GLOBAL
MARKET
OUTLOOK
For Photovoltaics
2014-2018

Supported by:

GLOBAL
MARKET
OUTLOOK
For Photovoltaics
2014-2018

Principal authors and analysts: Gaëtan Masson (iCARES Consulting), Sinead Orlandi, Manoël Rekinger
Publication coordination: Benjamin Fontaine, Sinead Orlandi
External contributors: AECEA, APERe, APESF, APISOLAR, APREN, assoRinnovabili, Australian PV Association, BPVA, BSWSolar,
CANSIA, CREIA, CRES, CZEPHO, Danish PV Association, EDORA, ENERPLAN, Fronius, GENSED, GIFI, Goldbeck, HELAPCO,
Holland Solar, HUPIA, IEA-PVPS, JPEA, KOPIA, Martifer, PV AUSTRIA, PV Russia, PV Poland, PV Vlaanderen, Renewable
Association of Israel, RPIA, RTS Corporation, SAPI, SAPVIA, SASIA, SEIA, SEMI Taiwan, SolarMax, SolarTrade Association,
SunEdison, Swissolar, TOTAL, UNEF, Wacker, ZSFI
Editor: Tom Rowe
Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden
Images: iStock.com/CaiaImage (cover), REC – Renewable Energy Corporation ASA (page 8), Sharp (page 10), ENEL (page 12),
First Solar (page 14), First Solar (page 16), Kyocera Fineceramics, Stromaufwart Photovoltaik GmbH (page 26), Sharp (page 48),
JA Solar (page 54).
Supported by: Intersolar Europe
Solar irradiation world map has been derived from the SolarGIS database: http://solargis.info (© 2014 GeoModel Solar)

Disclaimer: Please note that all historical figures provided in this brochure are valid at the time of publication and will be revised when new and proven figures are available. All forecast figures are based on EPIA knowledge at the time of publication. Please also note that forecast figures have been rounded.
EPIA’s methodology includes only systems connected to the grid and not those that have been installed but not yet connected.
The difference between installations and systems connected to the grid can be quite significant in some cases. Installed capacity considers all photovoltaic technologies.

FOREWORD

Dear EPIA Members,
Dear Friends of EPIA,

Since its creation in 1985, EPIA – the European Photovoltaic Industry Association – has experienced great changes and challenges. Just like the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry. Only a niche market a few years ago, PV is now becoming a mainstream electricity provider, changing the way the world is powered.
As the voice of photovoltaics in Europe, EPIA is leading the way to this energy transition.
To ensure PV gets favourable and sustainable framework conditions, EPIA is intensively engaging in the European decision making process on all relevant regulations shaping the energy sector. EPIA is also proactively engaging on key issues for the future development of PV, such as the energy market design and the integration of PV into the electricity grid. Our profound intelligence work on these issues is further reinforcing the PV sector’s credibility and our ability to secure a sustainable development pathway for PV.
Over the years, EPIA has established itself as an opinion leader and a credible information hub on markets and policy, reinforcing its key role in the European energy sector. The 2014 edition of our flagship report “Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics”, with comprehensive historical market data, five-year forecasts for the main global markets under different policy assumptions, hopefully not too optimistic, as well as an analysis of the role that PV is playing in the European energy system, will once again be an indispensable tool for the global PV sector and energy stakeholders alike.
Even during a difficult period of industry consolidation and economic crisis, PV installations saw another record-year in 2013: at least 38.4 GW of newly-added capacity around the globe, and almost 11
GW in Europe. While the latter figure represents a significant decrease compared to the year before, it should however be put into perspective. In 2013, apart from wind, no other source of electricity reached the levels of new installations that PV did in Europe. Some, such as gas, even experienced negative net numbers, with more capacity decommissioned than installed.
This proves, if need be, that solar photovoltaics is on the way to becoming a major part of the electricity system, delivering clean, safe and affordable energy to the greater number all around the globe.
The energy transition is underway, let’s embrace it!

Enjoy your reading.
Best regards,
Oliver Schäfer
EPIA President

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 5

Foreword

1. Installations and connections
2. The role of off-grid installations
3. AC-DC numbers: Counting comparable numbers

A. Historical PV market development
1. World cumulative installed capacity
2. World PV market development
3. European market development
B. The market in Europe in 2013 and the forecast until 2018
1. Relevant European markets in 2013
2. Segmentation
3. Forecasts of PV in Europe until 2018
4. 2020 potential and targets in the EU
5. Medium-term scenario for 2030: How much can PV contribute to a binding 2030 target?
6. Support schemes in Europe and prospects for PV
C. The global market in 2013 and the forecast until 2018
1. Global PV market growth
2. Global PV capacity
3. Forecasts until 2018
4. Forecasts per segment
5. Future prospects for market development

table of contents

5

14
14
15

17
17
18
21
25
25
28
30
33
35
36
37
37
38
39
43
46

1.

introduction

2.

methodology and scenarios

12

3.

market evolution

4.

5.

8

A. Positioning PV in the electricity generations mix
1. PV positioning in 2013
2. Historical PV positioning
3. Share of PV in the EU 28
4. PV and the electricity system

16

Photovoltaics in the energy sector

48

conclusion

54

Glossary
List of figures and tables

49
49
51
52
53
56
57

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 7

1

INTRODUCTION

1. INTRODUCTION

With at least 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of newly-installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity worldwide and a global cumulative installed capacity of 138.9 GW, 2013 was another historic year for solar PV technology.
Compared to the two previous years, where installed capacity hovered only slightly above 30 GW annually, the PV market progressed remarkably in 2013. Despite this, the global PV market is at a turning point which will have profound implications in the future. For the first time in more than a decade, the
European PV market was no longer the top regional PV market in the world. Asia surpassed Europe in a dramatic way, representing around 56% of the world PV market in 2013. This Asian progress occurred in parallel with the relative decline in Europe already observed in 2012. Vigorous growth in non-European markets kept global PV development on an upward trajectory and largely compensated for the European slowdown.

 EPIA’s major findings for 2013 include:
• At least 38.4 GW of PV systems were installed globally in 2013, up from 30 GW in 2012; PV remains, after hydro and wind power, the third most important renewable energy source in terms of globally installed capacity
• Almost 11 GW of PV capacity were connected to the grid in Europe in 2013, compared to
17.7 GW in 2012 and more than 22.4 GW in 2011
• For the first time since 2003 Europe lost its leadership to Asia in terms of new installations
• China was the top market in 2013 with 11.8 GW of which 500 MW represent off-grid systems.
Statistics released in May 2014 report that the country may have installed an additional 1.1 GW on top of the 11.8 GW estimated by EPIA. Since it is unsure whether these installations were connected to the grid EPIA did not take them into account. China was followed by Japan with
6.9 GW and the USA with 4.8 GW.
• Germany was the top European market with 3.3 GW. Several other European markets exceeded the one GW mark: the UK (1.5 GW), Italy (1.4 GW), Romania (1.1 GW) and Greece (1.04 GW)
• Several European markets that performed well in the past went down in 2013, a consequence of political decisions to reduce PV incentives, Belgian installations went from 600 megawatts (MW) to 215 MW, French went from 1,115 MW to 613 MW, and Danish went down from 300 to around
200 MW
• Aside from the significant decline in Germany and Italy, the size of the remaining European PV market was stable, with around 6 GW per year in the last three years
• Outside Europe, several markets continued to grow at a reasonable pace: India with 1,115 MW,
Korea with 442 MW, Thailand with 317 MW, Canada with 444 MW and many others

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 9

1. INTRODUCTION

 Changing regional trends, new market leaders
Europe’s role as the unquestioned leader in the PV market has come to an end. While Europe accounted for 74% of the world’s new PV installations in 2011, and even around 55% the year after, the region only represented 29% of the world’s new PV installations in 2013. That said, various markets in
Europe still have strong and almost untapped potential for significant PV growth in the coming years.
In 2013, growth came mainly from Asian countries and especially China and Japan, which now rank as the first and second global markets respectively. Markets in the Americas grew less quickly than expected, but growth was observed in the USA, Canada and Mexico. In other regions of the world, interest in PV has not yet translated into significant market development.

 Increasing competitiveness
PV markets in Europe and around the world continued to make rapid progress toward competitiveness in the electricity sector in 2013. Strong PV technology price decreases and electricity prices on the rise have helped drive momentum toward “dynamic grid parity” - when the savings in electricity cost and/or the revenues generated by selling PV electricity on the market are equal to or higher than the long-term cost of installing and financing a PV system. Competitivenes is being reached progressively in some market segments of several EU countries.

10 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

1. INTRODUCTION

 PV as a policy-driven market
In most countries however, PV remains a policy-driven market. The introduction, modification or phasingout of national support schemes, which heavily impact the development of PV markets and industries in these countries, also significantly influence EPIA’s forecasts and scenarios. Indeed, declining political support for PV has led to reduced markets in several European countries (Germany, Italy, Belgium,
France and Spain for instance) while the implementation of new feed-in tariff policies has led to a dramatic increase of the markets in other countries (such as China and Japan).

