...about how to plan a social event. In this paper I will describe how to plan a social event properly. I will explain the most important things to consider when planning and how the event could turn out if these steps aren’t followed. Three things to consider when planning Planning a social event can be challenging and rewarding. It takes many different steps to make sure everything is in place and will work out as intended. From parties, ceremonies, weddings, etc. planning is the most important key. There are many different details to consider; however there are three I believe are most important. When planning a social event it is imperative to have a guest list, place to host the event, and choosing activities that will take place. Step 1: Guest list The first step in planning a social event is the guest list. The reason this is so important is because the planner needs to know how many people to accommodate. The guest list is the foundation for the rest of the steps in planning. The planner has to know how big of a place they will need to have the event, how much food to provide, how many chairs to have and the list goes on and on. There should be a rough draft list made, a final guest list, and the guests should have to RSVP so that the planner knows exactly what direction they are going with the event. Without a guest list the event could be disastrous. Second Step: Location, Location, Location! The second step in planning a social event is the picking...
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...Event Planning Marketing Plan Executive Summary Premier Event Guru is a unique Event Management firm in the region with an emphasis on complex event design and management. Our events are intended to evoke an emotional connection through face to face interaction that inspires lasting memories. The company is headquartered in Northern Virginia and mainly serves customers in the Washington D.C Metropolitan area. Our organization will primarily provide event planning services for product launches, meetings, conferences and private celebrations. For these types of events, PEG will coordinate the planning of the event, choose a location, coordinates logistics, and ensure a smooth flow of the event. The company will also provide details such as catering, setting tables at correct times, entertainers performing for their contracted time or valet being adequately staffed. The mission of Premier Event Guru is to provide corporate customers and other executive excellent event planning services. Our main purpose of doing business is to help our prestigious clients achieve their objectives. With this purpose in mind, our team works diligently to ensure we exceed our customers' expectations. The corporate market for event management is steady and profitable. Even in times of economic downturn when some companies are cutting back, others still have product launches and will still need a professional company to organize these events. In summary, the need for corporate...
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...Management Human Capital & Entrepreneurship Business Plan GOZDESI SPECIAL EVENT PLANNING & MANAGEMENT Muhammed Furkan YILDIZ Student Number: C0176KEKE1113 Lecturers : David Hall & Rajendra Kumar Date: 18.02.2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. ExecutiveSummary.....................................................................................................................3 2. BusnessDescription....................................................................................................................3 3. Vision and Mission Statement....................................................................................................4 4. Content of the Business.............................................................................................................4 5. Main Partners.............................................................................................................................5 6. Business Opportunities...............................................................................................................5 7.1. Industry Analysis..........................................................................................................................6 7.2. Location Analysis..........................................................................................................................6 7. Finance...........................................................................
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...TIX4U.COM Marketing Plan Version 1.0 19/04/2012 Presented by: Mohammad Khamis Our Mission To exceed our client’s expectations through professional customer service, in depth event knowledge, outstanding seating selections and a passion for building relationships that last a lifetime. Our Vision To run an online ticket exchange and brokerage company that is more responsive to customer needs by offering clients cutting edge online tools. Plan Overview 1 Year Tactical Plan Plan A: Analyzing and improving, where necessary, Tix4u.com’s web presence. With fast evolution of web designs, applications, and delivery, it is important to perform analysis in several areas to make sure Tix4u.com use of web-technologies matches and exceeds the expectations of our current and future clients. Plan B: Enabling identity management portal.Identity management is simply one login account; one user name for email, files, Banner, WebCT, and every other information technology resource. Currently users have different login accounts for these resources. With the completion of the identity management project every user will login to each resource with the same user name and password. 3 Year Strategic Goals Plan A: The Information Technology Services Client Services and Help Desk are an integral part of providing a top notch user experience. In addition to phone support, Information Technology Services is planning to offer web-based FAQs, online documentation, online...
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...Audioriver Business Plan Audioriver Business Plan 2013 2013-05-16 2013 2013-05-16 Index Page Number Executive summary 2 The Company & The Industry 3 Markets 4 Marketing 5 Finance 7 Milestones- Gantt Chart 9 Event Evaluation 10 Appendix number 1 11 Appendix number 2 16 Appendix number 3 17 References 18 Bibliography 20 Executive Summary Description of festival Audioriver is an international three-day festival, which is one of the biggest in Poland. The main objective is to promote alternative music with an emphasis on the electronic music genre. So far was seven editions of the festival, in the last was attended by around 50 thousand people. Audioriver takes place in the city of Plock in Poland, on the beach by the river Vistula. In 2013, the festival will take place on 26-28 July. Finance Required Audioriver financial requirements are estimated at about 1 million pounds. The main areas of expenditure are: management, event running and...
