...Systematic Risks (non-diversifiable) Systematic risks are risks that affect the entire market and not each single corporation; it is associated with the overall movement in the general market or economic. Systematic risk are also called as market risk, are non-diversifiable. According to Berk, DeMarzo and Harford (2012,p.337), systematic risks are risks that fluctuate through the market available news. These risks are difficult to be diversified even though the shareholder holds a portfolio since these risks affect the whole market. Systematic risks are included interest rate risk, inflation rate risk, market risk and exchange rate risk, recession, political risk, earthquake. Unsystematic Risks (diversifiable) Unsystematic risks are not affected by the economy but by the specific corporation. The fluctuation of share price of a particular corporation is due to the good or bad news announced by the corporation. It will increase when the corporation that had less earnings growth rate, and low morale or productivity of employees or a poor reputation of the corporation, vice versa. However, unsystematic risk can be diversified by shareholders who hold the portfolio when the stocks are negatively co-related. In fact, it means that when a particular event occurs that affects a specific corporation, the stock of other corporation will be unaffected and thus, the fluctuation of share price between two stocks can be offset. Unsystematic risks are included liquidity risk, operational...
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...Thesis for the Degree of Master of...? INCORPORATING LIQUIDITY RISK INTO VAR MODEL TO IMPROVE RISK MANAGEMENT AND APPLYING THE LIQUIDITY ADJUSTED VALUE AT RISK MODEL ON VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET Student: Ten truong: Ten khoa hoc: September, 2012 INCORPORATING LIQUIDITY RISK INTO VAR MODEL TO IMPROVE RISK MANAGEMENT AND APPLYING THE LIQUIDITY ADJUSTED VALUE AT RISK MODEL ON VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET by student Avised by Ten giao su Submitted to Ten khoa of Ten truong in the partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of ...? Dissertation Committee ...Ten thanh vien hoi dong ABSTRACT In this paper, based on Bangia et. al (1999) Liquidity Adjusted Value at Risk, an explanation and demonstration for the importance of integrate liquidity risk component into Value at Risk Model are presented. The component is considered to be resulted from the exogenous liquidity risk, indeed, the bid-ask spread of a stock or a portfolio. This research is conducted from the analysis of an estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Liquidity adjusted Value at Risk for two portfolios containing stocks that are currently trading on Vietnamese Stock Market. After applying the Bangia Model to calculate, the backtesting will be executed to check the accuracy level of the results. The difference between the results of two portfolios, according to separate approaches will be the evidence to reach the conclusion of the research. Table of Contents List of...
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...Risk Management Analysis for Air NZ Abstract Recent financial theories argued firms can increase their values through hedging by reducing taxable income, agency cost and the cost of financial distress. This report provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of corporate risk management for the company Air New Zealand. We uses a time series OLS regression model. The fair value of derivatives is used as dependent variable to measure the extent of financial instrument usage. The result shows that the use of derivatives by Air NZ fails to add value to the company. FINA781 Report Page 1 1. Introduction Air New Zealand Limited is the national airline and flag carrier of New Zealand. Based in Auckland, New Zealand, the airline operates scheduled passenger flights to 56 destinations locally and internationally. Air New Zealand is a member of the Star Alliance global airline alliance, having joined in 1999. Air New Zealand originated in 1940 as Tasman Empire Airways Limited (TEAL), a flying boat company operating trans-Tasman flights between New Zealand and Australia. TEAL became wholly owned by the New Zealand government in 1965, whereupon it was renamed Air New Zealand. The airline was largely privatized in 1989, but returned to majority government ownership in 2001 after a failed tie up with Australian carrier Ansett Australia. As of 2008, Air New Zealand carries 11.7 million passengers annually. Do hedging create firm value has been a popular topic argued through...
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...MANAGEMENT Risk Management In Banks R.S. Raghavan < E X E C U T I V E ◆Risk is inherent in any walk of life in general and in financial sectors in particular. Till recently, due to regulated environment, banks could not afford to take risks. But of late, banks are exposed to same competition and hence are compeled to encounter various types of financial and non-financial risks. Risks and uncertainties form an integral part of banking which by nature entails taking risks. There are three main categories of risks; Credit Risk, Market Risk & Operational Risk. Author has discussed U M M A R Y > in detail. Main features of these risks as well as some other categories of risks such as Regulatory Risk and Environmental Risk. Various tools and techniques to manage Credit Risk, Market Risk and Operational Risk and its various component, are also discussed in detail. Another has also mentioned relevant points of Basel’s New Capital Accord’ and role of capital adequacy, Risk Aggregation & Capital Allocation and Risk Based Supervision (RBS), in managing risks in banking sector. effectively controlled and rightly managed. Each transaction that the bank undertakes changes the risk profile of the bank. The extent of calculations that need to be performed to understand the impact of each such risk on the transactions of the bank makes it nearly impossible to continuously update the risk calculations. Hence, providing...