 PV in the electricity mix
For the third year in a row, PV in 2013 was amongst the two most installed sources of electricity in the European Union. While wind energy exceeded PV in 2013 by some hundreds of MW, these two sources of electricity are the clear leaders of new generation sources of installations. PV now covers 3% of the electricity demand and 6% of the peak electricity demand in Europe. As the share of PV in the electricity mix increases, grid and market integration challenges are becoming more and more important for the future development of PV.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 11

2

METHODOLOGY
AND SCENARIOS

2. METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS

Forecasting PV market evolution has become more complex than it was in the past. The PV market is clearly driven by policy, but as we are now in an era of energy market integration, the market potential of PV also depends on electricity savings and/or potential sales on the wholesale electricity market.
While EPIA’s latest analyses indicate that in 2014 a part of the European market will still be driven by incentives, several key markets are already entering the transition phase from an investor-driven market to a market driven by savings on the energy bill through self-consumption in the construction segment
(residential, commercial and industrial).
In addition, economic uncertainty in several European countries has in some cases led policymakers to make decisions that have a negative effect on the PV market, such as imposing retrospective measures.
These decisions severely erode investor confidence even as PV technology and competitiveness improve
– slowing market development in a way that is not easily predictable. In 2013, several retrospective measures were taken, severely damaging the reputation of PV. Moreover, such measures harm the credibility of the countries beyond PV, affecting their whole financing sector.
In March 2014, EPIA completed an extensive data-collection exercise from a highly representative sample of the PV industry, electric utilities, national associations and energy agencies. Based on the crosschecking of data and the consolidation of complementary market projection methods, EPIA has derived three scenarios for the future development of PV markets:
• The High Scenario assumes the continuation, adjustment or introduction of adequate support mechanisms, accompanied by a strong political will to consider PV as a major power source in the coming years. Achieving this will also require removing unnecessary administrative barriers and streamlining grid connection procedures. Although market booms caused by inadequate support mechanisms are less likely to happen because of the growing exchange of best practices when designing support policies, they can still be observed in some cases.
• The Low Scenario assumes rather pessimistic market behaviour with no major reinforcement or adequate replacement of existing support mechanisms, or a strong decrease/limitation of existing schemes, or no adequate policies. In this scenario, it is assumed that in countries close to transition, markets significantly slow down when Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) are phased out.
• The Medium Scenario weights the two previous scenarios according to the probability of achieving them. This new scenario defines the most probable market development forecast, according to the information available in March 2014.
Under these three scenarios, this report analyses the historical development of the PV market and its potential for the future. Based on a bottom-up approach at country level, it presents aggregated figures and scenarios. In this approach, consolidated forecasts should be understood as a range of possible
PV market developments, with a high probability between the Low Scenario as the lower boundary and the High Scenario as the top of the range. Lower or higher forecasts are of course possible as the history of PV market development has shown, although with a lower likelihood.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 13

2. METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS

 Installations and connections
EPIA’s methodology includes only systems connected to the grid and not those that have been installed but not yet connected. Therefore, the cumulative installed capacity refers to installations that can make a real contribution to meeting energy demand. This also reflects both the energy system point of view and the regulatory point of view, as PV electricity tariffs are paid only to systems that are connected and producing electricity. The difference between installations and systems connected to the grid can be quite significant in some cases, as was detailed in previous editions of the “Global Market Outlook”.

 The role of off-grid installations
Long before PV became a reliable source of power connected to the grid, it was largely used to provide electricity in remote areas that lay out of the reach of electricity grids. While off-grid systems in Europe account for less than 1% of the installed PV capacity, they represent a significant power source in other parts of the world. For this reason, off-grid systems are also taken into account in the total installed capacity. In the USA, off-grid systems represented 10% of the overall market in 2009 and declined since then. In Australia and South Korea, dozens of megawatts of off-grid capacity are installed every year and are accordingly taken into account in the total installed capacity in those countries. In countries such as India or Peru, the development of PV in the coming years could originate at least partially from hybrid systems and micro-grid applications. In that respect the notion of on-grid or off-grid installations could be more difficult to assess outside Europe.

14 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

2. METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS

 AC-DC numbers: counting comparable numbers
PV panels generate direct-current (DC) electricity; electricity systems are based on alternating-current
(AC) electricity. Most countries refer to installed PV systems by counting DC power, but some report AC power. The major difference lies in the small percentage of energy lost during the DC-AC conversion in the inverters and the inverter parameters, which could deliver non-comparable data. This report presents data as they are produced by national authorities to ensure the compatibility of historical data, whatever the conventions used. However, in the case of countries reporting AC power, this report also calculates
DC power numbers. All forecasts and consolidated data are presented in DC power, while electricity production data must consider AC power. In such cases, a realistic loss during conversion is assumed.
In Europe, Spain falls into this category. Canada and Japan, amongst others are also reporting (at least partially for the latter) in AC.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 15

3

MARKET
EVOLUTION

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

A. HISTORICAL PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT

The PV market has grown over the past decade at a remarkable rate – even during difficult economic times – and is on the way to becoming a major source of power generation for the world. After record growth in 2011, the global PV market stabilised in 2012, and grew again significantly in 2013.
1. World cumulative installed capacity

At the end of 2009, the world’s cumulative installed PV capacity was more than 23 GW. One year later it was 40.3 GW and at the end of 2011 it was 70.5 GW. In 2012, the 100 GW mark was reached and by 2013, almost 138.9 GW of PV had been installed globally —an amount capable of producing at least 160 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity every year. This energy volume is sufficient to cover the annual power supply needs of over 45 million European households. This is also the equivalent of the electricity produced by 32 large coal power plants. The global cumulative installed capacity could have even reached 140 GW in 2013 if the additional 1.1 GW in China were taken into account.
Europe remains the world’s leading region in terms of cumulative installed capacity, with 81.5
GW as of 2013. This represents about 59% of the world’s cumulative PV capacity, down from 70% in
2012 and about 75% of the world’s capacity in 2011. Asia Pacific countries are growing fast, with 40.6
GW now installed. Next in the rankings are the America’s (13.7 GW).
160,000
138,856
140,000

120,000
100,504
100,000

MW

80,000

70,469

60,000
40,336
40,000
23,185
15,844

20,000
1,615

2,069

2,635

3,723

6,660

1,288

5,112

9,183

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

RoW

751

807

887

964

993

1,003

1,108

1,150

1,226

1,306

1,590

2,098

2,098

MEA

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

1

1

2

3

25

80

205

570

953

China

19

24

42

52

62

70

80

100

140

300

800

3,300

6,800

18,600

Americas
APAC
Europe
Total

2,098

21

24

54

102

163

246

355

522

828

1,328

2,410

4,590

8,365

13,727

368

496

686

916

1,198

1,502

1,827

2,098

2,628

3,373

4,951

7,513

12,159

21,992

70,513

81,488

129

265

399

601

1,306

2,291

3,289

5,312

11,020

16,854

30,505

52,764

1,288

1,615

2,069

2,635

3,723

5,112

6,660

9,183

15,844

23,185

40,336

70,469 100,504 138,856

RoW: Rest of the World. MEA: Middle East and Africa. APAC: Asia Pacific.
Methodology used for RoW data collection has changed in 2012.

Figure 1 - Evolution of global PV cumulative installed capacity 2000-2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 17

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

Many of the markets outside the EU - in particular the USA or India - have tapped only a very small part of their enormous potential. In 2013, Asian countries took the lead and started to develop faster than traditional European markets. Several countries from large Sunbelt regions like Africa, the Middle East,
South East Asia and Latin America are on the brink of starting their development. The cumulative installed capacity outside Europe almost doubled from 30 GW as of 2012 to close to 60 GW in
2013, demonstrating the ongoing rebalancing between Europe and the rest of the world and more closely reflecting the patterns in electricity consumption.
2. World PV market development

The global PV market progressed in 2013: after two years of around 30 GW of installations annually, the market reached more than 38 GW in 2013, establishing a new world record. But the most important fact from 2013 is a rapid development of PV in Asia combined with a sharp drop of installations in Europe.
This record could have been even higher. In fact almost 40 GW have been installed in 2013 if we consider the 1.1 GW more installed by China.

38,352

40,000

35,000
30,133

30,011

2011

2012

30,000

25,000

MW

20,000

17,151

15,000

10,000
6,661
5,000
293

324

454

566

1,088

1,389

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2008

2009

2,524

1,547

2000

7,340

2006

0

2007

2010

2013

RoW

88

56

80

77

29

10

105

42

76

80

284

508

n/a

n/a

MEA

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

0

0

1

1

22

55

125

365

383

China

19

5

19

10

10

8

10

20

40

160

500

2,500

3,500 11,800*

2

3

30

48

61

82

110

166

306

500

1,082

2,181

3,774

126

128

190

230

282

304

325

271

530

745

1,578

2,562

4,646

9,833

58

133

134

202

705

985

997

2,023

5,708

5,833

13,651

22,259

17,726

10,975

293

324

454

566

1,088

1,389

1,547

2,524

6,661

7,340

17,151

30,133

30,011

38,352

Americas
APAC
Europe
Total

RoW: Rest of the World. MEA: Middle East and Africa. APAC: Asia Pacific.
Methodology used for RoW data collection has changed in 2012.
*This number could be increased to 12,920 MW.

