...Forecasting Methods Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting...
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...Forecasting is an important aspect in today’s business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the company’s business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is done. Understanding the Financial Relationships of the Business Enterprise Forecasters use current information to predict the future business activities of the company. This information is found on the financial statements of the company. For example, the balance sheet provides a snapshot of the business’ assets, liabilities and equity at a specific point in time, whereas the incomes statement provides a view of the flow of costs during a specific time frame. Financial ratios measure the relationships between various items on the financial statements. By comparing various ratios with those of previous years, trends can be identified. Because many financial ratios tend to be perserved over time, these ratios are very valuable for the forcaster. The forecaster can estimate only one financial statement line item and, by applying this number to the various ratios, he can make a complete forecast. Grounding Business Forecasts in the Reality of the Industry and Macroenvironment An accurate forecast is made by recognizing not only internal data, but also external data. The environment...
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...TOPIC 1. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING TOPIC I TOPIC I. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING Contents 1. Meaning of forecasting 2. Features, importance and limitations of forecasting 3. Forecast types 1. Meaning of forecasting Forecast is a likely, scientifically well-grounded opinion about the possible state of the events, objects or processes in the future. Forecasting is a process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Economic Forecasting is a process of making forecasts based on analysis of past trends and regularities of the economic processes. Economic forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation – for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit – or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific companies. Economic forecasting provides information about the potential future events and their consequences for the organization. It may not reduce the complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. Economic forecasting includes the following steps: 1. Identifying items to be forecast. The items of socio-economic forecasting are the economic processes (for example, inflation, demand, supply), any indicator describing the company activity (for example...
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...What is Forecasting? Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. Forecasting can be seen as a planning tool for managers to attempt to cope with the uncertainty of the future. Managers are constantly trying to predict the future, making decisions in the present that will ensure the continued success of their firms. Managers use forecasts for budgeting purposes. A forecast aids in determining volume of production, inventory needs, labor hours required, cash requirements, and financing needs. A variety of forecasting methods are available. However, consideration has to be given to cost, preparation time, accuracy, and time period. The manager must understand clearly the assumptions on which a particular forecast method is based to obtain maximum benefit. 1 Types of Forecasts Short Term Short-range forecasts typically encompass the immediate future and concern the day to day operations of a firm. A short-term forecast usually only covers a period of a few months and can be considered an “operating” forecast. Medium Term Medium-range forecasts typically span a few months up to a year. A forecast of this length can be considered “tactical” in nature. Long Term Long-range forecasts typically encompass a period longer than 1 to 2 years. These forecasts are considered strategic and are generally related to management’s attempt to plan new products or build new facilities. 2 Forecasting Methods Time Series ...
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...Forecasting Student name Institution Forecasting Explain how forecasting is used in the real world. Provide a specific example from your own line of work, or a line of work that you find particularly interesting For humankind, the estimation of the future is a task that has to be done on a daily basis. The economic world issues the forecasting to assisting in the planning and making accurate decision concerning an economic activity. This is because resources are scarce and therefore they have to spend in the most beneficial way. Besides economic forecasting is used in the daily weather reports to determine what the weather will be. Forecasting also assist in the transport sector to schedule flights based on the said weather forecast. In the investment world, the potential investors rely heavily on the forecast concerning their intended investor form. These forecasts are usually made by the investment experts as well as the government concerning the expected behavior of the stock market as well as the financial markets. The analysis depends on the past performance to help predict the future. This data is carefully analyzed to help project into the future of the business. It is believed that the future and the past share common similarities as the future are heavily dependent on the past. However, for the investors to make accurate decisions, they must have ala the relevant information concerning the firm they are focusing on. The data has to be accurate and comprehensive...
