...Expected Value and Consumer Choices Argosy University Abstract Consumers’ choices are prey to subtle discrepancies that arise in cognitive accounting and identifying how and when you are susceptible is an important step in improving the decision making process (Tvorik, 2014). This paper will consider why people value gains and losses differently in different circumstances by addressing what mental accounting is and how it impacts consumer decision making; and how a company can take advantage of their consumers’ mental accounting (Tvorik, 2014). This writer will also consider different scenarios from differing points of view; as a marketer and as a consumer. As a marketer, this writer will analyze how I would frame certain decisions to benefit from the disparities in my own cognitive accounting. As a consumer, I will address how to avoid the pitfalls posed by the inequalities of again, my own cognitive accounting (Tvorik, 2014). Mental accounting is a term that describes how people categorize and quantify economic outcomes (Thaler, 1980). This is similar to financial accounting in the way of using a system of debits and credits and affects how people spend and save their money, thus consumer decision-making. Mental accounting determines “when an individual chooses to act or postpone a purchase, how he or she perceives gains and losses, and how timing bears on the individual’s choices” in relation to the three mental buckets: current income, current wealth and future...
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...different levels of utility to each asset group, which affects their consumption decisions and other behaviors. The importance of this theory is illustrated in its application towards the economic behavior of individuals, and thus entire populations and markets. Rather than rationally viewing every dollar as identical, mental accounting helps explain why many investors designate some of their dollars as "safety" capital which they invest in low-risk investments, while at the same time treating their "risk capital" quite differently. (Investopedia) Money is fungible, meaning that it is all the same. When budgets are not fungible, their existence can influence consumption in various ways. Frequently, retailers take advantage of consumers’ mental accounting by utilizing the principle of segregate gains which allows a sellers multi-dimensional product to be evaluated separately. In addition, several bonus items are included. One example of the segregate gains principle that comes to mind for me is the Montel Williams’ juicer called the Healthmaster. The product was advertised on television and included the following benefits: one year subscription to company for recipes (for an additional fee), payment over three months for the product so that you did not have to pay it outright, and if you called during the advertisement, you could receive a price discount of $50.00. When the sales person goes through her spill of all the additional benefits that you can receive from...
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...involves making a statement concerning the likely value of an event or action uncertain or unknown at the time of the statement. Since the theory of probability, (inaugurated by the French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre Fermat in 1654), was developed to quantify uncertain events in terms of their likelihood of occurrence, formal prediction is now viewed as a mathematical topic involving probabilistic modeling. Indeed, the mathematician Karl Pearson said in 1907 that the fundamental problem in statistics is prediction. Prediction, however, is usually not an end goal itself, but rather means to put probabilistic bounds on the relative frequency or likelihood of occurrence of future uncertain events so that strategies or actions can be taken incorporating these predictions. Risk management needs predictive analysis, as does economic regulation, engineering control, and marketing effectiveness. This latter use of prediction often involves predicting an individual’s choice (or group’s choice) or preference over alterative options. Preference can be conceptualized as an individual’s (or group’s) attitude concerning a set of objects, and is usually formulated within a choice making context (i.e., X is preferred to Y if one would choose X over Y). In this way choice and preference are linked, and predicting preferences is akin to predicting choices. An auxiliary question is to formulate models that explain “why” or “how” the choices or preferences are formed or exhibited. Applications...
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...C H A P T E R 5 Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior CHAPTER OUTLINE 5.1 Describing Risk S o far, we have assumed that prices, incomes, and other variables are known with certainty. However, many of the choices that people make involve considerable uncertainty. Most people, for example, borrow to finance large purchases, such as a house or a college education, and plan to pay for them out of future income. But for most of us, future incomes are uncertain. Our earnings can go up or down; we can be promoted or demoted, or even lose our jobs. And if we delay buying a house or investing in a college education, we risk price increases that could make such purchases less affordable. How should we take these uncertainties into account when making major consumption or investment decisions? Sometimes we must choose how much risk to bear. What, for example, should you do with your savings? Should you invest your money in something safe, such as a savings account, or something riskier but potentially more lucrative, such as the stock market? Another example is the choice of a job or career. Is it better to work for a large, stable company with job security but slim chance for advancement, or is it better to join (or form) a new venture that offers less job security but more opportunity for advancement? To answer such questions, we must examine the ways that people can compare and choose among risky alternatives. We will do this by taking the following steps: 1. In order to compare the riskiness...