Figure 2 - Evolution of global annual installations 2000-2013

18 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

5,362

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

China became the top PV market in the world in 2013 and achieved the world’s largest PV installation figure in one year with 11.8 GW connected to the grid, after Italy installed 9.3 GW in 2011 and Germany installed between 7.4 GW and 7.6 GW from 2010 to 2012. Japan scored 6.9 GW and took the second place in 2013, while the USA installed 4.8 GW.
Europe’s market had progressed rapidly over the past decade: from an annual market of less than 1
GW in 2006 to a market of over 13.7 GW in 2010 and 22.3 GW in 2011 - even in the face of difficult economic circumstances and varying levels of opposition to PV in some countries. But the record performance of 2011, driven by the fast expansion of PV in Italy and a continued high level of installations in Germany, was not repeatable and the market went down to 17.7 GW in 2012 and almost 11 GW in
2013, the lowest market level since 2009.
After holding the world’s top PV market position seven times in the last 14 years, Germany was only fourth in 2013 with 3.3 GW, and yet still by far the largest European market. The UK was the second European market with 1.5 GW. Italy, which was the second European market in 2012, installed more than 1.4 GW in 2013, down from 3.6 GW the year before and 9.3 GW in 2011. Other European countries that installed more than 1 GW are Romania (around 1.1 GW) and Greece (1.04 GW).
Together, China, Japan, the USA, Germany and the UK accounted for nearly 28.3 GW, or threequarters of the global market over the last year. This is even higher than in 2012 when together the top-five global markets represented around 65%.
Regionally, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which in addition to China and Japan includes Korea,
Australia, Taiwan and Thailand, scored first place in 2013 with close to 56% of the global PV market.
Europe came second with almost 11 GW out of 38.4 GW or 29%. The third leading region is North
America, with Canada developing steadily alongside the USA. Elsewhere, the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) region represents untapped potential for the medium term. PV also shows great potential in South America and Africa, where electricity demand will grow significantly in the coming years and numerous projects that have started will lead to installations in 2014 and after.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 19

Figure 3 - Global PV regional installations per habitant

20 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

North America
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

Latin America
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

13,446 MW
28.6 W/hab

281 MW
0.9 W/hab

Europe
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

Africa
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

81,488 MW
125.1 W/hab

422 MW
1.1 W/hab

Middle East
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013
530 MW
10.9 W/hab

3,248 MW
108.3 W/hab

37,344 MW
11.5 W/hab

Oceania
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

Asia
Cumulative 2013
W/habitant 2013

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

3. European market development

Europe’s strong PV market development until 2012 was the result of a few countries taking the lead year after year, with German policymakers showing a constant commitment to supporting the development of PV. After the Spanish boom in 2008, Germany alone was the leading market in 2009, and consequently European growth as a whole was limited. In retrospect this can be seen as a consequence of the first phase of the financial crisis but also as a year of stabilisation after the boom PV experienced in 2008. Major growth returned in 2010, with Germany achieving unprecedented installation numbers, and Italy and the Czech Republic adding together close to 3.8 GW of PV systems.
Spain and the Czech Republic demonstrated that overheated market development can produce a boom in one year and a bust in the next, as a result of pressure from conventional energy producers and policymakers concerned about the rapid growth of the market. In 2011, the combined boom in Italian connections and German installations led again to huge growth. France’s growth in 2011 was at least partly due to its connection of projects installed in 2010 and consequently in 2012 the French market went down as expected. In 2012, the record year for Germany allowed the European market to maintain a reasonable level of 17.7 GW of installations, with 11.4 GW coming from Germany and Italy alone. Aside from these two, the UK, Greece, Bulgaria and Belgium provided a large part of the European market development.
In 2013, the decline of Germany and Italy as the main drivers of the European market was confirmed. While the sum of the market in other countries remained around 6 GW, the drop in installations in Germany and Italy decreased the total European market to nearly 11 GW. In 2013, the decline of markets that performed well in recent years, such as Belgium or France, was compensated by the boom in Greece and Romania, although, depending on the political circumstances, these latter markets could see a serious decline in the coming years. The rest of the European market development took place in the UK, but also smaller-sized markets such as Switzerland, the Netherlands, Austria, and
Belgium still showing progress.

25,000
22,259

20,000
17,726

15,000

13,651

MW

10,975
10,000

5,708

5,833

2008

2009

5,000
2,023
58

133

134

202

2000

2001

2002

2003

705

985

997

2004

2005

2006

0

2007

2010

2011

2012

2013

Spain

Belgium

United Kingdom

Austria

Rest of Europe

Germany

Italy

Greece

Denmark

Romania

Total Europe (until 2004)

Czech Republic

France

Bulgaria

Netherlands

Figure 4 - Evolution of European new grid-connected PV capacities 2000-2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 21

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

The cumulative evolution shows a similar story, with countries stabilising their installed capacity after major growth years, as Germany continues to expand its PV base, albeit at a slower speed than in previous years. While the 80 GW mark has been reached in Europe, the pace of PV market deployment has been clearly reduced, which will have consequences for the ability of PV to reach high penetration levels in the short to medium term in Europe.

90,000
81,488
80,000
70,513
70,000
60,000
52,764
50,000
MW
40,000
30,505
30,000
16,854

20,000
11,020
10,000
129

265

399

601

1,306

2,291

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

3,289

5,312

2006

2007

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Spain

Czech Republic

Romania

United Kingdom

Rest of Europe

Germany

Italy

Belgium

France

Greece

Total Europe (until 2003)

Figure 5 - Evolution of European PV cumulative installed capacity 2000-2013

Germany saw steady growth for nearly a decade and clearly represents the most developed PV market, despite the 2013 market downturn. Countries which got a later start – the Czech Republic,
Italy, Greece and Belgium – quickly reached high levels, and decreased rapidly afterwards. Next to these leaders, Spain now appears quite low since its market has been constrained. The results for
France and the UK still reveal untapped potential in both countries, but with different trajectories.
While the French market significantly decreased in 2013, the UK unexpectedly almost doubled its annual installed capacity during that year. Indeed, in 2013, the UK installed more than Italy, becoming together with Germany the main drivers of the European market.

22 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

Europe’s PV development was unrivalled for a decade until 2013. The USA and Japan, once PV pioneers, used to be behind Europe in terms of PV penetration, yet China has reached their level with just a few years of fast development. Apart from Australia, the rest of the world scores quite low in terms of PV penetration, although in many countries there remains great untapped potential, especially in the Sunbelt.
For the most part, the development of PV has until now corresponded with economic development; after taking root in OECD countries (Europe, North America, Japan, Australia), it has started to reach emerging countries. While the BRIC countries score low as a bloc, China and India will lead Brazil and possibly Russia by example. Africa scores last on the development list, though projects are piling up fast.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 23

2

0.02
4

0.1
0.3

98
0.7

2

56
0.2

40

14
207
97
72

2

92
103

5

0.2

26

28
54
Legend
Market
2012
(MW)

>750 W/habitant
500-750 W/habitant
350-500 W/habitant

200-350 W/habitant
100-200 W/habitant
50-100 W/habitant
10-50 W/habitant
1-10 W/habitant
0-1 W/habitant
N/A

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia

Cumulative
2012
(MW)

Market
2013
(MW)

Cumulative
2013
(MW)

W/habitant
2013

175
683
843
0
7
116
316
0
0
1,115
7,604
912
8
0
3,759
0

363
2,768
1,010
0
17
2,087
332
0
11
4,060
32,411
1,536
12
3
16,479
1

250
215
10
20
15
88
216
0
0
613
3,304
1043
10
0
1,448
0

613
2,983
1,020
20
32
2,175
548
0
11
4,673
35,715
2,579
22
3
17,928
1

72
268
140
5
28
207
98
0.1
2
71
436
229
2
0.7
294
0.3

Market
2012
(MW)
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom

Cumulative
2012
(MW)

Market
2013
(MW)

Cumulative
2013
(MW)

W/habitant
2013

6
0
4
195
0
4
70
46
15
122
332
8
226
5
130
925

6
30
16
360
0
7
242
51
523
201
5,221
22
437
12
326
1,829

0
0
7
305
0
1
36
1,100
0
11
118
18
300
6
290
1546

6
30
23
665
0
7
278
1,151
524
212
5,340
40
737
18
616
3,375

2
56
54
40
0.02
0.2
26
54
97
103
116
4
92
0.2
14
53

Country regional data must be considered an approximation.

