...Second Order Moment Approach to Real Options Analysis Submitted as a Component of Required Courses for the Award of Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) Honours School of Civil Engineering University of New South Wales Author: Ariel Hersh October 2010 Supervisor: Professor David G. Carmichael i ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date …………………………………………….............. ii 1. ABSTRACT Real options analysis can be used by investors to determine the value of potential investments that offer an owner the right but not the obligation to exercise a strategic decision at a predetermined time and price. Tools which are popular for valuing financial ...
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...Factor………………...................................... 15 Accounting Analysis ................................................ 19 Accounting Analysis Steps .........................................…..19 Screening Ratios ........................................................ .28 Ratio Analysis & Forecast Financials....................….31 Financial Ratio Analysis.........................................…..... 31 Cross Sectional (Benchmark) Analysis ................……..... 32 Financial Statement Forecasting Methodology……....….... 51 Valuations Analysis..................................................52 Method of Comparables............................................... 53 Calculation of WAAC and Cost of Equity……………………….56 Altman’s Z-score……………………………………………………….57 Discounted Dividends.............…………………………………. 58 Abnormal Growth Earnings......................................... 59 Discounted Free Cash Flow..........................................60 Residual Income Valuation Model.................................62 Long Run Average Residual Income Perpetuity…………..63 Appendices.....................…..............................…....44 -3- General Electric Investment Recommendation: HOLD GE/ NYSE Current Price…...$35.63 52 week price range $29.55-37.75 Revenue (2004)...
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...Transparent Models? Discounted cash flow analysis is the most accurate and flexible method for valuing projects, divisions, and companies. Any analysis, however, is only as accurate as the forecasts it relies on. Errors in estimating the key ingredients of corporate value . . . can lead to mistakes in valuation. Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, and David Wessels Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies 1 A Return to First Principles mmauboussin@lmfunds.com Say you had to come up with a fair offer to buy your local dry cleaner and the seller limited the extent of your financial information to the answers to five questions. Which questions would you ask? Chances are you wouldn’t ask how the quarter is progressing or about last year’s earnings, but you would focus on the prospects for cash coming in versus cash going out over time. Sole proprietors understand intimately that the value of their business hinges on the cash flow the business generates. No distributable cash, no value. Cash puts food on the table and pays the mortgage; earnings do not. Equity investors are business buyers. While most shareholders own only a small fraction of a company, they are owners nonetheless. The source of shareholder value, and value changes, is no different than the sole proprietor’s: it’s all about the cash. Most investors don’t think this way. In part, this is because market exchanges readily allow investors to trade cash today for claims on future cash flows, and vice versa, encouraging...
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...INTRODUCTION TO THE COMPANIES CHOSEN * Hero Motocorp: Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two - wheelers, based in India. It got separated from Hero Honda in the year 2010.In 2001, the company achieved the coveted position of being the largest two-wheeler manufacturing company in India and also, the 'World No.1' two-wheeler company in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. Hero MotoCorp Ltd. continues to maintain this position till date. The Board of Directors of Hero Motocorp are Mr. Brijmohan lall Munjal (Chairman), Mr. Pawan Munjal (Managing Director and C.E.O), Mr. Sunil Kant Munjal (Jt. Managing director), Mr. Sumankant Munjal (Non-Executive director) and Mr. Pradeep Dinodia (Non-Executive and Independent Director). * HUL (Hindustan Unilever Limited): In 1931, Unilever set up its first Indian subsidiary, Hindustan Vanaspati Manufacturing Company, followed by Lever Brothers India Limited (1933) and United Traders Limited (1935). These three companies merged to form HUL in November 1956; HUL offered 10% of its equity to the Indian public, being the first among the foreign subsidiaries to do so. Unilever now holds 52.10% equity in the company. The rest of the shareholding is distributed among about 360,675 individual shareholders and financial institutions. The Board of Directors of HUL are Mr. Harish Manwani (Chairman), Mr. Nithin Paranjpe (C.E.O & Managing Director), Mr. R. Sridhar (C...