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...estimate a firm’s cost of capital? Do you agree with Joanna Cohen’s WACC calculation? Why or why not? Answer: The cost of capital refers to the maximum rate of return a firm must earn on its investment so that the market value of company's equity shares will not drop. This is a consonance with the overall firm's objective of wealth maximization. WACC is a calculation of a firm's cost of capital in which each category of capital is proportionately weighted. All capital sources - common stock, preferred stock, bonds and any other long-term debt - are included in a WACC calculation. All else equal, the WACC of a firm increases as the beta and rate of return on equity increases, as an increase in WACC notes a decrease in valuation and a higher risk. The WACC of a firm is a very important both to the stock market for stock valuation purposes and to the company's management for capital budgeting purposes. In an analysis of a potential investment by the company, investment projects that have an expected return that is greater than the company's WACC will generate additional free cash flow and will create positive net present value for stock owners. Thus, since the WACC is the minimum rate of return required by capital providers, the managers in the company should invest in the projects which generate returns in excess of WACC. We do not agree with Joanna Cohen’s calculation regarding the WACC from 3 aspects: 1) When Joanna Cohen computed the weights or proportions of debt and equity...
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...------------------------------------------------- MAF707 Portfolio investments and Financial Planning ------------------------------------------------- Group Assignment Group 77: Weizhe Shi_900443906 Ran Li_210037023 Yichao FU_900387184 Contents Question 1 3 Analysis of securities and the market index 3 Summary 3 Question 2 7 Question 3 8 Question 4. 9 Standard Consumption of CAPM 9 Expectation errors relied on ex-post data 12 Reference List 14 Question 1 Analysis of securities and the market index Summary Firstly we calculated the monthly return of each securities which depend on the data of adjust close price every month. The formula is the latter month’s adjust close price minus the previous monthly adjust close price then divide the latter month’s adjust close price. On the basis of the results, we moved forward the steps that calculate the mean, median, skewnes, kurtosis, variance and correlation coefficients. Those data have been calculated and presented in excels. Definition and Formula 1. Mean The mean value is the average value of monthly return from Jun 2003 to Dec 2010. The formula is: μ=i=1NXiN where N is the number of the month we count of the return and Xi is the total value of the monthly return. 2. Median The median is the value of the middle item of a set of items that has been sorted into ascending or descending order. In an odd-numbered sample...
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...refers to funds invested in various securities — consisting of Government and semi Govt. securities, loans, debentures, shares and bonds etc. ❖ Elements of Investment :- a) Reward (Return) b) Risk and Return c) Time ❖ Nature of Investment :- Investment requires a continuous flow of decisions which can not be avoided. The investment decisions are based on many streams of data which taken together, represent to an investor the observable environment and the general and particular of the securities & enterprises in which he may invest. ❖ Investment Environment :- a) Stable Government b) Stable Currency c) Presence of Public financial Institutions d) Development of corporate sector. [pic] ❖ Different types of Port-folios for Investment :- Investment — Concept of Port-folio :- Portfolio is the collection of financial or real assets such as equity shares or debentures, bonds, treasury bills & property etc. Steps in selecting a portfolio a) framing of investment policies. b) Valuation of Financial Instruments c) Investment Analysis d) Construction of Portfolio Port-folio management is the investment of funds in different securities in which total risk of the port-folio is minimized while expecting maximum return form it. ❖ Port-folio construction :- i) Determination of Diversification level. ii) Consideration of Investment timings. ...
