...concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and ben efiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applica tions, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories...
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...REASONING SKILLS SUCCESS IN 20 MINUTES A DAY REASONING SKILLS SUCCESS IN 20 MINUTES A DAY 2nd Edition ® NEW YORK Copyright © 2005 LearningExpress, LLC. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Published in the United States by LearningExpress, LLC, New York. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Reasoning skills success in 20 minutes a day.—2nd ed. p. cm. ISBN 1-57685-493-0 1. Reasoning (Psychology) I. Title: Reasoning skills success in twenty minutes a day. II. Title. BF442.C48 2005 153.4'3—dc22 2005047185 Printed in the United States of America 987654321 Second Edition ISBN 1-57685-493-0 For information on LearningExpress, other LearningExpress products, or bulk sales, please write to us at: LearningExpress 55 Broadway 8th Floor New York, NY 10006 Or visit us at: www.learnatest.com Contents HOW TO USE THIS BOOK ix PRETEST 1 LESSON 1 Critical Thinking and Reasoning Skills The importance of critical thinking and reasoning skills, justifying your decisions, the difference between reason and emotion 15 LESSON 2 Problem-Solving Strategies Identifying the main issue of a problem and its parts, prioritizing issues 21 LESSON 3 Thinking vs. Knowing Distinguishing between fact and opinion, determining whether facts are true or tentative truths 27 LESSON 4 Who Makes the Claim? Evaluating credibility: recognizing bias, determining level...
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...RESEARCH METHODS IN CRIME AND JUSTICE CHAPTER 1 – THE RESEARCH PRACTICE Chapter Review Questions Respond to each of the following questions using the information from this chapter. 1. During a recent meeting of the command staff at a mid-sized police department, the chief asks the patrol captain for his recommendation for new flashlights. The captain responds, “I did a little research and I recommend that we purchase the DryLight, Model X flashlight”. The patrol captain’s research consisted of “asking a few of the officers” what they thought would be a good flashlight. Did the patrol captain actually conduct research? Why or why not? ANSWER: Technically, the patrol captain did some research. He conducted interviews which is a form of data collection. One could argue, however, that the patrol captain’s research was limited (pp. 7-8). 2. Respond to the following statement in 3-5 sentences: Conducting research in the social sciences and in criminal justice in particular is easier than in other sciences because the things we measure are so vague that nobody really cares if we get it right or not. ANSWER: Generally speaking, social science research is more challenging than some of the ‘hard sciences’ because the things social scientists study are difficult to measure objectively. As a result social scientists spend a great deal of time justifying how they measure concepts to their peers (pp. 4-5). 3. Read the following scenarios and identify which of the following...
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...THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’llGet-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias 14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias 15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect 16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge 17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control 18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency 19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean 20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias 21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice 22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias 23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect 24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence 25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink 26 WHY YOU’LL SOON BE PLAYING MEGATRILLIONS: Neglect of Probability 27 WHY THE LAST COOKIE IN THE JAR MAKES YOUR MOUTH WATER: Scarcity Error 28 WHEN YOU HEAR HOOFBEATS, DON’T EXPECT A ZEBRA: Base-Rate Neglect 29 WHY THE ‘BALANCING FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE’ IS BALONEY: Gambler’s Fallacy 30 WHY THE WHEEL OF...
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...CHAPTER 9 Behavioural Finance and the Psychology of Investing “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” —Benjamin Graham “There are three factors that influence the market: Fear, Greed, and Greed.” —Market folklore Be honest: Do you think of yourself as a better than average driver? If you do, you are not alone. About 80 percent of the people who are asked this question will say yes. Evidently, we tend to overestimate our abilities behind the wheel. Is the same thing true when it comes to making investment decisions? You will probably not be surprised when we say that human beings sometimes make errors in judgment. How these errors, and other aspects of human behaviour, affect investors and asset prices falls under the general heading of “behavioural finance.” In the first part of this chapter, our goal is to acquaint you with some common types of mistakes investors make and their financial implications. As you will see, researchers have identified a wide variety of potentially damaging behaviours. In the second part of the chapter, we describe a trading strategy known as “technical analysis.” Some investors use technical analysis as a tool to try to exploit patterns in prices. These patterns are thought to exist (by advocates of technical analysis) because of predictable behaviour by investors. Chapter 9 Behavioural Finance and the Psychology of Investing 273 9.1 Introduction to Behavioural Finance Sooner...