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...Damodaran INVESTMENT VALUATION: SECOND EDITION Chapter 1: Introduction to Valuation Chapter 2: Approaches to Valuation Chapter 3: Understanding Financial Statements Chapter 4: The Basics of Risk Chapter 5: Option Pricing Theory and Models Chapter 6: Market Efficiency: Theory and Models Chapter 7: Riskless Rates and Risk Premiums Chapter 8: Estimating Risk Parameters and Costs of Financing Chapter 9: Measuring Earnings Chapter 10: From Earnings to Cash Flows Chapter 11: Estimating Growth Chapter 12: Closure in Valuation: Estimating Terminal Value Chapter 13: Dividend Discount Models Chapter 14: Free Cashflow to Equity Models Chapter 15: Firm Valuation: Cost of Capital and APV Approaches Chapter 16: Estimating Equity Value Per Share Chapter 17: Fundamental Principles of Relative Valuation Chapter 18: Earnings Multiples Chapter 19: Book Value Multiples Chapter 20: Revenue and Sector-Specific Multiples 3 16 37 81 121 152 211 246 311 341 373 425 450 487 533 593 637 659 718 760 Chapter 21: Valuing Financial Service Firms Chapter 22: Valuing Firms with Negative Earnings Chapter 23: Valuing Young and Start-up Firms Chapter 24: Valuing Private Firms Chapter 25: Acquisitions and Takeovers Chapter 26: Valuing Real Estate Chapter 27: Valuing Other Assets Chapter 28: The Option to Delay and Valuation Implications Chapter 29: The Option to Expand and Abandon: Valuation Implications Chapter 30: Valuing Equity in Distressed Firms Chapter 31: Value Enhancement: A Discounted Cashflow Framework...
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............................................................. x Conventions Used In This Book .......................................................................xi Craig’s Challenge ........................................................................................... xiii The Excel Modeling and Estimation Series .................................................. xiii Suggestions for Faculty Members ..................................................................xiv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................... xv About The Author ................................................................. xvi PART 1 TIME VALUE OF MONEY ..... 1 Chapter 1 Single Cash Flow ....................................................1 1.1 Present Value ............................................................................................... 1 1.2 Future Value ................................................................................................ 2 Problems .............................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 2 Annuity ...................................................................4 2.1 Present Value...
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...Basics of Corporate Finance May 1994 Basics of Corporate Finance Warning These workbook and computer-based materials are the product of, and copyrighted by, Citibank N.A. They are solely for the internal use of Citi-bank, N.A., and may not be used for any other purpose. It is unlawful to reproduce the contents of these materials, in whole or in part, by any method, printed, electronic, or otherwise; or to disseminate or sell the same without the prior written consent of the Professional Development Center of Latin America Global Finance and the Citibank Asia Pacific Banking Institute. Please sign your name in the space below. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction: Basics of Corporate Finance Course Overview........................................................................................xi Course Objectives ...................................................................................xiv The Workbook...........................................................................................xv Unit 1: Financial Statement Analysis Introduction...............................................................................................1-1 Unit Objectives ........................................................................................1-1 Balance Sheet.........................................................................................1-2 Assets ....................................................................................
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...Basics of Corporate Finance May 1994 Basics of Corporate Finance Warning These workbook and computer-based materials are the product of, and copyrighted by, Citibank N.A. They are solely for the internal use of Citi-bank, N.A., and may not be used for any other purpose. It is unlawful to reproduce the contents of these materials, in whole or in part, by any method, printed, electronic, or otherwise; or to disseminate or sell the same without the prior written consent of the Professional Development Center of Latin America Global Finance and the Citibank Asia Pacific Banking Institute. Please sign your name in the space below. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction: Basics of Corporate Finance Course Overview........................................................................................xi Course Objectives ...................................................................................xiv The Workbook...........................................................................................xv Unit 1: Financial Statement Analysis Introduction...............................................................................................1-1 Unit Objectives ........................................................................................1-1 Balance Sheet.........................................................................................1-2 Assets ....................................................................................
