...analysis of the data - GDP growth: recessions and cycles. GDP Growth: Recessions and Cycles Figure 1 - US Real GDP 1930 – 2014 with 2009 as the Base Year Source: (Shiller, 2015); (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2015) Figure 1 above shows the real Gross Domestic product (GDP) of the United States for the years 1930 to 2014. Real GDP is essential and important as it shows the general soundness of the economy. Thus, when real GDP is high it means other macroeconomic factors such as employment and economic growth are positive and vice versa. This is because real GDP is substantially correlated to these macroeconomic factors. Therefore, the chart above shows that America’s GDP has been growing steadily over the years. This consistent growth has seen to it that America’s real GDP hit a high of 16.16 trillion U.S. dollars up from a low of around 1.06 trillion U.S. dollars in 1930. It is also apparent that the steady growth in the real GDP has led to many significant improvements in the economy and standards of living. Thus, it is evident that the standards of living and other macroeconomic factors are better now than in the mid nineteen hundreds (OpenStax College, 2014). Further, statistical and economic analysis shows that the real GDP of America has an average median and mean of approximately 6.34 and 7.20 trillion dollars respectively (Shiller, 2015). This is caused by the various cyclical changes in the economy. Despite the steady growth in real GDP the U.S. economy...
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...The Industry: * Dominated by local players(90% of tires) * In 2006, 40 competitors with production volume 70 million tires * 4 local players alone accounted 75% of sales * Expansion of automobile mkt, production of vehicle doubled b/w 1994-2004 * Growth of 2 wheelers & 3 wheelers was high because of city dwellers * Resulting in growth in no. of tires sold 4.5 % in 2004 and 5% in 2005 Two main tire technologies * Diagonal or cross ply (created in 1950) * Easily recognised with its very high profile * In contrast, represented 65% of tire sales (value?) in India * Because of factors specific to India (emerging countries) * Variable quality of road, tendency to overload vehicles * Competitive price of Cross-ply * Long life expectancy, double of radial * Great capacity of absorption on rough terrain * But poor road holding at high speed * Strong risks of coming off the rim at high torsion and stress * Radial (Created in 1965 by Michelin) * Flat but wider * Established itself in developed countries with * Increased performance * Better adhesion * Greater resistance to torsion and friction * Sales growing slowly in India but with improvements in roads and car performance * Technological improvements were being made to cars in recent years * In 2006, radial represented 85% of car tire sales by volume (28% in 1995) * Radial...
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...Fiscal Policy for Stabilization and Growth Sessions 11 & 12 Reading: Chapter 5 What is Demand Management? • Demand-constrained economy: – Increase aggregate demand to tackle recession/depression • Supply-constrained economy: – Manage demand to control demand-pull inflation 2 Policy focus: Demand-constrained Economy Aggregate demand K Potential output 3 Policy focus: Supply-constrained Economy Aggregate demand K Potential output Also: Long term – increase K to expand potential output 4 Recession/Depression • Recession: – Rule of thumb: two consecutive quarters of falling GDP • Depression: – “Severe” recession – no widely accepted definition: • Decline in real GDP that exceeds 10%, or one that lasts more than three years • Other alternative indicators: bursting of asset, credit bubble, fall in general price level 5 Examples of Depression (Using 10% GDP fall rule) 6 Economic Policy • Two main policy instruments to influence aggregate demand (C + I + G + X - M): – Fiscal Policy: • Through Government expenditure and revenue – Monetary policy: • Through Money supply and interest rates 7 Basic Logic of Demand Management (to ↑ demand) • Fiscal Policy: –↑G – ↓ income taxes to ↑ C – (Also: • ↑ tariff duties to reduce M • Provide incentives to ↑ X) • Monetary Policy: – ↓ rate of interest to ↑ C; ↑ I 8 Fiscal Policy and Demand Management in India 9 (see: http://indiabudget.nic.in) • • •...
