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Food Processing Industry

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Morning Briefing
Monday, March 24, 2014

FOOD PRODUCERS: Earnings decline but outperforming
In our today's morning briefing we would discuss the performance of Food producer sector in 2013-14.

Trading at highly expensive multiples
The sector is currently trading at highly expensive PE multiples of 57.3 as against a PE multiples of 8 of KSE-100 Index due to buyback rumors in few companies after Unilver Buyback and Nestle India. Furthermore, lower multiple remain also reason to corner float by major institution. We believe this is unjustified and can witness heavy sell-off once market goes through a bearish trend. Therefore investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance and switch to other sector.

Market Review KSE 100 Index KSE 30 Index KMI 30 Index All Share Index Market Cap. (Rs bn) Volume Leaders TRG BAFL LPCL JSCL AICL

Last Change 26,765.49 -383.03 18,990.38 -348.77 44,606.35 -604.01 20,026.10 -249.31 6,460.62 -83.52 Close 15.17 25.86 11.24 10.99 44.33 Volume 14,782,000 11,662,000 9,405,000 7,747,000 5,402,400

Outperforming KSE-100 index so far in CY14
The sector has posted a return of 15% so far in CY14 outperforming the benchmark KSE-100 index by 9% which Sector Cap Relative to KSE 100 Index Inde x posted a return of 6%. This was main- 28,000 ly on back of tremendous performance 25,000 by NESTLE which posted a return of 22,000 27.5% in CY14TD outperforming 19,000 KSE-100 index by 21.5% primarily 16,000 owing to buyback news of NESTLE India. Second on the list was National KSE 100 Index Food Producers Foods whose return stayed in line with Source: WE Research the benchmark index.
Sector cap in bn

800 700 600 500 400 300

Apr-13

Aug-13

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-14

Feb-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Cumulative profit slips in 2013
KSE Statistics
Indices All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index Turnover All Share Index KSE-30TM Index KSE-100TM Index March 21, 2014 20,026.10 18,990.38 26,765.49

159,929,530 66,417,000 125,970,260

The cumulative earnings of the food producers sector declined by 11.2% to Rs 10,457 million in 2013 as compared to a profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 11,770 million in 2012 primarily due to heavy decline in earnings of EFOODS. For our analysis, we have taken companies of the sector that are in KSE-100 index which includes; Nestle, Engro Foods, Rafhan Maize, National Foods, and JDW Sugar. The net sales of the sector totaled Rs 183,519 million in 2013 which is 8.8% more from net sales of Rs 168,706 million in 2012. The gross margin of the sector reduced to 23% in 2013 as against 24% in 2012. The payout ratio of the sector climbed to 74% in 2013 versus 43% in 2012. The rise in payout ratio was on back of almost 97% payout by NESTLE.

Board Meetings
Company Askari general insurance Co Ltd Punjab Oil Mills Limited Security Investment Bank Ltd Singer Pakistan Limited P.I.B. Terminal Fatima Fertilizer Company Wyeth Pakistan Limited Sindh Abadgar's Sugar Mills Ltd First Al-Noor Modaraba Linde Pakistan Limited Unilever Pakistan Foods Ltd Date 24-03-2014 24-03-2014 25-03-2014 26-03-2014 26-03-2014 27-03-2014 27-03-2014 27-03-2014 05-04-2014 16-04-2014 24-04-2014 Time 11:00 11:30 4:00 11:45 3:30 12:30 2:30 4:00 11:30 11:00 2:30

Rafhan stays best performer, EFOODS the worst one
Rafhan stood as the best performer among the companies in our analysis as the company earned a PAT of Rs 2,781 million (EPS: Rs 301.1) in 2013 growing by 36.3% from a PAT of Rs 2,040 million (EPS: Rs 220.9) in 2012. On the negative side, EFOODS stood as the worst performer in the sector and was the main culprit due to which the earnings of the sector declined. EFOODS earned a PAT of Rs211 million (EPS: Rs 0.3) in 2013 which is around 92% less versus a PAT of Rs 2,595 million (EPS: Rs 3.4) in 2012. The massive decline in the earnings of EFOODS was mainly due to lower sales by the company as it faced issues in its distribution process. The detailed performance of the companies in our analysis can be seen in the tables on the next page.

Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice. For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz

We Research is Available on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S & P Capital IQ, FactSet

Dec-13

Feb-14

Morning Briefing
Monday, March 24, 2014

Food Producers Financial Snapshot
Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation PAT Growth (%) PER (x) P/BVS (x) P/Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) Payout (%) Gross Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Nestle Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) PE (x) P/BVPS (x) P/ Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) Efoods Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) PE (x) P/BVPS (x) P/ Sales (x) Rafhan Maize Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) PE (x) P/BVPS (x) P/ Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) National Foods Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) PE (x) P/BVPS (x) P/ Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) JDW Sugar Net Sales Gross Profit Profit after Taxation EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) PE (x) P/BVPS (x) P/ Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) Source: WE Research 2009 80,906 20,351 4,596 49% 27.8 8.8 1.6 2.9% 82% 25% 5.7% 2009 41,156 11,899 3,005 66.3 60 18.8 12.8 1.4 4.8% 2009 14,665 2,502 (433) (0.6) NM 22.2 2.9 2009 11,428 2,435 1,297 140.4 90 10.6 3.4 1.2 6.1% 2009 3,759 1,126 139 3.4 19.9 4.2 0.7 2009 9,898 2,388 588 9.8 4 5.3 1.6 0.3 7.7% 2010 111,215 26,532 7,459 62.3% 27.2 10.2 1.8 2.4% 66% 24% 6.7% 2010 51,487 13,879 4,113 90.7 75 26.2 19.3 2.1 3.2% 2010 20,945 4,393 176 0.2 425.9 14.6 2.0 2010 13,913 3,298 1,838 199.0 115 10.6 3.9 1.4 5.5% 2010 4,490 1,327 87 2.1 1.2 33.2 3.9 0.6 1.7% 2010 20,380 3,636 1,246 20.8 7 4.3 1.6 0.3 7.9% 2011 143,205 32,863 9,196 23.3% 29.0 10.1 1.9 1.8% 52% 23% 6.4% 2011 64,824 16,725 4,668 102.9 65 34.9 21.4 2.5 1.8% 2011 29,859 6,629 891 1.2 84.0 10.3 1.4 2011 18,271 3,800 2,034 220.2 125 11.4 3.9 1.3 5.0% 2011 5,521 1,574 231 5.6 2.5 11.4 2.9 0.5 3.9% 2011 24,729 4,135 1,372 23.0 9 3.2 0.9 0.2 12.3% 2012 168,706 40,512 11,770 28.0% 29.4 9.9 2.0 1.4% 43% 24% 7.0% 2012 79,088 21,523 5,865 129.3 70 36.6 18.6 2.7 1.5% 2012 40,169 10,321 2,595 3.4 28.9 7.5 1.1 2012 19,531 3,975 2,040 220.9 125 18.1 5.4 1.9 3.1% 2012 7,169 2,331 583 14.1 6 20.5 8.5 1.7 2.1% 2012 22,750 2,362 688 11.5 6 10.2 1.4 0.3 5.1% 2013 183,519 42,706 10,457 -11.2% 57.3 13.7 3.3 1.3% 74% 23% 5.7% 2013 86,227 24,161 5,867 129.4 125 69.5 25.0 4.7 1.4% 2013 37,891 8,173 211 0.3 NM 8.1 1.3 2013 23,673 4,213 2,781 301.1 135 26.6 7.7 3.1 1.7% 2013 8,546 2,957 673 16.2 7.5 30.0 12.0 2.4 1.5% 2013 27,183 3,202 925 15.5 6 12.4 2.1 0.4 3.1%

We Research is Available on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S & P Capital IQ, FactSet

Morning Briefing
Monday, March 24, 2014

Key Data
Money Market T-Bills (3 Mths) 19-Mar-2014 9.96% T-Bills (6 Mths) 19-Mar-2014 9.98% T-Bills (12 Mths) 19-Mar-2014 9.99% Discount Rate 16-Mar-2014 10.00% Kibor (1 Mth) 21-Mar-2014 10.24% Kibor (3 Mths) 21-Mar-2014 10.04% Kibor (6 Mths) 21-Mar-2014 10.08% Kibor (9 Mths) 21-Mar-2014 10.36% Kibor (1 Yr) 21-Mar-2014 10.39% P.I.B (3 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 11.70% P.I.B (5 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 12.15% P.I.B (10 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 12.70% P.I.B (15 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 12.85% P.I.B (20 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 12.90% P.I.B (30 Yrs) 21-Mar-2014 13.00% Commodities *Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl 107.23 *Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl 99.40 *Cotton $/lb 92.92 *Gold $/ozs 1,334.65 *Silver $/ozs 20.41 Malaysian Palm $ 842 *GOLD (PMEX) PKR 43,170 KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR 7,127 Portfolio Investment (U.S $ in million)
Yearly(Jul, 2017 up to 20-Mar-2014) Monthly(Mar, 2017 up to 20-Mar-2014) Daily (20-Mar-2014) Total Portfolio Investment (28-Feb-2014) NCCPL (U.S $ in million) FIPI (21-Mar-2014) Local Companies (21-Mar-2014) Banks / DFI (21-Mar-2014) Mutual Funds (21-Mar-2014) NBFC (21-Mar-2014) Local Investors (21-Mar-2014) Other Organization (21-Mar-2014) 108.37 -4.55 -0.73 4816