Figure 6 - European PV installations per habitant
EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 24

B. THE MARKET IN EUROPE IN 2013 AND THE FORECAST UNTIL 2018

With almost 11 GW of new PV capacity in 2013, Europe has increased its cumulative capacity base to
81.5 GW. This relatively low 2013 result was mainly caused by the significant decrease of two markets,
Germany and Italy, while the total size of other European markets remained stable around 6 GW
(including the UK which ranked second in 2013). Several other key countries also underperformed, notably France, Belgium and Denmark.
1. Relevant European markets in 2013

The overall decline in Europe’s PV market in 2013 hides various realities at national level; market evolution was very different from one country to another. The development until 2013 was accompanied by a progressive evolution in market dynamics, with PV in 2013 becoming increasingly self-sustainable in several market segments and countries. With PV’s levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) now lower than the price of retail electricity, at least in the residential and commercial segment in Germany or Italy, PV development could be at least partially driven by self-consumption rather than only FiTs or similar support schemes.
But the competitiveness of PV installations not only depends on the ability of PV to reduce electricity bills, but also to sell excess electricity on the markets. From this point of view, 2013 was a difficult year, with several countries backtracking from previous commitments, through measures aimed at discouraging prosumers (Spain) or increasing grid costs for PV systems (Bulgaria, Belgium – although subsequently revoked). In addition, several countries took retrospective measures that reduced the revenues of existing PV plants in the last few years (Spain, Czech Republic, Greece…), damaging the attractiveness of PV as a long-term investment and penalising the market in these countries.
For the first time in years, the installations in Germany went down to 3.3 GW. Germany saw three consecutive years with a roughly stable 7.4-7.6 GW of connections, leading to a total installed capacity in the country of a record 35.7 GW. However, regulatory changes pushed the market down.
While the UK has approached the one GW mark in recent years, 2013 can be considered as a record year for the country. With 1.5 GW installed last year, the UK took the position of second European market over Italy.

Rest of Europe (3%)
Belgium (2%)
Denmark (2%)
Austria (2%)
Ukraine (3%)
Switzerland (3%)
Netherlands (3%)
France (6%)
Greece (9%)

Germany (30%)
Total installed capacity 10,975 MW

Italy (13%)
Romania (10%)
United Kingdom
(14%)

Figure 7 - European PV market split in 2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 25

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

In Italy, 1.4 GW of PV were connected to the grid in 2013, a sharp decrease compared to 2011 and
2012, causing it to lose the second place position it held for some years. In fact, after the rush of 2011 and 2012, the Italian market has dropped down to a level that nevertheless remains the third highest in
Europe. Having reached a financial cap for FiTs, the Italian market is now experiencing the transition to the post-FiT era with a substantial market level decrease.
Other European markets together represented roughly the same level of installations as in 2011 and
2012, but the countries that significantly contributed were rather different from one year to another. In
2013, two countries installed slightly more than 1 GW of PV: after several years of expectations, Romania installed around 1.1 GW in only one year, a fast development level that is probably not going to be maintained there. A vigorous market saw Greece cross the one GW mark again with 1.04 GW installed, but without clear perspectives for 2014.
Amongst the countries that installed at least 1 GW in the last few years, France disappointed with only
613 MW installed in 2013, a sharp decline compared to 2011 and 2012, due to political uncertainty and a lack of political will to develop PV. In addition, government decisions to hastily freeze or reduce support mechanisms as well as opposition from the main conventional stakeholders led to a negative image of
PV technology in the public eye. With 613 MW of PV in 2013, the country is still performing at rather low levels compared to the largest European markets and below 2011 when it scored 1.77 GW. While the government reconfirmed in 2013 its will to allow 1 GW of new capacity be installed every year, the constraints on market development remain significant.

26 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

Denmark had been one of the surprises of the year 2012 with 316 MW, but the boom was stopped in
2013 by a change in the net-metering policy: the compensation period which was an entire year in 2012 was reduced to an hour, reducing the attractiveness of PV in this country. Nevertheless the market level established itself at 216 MW. Austria installed around 250 MW and Switzerland 300 MW, in a growing market. The net-metering system in the Netherlands performed quite well and the country installed around 305 MW of new PV installations in 2013.
Belgium installed only 215 MW in 2013, after having reached high levels in 2011 and 2012, in a context of strong political concern over the cost of support schemes and long discussions about retrospective measures and additional grid fees for prosumers. Bulgaria experienced a boom in 2012, with a total of
843 MW installed before the government reacted with harsh retroactive measures to slow the market growth. The consequence in 2013 was clear with the country’s market slowing down to only 10 MW.
The Czech Republic’s boom is a story from the past and the market only reached 88 MW in 2013, significantly below the 2012 level when 116 MW were installed. Some countries, notably Poland, failed to fulfil expectations in 2013 and the prospects for 2014 remain weak, despite some potential.
In the Spanish context of economic crisis, huge overcapacities in the electricity sector and strong opposition to PV from the authorities and some electricity stakeholders, the decisions taken in 2013 resulted in a reduction of the market to a very low level. Only 118 MW were connected to the grid in 2013 in a country which has the potential to be among the European leaders. The long-expected net-metering scheme was never introduced and the self-consumption policy that was presented in 2013 will not allow
PV to develop in the coming years: the levy imposed on prosumers, combined with dissuasive tariffs for grid connection, appears to be the most constraining regulation in Europe for self-consumption.
Ukraine’s PV development continued in 2013 with 290 MW installed, a level that can be compared to
2011 and 2012. The turmoil in the country didn’t really affect the market in 2013 but could be much more damaging in 2014, especially in the Crimea, where the Ukrainian government stopped support schemes due to the geopolitical crisis. Slovakia, which experienced a relative boom at the end of 2011 and the first semester of 2012, went down to zero in 2013. Slovenia, which grew over several years and installed 122 MW in 2012, went down in 2013 to 11 MW.
The development level in Russia remained quite low with only a few MW installed and few prospects in the short term. Sweden has seen several MW installed each year (18 MW in 2013) but without significant policies and prospects.
Turkey remained quite low at around 6 MW despite its potential, but the situation could change in 2014.
Several other countries have reported some MW installed but without representing any significant change at European market level.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 27

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2. Segmentation

The European PV market remains quite varied, with very diverse segmentation from one country to another (Figure 8). The market segmentation has been split to distinguish between ground-mounted systems, commercial and industrial rooftop applications and residential applications.

100
90
80
70
60
%

50
40
30
20
10

Ground mounted

Industrial

Ita
N
ly et he rla nd s Po rtu ga l Be lg iu
Sw
m itz er la nd
De
nm ar k
H
un ga ry
Po
la nd Sl ov en ia Sl ov ak ia Sw ed en
Au
C ze st ch ria
Re
pu bl ic

Sp ai n
Ki
ng do m
G
er m an y G re ec e U ni te d Ro m an ia Bu lg ar ia Fr an ce

0

Commercial

Residential

Figure 8 - European PV market segmentation by country in 2013

The segmentation is not classified according to standard sizes, since the size of system largely depends on the respective structure of support schemes, country by country. In general, the commercial segment should be distinguished from the residential segment not only according to the system size but also the nature of the investor (private or public person) and the respective regime of retail electricity prices. The same classification can be applied to distinguish between commercial and industrial segments, according to the electricity price contracts.

28 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2012

Ground mounted
(28%)

2013

Residential (21%)

Ground mounted
(34%)

Total installed capacity 17,726 MW

Industrial (19%)

Residential (22%)

Total installed capacity 10,975 MW

Commercial (32%)

Industrial (17%)

Commercial (27%)

Figure 9 - European PV market segmentation in 2012 and 2013

Market segmentation in Europe evolved in 2013 compared to previous years. Given the 2012 and
2013 changes in regulatory frameworks, the ground-mounted segment was expected to decline in
Europe in 2013. This was not the case and ground-mounted plants represented a higher share of a reduced market in 2013. Overall a very large share of the market in Europe is still concentrated in the commercial and industrial rooftop segments; this trend will continue, based on the foreseen evolution of the legal framework. The residential segment has developed very rapidly in some countries, such as Belgium (where 1 out of 13 households are now equipped with a PV system),
Denmark, Greece and the UK.

100
90
80
70
60
%

50
40
30
20
10

Ground mounted

Industrial

Ita ly G re ec e Sl ov en
N
ia et he rla nd s Au st ria
Be
lg iu Sw m itz er la nd De nm ar k H un ga ry Po rtu ga l Sl ov ak ia Sw ed en

an i a

Bu l Ro m ga ria Sp ai n
Po
U ni la te nd d Ki ng C ze do ch m
Re
pu bl ic
Fr
an ce G er m an y

0

Commercial

Residential

Figure 10 - European PV cumulative capacity segmentation by country in 2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 29

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

The top five countries per segment show the relative domination of the largest markets (Germany, Italy,
UK and France).