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...The CE is founded on neoclassical micro-economic consumer theory. It assumes that consumers are highly rational decision makers who seek to optimize their utility by selecting the best option among the available alternatives, subject to constraints such as time and income (Ben-Akiva & Lerman 1985). So, a consumer makes a decision by evaluating the costs and benefits of the given alternatives, and selects among them which yields the highest utility to him/her (benefits-cost). In the CE, the choice is discrete in nature (Hanemann 1984), that is, only one alternative from the given choice set can be selected. Therefore, it is also known as discrete choice experiment (DCE). The alternative j will be chosen over some option g, if expected utility for individual, i , (Uij) exceeds the expected utility (Uig) for all alternatives. This implies that the probability of selecting an option is likely to increase with utility from the option and probability (P) that individual, I, will choose option j over other options g in a complete choice set R, is given by: P (jC) = P{ (Uij >Uig, s.t. g Є R, and j ≠g)} (2) Usually, in non-market valuation studies using CE model, respondents are given a choice card containing three alternatives including status-quo (current situation) to select. These alternatives in the choice set are outcomes of policies or programs related to the problem being investigated and distinguished by different levels. The levels could be either qualitative or...
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...|Consumer’s perception of food quality and its relation to the choice of food | |Master thesis | |Master of Science in Marketing | | | |DEPARTMENT OF MARKETING AND STATISTICS | |HANDELSHØJSKOLEN | |AARHUS UNIVERSITET | | | | | | | | ...
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...TeAM YYeP BUSINESS G Digitally signed by TeAM YYePG DN: cn=TeAM YYePG, c=US, o=TeAM YYePG, ou=TeAM YYePG, email=yyepg@msn.com Reason: I attest to the accuracy and integrity of this document Date: 2005.04.20 19:31:36 +08'00' ECONOMICS AND MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING Trefor Jones Manchester School of Management UMIST 4 PART I g CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND BUSINESS OBJECTIVES INTRODUCTION Firms are major economic institutions in market economies. They come in all shapes and sizes, but have the following common characteristics: g g g g g g Owners. Managers. Objectives. A pool of resources (labour, physical capital, ¢nancial capital and learned skills and competences) to be allocated roles by managers. Administrative or organizational structures through which production is organized. Performance assessment by owners, managers and other stakeholders. Whatever its size, a ¢rm is owned by someone or some group of individuals or organizations. These are termed shareholders and they are able to determine the objectives and activities of the ¢rm. They also appoint the senior managers who will make day-to-day decisions. The owners bear the risks associated with operating the ¢rm and have the right to receive the residual income or pro¢ts. Where ownership rights are dispersed, control of the ¢rm may not lie with the shareholders but with senior managers. This divorce between ownership and control and its implication for the operation and performance of the ¢rm is...
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...Postal Address: Kure İletisim Grubu Elmadag, Cumhuriyet Cad. Pegasus Evi 48/3B Taksim 34367 Istanbul / Turkey Customer Experience as a Means of Brand Differentiation Abstract In today’s customer–dominated business world, there exists the “brand indifferentiation” problem that concerns the difficulty of the customers to perceive the differences between a certain brand and its competitors. This situation calls for a close look at the relationship between the consumer behaviour, branding and differentiation. Taking into consideration the proliferation of products, increasing information flow through digital technologies, fast commoditization and competition in today’s world, differentiation and brand positioning relying on traditional frame, have no longer been resulting the expected performance. Constitution of brand differentiation in the minds/hearts of customers entails to re-evaluate the meaning of consumption for consumers, how consumers make their choices, what the brand the consumer prefered means to him, and what can make a brand different than the others for a customer. In this paper, these issues are examined and the solution to indifferentiation is linked with the concepts of “experience” and “experiential marketing”. Key Words: customer experience, branding, differentiation, experiential platform. 1. Introduction Since, a brand is a product, service, or concept that is publicly distinguished from other products, services, or concepts so...