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...Research Brief N AT I O N A L D E F E N S E R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U TE China and India The Asian Giants Are Heading Down Different Demographic Paths RAND ReseARch AReAs ChiLDREN AND FAMiLiES EDUCAtiON AND thE ARtS ENERgy AND ENviRONMENt hEALth AND hEALth CARE iNFRAStRUCtURE AND tRANSPORtAtiON iNtERNAtiONAL AFFAiRS LAW AND BUSiNESS NAtiONAL SECURity POPULAtiON AND AgiNg PUBLiC SAFEty SCiENCE AND tEChNOLOgy tERRORiSM AND hOMELAND SECURity C hina and India, the world’s most populous nations, have much in common: Each has more than 1 billion residents; each has sustained an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the past decade that is among the world’s highest—9 percent for China and 7 percent for India; and each has been among the world’s most successful in weathering the storm of the recent global recession. Yet a closer look reveals stark demographic contrasts between the two nations that will become more pronounced in the coming decades. These differences hold implications for China’s and India’s relative economic prospects and point to sharply different challenges ahead for each nation to sustain and build on recent economic growth. Abstract Demographic contrasts between china and India will become more pronounced in the coming decades, and these differences hold implications for the countries’ relative economic prospects. china’s population is larger than India’s, but India’s population is expected to surpass china’s by 2025. chi...
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...Research Brief N AT I O N A L D E F E N S E R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U TE China and India The Asian Giants Are Heading Down Different Demographic Paths RAND ReseARch AReAs ChiLDREN AND FAMiLiES EDUCAtiON AND thE ARtS ENERgy AND ENviRONMENt hEALth AND hEALth CARE iNFRAStRUCtURE AND tRANSPORtAtiON iNtERNAtiONAL AFFAiRS LAW AND BUSiNESS NAtiONAL SECURity POPULAtiON AND AgiNg PUBLiC SAFEty SCiENCE AND tEChNOLOgy tERRORiSM AND hOMELAND SECURity C hina and India, the world’s most populous nations, have much in common: Each has more than 1 billion residents; each has sustained an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the past decade that is among the world’s highest—9 percent for China and 7 percent for India; and each has been among the world’s most successful in weathering the storm of the recent global recession. Yet a closer look reveals stark demographic contrasts between the two nations that will become more pronounced in the coming decades. These differences hold implications for China’s and India’s relative economic prospects and point to sharply different challenges ahead for each nation to sustain and build on recent economic growth. Abstract Demographic contrasts between china and India will become more pronounced in the coming decades, and these differences hold implications for the countries’ relative economic prospects. china’s population is larger than India’s, but India’s population is expected to surpass china’s by 2025. chi...
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...from these NBFIs, another part of Indian financial system consists of a large number of privately owned, decentralized, and relatively small-sized financial intermediaries. Most work in different, miniscule niches and make the market more broad-based and competitive. While some of them restrict themselves to fund-based business, many others provide financial services of various types. The entities of the former type are termed as "non-bank financial companies (nbfcs)". A robust banking and financial sector is critical for activating the economy and facilitating higher economic growth. Financial intermediaries like NBFCs have a definite and very important role in the financial sector, particularly in a developing economy like India. They are a vital link in the system. They have access to larger markets and provide financing for almost all activities. After the proliferation phase of 1980s and early 90s, the NBFCs witnessed consolidation and now the number of NBFCs eligible to accept deposits is around 600, down from 40000 in early 1990s. The number of asset financing NBFCs would be even lower, around 350, the rest are investment and loan...
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... ons for Indian Car Manufacturers Contents Executive Summary Introduction Overview Brazil Russia India China Conclusion Appendix Sources Contacts 4 6 7 10 15 19 24 29 31 33 34 Executive Summary The BRIC block has emerged as the economic power house of growth for the automotive industry through the last decade. What started as an exploration of new/extra markets for car sales in the early 90s has gone on to become the mainstream market of the new millennium. Supported by attractive macro-economic factors such as growing economic activity, urbanization, rising household incomes, developing credit markets and very low car density, the BRIC countries currently make up for the top 7 automotive markets globally. The BRIC block has been strongly growing for over 10 years; with 3 of 4 BRIC economies surging ahead even during the 2008 economic crisis. So that prompts us to ask how the dynamics have transformed over the years. What were the major drivers of growth in car sales in the last decade and into the future? Is the current slowdown a blip or is it here to stay? More importantly, what does the growth dynamics in China, Brazil and Russia mean to the Indian automotive market? We offer our perspective on the impact of macroeconomic factors on car sales in the BRIC block between 2001 and 2011. Below are the key findings of our analysis: 1. Car sales in Brazil, Russia, India and China grew at a CAGR of 8.8%, 5.7%, 14.5% and 34.3% respectively as against a globalcar sales average...
