...16 No. 3 September 2002 pp. 233–243 COMMENTARY The “Incomplete Revelation Hypothesis” and Financial Reporting Robert J. Bloomfield Robert J. Bloomfield is an Associate Professor at Cornell University. INTRODUCTION The most common form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) states that market prices fully reflect all publicly available information (Fama 1970). The EMH has been highly influential among academics, but practitioners and regulators appear unconvinced. Investors work hard to identify mispriced stocks on the basis of public data, or pay others to do so, even though the EMH asserts that such efforts are wasted. Managers seek to boost stock prices by hiding bad news in footnotes, and regulators work hard to defeat such efforts, even though the EMH asserts that information is reflected in prices no matter how obscure its presentation. Beliefs about inefficiency play a central role in the debate over recognizing expenses for incentive stock options. Opponents of expensing argue that the resulting lower net income will inappropriately reduce market prices, while proponents argue the market does not fully recognize compensation costs reported only in footnotes. In efficient markets, however, expensing these costs has no direct effect on prices, as long as the details of the compensation are included in footnotes. The decision to expense option costs could reduce stock price indirectly, even in efficient markets, by affecting the terms of contracts between the reporting...
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...covariability of a firm’s returns with all shares traded on the market (in excess of the risk-free interest rate). We refer to the degree of covariability as systematic risk. The market prices securities so that the expected returns should compensate the investor for the systematic risk of a particular stock. Stocks carrying a market equity beta of 1.20 should generate a higher return than stocks carrying a market equity beta of 0.90. Firm-specific risk is any source of risk that does not affect the covariability of a firm’s returns with the market. People examined the analysis of financial risk associated with the use of leverage along the four dimensions, which would be listed later. In these four dimensions, the first two dimensions of risk are firm-specific risk and the third dimension of risk as systematic risk. The four dimensions are: first with respect to time frame: We examined the analysis of a firm’s ability to pay liabilities coming due the next year (short-term liquidity risk analysis) and its ability to pay liabilities coming due over a longer term (long-term solvency risk analysis). The financial ratios examined a firm’s need for cash and other liquid resources relative to amounts coming due within various time frames. Secondly, with respect to the degree of financial distress: We emphasized the need to consider risk as falling along a continuum from low risk to high risk of financial distress. Firms with a great deal of financial flexibility fall on the low...
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... Fundamental Analysis Strategy and the Prediction of Stock Returns Jaouida Elleuch* Faculty of Economics and management sciences (FSEG), University of Sfax, Tunisia E-mail: Elleuchj@yahoo.fr Abstract This paper examines whether a simple fundamental analysis strategy based on historical accounting information can predict stock returns. The paper’s goal is to show that simple screens based on historical financial signals can shift the distribution of returns earned by an investor by separating eventual winners stocks from losers. Results show that historical accounting signals can be used to improve the entire distribution of future returns earned by an investor. In fact, despite the overall down activity of the market over the sample period chosen, results reveal that fundamental accounting signals can be used to discriminate from an overall sample generating future negative returns of -0,116 a winner portfolio that provide positive future return of 0,019 from a loser one generating a negative return of -0,229. The over-performance of the winner portfolio seems to be attributable to the ability of the fundamental signals to predict future earnings. In fact, results show that fundamental signals have a positive and significant correlation with future earnings performance and that the winner portfolio have a future earning’s realisation (0,100) that outperforms that of the loser portfolio (-0,012). Keywords: Fundamental Analysis, Market Efficiency, Stock returns. JEL Classification...
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...Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Abstract This paper is a survey on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more accurately than current techniques. Common market analysis techniques such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and regression are discussed and compared with neural network performance. Also, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is presented and contrasted with chaos theory and neural networks. This paper refutes the EMH based on previous neural network work. Finally, future directions for applying neural networks to the financial markets are discussed. 1 Introduction From the beginning of time it has been man’s common goal to make his life easier. The prevailing notion in society is that wealth brings comfort and luxury, so it is not surprising that there has been so much work done on ways to predict the markets. Various technical, fundamental, and statistical indicators have been proposed and used with varying results. However, no one technique or combination of techniques has been successful enough to consistently "beat the market". With the development of neural networks, researchers and investors are hoping that the market mysteries can be unraveled. This paper is a survey of current market forecasting techniques with an emphasis on why they are insufficient...