Residential

Rest of Europe
(25%)

Commercial

Germany (24%)

Rest of Europe
(16%)

Germany (38%)

France (8%)

Denmark (9%)

Total installed capacity 2,415 MW

Italy (9%)

Total installed capacity 2,963 MW

United Kingdom
(17%)
Netherlands (10%)

Greece (11%)
United Kingdom
(18%)

Italy (15%)

Industrial

Ground mounted

Rest of Europe
(9%)

Rest of Europe
(9%)

Belgium (2%)

Italy (32%)

Switzerland (10%)

Germany (23%)

Italy (5%)

Germany (31%)

France (9%)
Total installed capacity 1,866 MW

Total installed capacity 3,731 MW
United Kingdom
(16%)
Greece (24%)

Romania (30%)

Figure 11 - Top 5 European markets per segment in 2013

3. Forecasts of PV in Europe until 2018

Forecasts for PV installations in the previous edition of the Global Market Outlook proved to be correct.
The 2013 global market figure of 38.4 GW indeed represents the average from the Low Scenario (28
GW) and the High Scenario (48 GW) in last year’s edition.
The European PV market peaked in 2011 with more than 22 GW installed. Such a high level was not sustainable and the market went down to 17.7 GW in 2012. The 2013 market declined further to nearly
11 GW, which is the lowest level since 2009 in Europe. While the market slowdown in Germany and Italy was predictable and expected, the stability of the rest of Europe (considered as a whole) should not be misinterpreted. What could appear at first sight as a sign of more sustainable market development in these countries is revealed as something different after an in-depth examination of the remaining 5-6 GW. Each year, some markets boomed before experiencing a bust in the following years, and the market was shoredup by different countries every year. The picture is clearer when looking at the countries that installed close to or at least 1 GW each year (outside of the top two countries); in 2011, Belgium, France, and the UK; in
2012, France again, the UK, Greece and Bulgaria; in 2013, Italy and Greece again, and Romania.

30 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

The instability of markets in Europe leads to the important conclusion, for market forecasts in Europe that, with the exception of a comparably soft landing of the market in Germany, no country that experienced a serious PV boom once has so far succeeded in restoring market confidence. On the contrary, policymakers seem to have ensured that in these countries PV would not be allowed to reach the same market levels reached previously. This was the case in Spain, Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Bulgaria, and most probably in Belgium and Italy. The number of markets in Europe where PV hasn’t developed yet remains limited and considering past experience, a further overall market decline could emerge if particular countries replicate the pattern of boom and bust seen elsewhere in Europe.
Overall, the future of the European market is uncertain for the coming years. The drastic decrease of some FiT programmes will push some markets down in 2014, with a limited number of emerging markets in Europe that could offset any major decline. Given these new conditions, the short-term prospects for the European markets are stable in the best case, and could even decline. In the Low
Scenario, without support from policymakers for PV, the transition to a cost-competitive PV market driven less by financial support schemes could be difficult over the five years to come, with a rather low market in Europe (around 6-8 GW). In the High Scenario, the market could stabilise in 2014 and grow again from 2015 onwards, driven by the approaching competitiveness of PV and emerging markets in Europe.
This would require a stabilisation in the largest European markets (Germany, Italy), a continuation of current policies in the UK and a renewed uptake in Spain and possibly France, and a soft landing of markets in the final years before 2018 (especially in Greece and Romania). The contribution of middlesize markets such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria and Portugal could help maintain the market at its 2013 level during the coming years.

25,000
22,259

20,000
17,726

17,185
16,080
14,505

15,000

13,651

13,045

MW

13,655

10,975
10,000
6,852
5,708

2009

7,449

7,955

8,290

5,833

2008

6,983

5,000
2,023
705

985

997

202

2003

2004

2005

2006

0

Historical data

2007

High scenario

2010

2011

Low scenario

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Medium scenario

Figure 12 - European annual PV market scenarios until 2018

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 31

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

In the highest probability situation, 2014 will see a new market decline in Europe that could limit the amount of new connections to around 8-9 GW, while competitive PV in several key countries could help maintain the market at around 10-12 GW in the second part of the decade.
The total installed capacity in Europe could reach between 119 and 156 GW in 2018, starting from 81.5
GW at the end of 2013. In the best case, the 100 GW mark could be reached by 2015 in Europe.

180,000
155,958

160,000
138,773
140,000
122,693
120,000

108,188

119,017

94,533

100,000
MW

102,772

81,488
80,000

110,727

95,323
88,340

70,513
52,764

60,000
40,000

30,505
16,854

20,000

11,020
601

1,306

2,291

3,289

5,312

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

Historical data

2008

High scenario

2009

2010

2011

Low scenario

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Medium scenario

Figure 13 - European cumulative PV market scenarios until 2018

The countries where PV has not developed until now will be interesting to follow in the coming years, because of their untapped potential but also for the unique opportunity to witness a different market development than what was experienced until now in most European countries. The history of PV proves that a stable policy framework using support schemes in a sustainable way increases market confidence. Poland, Croatia, Hungary and to a lesser extent Ireland could develop in the coming years in various forms. Outside of the European Union, Turkey and some Balkan states will become focal points. Amongst the “old” markets, the rebirth of France, at the heart of the European grid, should be carefully followed and encouraged in a way that suits the specifics of this country. In a similar way, PV will not redevelop in Spain unless solutions can be found to the relative isolation of the country from a grid perspective. Finally, the concept of prosumers seems to increasingly generate interest, but its materialisation in real markets remains unsure, depending also on regulatory framework conditions, including the allocation of charges and taxes. In 2013, the sum of installations that were at least partially driven by self-consumption in Europe amounted to over 2 GW. The question is how fast prosumers will become central actors of PV development in Europe.

32 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

4. 2020 potential and targets in the EU

 Potential vs. market reality for PV deployment in the EU
EPIA’s report “Connecting the Sun: Solar photovoltaics on the road to large-scale grid integration”, published in 2012, identifies several possible PV deployment scenarios to 2020 and 2030 that represent the technology’s potential in line with the current economic and regulatory environment.
• The Baseline scenario envisages a 4% share of the electricity demand in the EU provided by PV in 2020. This represents about 130 GW of cumulative capacity by 2020. In 2030, PV could represent up to 10% of the electricity demand.
• The Accelerated scenario, with PV meeting 8% of the demand, represents about 200 GW of cumulative capacity by 2020. In 2030, PV could target up to 15% of the electricity demand.
EPIA has compared various PV market forecasts until 2018 against the two scenarios developed in the
“Connecting the Sun” report as described above, as well as the NREAPs:
• The Low Global Market Outlook Scenario for PV until 2018 that used to be aligned with the
4% target (Connecting the Sun’s Baseline scenario) appears now to be slightly higher. This represents a rather stable perspective compared to previous EPIA forecasts. Thus, it looks reasonable to expect that 4-5% penetration for PV could be reached even in the low growth case
• The High Global Market Outlook Scenario for PV until 2018 appears increasingly unlikely to be fully realised. While this scenario of reaching 8% by 2020 looked coherent and in line with optimistic market expectations, the current political backlash has led to a revision of this objective downwards to around 7%. Reaching a substantially higher share would require a real paradigm shift in the way PV is supported and incentivised, even after cost-competitiveness is reached in many countries and market segments. It is clear today that more ambitious scenarios are not realistic options anymore and would require tremendous market developments, currently unsupported by public policies in Europe
• The NREAPs as devised in 2009 are far from the reality of today’s PV market. Apart from Germany and Greece (which defined ambitious targets), market evolution in most countries could easily overtake the action plans. Future expectations largely reflect the current balance of installations, with Germany and Italy dominating the market. In the EU forecasts, the NREAPs targets with the intermediary value for 2015 have been taken into account. The extent to which they have underestimated the market developments from 2012 and even 2013 is obvious (Figure 14)

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 33

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

The following table details for most EU markets the cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2013, the official National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) target for PV by 2020 and the necessary yearly market to reach this 2020 target (linear projection).

Cumulative installed capacity in 2013

NREAPs’
2020 target for PV

Necessary yearly market until 2020

Target reached in…

Market in 2011

Austria

613

322

n/a

reached in 2012

Belgium

2,983

1,340

n/a

reached in 2011

Bulgaria

1,020

303

n/a

Croatia

20

52

Czech Republic

2,175

1,695

Denmark

548

Market in 2012

Market in 2013

92

175

250

996

683

215

reached in 2012

135

843

10

4.5

2014-2015

-

-

20

n/a

reached in 2010

12

116

88

6

n/a

reached in 2010

9.6

316

216

France

4,673

4,860

26.7

2014-2015

1,777

1,115

613

Germany

35,715

51,753

2,291.2

2014-2015

7,485

7,604

3,304

Greece

2,579

2,200

n/a

reached in 2013

426

912

1,043

Hungary

22

63

2014-2015

2.0

8

10

Italy

17,928

8,000

n/a

reached in 2011

9,251

3,759

1,448

Netherlands

665

722

8.1

2014-2015

58

195

305

Poland

7

2

n/a

reached in 2012

1.3

4

1

Portugal*

278

720

63.1

2016-2020

38

70

36

Romania

1,151

260

n/a

2014-2015

1.6

46

1,100

Slovakia

524

300

n/a

reached in 2011

321

15

0

Slovenia

212

139

n/a

reached in 2012

43

122

11

Spain

5,340

8,367

432.5

2016-2020

472

332

118

Sweden

40

8

n/a

reached in 2011

4

8

18

United Kingdom

3,375

2,680

n/a

reached in 2013

813

925

1,546

Rest of EU 28

99

308

29.9

2016-2020

24

17

42

Total EU 28

79,964

84,381

630.9

2014-2015

21,961

17,265

10,395

5.9

* In April 2013, a revised Renewable Energy Action Plan - REAP (2009/28/EC Directive) was published, adjusting the 2020 targets for each technology. For solar, the installed capacity target was reduced from 1500 MW to 720 MW.