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...Task 1 3 What are the financial management and why it is necessary for an organization? 3 What are the financial objectives of the firm and how they are related to corporate strategy? 4 Corporate strategy is about the choices complete controls create regarding problems like the particular organization the company is in, whether new marketplaces would be joined or whether to take out from current marketplaces. These kinds of choices can commonly have substantial financial effects. If, for example, a decision is taken to enter a new manufacturing company, and current organization in that industry could be bought, or a new organization be started from the beginning (Van Horne, & Wachowicz, 2008). 5 How financial objective can be different in case of non for profit organization. 5 The financial objectives of the not-for-profit organization must agree with the objective of the organization and financial constraints. For example, if the not-for-profit organization is particularly pleased to be an organization, an organization increase national could cause you to lose its appeal. Compose a record of objectives that fit the objective of the not-for-profit organization and are possible objectives (Saunders, et. al. 2006). 6 Define the types of stakeholder a company have and what impact do they possess on the corporate objectives. 6 Internal stakeholders: are the categories that are part of the inner structure of the company: 7 Assess the economic environment of the railway...
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...Absorption: the sharing out of the costs of a cost center amongst the products which use the cost center. Account: a record in a double entry system that is kept for each (or each class) of asset, liability, revenue and expense. Accounting equation: an expression of the equivalence, in total, of assets = liabilities + equity. Accounting period: that time period, typically one year, to which financial statements are related. Accounting policies: the specific accounting bases selected and followed by a business enterprise (e.g. straight line or reducing balance depreciation). Accounting rate of return: a ratio sometimes used in investment appraisal but based on profits not cash flows. Accounting standards: Prescribed methods of accounting by the accounting standards or financial reporting standards regulation body in your jurisdiction. Accruals: (that which has accrued, accumulated, grown) expenses which have been consumed or enjoyed but which have not been paid for at the accounting date. Accruals convention: the convention that revenues and costs are matched with one the other and dealt with in the Profit and Loss (P&L) Account of the period to which they relate irrespective of the period of receipt or payment. Accumulated depreciation: that part of the original cost of a fixed asset which has been regarded as a depreciation expense in successive Profit and Loss (P&L) Accounts: cost less accumulated depreciation = net book value. Acid test: The ratio of current...
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...Sara Lee Equity Analysis and Valuation Valued at 1 April 1, 2007 Analysts: Todd L. Ehlers: todd.ehlers@ttu.edu Michael D. Estes: mikestes@sbcglobal.net Daniel W. Taylor: dtaylor1184@yahoo.com Joseph R. Torres: rhyno1112@sbcglobal.net Table of Contents Page Number Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………… 2 Analysis Snapshot............................................................................................ 2 Company and Industry Overview…………………………………………………………………… 3 Accounting Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 Financial Ratio Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………. 4 Analysts Evaluations……………………………………………………………………………………… 4 Overview of Firm and Industry............................................................................... 5 Industry Overview and Analysis………………………………………………………………………….. 8 Rivalry Among Existing Firms………………………………………………………………………….8 Threat of New Entrants…………………………………………………………………………………. 15 Threat of Substitute Products………………………………………………………………………… 17 Bargaining Power of Buyers…………………………………………………………………………… 18 Bargaining Power of Suppliers……………………………………………………………………….. 20 Characterization of Industry……………………………………………………………………………20 Value Chain Analysis: Key Success Factors…………………………………………………………. 21 Competitive Advantage Analysis…………………………………………………………………………. 23 Cost Leadership……………………………………………………………………………………………. 24 Differentiation……………………………………………………………………………………………….27 Accounting Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………...
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...CLASSIFICATION OF COSTS: Manufacturing We first classify costs according to the three elements of cost: a) Materials b) Labour c) Expenses Product and Period Costs: We also classify costs as either 1 Product costs: the costs of manufacturing our products; or 2 Period costs: these are the costs other than product costs that are charged to, debited to, or written off to the income statement each period. The classification of Product Costs: Direct costs: Direct costs are generally seen to be variable costs and they are called direct costs because they are directly associated with manufacturing. In turn, the direct costs can include: • Direct materials: plywood, wooden battens, fabric for the seat and the back, nails, screws, glue. • Direct labour: sawyers, drillers, assemblers, painters, polishers, upholsterers • Direct expense: this is a strange cost that many texts don't include; but (International Accounting Standard) IAS 2, for example, includes it. Direct expenses can include the costs of special designs for one batch, or run, of a particular set of tables and/or chairs, the cost of buying or hiring special machinery to make a limited edition of a set of chairs. Total direct costs are collectively known as Prime Costs and we can see that Product Costs are the sum of Prime costs and Overheads. Indirect Costs: Indirect costs are those costs that are incurred in the factory but that cannot...