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...the stage where one can begin to use probabilistic ideas in statistical inference and modelling, and the study of stochastic processes. Probability axioms. Conditional probability and independence. Discrete random variables and their distributions. Continuous distributions. Joint distributions. Independence. Expectations. Mean, variance, covariance, correlation. Limiting distributions. The syllabus is as follows: 1. Basic notions of probability. Sample spaces, events, relative frequency, probability axioms. 2. Finite sample spaces. Methods of enumeration. Combinatorial probability. 3. Conditional probability. Theorem of total probability. Bayes theorem. 4. Independence of two events. Mutual independence of n events. Sampling with and without replacement. 5. Random variables. Univariate distributions - discrete, continuous, mixed. Standard distributions - hypergeometric, binomial, geometric, Poisson, uniform, normal, exponential. Probability mass function, density function, distribution function. Probabilities of events in terms of random variables. 6. Transformations of a single random variable. Mean, variance, median, quantiles. 7. Joint distribution of two random variables. Marginal and conditional distributions. Independence. iii iv 8. Covariance, correlation. Means and variances of linear functions of random variables. 9. Limiting distributions in the Binomial case. These course notes explain the naterial in the syllabus. They have been “fieldtested” on the class of 2000...
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...9781442548473/Berenson/Basic Business Statistics/3e 1 10/08/2014 Three Approaches to Assessing Probability 1. a priori classical probability • based on prior knowledge 2. empirical classical probability based on observed data • 3. subjective probability based on individual judgment or opinion about the probability of occurrence • 4 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) – 9781442549272/Berenson/Business Statistics /2e Important Terms Probability – a numerical value that represents the chance, likelihood, possibility that an event will occur (always between 0 and 1) Event – Each possible outcome of a variable Source: 3748154 5 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) – 9781442548473/Berenson/Basic Business Statistics/3e 9781442549272/Berenson/Business Statistics /2e Events Simple...
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...THE MATHEMATICS OF LOTTERY Odds, Combinations, Systems ∏ Cătălin Bărboianu INFAROM Publishing Applied Mathematics office@infarom.com http://www.infarom.com http://probability.infarom.ro ISBN 978-973-1991-11-5 Publisher: INFAROM Author: Cătălin Bărboianu Correction Editor: CarolAnn Johnson Copyright © INFAROM 2009 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole work or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of formulas and tables, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of Copyright Laws, and permission for use must always be obtained from INFAROM. 2 Contents (of the complete edition) Introduction ...................................................................................... 5 The Rules of Lottery ...................................................................…. 11 Supporting Mathematics ......................................................…....... 15 Probability space ..............................................................…......... 16 Probability properties and formulas used .........................…......... 19 Combinatorics …………………………………………………... 22 Parameters of the lottery matrices …………………………......... 25 Number Combinations .......………….………………………...
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...Unit 2 DB Subjective Probability “ A probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal calculations and only reflect the subject's opinions and past experience.” (investopedia.com, 2013) There are three elements of a probability which combine to equal a result. There is the experiment ,the sample space and the event (Editorial board, 2012). In this case the class is the experiment because the process of attempting it will result in a grade which could vary from an A to F. The different grades that can be achieved in the class are the sample space. The event or outcome is the grade that will be received at the end of the experiment. I would like to achieve an “A” in this class but due to my lack of experience in statistical analysis, my hesitation towards advanced mathematics, and the length of time it takes for me to complete my course work a C in this class may be my best result. I have a 1/9 chance or probability to receive an “A” in the data range presented to me which is (A,A-,B,B-,C,C-,D,D- AND F). By the grades that have been posted I would say that the other students have a much better chance of receiving a better grade than mine. I have personally use subjective probability in my security guard business in bidding on contracts based on the clients involved , the rates that I charge versus the rates other companies charge and the amount of work involved...
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... Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1) Impossible Event – an event that has no chance of occurring (probability = 0) Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur (probability = 1) Assessing Probability probability of occurrence= probability of occurrence based on a combination of an individual’s past experience, personal opinion, and analysis of a particular situation Events Simple event An event described by a single characteristic Joint event An event described by two or more characteristics Complement of an event A , All events that are not part of event A The Sample Space is the collection of all possible events Simple Probability refers to the probability of a simple event. Joint Probability refers to the probability of an occurrence of two or more events. ex. P(Jan. and Wed.) Mutually exclusive events is the Events that cannot occur simultaneously Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2010 A = day in January; B = day in February Events A and B are mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive events One of the events must occur the set of events covers the entire sample space Computing Joint and Marginal Probabilities The probability of a joint event, A and B: Computing a marginal (or simple) probability: Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur The probability of any event must be between 0 and 1, inclusively The sum of the...
