...Will Greece survive the debt crisis once again? Problem Description Greece was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2010 due to the understatement of their deficit figure for years. They managed to survive this financial crisis with international bailout of 240 billion euros. Although bailouts did manage to provide some time to Greece to improve their financial position, but it came at huge expense. In order to improve the economy, it became necessary for Greece to reduce government spending and increase taxes. Consequences The international bailouts managed to delay Greece economic problem for few years but could not get rid of it completely. Moreover, the unemployment rate in Greece rose to above 25 percent during that time period. The bailouts money that supposed to improve Greece financial position was actually used to pay off debt. As a result, Greece economic situation never recovered and government still have to pay huge amount of debt to its creditors. Greece failure to reach an agreement with Europe to arrange money to pay off its debt could result in huge financial crisis and political changes in Greece as they may have to leave Eurozone and seek help from other countries. Some people believe that if Greece go bankrupt it would not have major economic impact on the Europe as it is just a small part of the euro economy and it would be better off to cut it loose. While, other argue that financial problem in Greece would have a major impact on the world and Europe specifically...
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...Background: As the consequence of the 2008 U.S. banking crisis, Europe was hit by one of the worst debt crisis. Starting from Greece in autumn 2009, the crisis spread to other European countries, especially Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal and forced European policy makers to take many actions to limit its consequences (BOG, 2014, p.42). While others European economies such as Spain, Portugal avoided the severe crisis by following advisory strategy like austerity, reducing public spending…, Greece situation did not improved. To help Greece improve its situation, the IMF and Eurozone governments sealed a deal for two bailouts in 2010 and 2012, totalling €240 billion. On July 5, 2015 the majority of Greek citizens voted to reject the Europe’s plan to bail out the country’s economy, which caused the fear about the potential exit from the European Union, Greece’s future and world economy as well. Despite that fact, Eurozone leaders still reached an agreement on a third bailout programme to save Greece from bankruptcy on July 13. Although Greece overcame the severe situation, there is no indicator that the crisis will stop. This essay will discuss Greek situation involving 3 main issues, which are mistakes leading to crisis, financial regulation and the role of banks, potential financial contagion and moral hazard. Discussion: 1. Mistakes leading to crisis: One of mistakes leading to crisis was supposed to involve economic statistical data fraud. According to a comprehensive...
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...1. -Do you think Greece should leave (or be kicked out) of the Eurozone? From the Greece point of view, it should stay in the Eurozone. Firstly, if it left the Eurozone and adopt the drachma, the country’s economy would suffer from weak currency, high inflation rate and high interest rate. This situation might continue for several years. The Greeks’ living standard then would become much worse than now. Secondly, Greece cannot benefit a lot from the weak currency. The current dominant industry in Greece is the tourism. Greece doesn’t have many natural and labor resources, and doesn’t have high-tech industries or large scale of manufactures or services industries which are strong enough to drive the economy. So, the weak currency cannot benefit the export. It might benefit the tourism, but the prosperity of the tourism is not strong enough to drag Greece from the deep debt mud. Finally, if the Greece exit Eurozone because of the veto of fiscal austerity, then the Greece government might continue the high welfare and high tax social security system. Although the fiscal austerity imposed by creditors of the Eurozone is a little over strict, the fiscal austerity is somehow right on the track. The high welfare system is a very heavy burden for the economy which not only cause a lot of government debt but also demotivate labor force. We can see the effect of the fiscal austerity during 2011~2014, the GDP increased from -8% to -0.2%, which means that the economy is becoming better. ...
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...27.12.2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis - Greece vs. Argentina Everyday more and more headlines are being filled with the debt crisis in Europe. But the center stage of the developments in Europe is being taken away by Greece. As Greece is being basically bankrupt, its expenses are way bigger than its obligations; it is also being supported by the EU because of the fear of consequences from its collapse. Analyzing a Bloomberg article, about two economists, and their view of the Greece debt crisis, I found out that they tried to compare the “Greece crisis” with Argentina’s default in 2001. They argued about two lessons concerning how and what could Greece possibly go through. According to the article “the first lesson has to do with the timing and size of the debt exchange”. As I figured out it is about building up the solvency for the debt in way to get access to capital markets. First of all in the article it says that “Greece and its private creditors have been invited to implement a bond exchange with a nominal discount, or haircut, of 50 percent of face value”. This voluntary agreement they also call the default. So in order to do the right thing, the Greece attempt to extend the debt relief beyond the 50% haircut agreed upon, should be assessed by someone. Also it is argued that the faster Greece starts contributing solutions instead of delaying their problem they will be able to begin normalizing the relationship with capital markets. The second lesson as said in the article...