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...the performance of the DOW for the next two years. Provide support for your prediction. • Given your predictions, recommend whether or not a risk-adverse person should invest in the DOW index fund. Explain your rationale. Week 1 DQ 2 "Investment Decisions" Please respond to the following: • Analyze the factors that influence investment decisions at different stages in an investor’s life cycle, and make a recommendation at which stage the average investor should consider financial investments. Provide support for your recommendation. • Assess how cultural differences in foreign countries impact investor asset allocations. Week 2 DQ 1 "Globalization" Please respond to the following: • From the e-Activity, analyze how national exchanges around the world are linked and suggest which exchange most significantly impacts the U.S. markets. Explain your rationale. • Assess the factor(s) contributing to the global consolidation of stock, bonds, and derivative exchange. Predict the impact to these exchanges in the future. Week 2 DQ 2 "Efficient Markets" Please respond to the following: • Analyze the most significant driver in an efficient market and whether or not you would characterize the U.S. markets as efficient. Provide support for your position. • Discuss how behavioral finance concepts, such as bias, may impact investor decisions and the efficiency of financial markets. Week 3...
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...Analysis of Financial Statement Formal Assignment Report Table of Contents Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 1. Brief Review ................................................................................................................. 3 2. Analysis of Financial Performance ................................................................................... 4 Liquidity Ratio ............................................................................................................... 5 Current Ratio ............................................................................................................. 5 Quick Ratio................................................................................................................ 6 Profitability Ratios ......................................................................................................... 7 Earnings per Share (EPS) ............................................................................................ 7 Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin .................................................................... 7 Efficiency Ratios ............................................................................................................ 9 Sales to Inventory ....................................................................................................... 9 3. A) Estimation of Value...
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...Introduction- What is a financial statement analysis: Financial statement analysis is defined as the process of identifying financial strengths and weaknesses of the firm by properly establishing relationship between the items of the balance sheet and the profit and loss account. There are various methods or techniques that are used in analyzing financial statements, such as comparative statements, schedule of changes in working capital, common size percentages, funds analysis, trend analysis, and ratios analysis. Financial statements are prepared to meet external reporting obligations and also for decision making purposes. They play a dominant role in setting the framework of managerial decisions. But the information provided in the financial statements is not an end in itself as no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from these statements alone. However, the information provided in the financial statements is of immense use in making decisions through analysis and interpretation of financial statements. Objectives- What manager need to analysis Financial statement: 1. Prepare and interpret financial statements in comparative and common-size form. 2. Compute and interpret financial ratios that would be most useful to a common stock holder. 3. Compute and interpret financial ratios that would be most useful to a short-term creditor 4. Compute and interpret financial ratios that would be most useful to long -term creditors. 1.Assessment Of Past Performance Past...
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...Required Return for Equity Investors We used the CAPM equation to come up with Caterpillar’s cost of capital. Using weekly returns on one-year treasury bills, the S&P 500, and Caterpillar’s stock since the beginning of 2010, we used regression analysis to determine the beta of the company. The beta we calculated for Caterpillar is 1.56. Next, we estimated the risk free rate using knowledge of what we believe will happen in the near future. Currently, the yield on 10-year treasury bills is 1.98%. This is low because the country is recovering from the latest recession. We believe that because of the expected economic recovery, this will change in the next few years and that a more realistic risk free rate looking forward is 3%. Next, we determined an appropriate expected market return. After looking at the response of historic S&P 500 returns following similar dips in the economy, we decided to use 7.5% as our expected market return in our valuation. The cost of capital for Caterpillar we calculated with the CAPM equation is 10.02%. Financial Statement Projections In order to valuate the stock of Caterpillar, it was necessary for our group to use the analyst articles, the company’s annual report, and other outside sources to project Caterpillar’s financial statements over the next few years. First, we projected the revenues and cost of goods sold. One analyst report suggested that the construction market would experience an increase in business in the next few...