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...fourth EDItION Critical Thinking A student ' s Introduction Ba ssha m I I rwi n I N ardon e I Wal l ac e CRITICAL THINKING A STUDENT’S INTRODUCTION FOURTH EDITION Gregory Bassham William Irwin Henry Nardone James M. Wallace King’s College TM TM Published by McGraw-Hill, an imprint of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Copyright © 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. This book is printed on acid-free paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOC/DOC 0 ISBN: 978-0-07-340743-2 MHID: 0-07-340743-7 Vice President, Editorial: Michael Ryan Director, Editorial: Beth Mejia Sponsoring Editor: Mark Georgiev Marketing Manager: Pam Cooper Managing Editor: Nicole Bridge Developmental Editor: Phil Butcher Project Manager: Lindsay Burt Manuscript Editor: Maura P. Brown Design Manager: Margarite Reynolds Cover Designer: Laurie Entringer Production Supervisor: Louis Swaim Composition: 11/12.5 Bembo by MPS Limited, A Macmillan Company Printing: 45# New Era Matte, R. R. Donnelley & Sons Cover Image: © Brand X/JupiterImages Credits: The credits section for this book begins on page C-1 and is considered...
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...updated: April 26, 2016 Logical Reasoning Bradley H. Dowden Philosophy Department California State University Sacramento Sacramento, CA 95819 USA ii iii Preface Copyright © 2011-14 by Bradley H. Dowden This book Logical Reasoning by Bradley H. Dowden is licensed under a Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. That is, you are free to share, copy, distribute, store, and transmit all or any part of the work under the following conditions: (1) Attribution You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author, namely by citing his name, the book title, and the relevant page numbers (but not in any way that suggests that the book Logical Reasoning or its author endorse you or your use of the work). (2) Noncommercial You may not use this work for commercial purposes (for example, by inserting passages into a book that is sold to students). (3) No Derivative Works You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. An earlier version of the book was published by Wadsworth Publishing Company, Belmont, California USA in 1993 with ISBN number 0-534-17688-7. When Wadsworth decided no longer to print the book, they returned their publishing rights to the original author, Bradley Dowden. The current version has been significantly revised. If you would like to suggest changes to the text, the author would appreciate your writing to him at dowden@csus.edu. iv Praise Comments on the earlier 1993 edition...
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...fourth EDItION fourth EDItION This clear, learner-friendly text helps today’s students bridge the gap between Its comprehensiveness allows instructors to tailor the material to their individual teaching styles, resulting in an exceptionally versatile text. Highlights of the Fourth Edition: Additional readings and essays in a new Appendix as well as in Chapters 7 and 8 nearly double the number of readings available for critical analysis and classroom discussion. An online chapter, available on the instructor portion of the book’s Web site, addresses critical reading, a vital skill for success in college and beyond. Visit www.mhhe.com/bassham4e for a wealth of additional student and instructor resources. Bassham I Irwin Nardone I Wallace New and updated exercises and examples throughout the text allow students to practice and apply what they learn. MD DALIM #1062017 12/13/09 CYAN MAG YELO BLK Chapter 12 features an expanded and reorganized discussion of evaluating Internet sources. Critical Thinking thinking, using real-world examples and a proven step-by-step approach. A student ' s Introduction A student's Introduction everyday culture and critical thinking. It covers all the basics of critical Critical Thinking Ba ssha m I Irwin I Nardone I Wall ace CRITICAL THINKING A STUDENT’S INTRODUCTION FOURTH EDITION Gregory Bassham William Irwin Henry Nardone James M. Wallace King’s College TM bas07437_fm_i-xvi.indd i 11/24/09 9:53:56 AM TM Published by McGraw-Hill...