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...The Political Economy of the Greek Debt Crisis: A Tale of Two Bailouts Silvia Ardagna and Francesco Caselli First draft: February 2012; Final version: January 2014 Abstract We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that these equilibria were likely not on the Pareto frontier, and sketch political-economy arguments for why collective policy making in the Euro area may lead to suboptimal outcomes. Most modern sovereign debt crises have been managed in Washington, DC, through the combined e¤orts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the US government. A distinctive feature of the crisis that has engulfed European sovereign-debt markets since the fall of 2009 has been that the IMF has played only a supporting (albeit important) role, while the management of the crisis has been driven by European institutions: the council of …nance ministers (ECOFIN), the European Council (EC, made up by all the heads of government of the European Union) and the European Central Bank (ECB). To the extent that the IMF is largely a technocratic institution (though of course not entirely immune from political in‡ uence) while ECOFIN and the EC are made up of politicians, one may expect the management of the crisis by the EC to be more a¤ected by electoral concerns. Furthermore, since there are 27 members to the EC, representing countries with potentially di¤erent interests, one...
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...REPORTS ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – 9 SESRIC REPORTS ON THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS European Debt Crisis and Impacts on Developing Countries STATISTICAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTRE FOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES (SESRIC) 1 SESRIC REPORTS ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS – 9 2011‐2 Issue EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS AND IMPACTS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES July – December 2011 SESRIC Reports on Global Financial Crisis : The financial crisis which started in July 2007, when investors lost their confidence in the mortgage‐ and asset‐based securities in the United States, has deepened during 2008‐2009 with a global reach and affecting a wide range of financial and economic activities and institutions in both developed and developing countries around the world. As the crisis deepened, the governments of major developed and developing countries as well as international financial regulators attempted to take some mitigation actions and coordinate efforts to contain the crisis. Given this state of affairs, the SESRIC has been preparing short reports since May 2009 with the aim of monitoring the developments related to the current global financial crisis at the global, regional and national levels. In particular, these reports focus on the impact of the crisis on the economies of ...
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...governments and departments which helped to reduce the bad effects of it. Not a single year has gone by in the past two centuries where there was not a financial crisis somewhere in the world (see figure 1). Arguably, the world witnessed its first international financial crisis in 1825. The opening up of Latin America after the overthrow of the Spanish empire led to the opening up of international trade between England and the Latin American republics. The result was massive capital flows from London to finance infrastructure, mining and government spending. But once the capital outflows impinged on the Bank of England’s (BoE) gold reserves, the policy rate was raised, leading to a banking crisis. A sudden stop of capital flow from London resulted in banking panics in the US and currency crashes across Latin America. Figure 1: The history of financial crises Indeed, the crisis in 1825 marked the first of seven clusters of sovereign defaults in the period 1800 to 2010 In the first cluster of defaults, which happened during 1824-1834, 13 Latin American countries defaulted. The following period (1835–1866) was relatively tranquil. But a lending boom developed in this period, which soon resulted in a new series of default episodes. The global crisis of 1873 started with the collapse of a property boom in Germany and Austria, then spread through the continent and affected the US as European investors dumped...
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...Greek debt crisis in 2009 occurred as a result of an understated financial deficit and extreme spending. The stagnation of the Greek economy and the demotion in their debt rating did not aid their financial situation. Greece was then faced with the possibility of sovereign debt default. The failure of Greece to pay their debts required bailouts from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the loan bailouts have eased short term liquidity problems, Greece still remained in financial turmoil which may even deteriorate. This research paper aims to explore the history behind the Greek debt crisis, the implications it has globally and on South Africa as well as the lessons that can be learnt from the crisis. Origins of the Greek debt crisis 2.1 Historical development: 2001-2008/09 In 2001 Greece became the twelfth member to join the Euro zone and was permitted to use the Euro (€) as its currency. Greece joined the Euro zone because of the benefits associated with being part of the Euro area. These benefits were essential to the economy of Greece who had a record of unpredictable inflation (Gibson, Hall & Tavlas, 2012). In addition, after Greece changed to the Euro they had the freedom to borrow money from foreign capital markets. During 2003-2007 government records showed Greece to be growing at 4% a year which gave investors’ confidence and made Greek bonds a popular investment. However, Greece falsified...
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...THE CRISIS IN GREECE subject: TAXES MAY 2013 TAXES THE CRISIS IN GREECE author: P.Fux Contents INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 3 GENESIS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS (USA) ................................................................. 3 THE TIPPING POINT ........................................................................................................... 3 IMPACT OF BANKING CRISIS ON EU - DEVELOPMENT OF FISCAL CRISIS .............. 4 WHAT HAPPENED IN GREECE............................................................................................. 4 DEBT IS HER OLDEST COMPANION ............................................................................... 5 CRISIS HAS SHOWN FIRST EFFECTS.............................................................................. 5 HOW MARKETS SAW GREECE ........................................................................................ 6 GREECE'S PROBLEMS SINCE THE CRISIS HAS ARISEN and BAILOUTS ..................... 7 The huge numbers of Greece's debt in pictures (2012) ...................................................... 9 A FEW WORDS ABOUT GREECE'S RATIOS ..................................................................... 10 THE GOVERNMENT SPENDINGS .................................................................................. 10 DEBT TO GDP...