Target already reached in 2010-2013: Country has significantly underestimated PV’s potential.
Target to be reached by 2014-2015: Country has underestimated PV’s potential.
Target to be reached by 2016-2020: Country has either properly estimated PV’s potential (Germany) or has set measures constraining the market to meet the set target not earlier than 2020.
Source: European Commission, DG Energy, Transparency Platform

Table 1 - NREAPs vs. reality of PV markets in the EU 28

34 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

5. Medium-term scenario for 2030: How much can PV contribute to a binding 2030 target?

EPIA scenarios (published in 2012) show that PV penetration in Europe in 2030 could be between 10% and 15% of electricity demand. As outlined before however, with current market trends it is quite unlikely that the 8% scenario – which would have corresponded to a 15% share in 2030 - will be fully reached by 2020. Building on these trends, and without major changes of policy, a share between 7% and
11% of PV in European electricity demand appears realistic.
The potential for 2020 is roughly twice as high as the levels foreseen in the NREAPs, pushing towards at least 150 GW compared to 84 GW. In fact, with 81.5 GW installed by the end of 2013, the Europewide NREAP target of 84 GW will already be reached in 2014.

600

15%

500

400
10%
GW

300
8%
200

4%
100

84 GW

20
30

20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29

20
20

20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19

20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12

20
13

0

High scenario

Accelerated 2020 (8%) - “Connecting the Sun”

Accelerated 2030 (15%) - “Connecting the Sun”

Low scenario

Baseline 2020 (4%) - “Connecting the Sun”

Baseline 2030 (10%) - “Connecting the Sun”

Historical data

National targets (NREAPs) 2020 (2.4%)

EPIA, “Connecting the Sun: Solar photovoltaics on the road to large-scale grid integration”, 2012.
The percentage indicates the share of electricity demand.

Figure 14 - Cumulative capacity forecast compared to EPIA’s new 2030 scenarios

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 35

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

6. Support schemes in Europe and prospects for PV

This table provides an overview of the support framework status in the most relevant European markets in early 2014.
General political support situation

Political support environment

Austria

Clear FIT evolution in 2014. Self-consumption possible. Administrative barriers could limit market growth.

Belgium

Reduced support to PV for all segments. Streamlined administrative processes. Grid tariff cancelled in Flanders but could be reintroduced. In Wallonia, new scheme could recreate some confidence.

Bulgaria

Very unstable environment. Retroactive grid fees revoked and re-established. Incentives for residential and commercial projects available but administrative procedure complicated and slow.

Croatia

Clear FIT evolution in 2014. Introduction of self-consumption in 2014. Very low cap.

Czech Republic

Reduced tax but environment still hostile to rapid PV deployment. FiT no longer available for PV systems. New legislation foreseen but no details published.

Denmark

Net-metering transformed into quasi- self-consumption. New FiT scheme expected.

France

Clear FiT evolution in 2014. Slow administrative process still in place. FiT bonus for local content no longer available.
Political willingness to increase the market up to 1 GW.

Germany

Clear FIT evolution in 2014, but really low return on investment. Simple and lean administrative process. Risk of grid tariff imposition that could harm the evolution towards self-consumption.

Greece

Clear FIT evolution in 2014. Adverse financial environment limiting development of new projects. Residential PV favoured over large-scale PV plants. Possibility of net-metering. Risk of retroactive changes and delays for FIT payments.

Italy

No FiT available but some direct incentives. Possibility of large-scale PV development due to new support schemes introduced in 2013. Risk of retroactive changes. Complex legislation not always easy to implement.

Netherlands

Net-metering and high electricity prices allowing for a residential market to develop rapidly together with an investment grant.

Poland

New FiT and green certificate scheme under discussion for over two years, no adoption foreseen before beginning 2015.
Could lead to lack of investor confidence.

Portugal

Drastic changes in the FIT schemes affecting small-scale PV development. Large-scale development still slow due to administrative barriers.

Romania

Drastic reduction of the number of green certificates limiting the market growth.

Slovakia

Very low FIT and heavy administrative barriers. Slow administrative process still in place. Very low cap for 2014 (30 kWp).

Spain

Support to PV frozen since 2012 and any new development blocked for several reasons (overcapacity, tariff deficit, etc.).
Heavy and slow administrative processes. Many attempts to revitalise the utility-scale segment without incentives, but no significant development so far. Risk of grid tariff imposition.

Switzerland

Clear FIT evolution in 2014 for large systems. Self-consumption now allowed for residential sector. Long waiting list progressively being cleared.

Turkey

Net-metering scheme for systems up to 500 kW. Administrative process unclear.

United Kingdom

Clear FIT evolution in 2014. Support scheme regularly adapted. Clear and lean administrative processes. Uncertainty for large scale PV development.

Table 2 - Support schemes in Europe and prospects for PV

36 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

C. THE GLOBAL MARKET IN 2013 AND FORECAST UNTIL 2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

1. Global PV market growth

While European electricity demand is stagnating, this is not the case globally and PV growth will continue to be driven by local and global energy demand. The fastest PV growth is expected to continue in
China and South-East Asia in general, with Latin America, the MENA countries and India following. The PV potential of the Sunbelt countries – where PV can already compete with diesel generators for peak power generation without financial support – could range from 60 to 250 GW by
2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030. And with the faster than expected price decrease in PV technology that the industry experienced in recent years, even more countries will see PV as a competitive energy source before the end of this decade.
More than 27 GW of new installations of PV systems occurred outside Europe in 2013, compared to 13.9 GW in 2012, 8 GW in 2011 and 3 GW in 2010. The rapid development of China’s PV market allowed it to take the first position among these countries, followed by a booming Japan (6.9 GW) and the USA with 4.8 GW. All three are expected to continue at the same level or even slightly more in
2014, with China probably above 10 GW for several years.
Australia expanded rapidly in 2011 and 2012 with around 1 GW of new installations, but decreased to
830 MW in 2013. India installed more than 1 GW, finally realising a (small) part of its huge potential. In
Korea, 442 MW were installed, a sign that the market has restarted but remains rather low, constrained by a quota system and some additional incentives. Some other countries experimented with embryonic
PV markets: Taiwan had a 170 MW target for 2013 while Thailand, with a huge pipeline of projects, commissioned 317 MW, and Malaysia, where several manufacturers are producing, appears on the map with 57 MW.
In the Americas, Canada has expanded with 444 MW and Mexico and Peru installed several MW. Brazil and Chile, with their huge potential, have not commissioned many systems yet but the huge pipeline of potential projects in Chile should bring dozens of MW online in 2014. In the Middle East region, Israel remains the only country with a significant market (420 MW in 2013), while Saudi Arabia showed in
2012 and 2013 some interest for PV development that hasn’t yet materialised.

Others (3%)
Thailand (1%)
Korea (1%)
Canada (2%)
Australia (3%)
India (4%)
China (43%)
USA (18%)

Total cumulative capacity 27,377 MW

Japan (25%)

Figure 15 - PV market share outside Europe in 2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 37

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2. Global PV capacity

An examination of the total installed capacity reveals greater contrasts, but differently from the past.
Outside Europe, the market used to be well-balanced, but this was no longer the case in 2013.
The gap has widened dramatically: China now leads the non-European top three, far ahead of Japan despite the growth there and even more than the USA. Their markets which remained under control in most countries until 2012, boomed in 2013 in Japan and China, but slowed down in Australia. In general however, the situation remains relatively disciplined, unlike the boom- and bust observed in several
European countries. With the PV potential progressively unleashed in these three countries, the share of PV installations outside Europe can only increase, ensuring the development of the market globally.

RoW (10%)
United Kingdom (2%)
India (2%)
Greece (2%)
Czech Republic (2%)
Belgium (2%)
Australia (2%)
France (3%)
Spain (4%)

Germany (26%)

Total cumulative capacity 138,856 MW

USA (9%)

Japan (10%)

China (13%)

Italy (13%)

Methodology used for RoW data collection has changed in 2012.

Figure 16 - Global PV cumulative installed capacity share

38 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

3. Forecasts until 2018

In the Low Scenario, the global market could remain between 35 and 39 GW annually in the five coming years. The combination of declining European markets and the difficulty of establishing durable new markets in emerging countries could cause this market stagnation.
While the decline of PV system prices in most markets paused in 2013, the installations that were triggered before that pause compensated for the EU decline. Most important markets outside Europe grew in 2013 and without these lost GW in Europe, the global PV market growth would have been even more impressive and reached well above 40 GW.
PV remains a policy-driven business, where political decisions considerably influence potential market take-off or decline. The highest probability scenario assumes a low market in Europe and a growing market in most emerging regions.

