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FINC-UB.0030 Problem Set#1 Cindy Laude 1 USD GBP EUR 2 USD/GBP USD/EUR 1000 USD = Bid 1.64 1.29 1000 USD 1.66 USD/GBP USD 1.00 0.61 0.77

MoWe 9:30-10:45 a.m. GBP 1.65 1.00 0.79 Ask 1.66 1.31 x EUR GBP x 1.29 USD EUR EUR 1.30 1.27 1.00

EUR/GBP = 1.29 The lowest price st which you can buy GBP is 1.29 EUR that do not permit arbitrage. 1000 USD = 1000 USD GBP x 1.31 USD/EUR EUR GBP/EUR = 0.79 EUR/GBP = 1.27 The highest price at which you can sell GBP is 1.27 EUR that do not permit arbitrage. 3 30-day forward [rices 1.64 + 1/100 = 1.65 + 2/100 = Cash Flows (AQR) Time 0 x 1.66 USD GBP

1.65 (bid) 1.67 (ask) Spot market --> 100,000 GBP x 1.65 USD/GBP = 165,000 USD (cash inflow) cash outflow = 100,000 GBP Forward --> 100,000 GBP x 1.67 USD/GBP = 167,000 USD (cash outflow) cash inflow = 100,000 GBP Spot market --> 100,000 GBP x 1.65 USD/GBP = 165,000 USD (cash outflow) cash inflow = 100,000 GBP Forward --> 100,000 GBP x 1.67 USD/GBP = 167,000 USD (cash inflow) cash outflow = 100,000 GBP

After 30 days

Citi

Time 0

After 30 days

4b) Mean -0.03% -0.07% Standard Deviation 2.95% 2.96% Skewness -0.046905551 -0.231396557 Kurtosis 2.254143213 2.215545959 Var 0.00086984 0.000874908 c) The normal distribution has a skewness of zero and kurtosis of 3. Therefore, the changes in the USD/GBP appear to be approximately normally distributed with skewness close to 0 (-0.047 and -0.23) and kurtosis close to 3 (2.25 and 2.21). d) Annualized volatility = (in USD/GBP) (12^0.5) x mean x standard deviation -0.0071%

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