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...Pablo Fernandez Professor of Finance. IESE Business School, University of Navarra Camino del Cerro del Aguila 3. 28023 Madrid, Spain e-mail: fernandezpa@iese.edu January 29, 2013 The equity premium designates four different concepts: Historical Equity Premium (HEP); Expected Equity Premium (EEP); Required Equity Premium (REP); and Implied Equity Premium (IEP). We highlight the confusing message in the literature regarding the equity premium and its evolution. The confusion arises from not distinguishing among the four concepts and from not recognizing that although the HEP is equal for all investors, the REP, the EEP and the IEP differ for different investors. A unique IEP requires assuming homogeneous expectations for the expected growth (g), but we show that there are several pairs (IEP, g) that satisfy current prices. We claim that different investors have different REPs and that it is impossible to determine the REP for the market as a whole, because it does not exist. We also investigate the relationship between (IEP – g) and the risk free rate. There is a kind of schizophrenic approach to valuation: while all authors admit different expectations of equity cash flows, most authors look for a unique discount rate. It seems as if the expectations of equity cash flows are formed in a democratic regime, while the discount rate is determined in a dictatorship. 1. Introduction 2. Historical Equity Premium (HEP) 3. Expected Equity Premium (EEP) 2.1. First studies of the historical...
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...Staples Equity Valuation and Analysis David Lecky Chad Loudermilk Bennett Matkins Kara Reynolds Amanda Rhodes David.Lecky@ttu.edu Chad.loudermilk@ttu.edu Bennett.Matkins@ttu.edu Karereyddd@yahoo.com Amanda.b.Rhodes@ttu.edu Table of Contents Executive Summary……………………………………………………….. 2 Overview of Staples and the Industry………………………………... 7 Five Forces Model……………………………………………………………………….. 9 Rivalry among Existing Firms……………………………………………………….. 9 Threat of New Entrants……………………………………………………………….. 15 Threat of Substitute Products………………………………………………………. 17 Bargaining Power of Buyers………………………………………………………... 17 Bargaining Power of Suppliers…………………………………………………..... 18 Classifying the Industry………………………………………………………………. 18 Key Success Factors……………………………………………………………………. 19 Competitive Advantage Analysis………………………………………………….. 19 Accounting Analysis………………………………………………………. 25 Key Accounting Policies………………………………………………………………. 25 Accounting Flexibility………………………………………………………………….. 26 Evaluation of Actual Accounting Strategy……………………………………… 29 Quality of Disclosure…………………………………………………………………… 30 Screening Ratio Analysis….…………………………………………………………. 33 Revenue Diagnostics………………………………………………………………….. 34 Expense Diagnostics…………………………………………………………………… 37 Potential “Red Flags”………………………………………………………………….. 39 Undo Accounting Distortions……………………………………………………….. 41 Ratio Analysis………………………………………………………………. 44 Liquidity Ratio……………………………………………………………………………. 44 Profitability Ratio……………………………………………………………………….. 56 Capital Structure...
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...STANDARD EDITION Ross Westerfield Jordan FUNDAMENTALS OF CORPORATE FINANCE tenth edition StuDEntS... Want to get better grades? (Who doesn’t?) Prefer to do your homework online? (After all, you are online anyway…) Need a better way to study before the big test? (A little peace of mind is a good thing…) With McGraw-Hill's Connect Plus Finance, ® StudentS get: • Easy online access to homework, tests, and quizzes assigned by your instructor. • Immediate feedback on how you’re doing. (No more wishing you could call your instructor at 1 a.m.) • Quick access to lectures, practice materials, eBook, and more. (All the material you need to be successful is right at your fingertips.) • A Self-Quiz and Study tool that assesses your knowledge and recommends specific readings, supplemental study materials, and additional practice work.* *Available with select McGraw-Hill titles. Less managing. More teaching. Greater learning. InStRuctoRS... Would you like your students to show up for class more prepared? (Let’s face it, class is much more fun if everyone is engaged and prepared…) Want an easy way to assign homework online and track student progress? (Less time grading means more time teaching…) Want an instant view of student or class performance? (No more wondering if students understand…) Need to collect data and generate reports required for administration or accreditation? (Say goodbye to manually tracking student learning outcomes…) Want to record...
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