...Decision Analysis DISC 321 Case 2 Group 3 Hafsa Siddique 17110055 Faisal Ali 17110282 Aleem ud din Khan 17110267 Hassaan Butt 17110117 We first divided the mess being analyzed into a clear, structured problem statement as follows Objective: To decide if Freemark Abbey Winery should harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or leave them on the vines despite the approaching storm. Assumptions: 1-We assumed that the list of possibilities provided is mutually exclusive as well as exhaustive. This means that either one has to occur, as well as no other possible option exists. 2-The payoffs are calculated based on 1000 cases of wine. 3-The given probabilities accurately reflect reality Analysis: At the moment Freemark Abbey Winery has two alternatives: to harvest or not to harvest. If they choose not to harvest there is 50% chance that storm might hit. And if the storm hits there is a probability of 40% that Botryis mold will form which will significantly affect the revenue. Freemark Abbey Winery faces another decision if the storm hits and Botryis mold will not form, because if Botryis mold will not form the sugar level which determines the quality of wine and revenue will be different, so the decision that they faces is that whether to sell the grapes in bulk or to make and sell the wine themselves. If the storm hits and mold is formed then the revenue will be 67,200 but the chance of this happening is only 40%. As compared to this there is a 60% chance that mold...
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...Freemark Abbey Strategic Decision Making Problem Freemark Abbey has an invaluable reputation as a winery that produces high quality, premium wines from the best variety of grapes. The quality and brand built throughout the years is the cumulative result of making well thought out, informed decisions that have earned Freemark Abbey the respect and demand in the winemaking industry. Several considerations are given in producing a consistently high quality product. The seeds, soil, weather, maturation time of the grapes, timing of the harvest, fermentation time, acidity and sugar levels all play an important role in product delivery. Careful consideration must be given in order to uphold one of Freemark Abbey's greatest strengths, it's reputation. For this decision, we considered multiple points in the decision making process, considering the probability of rain, sugar and acidity levels, as well as the possibility of botrytis mold forming after a potential rainstorm. With reports of a rainstorm ahead with a 50% chance of it striking the winery, we constructed a decision tree and analysis to help guide the decision process and support the resulting recommendation. Initially, Mr. Jaeger is faced with two options; harvest the grapes immediately or wait for the storm to occur at a 50% probability. The options provide very different outcomes that will ultimately affect the winery's earnings and brand. If the grapes are harvested immediately, there is very list risk...
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...Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640 EV of “Harvest”: $34200 If the winery’s reputation is of great importance for long term profitability, he should choose to sell the wine in bulk, or sell the grapes directly to avoid impairing reputation. Besides, Riesling wines contribute only about 1,000 cases of wine, and the whole winery produced about 25,000 cases of wine bottled each year. Since the Riesling takes only about 4% of winery’s total production and the decision analysis only affects a small proportion of winery revenues, an expected value approach is used (not expected utility approach). However, if Jaeger is extremely risk average or the winery could not afford any risks at that time, he could choose to harvest immediately to reduce uncertainty. 3. Incorporate the option that Jaeger can obtain perfect weather information on the path of the storm into your decision tree. Note that the type of storm remains uncertain. 4. What should he do now? And at most how much he is willing to pay for this...
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...I participated in Teladoc’s webinar, “Behavioral Health Goes Virtual.” This webinar begins to ramp up Teladoc’s push for virtual behavioral health visits with psychologist, psychiatrists, and other licensed therapists. They are transforming their access to care through enhanced programs like behavioral health, dermatology, and tobacco cessation. They began the webinar by presenting a need for a more comprehensive behavioral health solution. According to their studies, over 240 billion dollars was spent last year by the U.S. system on behavioral health issues and 45% of those untreated cited cost as a major barrier to care. Only 41% of adults with a mental health condition received health services in the past year. Teladoc plans to capture some of these people untreated by offering convenient access to quality care they can trust. The ROI proposition that they presented is that their services will lower overall costs for healthcare by being more accurate in diagnosing behavioral health issues and providing more effective care that will result in happy and healthier employees. Their studies show that depression leads to lost productivity and employees loose an average of 9.9 annual sick days due to depression. More tele-behavioral providers means a better ability to serve more people in need. A total of 818 tele-behavioral providers will be participating on Teladoc’s behavioral platform. This includes 119 Psychiatrists, 109 Psychologists, and 590 Masters-level therapists...