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...making money. Therefore, this essay will apply standard consumer theory to the housing market and clarify the differences of the decision-making process in purchasing a residential dwelling between standard consumer choice theory and behavioral economics. Moreover, the specific characteristics of speculative bubbles in the real estate market in Spain before and during 2008-2012 will be examined. Part 1: Applications of Traditional vs. Behavioral Economics Explanations Consumer choice is about maximizing their satisfaction by using the limited incomes to fulfill their preference (Silberberg and Suen 2001, 252). There are few general assumptions about consumer’s preferences. Firstly, consumer can rank and compare their choices according to their preference. For example, they can decide to prefer residential dwelling to holiday activity, holiday activity to residential dwelling or indifferent between both choices. This is the assumption called completeness (Isaac 1998, 9). Secondly, preferences are transitive. It means that if a consumer prefers residential dwelling to holiday activity and holiday activity to car, then the consumer also prefers residential dwelling to car. Therefore, consumer consistency is necessary for transitivity. Thirdly, consumers usually prefer more goods to less because they are never satisfied and think that more is always better (Pindyck and Rubinfeld 2009, 70). Utility shows the satisfaction of consumer, and it is represented by indifference curves (Silberberg...
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...Question 1 (45 points) Consider a situation where a population of consumers is deciding whether or not to buy a street drug called Bearoin. A researcher observes these consumers’ purchases over two years, 1 and 2. The price of Bearoin changes from year 1 to year 2, as a result of an increased number of sellers in the market. The researcher observes the following prices of the drug, and quantities sold, in year 1 and year 2: The year 1 price of the drug for consumers is P1 = $80. The year 1 quantity consumed at that price is Q1 = 400 1. (5 points) Write down the formula for arc price elasticity of demand in terms of P1, Q1, P2, and Q2. 2. (10 points) What is the arc price elasticity of demand for Beroin? 3. (10 points) Now consider a second, new population of consumers buying the same drug in another location. In this new market: The year 1 price of the drug for consumers is P1 = $80. The year 1 quantity consumed at that price is Q1 = 240 The year 2 price of the drug for consumers is P2 = $20. The year 2 quantity consumed at that price is Q2 = 1000 What is the arc price elasticity of demand for consumers in this second market? 4. (10 points) Now, there is a music festival where both of these populations come together and form one population. They have the same demand for Bearoin at the prices listed above in each market. What is the arc elasticity of demand for this combined population of consumers? 5. (10 points) The researcher now wants to use the arc elasticity...
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...Question 1 (45 points) Consider a situation where a population of consumers is deciding whether or not to buy a street drug called Bearoin. A researcher observes these consumers’ purchases over two years, 1 and 2. The price of Bearoin changes from year 1 to year 2, as a result of an increased number of sellers in the market. The researcher observes the following prices of the drug, and quantities sold, in year 1 and year 2: The year 1 price of the drug for consumers is P1 = $80. The year 1 quantity consumed at that price is Q1 = 400 1. (5 points) Write down the formula for arc price elasticity of demand in terms of P1, Q1, P2, and Q2. 2. (10 points) What is the arc price elasticity of demand for Beroin? 3. (10 points) Now consider a second, new population of consumers buying the same drug in another location. In this new market: The year 1 price of the drug for consumers is P1 = $80. The year 1 quantity consumed at that price is Q1 = 240 The year 2 price of the drug for consumers is P2 = $20. The year 2 quantity consumed at that price is Q2 = 1000 What is the arc price elasticity of demand for consumers in this second market? 4. (10 points) Now, there is a music festival where both of these populations come together and form one population. They have the same demand for Bearoin at the prices listed above in each market. What is the arc elasticity of demand for this combined population of consumers? 5. (10 points) The researcher now wants to use the arc elasticity...