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...FORECASTING FUNDAMENTALS Forecast: A prediction, projection, or estimate of some future activity, event, or occurrence. Types of Forecasts * Economic forecasts * Predict a variety of economic indicators, like money supply, inflation rates, interest rates, etc. * Technological forecasts * Predict rates of technological progress and innovation. * Demand forecasts * Predict the future demand for a company’s products or services. Since virtually all the operations management decisions (in both the strategic category and the tactical category) require as input a good estimate of future demand, this is the type of forecasting that is emphasized in our textbook and in this course. TYPES OF FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition, emotions, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous mathematical computations. Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on mathematical (quantitative) models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations. QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative Methods ...
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...Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process • Determine purpose of the forecast • Establish a time horizon • Select forecasting technique • Gather and analyze the appropriate data • Prepare the forecast • Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts • Qualitative o Judgment and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique • Quantitative o Regression and Correlation (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time Series Data • What is Time Series? • Components (behavior) of Time Series data o Trend o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. [pic] Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques ...
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...Forecasting LANCELOT PALMER HSM/260 July 5, 2015 Florence Wisn Forecasting Exercise 9.1 The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years: 20X1 $5,250,000 20X2 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 For moving averages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses 20X2 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 20X2-4 $18,250,000 20X5 $18,250,000/3 = $6,083,333 Weighted Averages Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $5,500,000 1 $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 2 $12,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 3 $20,250,000 6 $37,750,000 20X5 $37,750,000/6 = $6,291,667 Exponential Smoothing ...
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...Forecasting Methods and Forecast Modeling Sources of Forecasting Errors Although larger samples improve forecasting precision, samples may be limited if older data are unavailable or not comparable. Data collected more frequently increases sample size but may not add much information. Because forecast inferences cannot be based on future data, extrapolation of past relationships results in an unknown amount of bias, especially if (1) explanatory variables move outside their historical range (2) some variables no longer are important while others become important (3) variable coefficients change substantially or switch signs Conditional forecasting occurs when one or more explanatory variables must be guessed because their values not known with certainty for the period forecast. Unconditional forecasting occurs when the future values of all explanatory variables are known with certainty. In conditional forecasting, errors may be huge because we first must forecast values of the explanatory variables. Only unconditional forecasts are free of these errors. Contingency forecasting involves generating several forecasts, one for each alternative set of circumstances, or "scenario," that is likely to arise. The estimation period is the time series data used to fit a forecasting model. Ex post forecasting involves "forecasting" the most recent observations after withholding them from the estimation period. By contrast, ex ante forecasting uses an estimation period...
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...Forecasting is described as, “the art and science of predicting future events” (Heizer, Render, & Griffen, 2014). It’s used a planning tool that helps management cope with the uncertainty of the future. Forecasting has many purposes within businesses and the purpose will vary depending on what type of organization you’re running or working for. Forecasting includes many different types of techniques that have the ability to give detailed information about future measurements, challenges of future events, and the changes in the environment. It can also analyze present data and effective planning in both the short run and the long run fully depends on the forecasts established for the company’s products. Forecasting gives confidence in those making important decisions due to the relevant and reliable information predicted. Forecasting may involve the use of historical data through mathematical equations to track future trends, which is known as quantitative forecasts. Quantitative methods of forecasting falls into two categories, the Time Series Models such as Naïve Approach, Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing as well as the Associative Model that includes Trend Projection and Linear Regression. Forecasting may also be used in a more subjective or intuitive prediction if historical data is not present, which is known as qualitative forecasts. This category of forecasting involves four specific techniques used, Jury of executive opinion, Delphi Method, Sales Force Composite...
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...FORECASTING - a method for translating past experience into estimates of the future. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of the expected value for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. The process of climate change and increasing energy prices has led to the usage of Egain Forecasting of buildings. The method uses Forecasting to reduce the energy needed to heat the building, thus reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces...