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...The Power of Logic The Power of Logic FOU RTH E DITION Frances Howard-Snyder Daniel Howard-Snyder Ryan Wasserman WESTERN WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY Published by McGraw-Hill, an imprint of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Copyright © 2009, 2005, 2002, 1999, by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGrawHill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. This book is printed on acid-free paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOC/DOC 0 9 8 ISBN: 978-0-07-340737-1 MHID: 0-07-340737-2 Editor in Chief: Michael Ryan Editorial Director: Beth Mejia Sponsoring Editor: Mark Georgiev Marketing Manager: Pamela Cooper Editorial Coordinator: Briana Porco Production Editors: Melissa Williams/Melanie Field, Strawberry Field Publishing Cover Designer: Ashley Bedell Cover Photo: © Dan Trist/Corbis Media Project Manager: Thomas Brierly Production Supervisor: Louis Swaim Composition: This text was set in 10.5/12.5 Goudy by Aptara, Inc. Printing: Printed on 45# New Era Matte by R.R. Donnelley & Sons, Inc. Credits: The credits section for this book is on page 647, following the Answer Key in the back of the book, and is considered an extension of the copyright page. ...
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...Volume 10 Number 6 June 4, 2007 Black Intellectual Genocide: An Essay Review of IQ and the Wealth of Nations Girma Berhanu Göteborg University Sweden Lynn, Richard & Vanhanen, Tatu. (2002). IQ and the Wealth of Nations. Westport, CT: Praeger. Citation: Berhanu, Girma. (2007). Black intellectual genocide: An essay review of IQ and the Wealth of Nations. Education Review, 10(6). Retrieved [date] from http://edrev.asu.edu/essays/v10n6index.html. Abstract I review the book IQ and the Wealth of Nations, written by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen. I critique the authors’ major assertion that a significant part of the gap between rich and poor countries is due to differences in national intelligence. The authors claim that they have evidence that differences in national IQ account for substantial variation in per capita income and growth of a nation. This essay review debunks their assumptions that intellectual and income differences between nations stem from genetic differences. This critique provides an extended review of the research literature that argues against these assumptions and presents a different picture from that presented by Lynn and Vanhanen about the concept of intelligence, what IQ measures and does not measure. The essay exposes the racist, sexist, and antihuman nature of the research tradition in which the authors anchored their studies and the deep methodological flaws and theoretical assumptions that appear in their book. The low standards of scholarship...
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...S O N SOUTH-W ES TE THO M RN MBA series in ’s Eco n o mi cs Managerial Economics A Problem Solving Approach Luke M. Froeb Vanderbilt University Brian T. McCann Purdue University Australia Brazil Canada Mexico Singapore Spain United Kingdom United States Managerial Economics: A Problem-Solving Approach Luke M. Froeb VP/Editorial Director: Jack W. Calhoun Editor-in-Chief: Alex von Rosenberg Sr. Acquisitions Editor: Mike Worls Sr. Content Project Manager: Cliff Kallemeyn Brian T. McCann Art Director: Michelle Kunkler Sr. First Print Buyer: Sandee Milewski Printer: West Group Eagan, MN Marketing Manager: Jennifer Garamy Marketing Coordinator: Courtney Wolstoncroft Technology Project Manager: Dana Cowden COPYRIGHT ª 2008 Thomson South-Western, a part of The Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and SouthWestern are trademarks used herein under license. Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 09 08 07 06 ISBN-13: 978-0-324-35981-7 ISBN-10: 0-324-35981-0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, Web distribution or information storage and retrieval systems, or in any other manner—without the written permission of the publisher. For permission to use material from this text or product, submit a request online at http://www.thomsonrights...
