...Transactions and Strategies Economics for Management This page intentionally left blank Transactions and Strategies Economics for Management ROBERT J. MICHAELS Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton Australia • Brazil • Japan • Korea • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States Transactions and Strategies: Economics for Management Robert J. Michaels Vice President of Editorial, Business: Jack W. Calhoun Publisher: Joe Sabatino Sr. Acquisitions Editor: Steve Scoble Supervising Developmental Editor: Jennifer Thomas Editorial Assistant: Lena Mortis Sr. Marketing Manager: John Carey Marketing Coordinator: Suellen Ruttkay Marketing Specialist: Betty Jung Content Project Manager: Cliff Kallemeyn Media Editor: Deepak Kumar Sr. Art Director: Michelle Kunkler Frontlist Buyer, Manufacturing: Sandee Milewski Internal Designer: Juli Cook/ Plan-It-Publishing, Inc. Cover Designer: Rose Alcorn Cover Image: © Justin Guariglia/Corbis © 2011 South-Western, Cengage Learning ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means— graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, Web distribution, information storage and retrieval systems, or in any other manner—except as may be permitted by the license terms herein. For product information and technology assistance, contact us at Cengage Learning Customer & Sales Support...
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...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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