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...companies on a daily basis. Forecasting allows managers to plan according to future events and be prepared to use the system accordingly. With a prediction of the future managers reduce uncertainty and develop plans. The historical data is put together and analyzed to determine forecast events. All large companies use forecasting to make important strategic business decision. This helps them save costs and manage their resources effectively. A firm that is prepared for future occurences will have a healthy financial position. Forecast is of great use to a company because it affects several departments throughout the company. Some of the departments affected are: accounting and finance, marketing, operations, human resources, and information systems. Budgeting, sales, production, inventory control, capacity planning, and purchasing make use of forecasting. Accounting and finance use the data collected to estimate future costs, predict profit or loss, and identify resources available. The marketing department uses forecasting to predict prices and create promotions. The operations of a company is able to run smoothly because job schedules, production schedules, capacity planning, inventory planning, and detecting outsourcing needs are predicted ahead of time. Human resources also benefits from forecasting because seasonal or cyclical hiring is scheduled ahead of time. The company’s information systems are being monitored and revised to keep up with the forecasting results. There are...
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... $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 20X2-4 $18,250,000 20X5 $18,250,000/3 = $6,083,333 Weighted Expenses: Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score 20X2 $5,500,000 x 1 = $5,500,000 20X3 $6,000,000 x 2 = $12,000,000 20X4 $6,750,000 x 3 = $20,250,000 6 $37,750,000 20X5 $37,750,000/6 = $6,291,667 Exponential Smoothing: Given The last forecasting (LF) = $6,300,000, the last data (LD) = $6,750,000, a = 0.95 I have used the 0.95 alpha because I believe the new forecast will be based on the last data. NF = LF + a (LD – LF) NF= $6,300,000 + 0.95 ($6,750,000 - $6,300,000) NF = $6,300,000 + 0.95 ($450,000) NF = $6,300,000 + $427,500 NF = $6,727,500 20X5 = $6,727,500 Time Series Regression: Computer Output Constant = 4625000 Variable = 500000 R-Square = 0.95 Y = A + BX Y = $462,500 + $500,000X Y = $462,500 + $500,000 (5) Y = $462,500 + $2,500,000 Y = $7,125,000 20X5 = $7,125,000 I choose to use the time series regression because it reveals that the expenses will continue to grow on 20X5 and the years after 20X5. Exercise 9.3 Moving Expenses: Fiscal Year Expenses ...
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...Complete the following case study and problems and submit the results in either a Microsoft Word document or a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. If you choose to use an Excel spreadsheet, place each problem on a separate sheet and label the tab with problem number. Save your document with a descriptive file name, including the assignment and your name. | Chapter 4: * North-South Airline Case Study: In January 2008, Northern Airlines merged with Southeast Airlines . . . 3-1 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Year Demand for fertilizer (1,000s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 9 7 10 8 11 9 15 10 16 11 18 a. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. b. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 3 and a weight of 2 for the second past year and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. c. Which method do you think is best? In this case, the 3 year moving average is the better method as the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is only 3.042 as compared to 3.347 for the weighted moving average method. What it actually means is that each forecast missed the actual value by 3.042 units instead of 3.347 units. d. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software. e. You have now developed...
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...MEASURING FORECASTING ERROR (The students are advised to refer to the book under reference for details.) Because quantitative forecasting techniques frequently involve time series data, a mathematical notation is developed to refer to each specific time period. The letter Y will be used to denote a time series variable unless there is more than one variable involved. The time period associated with an observation is shown as a subscript. Thus Y1 refers to the value of the time series at time period t. The quarterly data for the Outboard Marine Corporation presented in Example 3.5 (see p. 73) would be denoted Y1 = 147.6,Y2 = 251.8, Y3 = 273.1, ... , Y52 = 281.4. Mathematical notation must also be developed for distinguishing between an actual value of time series and the forecast value. A^ (hat) will be placed above a value to indicate that it is being forecast. The forecast value for Yt is Yt^. The accuracy of a forecasting technique is frequently judged by comparing the original series Y1, Y2, ... with the series of forecast values Y^1, Y^ 2, .... Basic Forecasting Notation Basic forecasting notation is summarized as follows. Yt = value of time series at period t t = forecast value of Yt et = Yt - Yt^ = residual, or forecast error Several methods have been devised to summarize the errors generated by a particular forecasting technique. Most of these measures involve averaging some function of the difference between...
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