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...Off-balance-sheet activities, earnings persistence and stock prices: Evidence from operating leases* Weili Ge University of Washington Business School University of Washington Mackenzie Hall, Box 353200 Seattle, WA 98195 (206) 221-4835 geweili@u.washington.edu November 22, 2006 Abstract This paper examines the implications of the off-balance-sheet treatment of operating leases for future earnings and stock returns. The property rights granted by an operating lease contract generate both future benefits (off-balance-sheet capital investment) and future obligations (offbalance-sheet financing liabilities) for the lessee. The change in the off-balance-sheet capital investment can be viewed as a form of growth in net operating assets and also a form of offbalance-sheet accruals. By examining the footnote disclosure on operating leases, this paper shows that, after controlling for current earnings, greater off-balance-sheet operating lease activities lead to lower future earnings. This finding is consistent with diminishing marginal returns to investment in operating lease activities. Additional tests show that investors seem to incorrectly estimate the implications of off-balance-sheet lease activities for future earnings. A long-short investment strategy that exploits this misestimation generates significant future abnormal stock returns. These results suggest that the accrual anomaly documented in prior research extends to off-balance-sheet lease accruals. * This paper...
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...Finance & Banking, vol.1, no.3, 2011, 125-138 ISSN: 1792-6580 (print version), 1792-6599 (online) International Scientific Press, 2011 Stock Market Analysis in Practice: Is It Technical or Fundamental? Gil Cohen1, Andrey Kudryavtsev2 and Shlomit Hon-Snir3 Abstract Investors use varies tools in the investment process. Some use technical or fundamental analysis, or both in that process. The aim of the following survey research is first, to examine differences between professional portfolio managers to amateur investors in their approach towards technical and fundamental analysis. Second, we want to study the difference of use of fundamental and technical tools in the buying versus selling stocks. We used online survey in one of the leading business portals in addition to asking professional investors in a leading investment house in Israel. Our results show no significant difference between professional and non-professional investors in terms of how frequently they use fundamental and technical investment tools. Both groups of investors use more frequently fundamental tools than technical when they make buy/sell decisions. We also found that non-professional investors use more fundamental tools such as "analysts' recommendations" when they buy stocks and more technical tools such as "support and resistance lines" when they sell stocks. Moreover, our study Economics and Management Department, The Max Stern Academic...
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...Financial Terminology Financial management is such a fascinating subject. A lot of people would ask, “Why?” Financial management can be easily explained as the management of money. Financial management is crucial for both individuals and organizations because it deals with managing funds. It guides a company and individual in making optimum use of money to achieve maximum returns. While working on this specific assignment I decided to concentrate on financial ratio analysis, since I am the business owner, and most of the financial terms like balance sheet, shareholder’s equity, EBITDA, EBITDAM, financial ethics, financial benchmarking I am very familiar with. I must admit that understanding financial ratio analysis I found somehow difficult, this is why I decided to concentrate on this topic. Summary of Articles The first article that I read is called “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Predictions of Corporate Bankruptcy” by Edward I. Altman, published 1968 in the Journal of Finance. The article says that academicians are seeking to eliminate ratio analysis as an analytical technique in assessing the performance of a business. According to the article theorists are attacking the relevance of ratio analysis. The article explores the possibility of whether the gap between traditional ratio analysis and more rigorous statistical techniques can be bridged. According to the article the traditional ratio analysis is no longer an important analytical...
