...Demographics are the statistical component of marketing used to identify population segments by specific characteristics. Business owners often first gather demographic information to include in the business plans used to raise start-up funds and guide the launching of the business. Demographic information includes geographic area, age, income, race, gender and education level. It also includes shopping habits, marital status, number of children and other information about consumer characteristics. The independent variables for this report will be population, average income per household, age of population, and the price of pizza. A key determinant of demand is the population of the area in question and as we will see in this report, growth will play a positive factor. Areas with higher income are willing to pay extra for a convenience of pizza delivery and typically hold more parties where pizza delivery is used as opposed to friends bringing food. The dependent variable is the number of pizzas sold in the area. Using a regression model we will input the dependent variable; value of pizzas sold, along with the independent variables; population, median household income and price. We then will look then look at the summary output from the regression to make some decision about bringing a pizza store to our city. the calculation of the regression analysis of the Domino’s pizza company, which is a procedure commonly used by economists to estimate consumer demand with...
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...a p p e n d i x C DEMAND FORECASTING IN MARKETING * When you finish this appendix you should • Understand the principles of forecasting. • Know the differences between Time Series and Regression Analyses. • Understand how expert opinion, sales forces and consumer opinions can all contribute to better forecasts. * by Beverley Thompson, The University of Western Sydney, Nepean Demand Forecasting in Mar keting w 689 An important part of the marketing planning process is the setting of goals that are realistic and achievable, given a particular marketing environment and level of marketing commitment. In marketing, such goals are usually based on market share objectives and sales targets, both of which require accurate forecasts of total market size, market size of target segments and likely market share within a targeted segment. W H AT A R E W E F O R E C A S T I N G ? Accurate forecasting requires a clear definition of the market in question. Markets may be differentiated on the basis of the following variables. GEOGRAPHY A market may be defined at world, country, state, region, sales territory, town, store or customer level. When formulating a forecast or other marketing plans, the geographical dimension must be clearly indicated. Planning Coca Cola consumption for the year 2000 Sydney Olympics for example, will necessitate the forecasting of increased consumption for the Sydney sales region, but not necessarily for Brisbane...
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...LECTURE 7 Forecasting with ARMA Models Minimum Mean-Square Error Prediction Imagine that y(t) is a stationary stochastic process with E{y(t)} = 0. We may be interested in predicting values of this process several periods into the future on the basis of its observed history. This history is contained in the so-called information set. In practice, the latter is always a finite set {yt , yt−1 , . . . , yt−p } representing the recent past. Nevertheless, in developing the theory of prediction, it is also useful to consider an infinite information set It = {yt , yt−1 , . . . , yt−p , . . .} representing the entire past. We shall denote the prediction of yt+h which is made at the time t by yt+h|t or by yt+h when it is clear that we are predicting h steps ahead. ˆ ˆ The criterion which is commonly used in judging the performance of an estimator or predictor y of a random variable y is its mean-square error defined ˆ 2 by E{(y − y ) }. If all of the available information on y is summarised in its ˆ marginal distribution, then the minimum-mean-square-error prediction is simply the expected value E(y). However, if y is statistically related to another random variable x whose value can be observed, and if the form of the joint distribution of x and y is known, then the minimum-mean-square-error prediction of y is the conditional expectation E(y|x). This proposition may be stated formally: (1) Let y = y (x) be the conditional expectation of y given x which is ˆ ˆ also expressed as y = E(y|x)...
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...Macroeconomic Forecast Since the recession ended in mid-2009, U.S. economy has been recovering sustainably from the crisis, though the pace has been uneven and slowed from 2010 to 2014. During the past five years, GDP grows up to nearly 2% each year and the stock market has heated up from its lows. However, significant economic weakness still remains evident with the weak recovery of the global economy. As the graph shows below, real GDP grew roughly 2.5% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011, 2.3% in 2012, 2.2% in 2013, and 2.4% in 2014. Assuming that US economy will keep growing steadily, it’s reasonable that we expect a roughly growth of 1% in next two quarters after December 2015. An inspection of unemployment rate shows that, the unemployment rate has been decreasing from 9.6% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2014, after its peak of 10.1% in October 2009. More specifically, the US gained 3.116 million jobs in the year of 2014. More jobs will be created in the next two quarters with our positive anticipation, but it’s hard to give an exact number due to a great many uncertainties in US economy. Inflation rate measures the increase in the general price level of goods and services over a period of time. According to Phillips curve, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Therefore, moderate inflation is acceptable in many cases because it usually means less unemployment and a booming market. As is shown in the chart, the inflation rates for the US are steadily around 1.5% to 3% during...