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...CHAPTER 2 RISK AND RETURN: PART I (Difficulty: E = Easy, M = Medium, and T = Tough) True-False Easy: (2.2) Payoff matrix Answer: a Diff: E [i]. If we develop a weighted average of the possible return outcomes, multiplying each outcome or "state" by its respective probability of occurrence for a particular stock, we can construct a payoff matrix of expected returns. a. True b. False (2.2) Standard deviation Answer: a Diff: E [ii]. The tighter the probability distribution of expected future returns, the smaller the risk of a given investment as measured by the standard deviation. a. True b. False (2.2) Coefficient of variation Answer: a Diff: E [iii]. The coefficient of variation, calculated as the standard deviation divided by the expected return, is a standardized measure of the risk per unit of expected return. a. True b. False (2.2) Risk comparisons Answer: a Diff: E [iv]. The coefficient of variation is a better measure of risk than the standard deviation if the expected returns of the securities being compared differ significantly. a. True b. False (2.3) Risk and expected return Answer: a Diff: E [v]. Companies should deliberately increase their risk relative to the market only if the actions that increase the risk also increase the expected rate of return on the firm's assets by enough to completely compensate for the higher risk. a. True b. False (2.2) Risk aversion...
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...Returning to the earlier example, there are 3 key points: Why should theoretical price be the market price? This is an important question. If not then there is risk-free money to be made. If C < 50p buy it and hedge to make pro…t. If C > 50p sell it and hedge, make a guaranteed pro…t. Supply and demand should make this price converge to 50p. How do I know to sell 1/2 the stock for hedging (and not another value)? means the amount of stock sold for hedging purposes. The right choice for hedging means that the value of the portfolio does not depend on the direction of the stock. Earlier we had 1 101 = 99 1 0 = = 101 99 1 2 Note it is purely a coincident in this example that delta has the same value as the option. Note = V+ S+ V S = Range of option payo¤s Range of stock prices This model is discrete time, discrete stock. When we go to continuous time continuous stock delta will become @V : @S How does this change if interest rates are non-zero? Everything is as before but we now have a discount factor. Consider the earlier example but with r = 10% over one day, i.e. 1 1 = 1 + rt 1 + 0:1=252 0:9996 Now discount tomorrow’ value to get to todays s V 0:5 100 = 0:5 99 V = 0:51963 0:9996 So the portfolio value today must be the Present Value of the portfolio value tomorrow. Consider a portfolio asset price Si : ; long an option and short assets. Vi denotes the option value corresponding to S+ V+ ...
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...Risk and Return Concepts Prepared by: JQY Risk and Return Concepts • Measures of risk and returns • Portfolio risk and returns • CAPM Return – what is earned on an investment: the sum of income and capital gains generated by an investment. Risk – possibility of loss; the uncertainty that the anticipated return will not be achieved. Risk and Return? If you have PHP 1,000,000, will you invest in: 5% 20% Risk and Return General Rule of Thumb: More Risk = More Returns Less Risk = Less Returns It depends on the investor: Risk Seeking – prefers high risk investments Risk Neutral – willing to take on moderate risk Risk Averse – conservative, unwilling to take on high risk investments unless the returns justify and compensates for the high risk taken. Relative Risk & Returns of Asset Classes Source: http://www.weblivepro.com/articles/cpp/cppinfo.aspx Measures of Returns • Historical Returns ▫ Holding Period Return ▫ Alternative Measures Arithmetic Mean Geometric Mean Harmonic Mean • Expected Returns Measuring Historical Returns • Holding Period Return ▫ Total return on an asset or portfolio over the period during which it was held ▫ HPR = MV1 – MV0 + D MV0 MV1 = market value, end MV0 = market value, beginning D = cumulative cash distributions (at the end of period) • Annualized HPR ▫ (1 + HPR) ^ 1/n – 1 Measuring Historical Returns • Example: Mr. A bought an asset in 2005 for P100. He kept it...
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...Risk and Rates of Return Risk – The chance that some unfavorable event will occur; investment risk can be measured by the variability of the investment’s return. Stand-Alone Risk • Probability Distributions Subjective (estimated) Objective (historical) Continuous Discrete • Expected Rate of Return … weighted average of all possible outcomes … the rate of return expected to be realized from an investment … the mean value of the probability distribution of possible results • Variance ((2) • Standard Deviation (() … measures total risk • Coefficient of Variation (CV = (/k) … measures risk per unit of return … can be used to rank stocks based upon their risk/return characteristics … the CV is most useful when analyzing investments that have different expected rates of return and different levels of risk • Risk Aversion … the greater a security’s risk, the greater the return investors will demand and thus the less they are willing to pay for the investment • Risk Premium …the portion of a security’s expected return that is attributed to the additional risk of an investment over and above the “risk-free” rate of return Portfolio Risk • Portfolio – a collection or grouping of investment securities or assets • Efficient Portfolio 1) Maximize return for a given level of risk 2) Minimize risk for a given level...