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... | Industry Overview: i. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world to be followed by China and Japan. India is emerging as world's largest trading centre of this commodity with a target of US$ 16 bn. set for 2010. ii. Placed against targets to achieve 65 percent of the international market by 2010, India’s gem and jewellery industry has registered an impressive 21.33 percent growth in exports iii. India dominates the world’s cut and polished diamonds (CPD) market. In value terms, the country accounts for approximately 55 percent of global polished diamond market and nearly 9 percent of the jewellery market. According to GJEPC's provisional estimate, cut and polished diamonds registered 19.06 percent growth in exports at US$ 7.11 mn. iv. India accounts for 80-85 per cent of the world’s CPD market in volume terms, 55-60 per cent in value terms and about 90 per cent in unit terms. Other major players in the global CPD market are Belgium and Israel. v. Surat contributes 90 percent of India's total diamonds exports. vi. India's domestic branded jewellery market is estimated at US $150 bn. vii. There are 13 bullion importing banks in India. viii. India's Gem and Jewellery Exports Promotion Council (GJEPC) is aiming at turning India into an International Diamond Trading Centre. ix. Since India already enjoys 80-85 per cent of the world CPD market, scope for further growth in diamond exports is limited. Hence, if India's gems...
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...Company Analysis: Monte Carlo Overview of Indian Economy According to National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) the fourth largest economy of the world, i.e. India is expected a growth rate of 5.1% to 5.5% in real GDP in 2015. Moreover Technopak Report 2014 says, textile and apparel industry has been a major contributor to India’s GDP from last two decades, providing employment to more than 45M people. This sector has also contributed towards the growth of industrial production and foreign exchange through exports. Textile and Apparel Industry In developing countries like India, higher annual GDP growth corresponds to increase in purchasing power of the consumers, favouring the growth in textile and apparel industry. But in developed countries USA, Japan and countries of European Union slower annual GDP growth corresponds to reducing the demand for textile and apparel. Cheap labour in developing countries accounts well for their production advantage. The size if Indian textile and apparel industry has increased substantially from US $70 billion in 2006 to US $90 billion in 2013. (Source: Technopak Report 2014) Overview Monte Carlo was launched in 1984 as an exclusive woollen brand, since then it has been a leading apparel brand in India in terms of revenue. Monte Carlo has successfully established as a Superbrand in each section consumers, viz. Men, Women and Kids. It primarily caters to premium and mid-premium segments among the above 3 consumer sections...
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...Globlization Tara Heyano WGU GLT1 Globlization India gained its independence from English rule in 1947 after more than 200 years of colonial rule. The Chines Communist gained control of mainland China in 1949 after a prolonged civil war, in 1949 just after these two events took place China and India were some of the poorest nation on the planet. Most of the population of these countries were considered rural dwelling 85% of China’s population and 90 % of India’s population lived in the country. The average household income for both countries was about sixty dollars. Basic standards of living were virtually nonexistent. Outbreaks of disease and famine took a great toll on the weakest and most susceptible of the people. Both countries faced enormous challenges to building a stable economy and nation. Even those these two nations gained their independence after centuries of domination by colonial powers and resistance to it these nations took profoundly different paths in developing there new governments. India developed after long deliberations developed the worlds largest democracy. However India’s republic faces substantial trials in this age of globalization. In contrast to this on 10/1/1949 Chairman Zedong leader of the Chines Communist Party (CCP) declared the Chinese were now masters of their own fate, he promised the CCPs main objective would be to overcome the toll the civil war had taken on the nation and it would build a China that was modern economically...
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...factors influencing the sector: 1. Infrastructure/ GDP: Automobiles sales revenue follows economic cycles very closely. This is especially true in the case of sales of HCVs. Availability of good roads is an important determinant for passenger vehicle demand. 2. Affordability: Movement in income and interest rates determine the affordability of new motor vehicles. The ready availability of cheap loans is an important factor driving demand. Disposable income in the rural agriculture sector is increasing. 3. Auto Financing: There are more than 35 financers in the market today, with the State Bank of India being the leader. Easy availability of finance has been one of the most important growth drivers for the auto industry since 2003. 4. Demographics: It is evident that high population of India has been one of the major reasons for large size of automobile industry in India. Factors that may be augment demand include rising population and an increasing proportion of young persons in the population that will be more inclined to use and replace cars. The Indian middle class is growing and is estimated to grow from 50 million currently to 550 million by 2025. 5. Cost of ownership: i. Petrol prices: The price of oil affects the driving habits of consumers and the type of car they buy. During periods of high fuel cost as experienced in 2007 and the first half of 2008, demand for large cars declined in favour of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. The changing patterns...