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...Industry Forecasting Conducting sales forecasts can prove to be one of the more complex responsibilities for management. Organizations must attempt to look to the future to plan for investments, commence new services or products, and make a decision on whether to suspend or extract other services or products that are currently on the market. Sales forecasts assist with preparing the budget, campaigns and new approaches for the future marketing plans. According to Mullins and Walker (2010) an organization must decide upon a technique to organize for forecasting. The organization must take into account the market potential to determine the consumer demand for new services or products. Forecasting assists in predicting sales revenue for at least five years in advance. Forecasting will also serve as a means to identify the target market and trends that could impact the sales of the new service or product. The cell phone industry has proven to be one with continuous evolvement. As technology advances the innovation and competitive market continues to generate more options for consumers at low competitive pricing. Consumers in the cell phone market are demanding higher quality cell phones with multi functioning capabilities that have forced manufacturers to create cell phones that combine numerous electronic devices into one cell phone. Cell phones are now being manufactured with the functioning of cameras, video cameras, computers, personal organizers, music players, global positioning...
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...CASE STUDY A STUDY ON “MISMATCH BETWEEN DEMANDS FOR AND SUPPLY OF GOLD’’ CASE STUDY SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF MASTERS OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT COURSE OF ALLIANCE UNIVERSITY SUBMITTED TO PROF DR.SAMIK SHOME (SENIOUR LECTURER) ALLIANCE BUSINESS SCHOOL SUBMITTED BY ABHISHEK M.R RAHUL CHARU BALDWA SHEIKH PARVESH T.SHAMEEL (2012-14, Section H) Group 01 LIST OF CONTENTS Serial Number | Contents | Page number | 1 | Executive summary | | 2 | Issue analysis | | 3 | Data analysis | | 4 | Key decision criteria | | 5 | Alternatives analysis | | 6 | Statistical data | | 7 | Non-Price factors | | 8 | Conclusion | | Executive summary India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world. India’s share alone for the demand of gold comes to around 25%, which is a very large number considering there are around 200 countries in this planet. One of the main possibilities for this astronomical demand for gold in India might be because of the fact that gold plays a major role in Indian culture. Festivals like Diwali and AkshayaTritiya demand the use of the gold irrespective of the fact that gold is a very costly metal. Gold is a commodity which represents status symbol (conspicuous goods) The reasons why there is a mismatch between the demand and the supply of gold in India is quite obvious. Hutti gold mine company in Karnataka being the only company in India to mine and process gold ore and the fact that...
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...Box-Jenkins Methodology Introduction Forecasting Basics: The basic idea behind self-projecting time series forecasting models is to find a mathematical formula that will approximately generate the historical patterns in a time series. Time Series: A time series is a set of numbers that measures the status of some activity over time. It is the historical record of some activity, with measurements taken at equally spaced intervals (exception: monthly) with a consistency in the activity and the method of measurement. Approaches to time Series Forecasting: There are two basic approaches to forecasting time series: the self-projecting time series and the cause-and-effect approach. Cause and effect methods attempt to forecast based on underlying series that are believed to cause the behavior of the original series. The self-projecting time series uses only the time series data of the activity to be forecast to generate forecasts. This latter approach is typically less expensive to apply and requires far less data and is useful for short to medium-term forecasting. Box-Jenkins Forecasting Method: The univariate version of this methodology is a self- projecting time series forecasting method. The underlying goal is to find an appropriate formula so that the residuals are as small as possible and exhibit no pattern. The model- building process involves four steps. Repeated as necessary, to end up with a specific formula that...
