...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...Essays Essays Part II. 2, 2.] Part II. 2, 2.] Essays The Project Gutenberg EBook of Essays, by Ralph Waldo Emerson This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.net Title: Essays Author: Ralph Waldo Emerson Editor: Edna H. L. Turpin Release Date: September 4, 2005 [EBook #16643] Language: English Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 *** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS *** 1 Essays Produced by Curtis A. Weyant , Sankar Viswanathan and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net ESSAYS BY RALPH WALDO EMERSON Merrill's English Texts SELECTED AND EDITED, WITH INTRODUCTION AND NOTES, BY EDNA H.L. TURPIN, AUTHOR OF "STORIES FROM AMERICAN HISTORY," "CLASSIC FABLES," "FAMOUS PAINTERS," ETC. NEW YORK CHARLES E. MERRILL CO. 1907 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION LIFE OF EMERSON CRITICAL OPINIONS CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF PRINCIPAL WORKS THE AMERICAN SCHOLAR COMPENSATION SELF RELIANCE FRIENDSHIP HEROISM MANNERS GIFTS NATURE SHAKESPEARE; OR, THE POET PRUDENCE CIRCLES NOTES PUBLISHERS' NOTE Merrill's English Texts 2 Essays 3 This series of books will include in complete editions those masterpieces of English Literature that are best adapted for the use of schools and colleges. The editors of the several volumes will...
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...AFGE 2013 Issue Papers Table of Contents Another Manufactured Crisis: What’s Next in the Fiscal Showdown………1 Federal Pay……………………………………………………………….…..…..4 Federal Employees’ Health Benefits Program……………………………….15 Official Time for Federal Employee Union Representatives………….........22 Arbitrary Cuts in Civil Servants………………………………………………..26 Sourcing: Complying with the Law……………………………………….......31 Capping Taxpayer-Funded Service Contractor Compensation……………43 Transportation Security Administration and TSOs…………………………..46 Domestic Partnership Benefits……………………………..………………….49 Employment Non-Discrimination Act……………………………………..…..55 Paid Parental Leave………………………………………………..…………..57 One America, Many Voices Act………………………………………….…....60 Department of Veterans Affairs…………………………………..……………62 Department of Defense……………………………...……….………………...71 Federal Prisons………………………………………………………………….90 Social Security Administration ……………………………………….…...…103 National Guard/Reserve Technicians ………………………...……….……108 D.C. Workers’ Issues …………………...……………………………..…..…117 Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. ……………………..……...120 Another Manufactured Crisis: What’s Next in the Fiscal Showdown? Background At the beginning of January, President Obama signed a tax deal that restored higher Clinton-era rates to those making over $450,000, and funded an extension of unemployment insurance benefits to the long-term unemployed, extended for another year the $240 monthly transit subsidy, but did not...
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...... 490 Book X, "Relating to War" ................................................................... 521 Book XI, "The Conduct of Corporations" ............................................ 541 Book XII, "Concerning a Powerful Enemy" ......................................... 547 Book XIII, "Strategic Means to Capture a Fortress" ............................ 563 Book XIV, "Secret Means" ................................................................... 584 Book XV, "The Plan of a Treatise" ....................................................... 607 2 Kautilya's Arthashastra Book I, "Concerning Discipline" CHAPTER I. THE LIFE OF A KING Óm. Salutation to Sukra and Brihaspati. This Arthasástra is made as a compendium of almost all the Arthasástras, which, in view of acquisition and maintenance of the earth, have been composed by ancient teachers. Of this work, the following...
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...RESEARCH PAPER 06/36 19 JUNE 2006 A Political and Economic Introduction to China “If the 20th century ended in 1989, the 21st began in 1978” Martin Jacques, The Guardian, 25 May 2006 China’s political and economic rise and what it means for the world is now a central preoccupation of analysts and policy-makers. Public awareness of China is likely to increase as the 2008 Olympics in Beijing draw near. This Research Paper is intended to act as a resource that Members of Parliament and their staff can draw upon when engaging with China’s remarkable transformation. Part I provides key facts and figures about China. Parts II and III review recent developments and future prospects by addressing four key questions. Is political authoritarianism sustainable? Can China’s development be peaceful? What are the main domestic economic challenges facing China? What is China’s impact on the world economy? Part IV summarises key aspects of UK and EU relations with China. The Paper ends with a select bibliography of key sources. The Research Paper is intended to act as a platform for a series of Library Standard Notes that will address in more depth specific issues about China that there is space here only to discuss briefly. Jon Lunn, Maria Lalic, Ben Smith and Claire Taylor INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND DEFENCE SECTION Ed Beale, Ed Potton, Ian Townsend and Dominic Webb ECONOMIC POLICY AND STATISTICS SECTION HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: List of 15...