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...CRISIS IN GREECE: STUDY OF THE FACTORS THAT LED TO THE CRISIS. A Research Paper: Under The Guidance of:Dr Somesh Kumar Mathur Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Pankaj Kumar Y8333 Sanchit Singhal Y8442 Sulabh Boudh Y8513 INTRODUCTION Greece is currently facing a very severe crisis, with expectations of a sovereign default as Greece confronts with the second highest budget deficit, as well as the second highest debt to GDP ratio in the EU. The paper uses insights from the literature to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in Greece. The crisis itself is very likely to be a result of: The gradual worsening of Greek macroeconomic Fundamentals over 2000-2009 to levels discrepant with other EU members. A shift in market expectations, from a scenario of credible commitment to future EU participation to a scenario of non-credible EU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. The pricing by markets of a (previously nonexistent) default risk that follows the withdrawal of an implicit guarantee on Greek debt by other EMU countries (mainly Germany). Interestingly, our account of the 3 factors sparking and escalating the crisis also helps explain why prices on Greek government bonds have not recovered but continued to plummet following the announcement of the EU/IMF rescue plan. Our analysis suggests that the involvement of an external institution like the...
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...EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS – ORIGIN, CONSEQUENCES AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS F RA N TI Š E K N E M E T H Abstract What is the European debt crisis? As the head of the Bank of England referred to it in October 2011, it is “the most serious financial crisis at least since the 1930s, if not ever.”1 In fact, the European debt crisis is the shorthand term for the region’s struggle to pay the debts it has built up in recent decades. Five of the region’s countries – Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain – have, to varying degrees, failed to generate enough economic growth to make their ability to pay back bondholders the guarantee it’s intended to be. Although these five were seen as being the countries in immediate danger of a possible default, the crisis has far-reaching consequences that extend beyond their borders to the world as a whole. Introduction The global economy has experienced slow growth since the U.S. financial crisis of 2008-2009, which has exposed the unsustainable fiscal policies of countries in Europe and around the globe. Greece, which spent heartily for years and failed to undertake fiscal reforms, was one of the first to feel the pinch of weaker growth. When growth slows, so do tax revenues – making high budget deficits unsustainable. Greece's economy has struggled since the country joined the euro in 2001. In 2004, it admitted its budget deficit was higher than allowed under rules of entry. By 2008 the government had narrowly passed a belt-tightening budget...
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...Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 2 2. THE CRISIS ........................................................................................................................... 2 3. THE WAY TO THE CRISIS...................................................................................................... 3 4. HOW DOES THE CRISIS AFFECT THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM? .................................... 4 5. WHAT IF GREECE LEFT THE EURO ZONE? ........................................................................... 5 6. IF GREECE HAS RECEIVED BILLIONS IN BAILOUTS, WHY IS THERE STILL A CRISIS? ............. 6 7. CONCLUSION....................................................................................................................... 7 8. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................... 8 1|Page Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis 1. Introduction The economy of Greece is the 45th largest in the world with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of $238 billion per annum. It is also the 51st largest in the world by purchasing power parity at $286 billion per annum. As of 2013, Greece is the thirteenth-largest economy in the 28-member European Union. Greece is classified as an advanced, high-income economy, and...
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...capitalvia.com G lobal Research Limited I MPACT of G REECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis G lobal Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP 68.6% UK 13% 112.6% Greece 12.5% 54.3% Spain 11.25% 65.8% Ireland 10.75% 114.6% Italy 5.3% 74.3% ...
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...that the 2009 government budget deficit and public debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 12.7% and 113%, respectively, far exceeding the EU's "stability and growth pact" provides for 3% and 60 percent limit. In view of the significant deterioration in the financial position of the Greek government, the world's three major credit rating agencies, Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's credit ratings have been lowered Greece's sovereign Greek debt crisis kicked off. With sovereign credit rating was lowered, the Greek government borrowing costs increase sharply. Greek government had to take austerity measures in Greece held another round of strike activity, economic development worse. Until February 2012, Greece, Germany and France and other countries still rely on rescue loans to survive. In addition to Greece, the financial situation of Portugal, Ireland and Spain and other countries also attracted attention from investors, European countries sovereign credit rating was lowered. Greece was just entering the euro zone. According to the provisions of some countries of the European Community signed in 1992 "Maastricht Treaty", the European Economic Monetary Union member states must meet two key standards, namely the budget deficit it can not exceed 3 percent of GDP, the debt ratio below 60% of gross domestic product. However, the accession of Greece just to see yourself far away from these two criteria. This alliance Greece and the euro zone is not a good thing. Especially in...
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...Introduction The financial crisis of 2007–08, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It threatened the collapse of large financial institutions, which was prevented by the bailout of banks by national governments, but stock markets still dropped worldwide. In many areas, the housing market also suffered, resulting in evictions, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment. The crisis played a significant role in the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in trillions of U.S. dollars, and a downturn in economic activity leading to the 2008–2012 global recession and contributing to the European sovereign-debt crisis. The active phase of the crisis, which manifested as a liquidity crisis, can be dated from August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas terminated withdrawals from three hedge funds citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity". Many causes for the financial crisis have been suggested, with varying weight assigned by experts.The U.S. Senate's Levin–Coburn Report concluded that the crisis was the result of "high risk, complex financial products; undisclosed conflicts of interest; the failure of regulators, the credit rating agencies, and the market itself to rein in the excesses of Wall Street." The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded that the financial crisis was avoidable and was caused by "widespread failures...
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