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...= {-20, -19, …, -1, 0, 1, …, 19, 20} Number of people arriving at a bank in a day: S = {0, 1, 2, …} Inspection of parts till one defective part is found: S = {d, gd, ggd, gggd, …} Temperature of a place with a knowledge that it ranges between 10 degrees and 50 degrees: S = {any value between 10 to 50} Speed of a train at a given time, with no other additional information: S = {any value between 0 to infinity} 4 Sample Space (cont…) Discrete sample space: One that contains either finite or countable infinite set of outcomes • Out of the previous examples, which ones are discrete sample spaces??? Continuous sample space: One that contains an interval of real numbers. The interval can be either finite or infinite 5 Events A collection of certain sample points A subset of the sample space Denoted by ‘E’ Examples: • Getting an odd number in dice throwing experiment S = {1, 2, 3, 4,...
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...[pic] [pic] Markov Chain [pic] Bonus Malus Model [pic] [pic] This table justifies the matrix above: | | | |Next state | | | |State |Premium |0 Claims |1 Claim |2 Claims |[pic]Claims | |1 | |1 |2 |3 |4 | |2 | |1 |3 |4 |4 | |3 | |2 |4 |4 |4 | |4 | |3 |4 |4 |4 | | | | | | | | |P11 |P12 |P13 |P14 | | | |P21 |P22 |P23 |P24 | | | |P31 |P32 |P33 |P34 | | | |P41 |P42 |P43 |P44 | | | | ...
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...Permutations The word ‘coincidence’ is defined as an event that might have been arranged though it was accidental in actuality. Most of us perceive life as a set of coincidences that lead us to pre-destined conclusions despite believing in a being who is free from the shackles of time and space. The question is that a being, for whom time and space would be nothing more than two more dimensions, wouldn’t it be rather disparaging to throw events out randomly and witness how the history unfolds (as a mere spectator)? Did He really arrange the events such that there is nothing accidental about their occurrence? Or are all the lives of all the living beings merely a result of a set of events that unfolded one after another without there being a chronological order? To arrive at satisfactory answers to above questions we must steer this discourse towards the concept of conditional probability. That is the chance of something to happen given that an event has already happened. Though, the prior event need not to be related to the succeeding one but must be essential for it occurrence. Our minds as I believe are evolved enough to analyze a story and identify the point in time where the story has originated or the set of events that must have happened to ensure the specific conclusion of the story. To simplify the conundrum let us assume a hypothetical scenario where a man just became a pioneer in the field of actuarial science. Imagine him telling us his story in reverse. “I became...
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...presence with probability 0.99. If it is not present, the radar falsely registers an aircraft presence with probability 0.10. We assume that an aircraft is present with probability 0.05. What is the probability of false alarm (a false indication of aircraft presence), and the probability of missed detection (nothing registers, even though an aircraft is present)? A sequential representation of the sample space is appropriate here, as shown in Fig. 1. Figure 1: Sequential description of the sample space for the radar detection problem Solution: Let A and B be the events A={an aircraft is present}, B={the radar registers an aircraft presence}, and consider also their complements Ac={an aircraft is not present}, Bc={the radar does not register an aircraft presence}. The given probabilities are recorded along the corresponding branches of the tree describing the sample space, as shown in Fig. 1. Each event of interest corresponds to a leaf of the tree and its probability is equal to the product of the probabilities associated with the branches in a path from the root to the corresponding leaf. The desired probabilities of false alarm and missed detection are P(false alarm)=P(Ac∩B)=P(Ac)P(B|Ac)=0.95∙0.10=0.095, P(missed detection)=P(A∩Bc)=P(A)P(Bc|A)=0.05∙0.01=0.0005. Application of Bayes` rule in this problem. We are given that P(A)=0.05, P(B|A)=0.99, P(B|Ac)=0.1. Applying Bayes’ rule, with A1=A and A2=Ac, we obtain P(aircraft present | radar registers) =...
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...1.M/G/ Queue a. Show that Let A(t) : Number of arrivals between time (0, t] “ n should be equal to or great than k” since if n is less than k (n<k), Pk(t)=0 Let’s think some customer C, Let’s find P{C arrived at time x and in service at time t | x=(0,t)] } P{C arrives in (x, x+dx] | C arrives in (0, t] }P{C is in service | C arrives at x, and x = (0,t] } Since theorem of Poisson Process, The theorem is that Given that N(t) =n, the n arrival times S1, S2, …Sn have the same distribution as the order statistics corresponding to n independent random variables uniformly distributed on the interval (0, t) Thus, P{C is in service | C arrives between time (0, t] } Since let y=t-x, x=0 → y=t, x=t →y=o, dy=-dx Therefore, In conclusion, ------ (1) 1-a Solution Since b. let 1-b Solution ------------------------------------------------- 2. notation Page 147 in “Fundamentals of Queuing Theory –Third Edition- , Donald Gross Carl M. Harris a. b. ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- 3. a. let X=service time (Random variable) and XT=total service time (Random variable) X2=X+X, X3=X+X+X, ….. f2(x2)...
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