Decision Analysis Case Study

FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY
Khurram Masood’s section

HLCC Consulting Inc.
Julian Hong
Nicolas Liao
Alan Chen
Cheng-Chieh Chao

Decision Basis
Information
Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness, immigration law

Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives
Harvest now or later
Use detector or not
Buy spores or not
Sell in bottle or bulk

Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences
Prefers more money than less
Cares about reputation

Uncertainties
Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level

Decision Diagram
Detector/
No Detector

Rain/
No Rain

Detector
Prediction
Acidity Level
Harvest/
Not harvest

Spores/
No Spores

Botrytise/
Thin wine
Sugar Level

Immigration Law
Passed/Failed

Bottle/
Not Bottle
Value $

Decision Tree

Harvest Now
Immigration Law
Passed
Rain

Immigration Law
Failed
Immigration Law
Passed

Buy Spores

No Rain
Immigration Law
Failed

Mold Develops
Mold Develops
Low
Acidity
>= 25%
Normal
Sugar
Acidity
< 25%
Sugar
Low
Acidity
>= 25%
Sugar
< 25%
Sugar
Mold Develops
Sell Wine In Bulk
No Mold
Sell Wine Case
Mold Develops
Sell Wine In Bulk
No Mold
Sell Wine Case
Low
Acidity
>= 25%
Normal
Sugar
Acidity
< 25%
Sugar
Low
Acidity
>= 25%
Normal
Sugar
Acidity
< 25%
Sugar
Normal
Acidity

Do Not Rent
Weather Detector
Immigration Law
Passed

Harvest Later
Rain

Immigration Law
Failed

Do Not
Buy Spores

Immigration Law
Passed
No Rain
Immigration Law
Failed

Harvest Now
Immigration Law
Passed
Rain

Immigration Law
Passed

Buy Spores

Says
Rain

Immigration Law
Failed

Mold Develops
Mold Develops
Low
Acidity
Normal
Acidity

No Rain
Immigration Law
Failed

Low
Acidity

>= 25%
Sugar
< 25%
Sugar

>= 25%