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...Choice Modeling: Marketing Engineering Technical Note 1 Table of Contents Introduction Description of the Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model Properties of the MNL Model S-shaped response function Inverted “U” Marginal response Elasticity of response Proportional Draw Logit Model Estimation via Maximum Likelihood Using Logit Models for Customer Targeting Using Logit Models for Customer Segmentation Determining the number of latent segments in MNL models Summary References Introduction Firms today have access to increasing amounts of market response data at the level of individual customers, including data from scanner panels, direct marketing efforts, online retailing, loyalty programs, and the like. These data include both the marketing effort directed at a customer (e.g., price discount, or specific email sent to that customer) and the associated specific behaviors (e.g., purchase, customer support) of that customer. Consequently, there is also increasing interest among marketers in developing and using response models specified at the individual level. Analyses of individual-level data are useful for firms even for making decisions about aggregate marketing actions, such as TV advertising. After all, markets are composed of individuals, and acknowledging This technical note is a supplement to the materials in Chapter 1,2, and 7 of Principles of Marketing Engineering, by Gary L. Lilien, Arvind Rangaswamy, and Arnaud De Bruyn (2007). © (All rights reserved) Gary L. Lilien...
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...Research proposal Consumer choice of service provision in services industries Birgit Rettinger Author: Dipl.-Kffr. Birgit Rettinger Doctoral Student ESCP-EAP European School of Management Berlin Chair of Marketing (Prof. Dr. Frank Jacob) Heubnerweg 6 14059 Berlin Germany T: ++49 (0) 30 / 3 20 07-129 F: ++49 (0) 30 / 3 20 07-118 birgit.rettinger@escp-eap.de I. Introduction In the past decade the range of service provision modes in services industries has increased considerably especially as information technology got increasingly sophisticated. Accordingly, the phenomenon of multiple service provision options, owned by one company and providing similar services simultaneously is relatively new (Neslin et al. 2006). Moreover, modified consumer habits and lifestyles have led to altered attitudes concerning modes of service provision. At the same time, there has be a growing call for a paradigm shift to customer focus and value creation (see for instance, Sheth and Sisodia 2003). In line with this, the notion of the consumer‟s part in value creation has changed. Consumers now are seen as actively involved in creating value instead of being only passive responders (Beckett and Nayak 2008; Vargo and Lusch 2004; Xie et al. 2008). II. Statement of the Problem and Purpose of the Study The research is intended to focus exclusively on the consumer‟s perspective concerning the choice of service provision in services industries. This is regarded as consistent...
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...Buying behavior with evolution of ecommerce in Fashion Industry Introduction At about 150 million Internet consumers, India now has the third biggest Internet population in the world, next to China (at 575M) and the US (at 275M). According to the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), the total of Social Media users in Urban India reached 66 Million by June 2013 and is expected to cross 80 million users by mid-2014. This clearly demonstrates that India is growing fast and public is becoming habitual of using the Internet as the development of human society, the development in Interaction processes and Digital Convergence open up groundbreaking opportunities and challenges for Marketing. Subsequently, the Internet has moved fast...
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...material in the book. CHAPTER OUTLINE ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR: AN OVERVIEW Economic Choice Marginal Analysis Managerial Application: Marginal Analysis of Customer Profitability Opportunity Costs Managerial Application: Opportunity Costs and V-8 Creativity of Individuals Managerial Application: Creative Gaming of the System GRAPHIC TOOLS Individual Objectives Indifference Curves Constraints Individual Choice Changes in Choice MOTIVATING HONESTY AT MERRILL LYNCH MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS Managerial Application: Medicare Creates Perverse Incentives for Doctors ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF BEHAVIOR Only-Money-Matters Model Happy-Is-Productive Model Managerial Application: Happy-Is-Productive versus Economic Explanations of the Hawthorne Experiments Good-Citizen Model Managerial Application: Culture and Behavior Product-of-the-Environment Model WHICH MODEL SHOULD MANAGERS USE? Academic Application: The Economic Framework and Criminal Behavior Academic Application: Criticisms of the Happy-Is-Productive Model DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY Expected Value Variability Risk Aversion Certainty Equivalent and Risk Premium Risk Aversion and Compensation SUMMARY APPENDIX: CONSUMER CHOICE Marginal Utility Slope of an...
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