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金融世界

对冲基金与
国际金融市场风险
东方证券研发总部

田树华

人们习惯根据基金的管理方式把基金分为共

真正会导致全球金融危机的则是对冲基金本身。

同基金 ( mut ual fund) 和单位信托基金 。
如果按基

一旦对冲基金本身发生了问题, 无异于国际金融

金投资人对保本和增值目标追求的不同, 则可以
把基金分为对冲基金 ( hedg e fund) 和套利基金

市场发生了核泄漏事件 , 其患无穷 。长期资本管
理公司事件弄得国际金融界巨头们手忙脚乱就是

( ar bit ra g e f und) 。 前者投资目的是在保本基础

明证 。

上 , 获得豪利 , 以期暴富 ; 后者则是在保本基础上

对冲基金既有它存在的必然性 , 又有它扰乱

微利经营, 追求积少成多的效果 。可以这么说 , 大
多数中国人是通过这次金融危机才认识对冲基金

市场正常秩序的一面。 任何一个国家金融市场的
发展都无法回避对冲基金这个问题 。有效地对对

的 。其实, 对冲基金在西方国家早就有之 。目前,

冲基金加以监管, 是一国金融市场乃至全球金融

美国已经有 4000 多家对冲基金 , 并且专门出版了
对冲基金! 杂志 。人们最近从新闻媒介中看到的

市场安全运行的保证。

索罗斯的量子基金和长期资本管理公司 ( L T CM )
的基金 , 就是典型的对冲基金。

一、
对冲基金产生的原因

对冲基金一度被认为是此次东南亚金融危机
的罪魁祸首 。从经济学角度看 , 对冲基金只是利

人们一直谈论投资基金有这样那样的好处。

用某些国家经济体系的漏洞, 钻了一点空子。 即

比如证券投资基金 , 人们普遍认为它有如下好处 :

使没有对冲基金 , 这些国家同样会陷入危机。 而

∀ 分散风险; # 专业性投资管理; ∃ 可以大量减免

本文为东方证券研发总部对冲基金课题的阶段性研究成果。
本文写作过程中与梁宇峰博士讨论过, 在此表示感谢。

文章中的不足之处由本人承担。

经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

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金融世界

管理个人的股票投资组合所需的文件工作及需保
存充足记录的繁琐事务; %有利于对境外投资 ; &
收益可观。
但是, 经济学家及国内外基金运作经验表明:
普通基金运作存在许多难以克服的缺点。 比如证
券投资基金 。由于证券投资基金中不存在风险分
层 , 而信息不对称的委托代理关系却始终存在 , 并
且相对于投资者直接持有公司股票的委托代理链
增加了 , 因而 , 基金持有人面临的代理人的机会主
义行为倾向和道德风险反而增加了。
一般的投资基金是非固定收益的契约安排 。
基金持有人的收益一方面取决于 基金公司的分
红 , 另一方面取决于在二级市场上买卖的基金差
价收益 。分红来自于基金公司的投资收益 , 基金
管理人的投资收益来源于企业的经营水平和它在
二级市场上的资本投资收益。 显然, 基金持有人
的投资收益直接取决于基金管理人的经营能力 。
这样, 由于基金收益的非固定契约性质, 当企业经
营效率低下 , 公司红利减少 , 公司股票在二级市场
不振, 基金管理公司的总收益就会急剧下降, 企业
经营风险就会直接转嫁到基金持有人 。
市场经济的发展 , 使得发达国家有可观收入
的中产阶级 ( 或称白领阶层 ) 队伍日益扩大 。在通
货膨胀和利率、
汇率波动加剧的情况下, 如何才能
使自己的余钱获得保值或增值 , 已经成了他们日
益关注的问题 。 人们一开始投资 于一般投资基
金 , 后来渐渐发现一般投资基金存在上述种种缺
点 , 无法满足自己的投资需要, 这时一种新的基金
形式对冲基金便应运而生了。

二、
运作机理与特点

状态。其具体的操作方法是, 充分运
用相关参数, 借助大型计算机模拟系
统计算出最后的均衡点。然后, 分析
市场与均衡状态的偏离情况。
如果市
场高于均衡水平, 则卖空; 反之, 则买
空。
( 一) 对冲基金的运作机理
1. 对冲基金获取对冲利润的条件
对冲基金的操作理念是 , 自由市场经济下, 金
融市场总是收敛于均衡状态 , 即不管市场是泡沫
经济还是收缩经济 , 最后都会向均衡状态运动。
在这个思想的指导下, 对冲操作的要点则是如何
预测市场的均衡点 。具体做法是, 充分运用几乎
所有的相关参数, 借助人型计算机系统模拟计算
出最后的均衡点。 然后 , 分析市场是处于高于均
衡水平状态, 还是低于均衡水平状态。 如果市场
高于均衡水平 , 则卖空; 如果市场低于均衡水平则
买空 。
按照一般的对冲理论, 似乎在自由市场经济
状态下, 只要能准确预测到市场的均衡水平 , 总能
获得利润 , 事实情况是, 世界上几乎没有完全自由
的市场经济 。 而即使存在近似的自由市场经济 ,
也可能是发散性的 , 即随时间推移愈来愈偏离均
衡水平的情况 。比如, 南北经济发展水平的差距
正在扩大 , 而不是趋同。 因此 , 对冲操作依据的所
谓均衡理论是值得怀疑的。 事实上也是如此 。
比如 , 1998 年 7、8 月份, 索罗斯的量子基金
在汇市沽空港元, 在股市沽空恒生指数 。香港当
局为了保卫联系汇率制 , 必然提高银行之间同业
拆借利率 , 使股市受到重挫。 因此 , 只要香港金融
市场按一般做法行动, 则量子基金可以在股市、