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...and Systematic Risk Neil Garrod University of Glasgow Dusan Mramor University of Ljubljana Address for correspondence: Neil Garrod, Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Glasgow, 65-71, Southpark Avenue, Glasgow G12 8LE, Scotland, U.K. Tel: 00-44-141-330-5426 e-mail: n.garrod@accfin.gla.ac.uk On Accounting Flows and Systematic Risk Abstract The body of work that relates accounting numbers to market measures of systematic equity risk was largely undertaken in the 1970s and early 1980s. More recent proposals on changes in accounting disclosure of risk mean that a rigorous theoretical model of the relationship between accounting measures and market measures of risk is timely. In this paper such a model is developed. In addition, the assumptions required to develop the model are explicitly identified. By so doing it becomes possible to identify the potential cross-sectional differences which drive the empirical relationship between accounting and market based measures of risk. The model developed highlights a clear relationship between accounting and market measures of risk which can be exploited in situations where accounting data alone is available. It also provides a framework within which the environmental factors leading to cross-sectional differences between companies can be further explored. On Accounting Flows and Systematic Risk I. Introduction ...
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...Introduction Financial risk takes place when an individual or company is exposed through numerous financial transactions. These transactions may include sales, purchasing, different types of investments, loans, volatile markets due to political situations and more. Financial prices may change as a result of changes in interest rates, inflation, the exchange rate, and many more economic reasons such influences of the European markets as well as the United States. These occurrences can result in increased cost and reduced revenues. It is clear that these aspects make it difficult to plan the operations of an organization. Another aspect that greatly influences the financial risk of organisations is Porter’s Five Forces analysis. Figure 1 below shows how these forces interact. Figure 1 – Porter’s Five Forces analysis model If these forces are intense such as in the airline industry, the risk is much greater. If these forces are benign, such as in the soft drink industry, the risk might not be very great. Systematic risk Systematic risk is also known as market risk or un-diversifiable risk. It is the uncertainty inherent to the entire market or segment. This type of risk consists of fluctuations in a stock’s price. Volatility is a measure of risk because it refers to the behaviour or temperament of an investment rather than the reason for this behaviour. Sources of systematic risk normally affect the entire market and cannot be avoided through diversification. Examples...
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...Bond Prices, Default Probabilities and Risk Premiums1 John Hull, Mirela Predescu, and Alan White A feature of credit markets is the large difference between probabilities of default calculated from historical data and probabilities of default implied from bond prices (or from credit default swaps). Consider, for example, a seven-year A-rated bond. As we will see the average probability of default backed out from the bond’s price is almost ten times as great as that calculated from historical data. Why are the two estimates of the probability of default so different? The answer is that bond traders do not base their prices for bonds only on the actuarial probability of default. They build in an extra return to compensate for the risks they are bearing. The default probabilities calculated from historical data are referred to as real-world (or physical) default probabilities; those backed out from bond prices are known as risk-neutral default probabilities. Real-world default probabilities are usually less than risk-neutral default probabilities. This means that bond traders earn more than the risk-free rate on average from holding corporate bonds. Risk-neutral default probabilities are used when credit dependent instruments are valued. Real-world default probabilities are used in scenario analysis and in the calculation of bank capital under Basel II. Altman (1989) was one of the first researchers to comment on the discrepancy between bond prices and historical default data. He...
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...Structure Theories There are 4 basic Capital Structure theories. They are: 1. Net Income Approach 2. Net Operating Income Approach 3. Modigliani-Miller (MM) Approach and 4. Traditional Approach Generally, the capital structure theories have the following assumptions: 1. There are no corporate taxes (this assumption has been removed later). 2. The firms use only 2 sources of financing namely perpetual debts ad equity shares 3. The firms pay 100% of the earnings as dividend. This means that the dividend pay-out ratio is 100% and there are no earnings that are retained by the firms. 4. The total assets are given which do not change and the investment decisions are assumed to be constant. 5. Business risk is constant over time and it is assumed that it is independent of the capital structure. 6. The firm has a perpetual life. 7. The firm’s earnings before interest and taxes are not expected to grow. 8. The firm’s total financing remains constant. The firm’s degree of leverage can be altered either by selling shares and to retire the debt using the proceeds or by...
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