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Examples Of Prosecutor's Fallacy

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One of such is known as the prosecutor’s fallacy. Statistical Consultants Ltd. (2010), stated “prosecutor’s fallacies (with respect to statistics) are fallacies of statistical reasoning that can result and have resulted in miscarriages of justice,” and gave the following example of DNA evidence presented: “Let’s say that a crime scene DNA sample is compared against a database of 20,000 men. The DNA sample matches the profile of one of the men, and that man is accused of the crime. At the trial it is stated that the probability of two DNA profiles matching by chance is only 1 in 10,000. Since 20,000 men were tested, there were 20,000 opportunities to find a match by chance. Even if no one in the database left the crime scene DNA, a match by

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