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...FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING INFORMATION AND THE RELEVANCE/IRRELEVANCE ISSUE (Global Business & Economics Review Volume 5 No.2 December 2003 pp:140-175) Stanley C. W. Salvary, Canisius College ABSTRACT Some current research conclude that the numbers in financial statements are not relevant for three basic reasons. The numbers: (1) are not isomorphic with capital market values, (2) do not have a future orientation, and (3) are un-interpretable since they are based upon five different measurement attributes. The lack of isomorphism argument is invalid since actual current performance is not identical with the capital market expectations of future performance. The lack of a future orientation argument is invalid since financial statements capture what has happened and not what is expected to happen. Since a single measurement attribute is required to produce meaningful measures, the un-interpretability argument holds. A unique measurement attribute is identified in this paper to address this problem I. INTRODUCTION In Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1: Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises (SFAC1) [1978], the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) maintains that the function of financial accounting is to generate information useful to a group of users (investors and creditors) for decision-making. The focus on that specific function (decision-making) leads to a concern for predictive value, as opposed to feedback value, in financial statements...
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...Are IFRS-based and US GAAP-based Accounting Amounts Comparable? Mary E. Barth* Stanford University Wayne R. Landsman, Mark Lang University of North Carolina Christopher Williams University of Michigan August 2011 * Corresponding author: Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 94305-5015, mbarth@stanford.edu. We appreciate funding from the Center for Finance and Accounting Research, Kenan-Flagler Business School and the Center for Global Business and the Economy, Stanford Graduate School of Business. We appreciate comments from Elicia Cowins, Julie Erhardt, Margot Howard, Elmar Venter, an anonymous reviewer, and workshop participants at the University of Cologne, ESSEC Business School, George Washington University, Giessen Business School, University of Graz, IESE Business School, University of Leeds, University of Missouri, Oklahoma State University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Singapore Management University, Southern Methodist University, Stanford University, Washington University at St. Louis, and the European Accounting Association Congress. We also thank Dan Amiram and Mark Maffett for assistance with data collection. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1585404 Are IFRS-based and US GAAP-based Accounting Amounts Comparable? Abstract This study documents whether application of IFRS by non-US firms results in accounting amounts comparable to those resulting from application of US GAAP by US firms. IFRS firms have...
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...largely on the efficient performance of its financial markets, since they facilitate the financing of productive activity and hence national output and economic growth. In this research report, the key roles and function of the financial markets are highlighted with the thrust of the discussion on the core issue of how the market works; directly and indirectly. One of the most important factors for rapid economic development is the effective mobilization and allocation of scarce resources within an economy. These resources can be real or financial, but they are scarce and command a price. The establishment of effective and efficient channel for the mobilization and allocation of scarce financial resources is therefore essential. The financial market, comprising of the money and capital markets, occupies an important place in most economies of the world. The primary function of a financial market is to enable funds to be sufficiently allocated from the surplus units of the economy to the deficit units for productive investment. The greater the transmission efficiency is, the higher the rate of growth of the economy (Olowe, 1997). The money market trades only in securities or debt instruments maturing in less than twelve months, while in the capital market, longer term debts as well as equity instruments are traded. The complementarity between money market and capital market is necessary for a balanced development of the financial system. (NSE Fact Book 2010) The money market...
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...Sharma COMPARING AND ANALYZING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT DECISION Case Study of Automotive Industry Business Economics and Tourism 2012 1 VAASAN AMMATTIKORKEAKOULU UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES Bachelor of Business Administration ABSTRACT Author Title Raju Sharma Comparing and Analyzing Financial Statements to Make an Investment Decision: Case Study of Automotive Industry. Year 2012 Language English Pages 72 + 5 Appendices Name of Supervisor Jukka Paldanius The purpose of the thesis was to evaluate and compare the financial statements of different companies to rate their performances. The emphasis was to be able to choose among several companies the best one to invest in. The aim of the study was met by comparing the risk of different companies, their rate of return, future trends and their strengths and weaknesses. In the theoretical section of the thesis different factors affecting the capital market were discussed, with the focus being on the risks of an investment. Basic financial statements and ratios were discussed briefly. Next cross sectional and time series techniques to compare the financial statements and ratios were revealed. Most of the information from the theories was later on used in the empirical part of the thesis. In the empirical study, initially the financial statements of different companies were taken to compute the ratios, risk, average return, to make trends and common size statements. Then a quantitative interpretation...
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