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...India’s Emerging Wine Industry | December 21: While India doesn’t have the most ideal climate for growing wine grapes, its local industry which is still at a nascent stage, is growing at a rate that more established countries can only envy, writes Subhash Arora looking at what’s driving the growth and how the industry is responding. | After a gap of about three years when the global meltdown and the Mumbai terrorist attack in November 2008 brought the Indian wine industry to its knees, things are looking up once again, with the annual growth of about 25% though not every producer is out of woods.The industry which was barely 150,000-200,000 case strong at the turn of the millennium was growing at the rate of 25-30% for the previous 5 years when the downfall occurred in 2008 after it had reached a peak of 1.5 million cases including about 250,000 cases of imported wines. 2008-2011 saw a slide in the domestic wine production and consumption. It flirted with the peak in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) and a growth of 20-25% is expected to continue during the next 5 years.Indian market at a glanceA population of 1.13 billion with over half under 35 years, offers a huge opportunity for wine producers. About 300 million belong to the middle class with 30 million as potential wine drinkers; currently there are less than 2 million. India has been traditionally a liquor guzzling country with over 400 million cases consumed annually. Even the relatively new beverage beer has created 160 million-case...
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...AGING Working Paper Series Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth David E. Bloom January 2011 PGDA Working Paper No. 65 http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06. 1 Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth1 David E. Bloom Harvard School of Public Health January 2011 Keywords: Age structure China-India comparison Conditional convergence Demographic dividend Demographic transition Economic growth Economic growth in India Policy reform Population health Population of India Abstract Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age people can be productively employed, India’s economic growth stands to accelerate. Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can potentiate India’s realization of...
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...model is that it divides the life of a product in several stages with different characteristics based on sales level and growth of the product: introduction; growth; maturity; decline. This allows the adoption of different strategies according to the consumer behaviour and considering the sales of the product. The PLC model is not capable in predicting the duration of the phases since that depends on the product and industry (i.e. PLC of a smartphone is much smaller than the PLC of a shampoo). In addition, a sudden drop of sales does not really result in new product cycle since this change can be provoked by external events or factors like changes in market or consumer preferences or the introduction of substitutes by the competition can turn planning based on a product life cycle prediction totally useless. There is little or no guarantee that a product will even make it out of the introduction stage, or it may move through the cycle faster or slower than anticipated. The PLC can also prove useful to predict on how the competition will react towards sales changes and then being able to define countermeasures. How did Lifebuoy strategies in the early stages of its PLC enabled the brand to become a leader? Since inception in late 19th century, Lifebuoy, was good citizen brand of India, reaching millions of customers from the rural areas...
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...the early 1990s, bank intermediation remains the dominant feature. The market capitalization as a percentage of GDP in India is $ 1.03 trillion, which is about 90% of the GDP, while countries like Hong Kong (525% of GDP), Singapore (221%) are way ahead. India s Bond market capitalization also remains low at 50 % (McKinsey report) with the corporate bond market way behind the government debt market. The bank deposits account for 52% of the GDP, and about three fourth of the total assets of the financial system. (Paper by Wharton publications on financial systems in India, 2007). The Non Banking sector, including the Mutual funds, Non Banking Financial Companies, Insurance companies and Other Financial institutions account for over 30% of the Financial Sector’s assets. This adds up to about 26 lakh crore in assets (2008-09-FSAP). According to The Financial Development index-2008, India scores better in Financial intermediation through Non-Banks ranking 16th, compared to a rank of 50th in terms of Banks. India ranks better in terms of capital access comparable to Japan, in spite of much lower assets/GDP comparatively. Classification of Financial institutions The Financial institutions in India can be broadly classified into the categories as listed in the representation below: The Distribution of Assets among the various Financial institutions in India The major share in the assets is that of the Commercial banks and then closely followed by NBFC, and Mutual funds which...
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