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...O.166 | | Exact Match | 0.17 | | Exact Match | .17 | | Exact Match | 17% | | Exact Match | 16.6% | | | | | | | * Question 3 4 out of 4 points | | | Problem 9: Which method of forcast in part a, b, and c give the best forecast?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | Exponentially smoothed forecast | Correct Answer: | Exponentially smoothed forecast | | | | | * Question 4 2 out of 2 points | | | Problem 26A: What is the Forecast if 30 permits are filed?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | 10.40 | Correct Answer: | | Evaluation Method | Correct Answer | Case Sensitivity | Exact Match | 10.40 | | Exact Match | 10.4 | | Exact Match | 10.40 Sale | | Exact Match | 10.40 Sales | | Exact Match | Y=10.40 | | | | | | | * Question 5 2 out of 2 points | | | Problem 26B: What is Correlation coefficient?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | .699 | Correct Answer: | | Evaluation Method | Correct Answer | Case Sensitivity | Exact Match | .699 | | Exact Match | 0.699 | | Exact Match | .70 | | Exact Match | 0.70 | | Exact Match | .6990 | | | | | | | * Question 6 2 out of 2 points | | | Problem 27A: What is the Forcast for temperature of 85°?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: |...
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...Financial Statements Paper Thomas Hastings ACC/290 April,11,2012 Rolland Roup Financial Statements Paper In the accounting world there are four different financial statements. These financial statements provide a very wide amount of information which is very valuable information to internal and external users in many different types of companies. These four financial statements are the balance sheet, income statement, retained earnings and statement of cash flow. These four financial statements form the backbone of financial accounting. (Kimmel, Weygandt, & Kieso, 2009) Each of the four financial statements has its own use’s within accounting and each provides different and very crucial information to its proper user’s. The first financial statement is the balance sheet, the balance sheet shows a picture at a point in time of what your business owns (its assets) and what it owes (its liabilities). The second financial statement is income statements show how successfully your business performed during a period of time, it reports revenues and expenses. The third financial statement is retained Earnings are used to indicate how much of the previous income was distributed to you and the owners of your business in the form of dividends, and how much was retained in the business to allow future growth. The fourth financial statements is statement of cash flow is to show where your business obtained cash during a period of time and how that cash was used. (Kimmel,...
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...SPORT OBREMEYER Sport Obermeyer designs and sells high-end skiwear from Colorado. Their products are sold in US departmental stores and specialty ski shops. Most of its production is carried out in honk Kong and china by its partner, Obersport. Annual production capacity is approximately 200,000 units. The minimum production quantity in Hong Kong is 600 units and 1200 units in china. They earn a 24% profit on whole sale price on every product and losses 8% on discounted sales. There are many challenges strangling this company as they serve fashion wear which are highly unpredictable. They have long lead times due to uncertain forecasts and geographical distance. The life cycle of their products are short leaving no time for comfortable manufacturing process. They have a seasonal demand with most of their sales happening during one quarter of the year. In case of stock outs they lose their 24% margin and make 8% losses on over stocked goods or marked down prices. This results in high holding costs. This highly volatile demand requires them to produce in two phases. One batch of production is to be carried out based on initial forecast and the other batch after the las vegas event requiring highly flexible supply and manufacturing process. The following exhibit shows the demand forecasts for 20000 units. STYLE | LAURA | CAROLYN | GREG | WENDY | TOM | WALLY | PRICE | Gail | 900 | 1000 | 900 | 1300 | 800 | 1200 | 110 | Isis | 800 | 700 | 1000 | 1600 | 950 | 1200 | 99 | ...
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...Unemployment Unemployment Rate in Uruguay decreased to 5.70 percent in July of 2014 from 6.90 percent in June of 2014. Unemployment Rate in Uruguay averaged 7.55 Percent from 2006 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 13.40 Percent in January of 2006 and a record low of 5.40 Percent in December of 2010.(www.tradingeconomics.com) The forcast for unemployment is at six and a half percent for the next year. This rate has economists concerned now, due to lack of skilled workers, and workers in general. The median age, in Uraguay, are older and this has meant a lower birth rate. Lower birth rate means, less people to employ for certain jobs in Uraguay. Since 2002 there has been a steady economic growth rate. A report stated that “sustained economic growth over the last few years, and increase in foreign investment and in agriculture and forestry has created many new jobs and now it is hard to satisfy the demand for adequately skilled workers”. (www.en.mercopress.com) A new pulp mill and mining are expecting to need approximately 10,000 new workers. As a solution to this problem incentives are being offered to Uruguayans living abroad to return to their country and join in the construction boom and industry work. Even with low rates in unemployment it seems to have a reverse effect on the economy to attain the number of workers once a shortage of work has now become a shortage of workers. The government has now reached out to women and the young for training of basic skills...