Pivot Analysis
Company CR RSI 52.19 59.53 55.67 68.64 35.83 55.53 48.55 31.35 63.01 40.93 56.67 62.43 30.86 39.28 38.08 29.36 70.71 43.28 23.58 50.02 35.21 37.06 26.74 83.21 55.72 81.43 Buy 1 26,562 137.70 43.75 17.00 7.10 528.75 213.00 25.25 9.80 10.45 13.00 17.15 41.05 108.50 159.20 52.00 328.10 315.75 240.70 29.10 50.60 2.15 247.00 425.55 30.25 23.30 Buy 2 26,359 136.25 43.20 16.80 6.95 524.15 209.80 24.60 9.65 10.35 12.75 17.05 40.80 108.05 154.35 51.50 324.05 312.90 234.85 28.80 49.65 2.10 242.10 421.95 29.95 22.65 Sell 1 27,089 140.35 44.90 17.50 7.45 540.15 221.40 26.85 10.10 10.60 13.55 17.45 41.50 109.60 166.70 53.00 337.10 323.75 253.80 29.85 52.80 2.25 260.35 433.65 30.95 24.40 Sell 2 27,413 141.55 45.50 17.75 7.65 546.95 226.60 27.90 10.20 10.70 13.85 17.65 41.75 110.25 169.35 53.50 342.05 328.90 261.10 30.30 54.05 2.30 268.80 438.15 31.40 24.90 Pivot 26,886 138.90 44.35 17.30 7.30 535.55 218.20 26.25 9.90 10.55 13.30 17.35 41.25 109.15 161.85 52.50 333.05 320.90 247.95 29.55 51.85 2.20 255.45 430.05 30.70 23.75 KSE 100 INDEX 26765.49 Attock Cement 139.12 Adamjee Insurance 44.33 Askari Bank 17.20 Azgard Nine 7.24 Attock Petroleum 533.30 Attock Refinery 216.21 Bank Al-Falah 25.86 BankIslami Pak 9.99 Bank.Of.Punjab 10.50 Faysal Bank 13.20 Fauji Cement 17.28 41.28 Fauji Fert Bin Fauji Fertilizer 108.93 Habib Bank Ltd 164.01 52.49 Hub Power ICI Pakistan 332.17 Lucky Cement 318.64 MCB Bank Ltd 246.55 29.38 Maple Leaf Cement National Bank 51.56 NIB Bank 2.17 Oil & Gas Dev. XD 251.89 429.18 P.S.O. XD P.T.C.L.A 30.51 Sui North Gas 23.92

-4.37 1.06 2.18 -0.62 1.00 1.83 -1.07

CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI. RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70 Indicate overbought position.

GDR Update
Symbol $.Price MCB (1 GDR= 2 Shares) 5.00 OGDC (1 GDR= 10 Shares) 25.24 UBL (1 GDR= 4 Shares) 2.50 LUCK (1 GDR= 2 Shares) 6.00 HUBC (1 GDR= 25 Shares) 13.44 PKR/S 245.40 247.76 61.35 294.48 52.77

Book Closure
Company From To D/B/R Spot Date AGM-EOGM

WE Financial Services Corporate Office 506, Fifth Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange Building, Stock Exchange Road, Karachi - 74000, Pakistan URL: www.we.com.pk

Nishat Power Habib Bank Ltd. Kohinoor Spinning Mills Chakwal Spinning Mills EFU General Insurance Din Textile Mills Pak Datacom EFU Life Assurance Sunrays Textile Mills Indus Dyeing & Mfg. Atlas Insurance Linde Pakistan Abbott Laboratories

22-03-2014 22-03-2014 22-03-2014 22-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 03-04-2014 03-04-2014 09-04-2014

29-03-2014 29-03-2014 28-03-2014 28-03-2014 05-04-2014 04-04-2014 04-04-2014 05-04-2014 03-04-2014 03-04-2014 10-04-2014 16-04-2014 16-04-2014

10(II) 20(F),10(B) 10(I) 5(I) 40,28(B) 25(I) 20(I) 50 100(II) 100(II) 50(F),10(B) 40(F) 40(F)

14-03-2014 14-03-2014 14-03-2014 14-03-2014 20-03-2014 -

29-03-2014 05-04-2014 05-04-2015 10-04-2014 16-04-2014 16-04-2014

Indications # Extraordinary General Meeting

Disclaimer: All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, we do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy & completeness and it is not intended to be an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. WE Financial Services & its employees will not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement herein or for any omission. All opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our judgment as of the date mentioned in the report and are subject to change without notice. For live markets, historical data, charts/graphs and investment/technical analysis tools, please visit our website www.weonline.biz

We Research is Available on Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, S & P Capital IQ, FactSet

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