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...Benjamin Franklin The Brontës Charles Dickens edgar allan poe Geoffrey Chaucer George eliot George Gordon, lord Byron henry David Thoreau herman melville Jane austen John Donne and the metaphysical poets John milton Jonathan Swift mark Twain mary Shelley Nathaniel hawthorne Oscar Wilde percy Shelley ralph Waldo emerson robert Browning Samuel Taylor Coleridge Stephen Crane Walt Whitman William Blake William Shakespeare William Wordsworth Bloom’s Classic Critical Views W i l l ia m Sha k e Sp e a r e Edited and with an Introduction by Sterling professor of the humanities Yale University harold Bloom Bloom’s Classic Critical Views: William Shakespeare Copyright © 2010 Infobase Publishing Introduction © 2010 by Harold Bloom All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage or retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the publisher. For more information contact: Bloom’s Literary Criticism An imprint of Infobase Publishing 132 West 31st Street New York NY 10001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data William Shakespeare / edited and with an introduction by Harold Bloom : Neil Heims, volume editor. p. cm. — (Bloom’s classic critical views) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-60413-723-1 (hardcover) ISBN 978-1-4381-3425-3 (e-book) 1. Shakespeare, William, 1564–1616—Criticism and...
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...FREAKONOMICS A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything Revised and Expanded Edition Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner CONTENTS AN EXPLANATORY NOTE In which the origins of this book are clarified. vii PREFACE TO THE REVISED AND EXPANDED EDITION xi 1 INTRODUCTION: The Hidden Side of Everything In which the book’s central idea is set forth: namely, if morality represents how people would like the world to work, then economics shows how it actually does work. Why the conventional wisdom is so often wrong . . . How “experts”— from criminologists to real-estate agents to political scientists—bend the facts . . . Why knowing what to measure, and how to measure it, is the key to understanding modern life . . . What is “freakonomics,” anyway? 1. What Do Schoolteachers and Sumo Wrestlers Have in Common? 15 In which we explore the beauty of incentives, as well as their dark side—cheating. Contents Who cheats? Just about everyone . . . How cheaters cheat, and how to catch them . . . Stories from an Israeli day-care center . . . The sudden disappearance of seven million American children . . . Cheating schoolteachers in Chicago . . . Why cheating to lose is worse than cheating to win . . . Could sumo wrestling, the national sport of Japan, be corrupt? . . . What the Bagel Man saw: mankind may be more honest than we think. 2. How Is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents? 49 In which it is argued that nothing is more powerful than information,...
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...The London School of Economics and Political Science THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE DEMOCRATISATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS: From ‘Soft Power’ to Collective Decision-Making? Saif Al-Islam Alqadhafi A thesis submitted to the Department of Philosophy of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2007 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. 2 Abstract This dissertation analyses the problem of how to create more just and democratic global governing institutions, exploring the approach of a more formal system of collective decision-making by the three main actors in global society: governments, civil society and the business sector. The thesis seeks to make a contribution by presenting for discussion an addition to the system of international governance that is morally...