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...Monsanto Place and Price Analysis Fundamentals of Marketing and Sales BUS3030 Pamela Vest PLACE Distribution Channels Monsanto, an agriculture company, creates, produces, and provides genetically modified seeds to farmers around the world. With the issues of agriculture, Monsanto is working to produce more, conserve more, and improving lives (Monsanto, 2014). As the world’s population grows and not enough of land suitable for agriculture, farmers must produce more. Farmer’s crops yield more, and are reducing water, nutrients, and energy by using the Monsanto seeds. Monsanto creates genetically modified seeds in labs, by taking two good parents and breeds them to produce an offspring plant that is suitable for a certain agricultural area. With manufacturing plants, seed production facilities, and research centers scattered around the world, Monsanto distribution channels are focused around the geographic area near these facilities. Monsanto produces the seeds in their plants and must produce and distribute enough to meet the weekly high demands of farmers. With the precise timing the production and distribution plans due to the high demand, make for a more credible business approach. Monsanto manufacturing plants lack the storage spaces for the seeds, resulting in Monsanto having to use Public Storage facilities. Once at the public storage facilities, seeds are then delivered to distributor warehouse, and then they are delivered to retailers, whole sellers, trade...
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...of the 8th, when it read 29.42 inches. The barometer fell rapidly from noon until 8:30 p.m. of the 8th, when it registered 28.48 inches, a fall of pressure of about one inch in eight and one-half hours. After 8:30 p.m. the barometer rose at the same rapid rate that had characterized the fall. The barograph trace sheet during this storm, from noon September 6. To prevent more destruction they made a sea wall. I believe that a sea wall, which would have broken the swells, would have saved much loss of both life and property. It also prevents the flooding which people die from drowning. You heard our story about the 1900 Galveston hurricane. It’s your turn to share this horrible disaster to the world. Please be safe and listen to the news forcast. ...
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...Cash flow forcast * Ensure you know the payment terms of your customers and suppliers * Ensure you know all the direct debit payments\BACs transfers * Identify payment dates for VAT and PAYE * Identify all suppliers for utilities,telecommunications * Check your balances each day to review forecast * Flex your costs in line with revenues 2.Supplier Negotiation * Get several quotes to compare prices * Ask for discounts on early payment * Negotiable better payment terms with suppliers * Ensure that you have contracts for large supplier * Only pay for goods when due or pay early if discounts are offered 3.Inventory Management * Only buy stock when you have costumer order * Ask suppliers for consignment stock * Ensure you use space effectively to reduce storage costs * Do not set up premises too far away from costumers 4.Costumers * Perform a credit check on large costumers (Experian/Equafox) * Provide discounts for costumers to pay early * Be clear about charging interest on late payments * Provide a contract of service and explain payment terms * Identify the best contact to maintain a strong relationship 5.Order Fulfilment * Ensure costumer orders are worked on as soon as possible * Used scheduling systems to ensure orders are tracked * Quality check goods/services at the point of delivery * Confirm customer is satisfied with the goods/services * Ask accounts to raise...
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...are important to the majority of new builds * All customers are happy to pay for delivery if purchasing online | Market trends and developments(pages 12 – 13) | * Customers are looking for high quality and unique items * High population growth in the Queensland area * | Competition(page 15) | * The Yard – limited selection, high priced, * BBQS R US – broad range, cheaper products, * Outdoorz – mass market and a good sales price, extensive adverting * Local independent competition- low priced and a large market share | Profitability and sales figures(pages 5, 21) | $6677,000 gross profit$4884,714 total expenses1792,286 Net Profit 2011 sales – total revenue $9973,000 * Gross profit on sales $4804,000 | Sales forcast` | 2012 - $11000000 – Gross Profit - $51100002013 - $12000000 – Gross Profit - $ 65000002014 - $15000000 – Gross Profit - $7500000 | The Marketing Manager has asked you to assess two potential new markets and consider them in terms of likely contribution to the business (page 27). * What effect might entering the market have on sales, growth, market share or profitability? Would it be positive or negative? Potential new market | Likely contribution to the business | Bargain (low-cost products) market | Low cost items could bring a new demographic of clientele into the stores and also encourage customers already in the store to purchase additional items. Sales...
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