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...Freemark Abbey Winery Case The Freemark Abbey Winery must decide whether to harvest their grape crop before or after an incoming storm. If the storm is light there is a chance of the grapes developing a mold, which is beneficial to the flavor and increases the wine’s value. There is also a possibility that the grapes will not become botrytised and will simply absorb water which will reduce the wine value. There are a number of options available to the winery in this situation. The grapes may be harvested immediately, resulting in a reduced revenue. This option is low risk, but also has low return as the grapes will reach a market value of $2.85 per case. If harvested and sold in bulk the grapes will be values at only $1.00 per case. If 12,000 cases are produced the total revenue will be $34,200 maximum and $12,000 minimum. The advantages of this are that the entire grape crop is not going to be lost (low risk), that there will be a guarantee of some profit, and that production can begin earlier. On the other hand there is a higher likelihood of a low return, particularly on the grapes sold in bulk. If the grapes are left on the vine and a storm does not come they will only ripen more. This option could lead to equal or greater profits than those found by harvesting immediately. The grapes left on the vine will have the potential to develop to bring in anywhere from $30000 to $46000. The disadvantages of this option would be the potential that the grapes’ sugar will not develop...
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...information you provided on the imminent storm and its potential consequences, I have made significant headway in determining what course(s) of action Freemark Abbey Winery can take confidently. However, more important than what the two page summary explains is the information it disregards. The limited scope of information in regards to harvesting options, brand reputation, competitive analysis, managerial risk tolerance, and consumer preferences contribute to a considerable framing bias. Additionally, we have failed to consider the decision of when/how to harvest the Riesling grapes from the perspectives of the various parties involved, including but not limited to other owners, your families, company shareholders, competitors, employees, retailers, and your own. These perspectives are essential in formulating the appropriate problem from which to solve your dilemma. If short-term profit maximization is your goal, with no regard for any of the considerations listed above (a non-exhaustive list), then your best alternative is not to harvest any of your Riesling grapes before the storm. Your Expected Monetary Value for this option is $3.27/bottle; you could expect revenues of $39,240. The highest expected revenue given the “No Harvest” decision is $67,200 ($8.00/bottle), and the lowest is $24,000 ($2.00/bottle). Given Freemark Abbey’s aspirations to compete with Chateau Lafite-Rothschild products, however, it would be short-sighted to ignore the impact of a sub-standard product...
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...European Equity Research UK – Food & Drugs Retailers Madrid, October 6, 2010 TESCO Better International Should Help Re-rating RECOMMENDATION UPGRADED TO BUY FROM HOLD TARGET PRICE RAISED TO GBP490 FROM GBP450 BUY CURRENT PRICE: GBP430 TARGET PRICE: GBP490 Jaime Vázquez (+34) 91 289 5436 javazquez@gruposantander.com Borja Olcese (34) 91 289 1853 fdolcese@gruposantander.com We upgrade Tesco from Hold to Buy and raise our Dec-11 TP from GBp450 to GBp490. The two key highlights from the 1H11 results are the better than expected international LFLs in 2Q and the increased confidence in the US. Management provided more detail than usual at the presentation, which we believe denotes confidence. International LFL: 4.1% in 2Q after 0% in 1Q. We believe LFL is the key driver of CROI and not scale via openings. With better LFLs, the ‘maturing effect’ looks more credible to us. In the four most mature countries, the CROI of the mature assets (>4 years) is 220bp higher than the CROI of all assets. US to break even in 2012E/13E: the improvement in LFLs and other underlying metrics show that the key components of a profitable model are coming together. The worsening of overall losses in 1H from US$132mn to US$143mn is explained by the adverse leverage from new space and the acquisition of two supplier factories (US$10-15mn loss). This is a highly operationally geared business and improving LFLs is therefore key. UK: we agree with management that LFLs (Tesco’s and the industry’s)...
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...History of the Building: Founded by King Henry VI and built between 1448 and 1515, King’s College Chapel is considered as one of England’s greatest Medieval buildings.[i] Its reputation comes from the purity of its architecture: despite a long construction history, the chapel’s builders remained true to its initial plane creating a unified interior and robust exterior. King Henry VI was only 19 when he laid the first stone of the 'College roial of Oure Lady and Seynt Nicholas' in Cambridge on Passion Sunday, 1441. At the time this marsh town was still a port so, to make way for his college, Henry exercised a form of compulsory purchase in the centre of medieval Cambridge, levelling houses, shops, and lanes, and even a church between the river and the high street. It took three years to purchase and clear the land.[ii] In 1455 the Wars of the Roses began when Richard Duke of York challenged Henry's kingship. The subsequent story of the building of the Chapel and the Wars of the Roses are closely intermingled. For the first 11 years of the war, the construction continued under Henry's patronage, even though the annual grant of £1000 from the king's family estates, the Duchy of Lancaster, became irregular. Then, in 1461, Henry was taken prisoner and he was killed in 1471. The new king, Edward IV, passed on to the College a little of the money that Henry had intended for his Chapel, but very little building was done in the 22 years between Henry's imprisonment and the death of...