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...CRIME, PROCEDURE AND EVIDENCE IN A COMPARATIVE AND INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT This book aims to honour the work of Professor Mirjan Damaška, Sterling Professor of Law at Yale Law School and a prominent authority for many years in the fields of comparative law, procedural law, evidence, international criminal law and Continental legal history. Professor Damaška’s work is renowned for providing new frameworks for understanding different legal traditions. To celebrate the depth and richness of his work and discuss its implications for the future, the editors have brought together an impressive range of leading scholars from different jurisdictions in the fields of comparative and international law, evidence and criminal law and procedure. Using Professor Damaška’s work as a backdrop, the essays make a substantial contribution to the development of comparative law, procedure and evidence. After an introduction by the editors and a tribute by Harold Koh, Dean of Yale Law School, the book is divided into four parts. The first part considers contemporary trends in national criminal procedure, examining cross-fertilisation and the extent to which these trends are resulting in converging practices across national jurisdictions. The second part explores the epistemological environment of rules of evidence and procedure. The third part analyses human rights standards and the phenomenon of hybridisation in transnational and international criminal law. The final part of the book assesses Professor...
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...Chapter Seventeen – Slipping Nooses, Slaying Demons Part III Chapter Eighteen – Paris and Berlin Chapter Nineteen – The Mile-High Club Chapter Twenty – Sarahcuda Chapter Twenty-One – September Surprise Chapter Twenty-Two – Seconds in Command Chapter Twenty-Three – The Finish Line Epilogue – Together at Last Index Author’s Notes About the Authors Copyright About the Publisher Prologue BARACK OBAMA JERKED BOLT upright in bed at three o’clock in the morning. Darkness enveloped his low-rent room at the Des Moines Hampton Inn; the airport across the street was quiet in the hours before dawn. It was very late December 2007, a few days ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Obama had been sprinting flat out for president for nearly a year. Through all the nights he’d endured in cookie-cutter hotels during the months of uncertainty and angst —months of lagging by a mile in the national polls, his improbable bid for the White House written off by the Washington smart set, his self-confidence shaken by his uneven performance and the formidability of his archrival, Hillary Clinton—Obama always slept...
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...25 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England First published in 2006 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Copyright © Elizabeth Gilbert, 2006 All rights reserved LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Gilbert, Elizabeth, date. Eat, pray, love: one woman’s search for everything across Italy, India and Indonesia / Elizabeth Gilbert p. cm. ISBN 0-670-03471-1 1. Gilbert, Elizabeth, date—Travel. 2. Travelers’ writings, American. I. Title. G154.5.G55A3 2006 910.4—dc22 [B] 2005042435 Printed in the United States of America Set in Italian Garamond with Tagliente Display Designed by Elke Sigal Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by...
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...Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England First published in 2006 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Copyright © Elizabeth Gilbert, 2006 All rights reserved LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Gilbert, Elizabeth, date. Eat, pray, love: one woman’s search for everything across Italy, India and Indonesia / Elizabeth Gilbert p. cm. ISBN 0-670-03471-1 1. Gilbert, Elizabeth, date—Travel. 2. Travelers’ writings, American. I. Title. G154.5.G55A3 2006 910.4—dc22 [B] 2005042435 Printed in the United States of America Set in Italian Garamond with Tagliente Display Designed by Elke Sigal Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a...
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...25 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England First published in 2006 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Copyright © Elizabeth Gilbert, 2006 All rights reserved LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Gilbert, Elizabeth, date. Eat, pray, love: one woman’s search for everything across Italy, India and Indonesia / Elizabeth Gilbert p. cm. ISBN 0-670-03471-1 1. Gilbert, Elizabeth, date—Travel. 2. Travelers’ writings, American. I. Title. G154.5.G55A3 2006 910.4—dc22 [B] 2005042435 Printed in the United States of America Set in Italian Garamond with Tagliente Display Designed by Elke Sigal Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by...
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...England Penguin Ireland, 25 St. Stephen's Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) - Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-110 017, India ' Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, NewZealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) - Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England First published in 2005 by The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. Copyright ©Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2005 All rights reserved Page 397 constitutes an extension of this copyright page, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Sachs, Jeffrey. The e n d of poverty / Jeffrey Sachs. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-59420-045-9 1. Poverty—Developing countries. 2. Developing countries—Economic policy. 3. Developing countries—Economic conditions. 4. Economic assistance—Developing countries. I. title. HC59.72.P6S225 2005 339.4'6'091724—dc22 2004065942 This book is printed on acid-free paper. @ Printed in the United States of America 13 5 79 BY 10 MAUNA 8 6 4 2 EICHNER DESIGNED Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication maybe...
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