80
69

70
62
60

56
53

52
50

GW

38

40

35

36

38

35

30

2014

2015

2016

2017

30

30

39

17

20
7

10
1

1

1

2

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

7

2008

2009

3

0

Historical data

2010

High scenario

2011

Low scenario

2012

2013

2018

Medium scenario

Figure 17 - Global annual market scenarios until 2018

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 39

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2014

2018

MEA (2%)

MEA (7%)
Europe (20%)

Low scenario

Europe (21%)

35,092 MW

39,010 MW

Americas (14%)
China (36%)

Americas (18%)
China (32%)

APAC (28%)

APAC (22%)

MEA (10%)

MEA (4%)

Europe (25%)

Europe (25%)

High scenario

68,605 MW

51,785 MW

Americas (19%)

Americas (15%)
China (29%)

China (31%)

APAC (25%)

APAC (17%)

Figure 18 - Evolution of global annual PV market scenarios per region until 2018

In the High Scenario, the European market would first grow around 13 GW in 2014 before increasing slowly again to around 17 GW five years from now, a decline from EPIA expectations last year. In that case, the global market could top more than 68.6 GW in 2018.

40 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2014

2018

MEA (1%)

RoW (1%)
MEA (3%)
Europe (51%)

China (18%)

Low scenario

Europe (37%)

China (25%)

173,948 MW

321,400 MW

APAC (19%)
APAC (20%)

Americas (14%)

Americas (11%)

RoW (1%)
MEA (5%)

RoW (1%)
MEA (2%)
Europe (50%)

China (18%)

High scenario

Europe (36%)

China (24%)

430,301 MW

190,641 MW

APAC (18%)
APAC (19%)
Americas (15%)

Americas (11%)

Figure 19 - Evolution of global PV cumulative installed capacity per region until 2018

The Asia-Pacific region, including China, should represent a major share of PV installations in the coming years. In the best case, the world could run up to 430.3 GW of PV systems five years from now, compared to 138.9 GW at the end of 2013.

Methodology used for RoW data collection has changed in 2012.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 41

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

450

430

400
362
350
299
321

300
244

250
GW

245

191

200

282

209
139

150

174

101
100

70
40

50
3

4

5

7

9

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

16

23

2008

2009

0

Historical data

High scenario

2010

2011

Low scenario

Figure 20 - Global PV cumulative scenario until 2018

42 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

2012

2013

2014

2015

Medium scenario

2016

2017

2018

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

4. Forecasts per segment

In 2013 the rooftop segment represented more than 23 GW of total installations, higher than in
2012. With projections of more than 35 GW installed by 2018, this segment should experience stable growth from a global point of view (Figure 21). However, the world PV installation segmentation is changing: last year in a Low Scenario more than 27 GW were expected to be installed in the rooftop segment by 2017. This year, expectations have been lowered to slightly above 20 GW which means a stable market until 2018. This can be explained by a shift towards utility-scale plants in the Sunbelt markets, due to a different nature of the investors and less opposition to ground-mounted PV systems than in Europe.

Rooftop

Utility scale

40,000

35,000

33,060

35,545
33,002

35,000
30,143

29,773

29,418

30,000

30,180

25,530

30,000
25,000

23,152
21,642

25,000

23,040
20,352

MW

20,000

19,381

19,501

20,045

20,000

20,473

16,569
15,312

14,740

17,620

18,538

15,327

15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
5,000

5,000

0

0

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Historical data

2018

2013
High scenario

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Low scenario

Figure 21 - Scenarios for rooftop and utility-scale segments development until 2018

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 43

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2014

2018

MEA (1%)

MEA (2%)
Europe (24%)

Europe (29%)
APAC (24%)

Low scenario

20,352 MW

20,473 MW

Americas (9%)
APAC (35%)
Americas (14%)
China (31%)

China (31%)

MEA (3%)

MEA (1%)

Europe (35%)

Europe (31%)

APAC (31%)

APAC (19%)

High scenario

35,545 MW

30,143 MW

Americas (10%)
China (27%)

Figure 22 - Global rooftop PV market by region until 2018

44 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

China (28%)

Americas (15%)

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

2014
MEA (4%)

2018
Europe (13%)

MEA (12%)

Europe (12%)

APAC (20%)
APAC (18%)

Low scenario

18,538 MW

15,312 MW

Americas (21%)
China (42%)

Americas (24%)
China (34%)

MEA (7%)

Europe (17%)

MEA (16%)

Europe (15%)

APAC (18%)
APAC (14%)

High scenario

33,060 MW

21,642 MW

Americas (25%)

Americas (21%)
China (37%)
China (30%)

Figure 23 - Global utility-scale PV market by region until 2018

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 45

3. MARKET EVOLUTION

5. Future prospects for market development

In 2010 EPIA first published the “Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics” report, aimed at paving the way for the development of PV outside its initial developed markets. The report estimates the development for PV according to two sets of drivers - the country’s attractiveness for investors, which can change rapidly, and the attractiveness for PV (Figure 24). The latter is not related to a country’s political and business environment but rather calculated based on criteria such as the size of the electricity market and PV cost competitiveness (which includes country irradiation level, a key element in PV production possibility). Based on the same methodology as the report, Figure 24 uses data from
2012 and 2013 and gives an updated view of the PV potential in different countries.
Since the publication of the EPIA report in 2010, the following markets have indeed experienced some
PV market development - China, Australia, India and Israel – and several others are expected to grow fast in 2014 and 2016 - Mexico, South Africa and Chile.
However, even in countries considered attractive from a PV perspective, the possibility to develop PV can be dragged downwards by the general local conditions for investors (which includes the size of GDP and political/financial stability).

High

India
Pakistan
Cambodia

Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh

PV attractiveness for counrtry

Vietnam
Iran

China

Indonesia
Turkey

Egypt Kuwait Argentina
Brazil

Mexico
Thailand

Angola
United Arab Emirates

Singapore

Malaysia

Kenya
Algeria
Philippines
Ghana Peru
Tunisia
Zambia
Nigeria
Ecuador
Morocco
Guatemala
Qatar
Colombia
Tanzania

Venezuela
Lebanon

Nepal

Jordan

Senegal

Chile
South Africa
Australia

Israel

Namibia

Low
Low

High
Country investment attractiveness

MEA

China

Americas

APAC

Source: EPIA 2014, Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics, 2010

Figure 24 - PV opportunity mapping of Sunbelt countries

46 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

Europe

4

PHOTOVOLTAICS
IN THE ENERGY
SECTOR

4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

A. POSITIONING PV IN THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX

1. PV positioning in 2013

After having scored the top position in the EU in terms of new added capacity in 2011 and 2012, PV was in second place in 2013 ranking, after wind. With more than 21 GW connected to the grid for PV and wind, these two renewable electricity sources together beat gas and all other sources of electricity.
Following the continued growth of gas capacity in Europe over the last decade, a remarkable fact about
2013 was the negative net installed capacity of gas. Gas installations reached a peak in 2010, with more than 20 GW newly connected to the grid, before falling to negative net numbers in 2013. All other conventional sources of electricity in the best case stagnated in 2013 (nuclear) or lost capacity (coal, oil).

13,000
11,159
10,375

3,000

1,900

1,455

1,216
419

MW
-2,000

-324

220

-19

-40

180

120

10

1

-80

-750
-2,792

Decommissioned Installed

7,491

8,000

-7,000
-7,723
-10,146
-12,000
Wind

PV

Renewables

Gas

Coal

PV

Biomass

Hydro

CSP

Fuel oil

Waste

Nuclear Geothermal

Ocean

Fossil fuels

Source: EPIA, ESTELA, EU-OEA, EWEA, Platts PowerVision, PV CYCLE

Figure 25 - Power generation capacities added in the EU 28 in 2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 49

4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

For the first time in history, the five top sources of newly installed electricity in Europe were renewables, with hydropower, biomass and thermosolar (CSP) following wind and PV. The decline of gas has to be understood in a context of stable electricity demand in Europe in the last decade, existing overcapacities in some regions of Europe, as well as the low price of wholesale power and competition from coal experienced in the last few years.

11,500

10,835
10,335

9,500

7,500

5,500

MW

1,197

1,500

705

419

120

100

Decommissioned Installed

3,500

1

10

-500

-2,500
-2,572

-2,655

-4,500
-5,823

-6,500
Wind

PV

Renewables

Hydro

Biomass

PV

CSP

Nuclear

Waste

Geothermal

Ocean

Fossil fuels

Source: EPIA, ESTELA, EU-OEA, EWEA, Platts PowerVision, PV CYCLE

Figure 26 - Net power generation capacities added in the EU 28 in 2013

50 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

Fuel oil

Gas

Coal

4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

2. Historical positioning

The evolution of new capacities in the last 13 years explains the current situation of the electricity markets in the EU. The addition of dozens of GW of gas, wind and PV have changed the electricity landscape in
Europe, while at the same time, fuel oil plants, coal and nuclear power plants were decommissioned.

