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Forecasting: Relying on the Unknown

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Forecasting: Relying On The Unknown http://www.manufacturing.net/articles/2007/10/forecasting-relying-on-the-unknown September 23, 2007 was the autumnal equinox — the official end of summer. The leaves are beginning to turn colors and the seasons are changing. For some manufacturers, the end of summer could be the end of a busy season, or it could just be the beginning. If you manufacture beach towels or Christmas trees, you’re locked into seasonal demand. How do you adjust your operations to handle your peak time? How much of a peak period will you have? How much capacity will you need? What will be your inventory storage and holding costs? Factors and Consequences There is a lot of variability when it comes to demand — consumer tastes may change, competition could increase, weather patterns could change, etc. “The farther away in time a forecast is from the sales it projects, the less accurate the forecast will be. This stands to reason that the longer the horizon, the more changes will take place between the forecast and the actual sales,” said Jane Lee, Vice President of Supply Chain, Supply Chain Consultants. “Picture a company that makes orange juice,” said Jim LeSage, Executive Vice President with The Facility Group. “They may be producing more at the start of the school year or during cold and flu season, but the oranges are only harvested at a certain time.” That leaves the orange juice company with few options, LeSage explains. The company can store the finished product or it can store it in working form. Even if you’ve checked all the factors and made the best prediction you possibly can, there is no guarantee that you’ll be right. “Remember the Atkins diet? Think about the number of companies that were impacted by its unexpected popularity,” said LeSage. “While you can’t predict everything, you can hedge against it.”

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