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...A, THE BRITISH ACADEMY SOMERSET HISTORICAL ESSAYS SOMERSET HISTORICAL ESSAYS By J. Armitage Robinson, D.D, Fellow of the British Academy Dean of Wells 1921 London: Published for the British Academy By Humphrey Milford, Oxford University Press Amen Corner, E.C. PRINTED IN ENGLAND AT THE OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS BY FREDERICK HALI, 76$ J 9 2/ PREFACE The writer of these pages makes no claim to be a historian, but he is concerned with the materials which go to the construction of true history. Occasionally he is led to revise the verdicts of historians on the ground of a renewed investigation of some isolated problem, or in the light of fuller information which has but lately become available. He hopes that he has done this with sufficient modesty. As a rule he has avoided direct controversy and has preferred a positive presentation of the revised position. He is well aware that when offered thus silently the corrections he desires to make are less likely to attract immediate attention than if he directly challenged fallacies which shelter under honoured names. But he writes from mere love of the subjects to which he has been drawn by the circumstances of his position and by local patriotism ; and he has experienced more than once the temporary blindness pro- duced by the dust of conflict. On the other hand he asks for criticism, ...
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...commercial heart of Lon-don. Many banks, offices and firms are concentrated the-re. The Tower and St. Paul's Cathedral are in the centre. The Tower is about 900 years old. Many years ago it was a royal residence, then a prison. Now it is a museum. St. Paul's Cathedral is very large and fine. It was completed in 1710. The famous English architect Christopher Wren planned and built St. Paul's Cathedral. If the City is the business part of London, Westminster is the centre of administration. We can see the Houses of Parliament there. It is a beautiful building with two towers and a very big clock called Big Ben. The Houses of Parliament stand in Parliament Square. Westminster Abbey is opposite the Houses of Parliament. Many great Englishmen were buried in Westminster Abbey. To the west of Westminster Abbey you can see Buckingham Pa-lace. It is a royal residence. The ceremony of the chan-ging of the guards which takes place in front of Bucking-ham Palace is of great interest to the tourists. Rich people live in the West End. The best and most expensive clubs, restaurants and theatres, beautiful houses and parks are there. The East End — the district of plants, factories, slums and docks — is for the working people. London is unlike any other city in the world. It has rather wide streets but low houses. It looks very grey because there is so much rain and fog there. Only buses and pillar-boxes are red. This city has never been planned and it has many parts which are different...
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...William Yeats: A Mystical Poet Zach King Mrs. Shealey Period 4- English 4 23 April 2012 Zach King Mrs. Shealey Period 4- English 4 23 April 2012 William Yeats: A Mystical Poet Thesis: William Yeats was a 20th century Irish poet who loved the magical things of life. I. Time period A. World War I B. Irish Revolution II. Life A. Early B. Later III. Works A. “Sailing to Byzantium” B. “An Irish Airman Foresees His Death” King 1 Zach King Mrs. Shealey Period 4- English 4 23 April 2012 William Yeats: A Mystical Poet Magic and the supernatural come together to meet in William Butler Yeats’ poetry. Yeats was one of the front-runners in poems that had to deal with the occult and unnatural. He is considered one of the greatest English writers. William Yeats was a 20th century Irish poet who loved the magical things of life. At the time of William Butler Yeats, the First World War broke out. At first, the war was caused by the creation of Germany that changed the balance of power in Europe. The people that were the cause of the first attacks of the war were the Continental Powers. The fighting in the war came mostly from trenches that were dug on the boarders. Throughout the war technology kept advancing and World War I was the first war that used airplanes in combat. Along with the new use of airplanes in the war, the first tanks were being invented and built by the people in France and Great Britain. The use of sending spies into enemies’...
