively, forced scientists to study the seismicity and tectonics of the peninsular shield.

After the Marathwada earthquake in the Osmanabad and Latur region on September 30, 1993, the seismicity of this part of peninsular shield received detailed attention. The seismicity in the region could be related to lineaments lying in the vicinity of zone of uplift deciphered in 1975 based on gravity data.

According to the Seismo-tectonic map brought out by the Geological Survey of India, there were 436 epicentres below the 17 degree latitude. The region is said to have low-to-moderate level seismic activity. It was possible to find a relationship between the various epicentres and lineaments, which are surface or subsurface manifestations of linear features representing faults, joints, fracture systems and dykes. Many faults and lineaments were identified as active based on reliable seismic activity.

A major seismic zone with a cluster of epicentres along the east- west track between Mysore and west of Puducherry was located near the Dharwar Craton-Pandyan zone. This zone included a system of northeast- south-west trending faults. The seismicity of this zone was probably related to these faults.

Clusters of epicentres were also found in the regions of Ongole, Chittoor and Cuddapah, east of Mangalore, besides Bangalore city and its neighbourhood.

The map was drawn after analysing Seismo-tectonic characteristics of the region based on the study of distribution of epicentres and their relation to faults, shear and lineaments. Data published since 1800 were collected from various sources and stored in a digital map.

The Latur earthquake of 1993 also prompted the government to launch a World Bank-assisted project on ‘seismological instrumentation upgradation and other collateral geographical studies in the peninsular shield region’.

The various components of the project were—upgrading existing observatories of the IMD; setting up new observatories; setting up of National Seismological Data Centre with improved communication links; geodetic observations using the Global Positioning System (GPS); and electrical conductivity mapping and structural response studies of tall buildings.

Deep Continental Studies:

Deep continental studies (DCS) programme is a collaborative, multi-disciplinary earth science research programme aimed at understanding the deep crustal configuration and related processes of the Indian lithosphere.

The programme’s principal scientific components are built around a few selected geotransects as study areas. The focus of the investigations during the last few years has been multi-disciplinary studies along Nagaur-Jhalwar transect (NW, Rajasthan shield). Central Indian Craton and south Indian shield, integrated studies have also been launched along the NW Himalayan geotransect (HIMPROBE).

Programme on GPS Observations:

The national GPS measure­ment programme is aimed at investigating the crustal deformation due to earthquake occurrence processes and other related geodynamic phe­nomena at the Himalayan convergent plate margin and the peninsular shield region.

Himalayan Glaciology:

The Himalayan glaciology programme is aimed at understanding the behaviour of glaciers and their interaction with climate and hydrological system and also to train manpower and create research and development related facilities in this vital area.

Under the programme, an integrated R&D programme on Gangotri glacier was approved recently. Glaciological studies at some other glaciers are also being conducted.

Agrometeorology Programme:

The programme involves undertak­ing field experiments related to modelling studies on the effect of weather and climate on crop growth, yields and pest and disease development. The data generated is used to develop subroutines for simulating agrometeorological processes, testing and validation.

An agrometeorological data bank has been initiated at the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, for collection, compilation and archival of various types of crop and weather data generated under agrometeorology projects supported by ICAR and DST.

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