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...Chapter 1: AWA Introduction | To download section click button or click on “File Save as..” in the upper left-corner of your browser | | The Analytical Writing Assessment (AWA) consists of two 30-minute sections, the Analysis of Issue essay and the Analysis of Argument essay. You will receive a grade from 1 to 6, which will be sent with your GRE scores.The good news is that the AWA can be beaten.The essay topics are available for you to review beforehand. The structures for the AWA answers are simple and may be learned. In addition, while much GRE preparation may appear "useless" and without any merit beyond test day, the skills, reasoning tools, and techniques you learn for the AWA may be applied to any essay or persuasive writing. These skills will help you throughout business school and beyond. 800score has graded thousands of essays from GRE candidates and we have an unparalleled knowledge of where students go wrong. Here are some tips before we get started: * Grammar and spelling is, by-and-large, less important than structure and content. Focus on structure and your argument formation. * Take plenty of timed practice tests on a computer. Our sample essays on the site are designed for you to take timed practice essays and be evaluated. * Do not procrastinate AWA preparation. Students tend to put off the AWA until it is too late and then they cannot adequately prepare. | Chapter 2 - Section 1: Analysis of Issue | The Analysis of Issue...
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...Wiki Loves Monuments: Photograph a monument, help Wikipedia and win! Production theory From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search Production theory is the study of production, or the economic process of converting inputs into outputs. Production uses resources to create a good or service that is suitable for use, gift-giving in a gift economy, or exchange in a market economy. This can include manufacturing, storing, shipping, and packaging. Some economists define production broadly as all economic activity other than consumption. They see every commercial activity other than the final purchase as some form of production. Production is a process, and as such it occurs through time and space. Because it is a flow concept, production is measured as a “rate of output per period of time”. There are three aspects to production processes: 1. the quantity of the good or service produced, 2. the form of the good or service created, 3. The temporal and spatial distribution of the good or service produced. A production process can be defined as any activity that increases the similarity between the pattern of demand for goods and services, and the quantity, form, shape, size, length and distribution of these goods and services available to the market place. Contents * 1 Neoclassical Theory of Production * 1.1 Factors of production * 1.2 Total, average, and marginal product * 1.3 Diminishing returns * 1.4 Diminishing marginal returns...
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...A UTH-WE ST MBA series N's CEN G SO ER GE in E conomics Managerial Economics A Problem Solving Approach SECOND EDITION LUKE M. FROEB Vanderbilt University BRIAN T. MC CANN Vanderbilt University Australia • Brazil • Japan • Korea • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach, Second Edition Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann Vice President of Editorial, Business: Jack W. Calhoun Vice President/Editor-in-Chief: Joe Sabatino Acquisitions Editor: Michael Worls Developmental Editor: Jean Buttrom Associate Marketing Manager: Betty Jung Content Project Manager: Lindsay Bethoney Media Editor: Deepak Kumar © 2010, 2008 South-Western, Cengage Learning ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, Web distribution, information storage and retrieval systems, or in any other manner—except as may be permitted by the license terms herein. For product information and technology assistance, contact us at Cengage Learning Customer & Sales Support, 1-800-354-9706 For permission to use material from this text or product, submit all requests online at www.cengage.com/permissions Further permissions questions can be emailed to permissionrequest@cengage.com Print Buyer: Sandee Milewski Production Service:...
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...your research project your research project a step-by-step guide for the first-time researcher NICHOLAS WALLIMAN with Bousmaha Baiche SAGE Publications London • Thousand Oaks • New Delhi To my wife, Ursula © Nicholas Walliman 2001 Chapter 2 © Dr Bousmaha Baiche 2001 First published 2001 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, only with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction, in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. SAGE Publications Ltd 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU SAGE Publications Inc 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd 32, M-Block Market Greater Kailash – I New Delhi 110 048 British Library Cataloguing in Publication data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0 7619 6538 6 ISBN 0 7619 6539 4 (pbk) Library of Congress catalog record available Typeset by Keystroke, Jacaranda Lodge, Wolverhampton. Printed in Great Britain by The Cromwell Press Ltd, Trowbridge, Wiltshire CONTENTS Acknowledgements Introduction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Research and the Research Problem Information...
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