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...will define gender politics for this essay. Jane Austen and Mary Shelley, writing at the beginning of the nineteenth-century, joined their female contemporaries in a growing generation of authoresses who forged careers in discipline of male authority. In this respect, they are inescapably engaging with gender politics. Margaret Kirkham comments that ‘this burgeoning of the female talent...was bound to have a profound effect upon any young woman beginning to write once it had occurred’, suggesting that, regardless of whether the female intended to represent female concerns within their work; a female, in becoming ‘an author, was, in itself, a feminist act’ (Kirkham 33). With the status of the authoress in mind whilst analysing Northanger Abbey and Frankenstein, this essay will focus how Austen and Shelley engage with gender politics through characterization and narrative form, and the female concerns they address, both implicitly and explicitly, throughout their texts. Austen predominately engages with gender politics through her protagonist Catherine. Catherine is presented as the unlikely heroine; ‘no one...would have supposed her born to be a heroine’ (Austen 3). Austen subverts the expectation of an heroine as Catherine possesses ‘feelings rather natural than heroic’, provoking a reading of Catherine as a satire of the passive, unnatural, gothic heroine. When Catherine embarks...
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...MAP 4 21.2 20 25 19.1 18 17 24 34 8.2 19.2 Swansea University Campus Visitors Car Park (Pay and Display) Key Buildings 1 2 2.1 3 4 5 6 7 8.1 8.2 8.3 9 9.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.2 24 31 32 32.1 33 34 36 40 Finance Building Singleton Abbey Singleton Abbey, Stable Block Keir Hardie Building James Callaghan Building Law Library Mosque Library and Information Centre Faraday Building Faraday Tower Talbot Building Wallace Building Margam Building Glyndwr Building ˆ Vivian Tower Sports Science Motion Laboratory Grove Building Grove Building Extension Richard Price Building Amy Dillwyn Building Haldane Building Fulton House Union House Energy Centre Digital Technium Taliesin Annexe Taliesin Arts Centre Egypt Centre Institute of Life Science 1 Llyr Building ˆ Institute of Life Science 2 / Centre for NanoHealth Porters’ Traffic Control Lodge 3 4 3 14 8.3 3 12, 33 11.2 4 11.2 11.2 11.2, 11.3 4 Hispanic Studies History Italian Law Mathematics Media and Communication Studies Medicine Physics Politics and International Relations Psychology Social Policy / Work Sports Science War and Society Singleton Hospital To Sports Village (pedestrian access) 36 Bus, Cycle & Pedestrian Access 33 P 11.3 11.2 16 P 14 P 21 21.3 Staff Car Parks Bus Stops Taxis P 27 26 Public Telephones Catering Facilities Baby Changing Facilities Services / Facilities 2.1 2 2 32 32 17, 18, 32 32 17, 18, 32 17 7 2 17 17 30 23 3.1 13 17 32.1 18 1...
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...from William Wordsworth and Samuel Taylor Coleridge Lyrical Ballads [London: J. & A. Arch, 1798] LINES WRITTEN A FEW MILES ABOVE TINTERN ABBEY, ON REVISITING THE BANKS OF THE WYE DURING A TOUR, July 13, 1798. ===== Five years have passed; five summers, with the length | | Of five long winters! and again I hear | | These waters, rolling from their mountain-springs | | With a sweet inland murmur.*—Once again | | Do I behold these steep and lofty cliffs, | | Which on a wild secluded scene impress | | Thoughts of more deep seclusion; and connect | | The landscape with the quiet of the sky. | | The day is come when I again repose | | Here, under this dark sycamore, and view | 10 | These plots of cottage-ground, these orchard-tufts, | | Which, at this season, with their unripe fruits, | | Among the woods and copses lose themselves, | | Nor, with their green and simple hue, disturb | | The wild green landscape. Once again I see | | These hedge-rows, hardly hedge-rows, little lines | | Of sportive wood run wild; these pastoral farms, | | Green to the very door; and wreathes of smoke | | Sent up, in silence, from among the trees, | | With some uncertain notice, as might seem, | 20 | Of vagrant dwellers in the houseless woods, | | Or of some hermit's cave, where by his fire | | The hermit sits alone. | | Though absent long, | | These forms of...
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...for and connection with all other elements in an environment. The opening and closing chapters of Edward Abbey’s autobiographical narrative, Desert Solitaire, parallel the Pueblo Emergence as they recount the experiences of a man who spends a summer in Arches National Park in Moab, Utah, and finds companionship in a non-human setting. Abbey’s odyssey from a separate world dominated by human civilization, through the metaphorical door of the Earth-worn arches, and into an ancient wilderness controlled by the collaboration of each composing element marks a “re-emergence” into an original state of existence. As Abbey migrates alone between the cold, dark material world that characterizes the human reality and the warm, colorful and illuminated wilderness that represents the original state of being, he finds companionship and solace in his re-discoveries; at the same time, Abbey is troubled by the same greed and vanity that caused humanity to stray far from the natural union in the first place, and his desire for a kindred “clan” obfuscates the true place were his loyalties lie. Abbey’s emergent journey begins in the dark...
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