120
105

103

100
80
80

60

40

20
7

7
2

2

0

0

0

-20

-13
-19

-24

-40
Wind

Gas

Renewables

PV

Biomass

Fossil fuels

Hydro

CSP

Waste

Geothermal

Ocean

Nuclear

Coal

Decommissioned Installed

GW

Fuel oil

PV

Source: EPIA, ESTELA, EU-OEA, EWEA, Platts PowerVision, PV CYCLE

Figure 27 - Net power generation capacities added in the EU 28 between 2000-2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 51

4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

3. Share of PV in the EU 28

Based on the capacity installed and connected to the grid at the end of 2013, PV can currently provide roughly 3% of electricity demand in Europe, up from 1.15 % at the end of 2010. In Italy, today more than 7.5% of the electricity comes from PV systems connected at the end of 2013. Greece jumped to the same level of electricity demand met with PV as Italy over the space of only three years. In
Germany, this figure is more than 6.5% and Romania reached 2.5% in only one year. Ten other European countries are now meeting more than 1% of their electricity demand with PV, including Belgium and
Bulgaria, with others progressing rapidly.
In most EU countries today, PV contributes to reducing the mid-day peak, competing directly with other peak generators. Considering that peak power generation represents roughly 50% of the electricity demand in Europe, these percentages take on a new dimension: PV can today provide 6% of the peak electricity demand in Europe, more than 15% in Italy and Greece, and more than 13% in Germany. This was achieved in just a few years and again shows how the development of PV electricity in Europe is occurring at a faster rate than almost anyone had expected.
In the current debate on the financing of distribution grid operators, the cost of self-consumption and net-metering-driven installations requires to highlight their precise penetration. Figure 28 shows the real penetration of these compensation measures in European markets. In addition it also shows the breakdown between self-consumed and net-metered electricity from PV systems.

8

7

6

5

%

4

3

2

1

Self-consumption

Net-metering

PV penetration

Figure 28 - PV contribution to the electricity demand in the EU 28 in 2013

52 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

Au st ria
Po
rtu ga N l et he rla nd s

ar k C yp ru s Fr
U
ni an te ce d
Ki
ng do m

De nm M al ta

an ia Sl ov ak ia Sl ov en ia Sp ai n

C ze ch

Ro m ga ria Re pu bl ic Be lg iu m EU
28

an y Bu l er m re ec e

G

G

Ita ly 0

4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

4. PV and the electricity system

The speed at which PV had developed up to now has introduced new challenges for the management of the electricity system. Figure 29 looks at the maximum instantaneous penetration for a set of countries.
The maximum power provided by PV is compared to the load between May and September. In Germany, as much as 49% has been already reached while numbers above 20-25% have been recorded in several countries. Greece reaches a level of PV maximum instantaneous contribution of 77%.
While not all PV systems are producing at full capacity at the same time, mainly due to orientation and weather, the maximum power production from the installed capacity close to the minimum load (which often occurs in Europe in the summer, during sunny weekends) is the signal that power system operators, regulators and also the PV industry have to work together to integrate large amounts of PV electricity into the grids. The challenges, opportunities and solutions for such large-scale integration of PV have been developed in detail in the “Connecting the Sun” study.

67,771 MW

63,363 MW

53,976 MW

37,245 MW

21,279 MW
34,798 MW

11,656 MW

9,529 MW

7,950 MW

6,883 MW

4,652 MW

2,728 MW
4,930 MW

33,716 MW
25,063 MW

23,491 MW
2,224 MW
13,218 MW
2,098 MW

1,978 MW
670 MW

1,374 MW
3,876 MW

Bu lg ar ia G re ec e Re pu bl ic C ze ch

Be lg iu m Sp ai n

Ita ly Fr an ce

G er m

an y 3,043 MW

Max load

Max PV production

Min load

Maximum and Minimum country load profile are considered during mid-day peak between May and September.

Figure 29 - Comparison of PV maximum production and country load profile in 2013

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 53

5

CONCLUSION

5. CONCLUSION

After many years of growth and innovation, the PV industry is again going through a challenging period, with shifting market dynamics and a different geographical focus. In Europe, changing political support has created a climate of uncertainty that will hamper the re-development of the
PV market. But outside Europe, the potential for growth remains intact and the various projects appearing in dozens of countries could transform into real market take-off.
Going forward, the key issues that will play a role in determining how market evolution takes place include:
• Policy: The PV market remains in most countries a policy-driven market, as shown by the significant market decrease in countries where harmful and retrospective political measures have been taken. However, with the right decisions creating smart and sustainable support schemes for PV, markets can continue to grow in a number of countries
• Competitiveness: In some countries in some segments, PV is already competitive with other power sources in terms of levelised cost of electricity. In other countries, it is rapidly moving towards cost-competitiveness. Grid and market integration challenges should be addressed without delay in order not to further hamper future PV development
• Industry consolidation: With a global PV modules overcapacity that is less acute than one or two years ago, prices have stabilised in 2013 and the return to profitability should allow companies to invest again. This could in return lead to prices of new technology declining in the coming years and new markets opening for PV
The enormous potential of solar PV and its benefits for society are more obvious than ever. PV is becoming a mainstream player within the power system. Under all scenarios, PV will continue to increase its share of the energy mix in Europe and around the world, increasingly delivering clean, safe, affordable and decentralised electricity to people.

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 55

GLOSSARY

Alternating Current (AC): Electric current that periodically reverses its direction of flows - 50 times per second (Hz) for Europe, China, East Japan among others and 60 times per second for the USA, West
Japan, Brazil. Solar PV power must be converted from DC (see below) to AC using a power inverter.
Connected capacity: Refers to generating power systems (e.g. PV generators) that have been installed and allowed to inject electricity into the grid. The connected capacity can be expressed in AC or DC according to the country.
Direct Current (DC): Electric current that flows only in one direction. Solar PV power starts as DC and is normally converted to AC using a power inverter.
Feed-in Tariff (FiT): Policy mechanism created and regulated by government to promote investment in
RES (e.g. PV technology). Under FiT schemes renewable electricity producers are offered long-term contracts under which a guaranteed fixed amount of money is paid to them, usually by the utility provider
(national or local), for the energy fed into the grid. The FiT rate is typically set above market rates, offsetting inherent risks in renewable energy production.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
Green Certificate (GC): Tradable certificate that represents the environmental or social benefits of (green) electricity generated from RES such as PV. Green certificates can be purchased both from electricity producers and consumers as a proof of producing or consuming renewable electricity.
Installed capacity: Refers to generating power systems put in place but awaiting the approval of the grid operator to inject electricity into the grid. It should not be confused with connected capacity (see above).
LCOE: Levelised Cost of Electricity. It represents the cost per kWh of electricity and covers all investment and operational costs over the system lifetime, including the fuels consumed and replacement of equipment.
Load: Amount of electric power delivered or required at a specific point or points on a system.
Maximum load: The highest amount of electric power delivered or required at any specific point or points on a system.
Minimum load: The lowest amount of electric power delivered or required at any specific point or points on a system.
Net metering: Compensation scheme that allows electricity consumers to reduce their electricity bills by giving them credit for the electricity produced by their PV system over a certain period of time (usually one year).
Self-consumption: Possibility for any kind of electricity producer to directly use/consume part or all of the electricity produced at the same location (on-site consumption), instantaneously.

56 • EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Table 1
Table 2

Evolution of global PV cumulative installed capacity 2000-2013
Evolution of global PV annual installations 2000-2013
Global PV regional installations per habitant
Evolution of European new grid-connected PV capacities 2000-2013
Evolution of European PV cumulative installed capacity 2000-2013
European PV installations per habitant
European PV market split in 2013
European PV market segmentation by country in 2013
European PV market segmentation in 2012 and 2013
European PV cumulative capacity segmentation by country in 2013
Top 5 European residential PV markets in 2013
European annual PV market scenarios until 2018
European cumulative PV market scenarios until 2018
Cumulative capacity forecast compared to EPIA’s new 2030 scenarios
PV market share outside Europe in 2013
Global PV cumulative installed capacity share
Global annual PV market scenarios until 2018
Evolution of global annual PV market scenarios per region until 2018
Evolution of global PV cumulative installed capacity per region until 2018
Global PV cumulative scenario until 2018
Scenarios for rooftop and utility-scale segments development until 2018
Global rooftop PV market by region until 2018
Global utility-scale PV market by region until 2018
PV opportunity mapping of Sunbelt countries
Power generation capacities added in the EU 28 in 2013
Net power generation capacities added in the EU 28 in 2013
Net power generation capacities added in the EU 28 between 2000-2013
PV contribution to the electricity demand in the EU 28 in 2013
Comparison of PV maximum production and country load profile in 2013

17
18
20
21
22
24
25
28
29
29
30
31
32
35
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
49
50
51
52
53

NREAPs vs. reality of PV markets in the EU 28
Support schemes in Europe and prospects for PV

34
36

EPIA • GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS 2014-2018 • 57

EPIA – the European Photovoltaic Industry Association – is the voice of photovoltaics in Europe, with Members active along the whole solar PV value chain and in neighbouring business sectors. EPIA’s mission is to promote PV electricity in the European market and to give its global membership a strong and unique voice towards European decision makers.

ISBN 9789082228403

© EPIA a.i.s.b.l. - www.epia.org - Printed on environmentally friendly paper - 05/14

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