对冲基金的操作理念是, 自由市
场经济下, 金融市场总是收敛于均衡
34

市双丰收 ; 或者即使汇市稳定住了 , 在股市也能大
赚特赚。
可是, 此次港府的做法一反常态 。
港府一
方面大量吸纳港元 , 另一方面禁止本地金融机构
经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

金融世界

向投资基金办理拆借业务 。在对冲的期指合约期
内只要股市 、
汇市均保持相对稳定, 不按对冲基金

分为 : ∀ 运用短期利率期货合同进行对冲, # 运用
长期利率期货合同对冲 。当现货市场利率与远期

期望的规律变化 , 则对冲业务必亏无疑。 它除了

利率变化不一致时 , 对冲可以获利 。

要支付期货买卖的保证金外, 还要支付拆借资金

# 运用股票指数远期合约进行对冲 。持有股

的利息 , 主要损失则是市场价格变化的市场风险
损失。

权资产组合的人可以运用股票指数远期合约 ( 如
F ISE100) 来规避市场风险, 因而对冲基金经理可

如果确实存在完全自由市场经济 , 而且对冲

以运用这一业务来赚取利润 。在这一业务中 , 对

操作的理论也是成立的。 对冲操作获取利润也要
具备一定的条件 。其一, 金融市场存在波动。 其

冲基金经理必须融通股票来操纵市场, 使其按有
利于自己的规律变动 。 运用此法可以局部对冲 ,

二 , 能够运用已有资产向金融机构融资或者本身

也可以全部对冲。

资金规模很大。 因为对冲基金操作时 , 要交纳一

∃ 运用货币期货合约对冲。使用货币远期合

定的保证金和一定的融资利息 。如果交易规模不
大 , 就难以赚取大额利润。 另外 , 购入的证券种类

约可以防范汇率变动的风险 。因而对冲基金经理
也可以利用远期货币合约来盈利, 关键是要具有

和数量必须能够反映大市 , 资金 少了就难于搭

大量的货币资金来使汇率按符合自己利益的规律

配 。其三, 资金要保持稳定 , 不能经常出入, 否则
基金经理难以操作。 其四 , 金融市场上必须具有

变动 。
第二阶段 , 使用期权对冲。又分为 ∀ 运用个

可以交易的金融衍生工具 ( 产品 ) 。如果没有足够

别股票期权合约对冲; # 运用股票指数期权合约

的交易对象 , 对冲基金也无法操作。 比如 , 对冲操

进行对冲 ; ∃ 运用长期利率期权合约进行对冲。

作一般要与期指 、
认股权, 其它期货合约集合起来
做 , 才能顺利运作 。如果没有期指交易, 则无法平
仓 , 也就不能获利 。
2. 对冲业务运作手段的发展过程

第三阶段 , 利用掉期业务对冲 。
第四阶段 , 运用资产组合保险业务 ( po rt fo lio insurance) 进行对冲 。这种对冲包括: 购买现有资
产组合的买入期权 ; 从投资银行或保险公司购买

对 冲业务 分为避 险方 ( hedger) 和投机 方
( s peculat or) , 索罗斯的量子基金和 L T CM 基金

保单 。
第五阶段 , 多种对冲手段混合运用。 90 年代

在对冲业务中就是投机方的角色。他们购买对冲

以来 , 对冲基金的操作手段又有了进一步的发

业务的目的是为了盈利, 而不是为了避险 。对冲
业务既可以运用期货 ( fut ur es) 、
期权 ( o p t ions) ,

展。 主要特点是: 利用股市 、汇市联动的必然联
系, 同时在股市 、
汇市对冲操作。

又可以使用掉期 ( sw a p s) 手段进行。 最近的对冲

3. 对冲运作机理的理论分析

业务则进入到运用组合资产保险 ( port f olio in

下面 , 我们以股市期指对冲为例说明对冲基

surance) 来对冲 。对冲业务的发展大概经历了下
列几个过程 。

金的一般操作机理 。
一般情况下, 对冲基金经理主要利用股票市

第一阶段, 运用期货对冲盈利。 期货合同可

场上的认股权证和期指这两种高风险投资工具进

以用来防止利率风险 ( 长期 、 ) 、
短期 市场风险和汇
率风险 。因而对冲基金经营者常常利用期货业务

行对冲。 其投资操作是 , 买进一揽子能够反映大
市走势的认股权证 , 同时卖出期指 , 并存放近

从利率变化 、市场价格变化及汇率变化中得到好

20% 的现金生息。 由于期指走势和股票指数走势

处 。具体可以分为:

是同步的 , 因此走势图为直线 : 而认股权证是一种

∀ 使用利率期货对冲 。这种对冲业务又可以
经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

杠杆投资工具 , 本身具有放大作用 , 因此它的走势
35

金融世界

图是非直线的, 呈弧线状 ( 如图 1) 。 当股市呈牛
市 , 指数上升时, 所持认股证嫌的利润大于售出的

见市场趋势。

期指损失; 而当股市呈熊市 , 指数下降时 , 售出的

对冲基金的基本特点有三: 私募、
封闭式合伙和充分利用杠杆原理。

此相对应, 在操作上, 对冲基金巧妙
利用借贷和抵押, 投资于多种类型及
风险的资产, 并同时做空做多。

期指所嫌的利润大于持有认股权证的损失 。从对
冲的运作图可以看出 , 不论股市上升或下降, 结果
都有嫌头。 其利润公式如下。
股市上升时 , 利润为: AC- AB= CB,
股市下跌时利润为: F D- ED= F E 。
认股证
回报

期指
C
G
90

D
E

( 二) 对冲基金的特点

B
A
1 00

11 0

指数

1. 对冲基金是私募基金
对冲基金和在美国更为流行 的共同基金一

F

图1

对冲运作图

在股市呈现牛市或熊市局面的一段时期内 ,
由于股市处于均衡状态, 这时这种对冲操作就难
有收获 ( 表现在图中的 G 点 ) 。但是, 投资组合中

样, 都是由一批投资者出资, 交由一个专门从事资
金运作的基金管理公司来管理, 并按照出资份额
获取红利的组织机构。 与共同基金不同的是 , 对
冲基金是私人募集的, 因此投资约束少得多 , 比如

所存放的现金可以生息, 售出的期指也有利息 。

可以卖空 , 可以大量投资风险较大的资产, 可以大

不过这两项利息相对整个基金资 产来说是很少

量使用衍生金融工具。
对冲基金一般不上市交易。国际知名股票交

的。
上述操作过程具体来说就是对冲基金管理人

易所的有些规定和限制增加了对冲基金上市的技

首先选定某类行情看涨的行业 , 买进该行业中看

术难度。 例如 , 规定基金投资于一家公司的最大

好的几只优质股 , 同时以一定比例卖出该行业中

比例 ( 在合资企业中不得超过 35% ) 。
对冲基金在
一个项目中投资的最大比例也有限制, 以保证通

较差的几只劣质股。 如此组合的结果是, 如该行
业表现良好 , 优质股涨幅必超过其它同行业的股
票 , 买入优质股的收益将大于卖空劣质股而产生
的损失 ; 如果预期错误 , 此行业股票不涨反跌 , 那
么较差公司的股票跌幅必大于优质股 , 则卖空盘

过投资多样化进行风险分散 。有些股票交易所要
求投资基金管理公司具有良好的业绩记录, 其它
交易所则认可投资基金管理公司基金经理的经
验。

口所获利润必高于买入优质股下跌造成的损失 。

另外 , 非上市基金效率一般会更高 , 并且避免

此种机理下 , 对冲基金赚钱与否 , 关键是认股权证

了评价投资时计算市值的麻烦 。 由于流动性较
低, 基金的报价不一定反映投资本身的价值 。对

变动与指数变动不一致, 股市处于不均衡状态 。
一旦股市处于稳定状态, 对冲基金则一无所获 , 净
亏手续费和利息费用 。如果股指收益与认股权证
收益变动严格线性, 则对冲基金收益被锁定, 如果
该固定收益小于手续费, 则同样亏损无疑 。因而,

那些投资者为数不多, 且本身具有专业知识 , 无意
在二级市场上活跃交易的人而言, 不上市更为合
适。
因此 , 对冲基金一般是私募而非公募, 是不上

对冲基金操作的要点是使股市以 自己希望的模

市流通交易的 。对冲基金以私募方式征得, 所以

式 , 在期指合约期内向均衡方面变动 。这就要求

其投资不受西方国家有关证券法对共同基金那样
的限制, 其既可以投资于上市公司 , 也可以不投资

对冲操作必须能够控制市场趋势, 或能有效的预
36

经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

金融世界

于上市公司 , 也没有每家企业的投资量不能超过
基金量 5% 的限制。 私募组成的对冲基金没有向

比如大家熟知的对冲基金 ) ) ) 量子基金的运
作同普通的资产运作比较起来具有许多鲜明的特

外界公布投资对象或投资收益的义务 , 在一定程

点。 一是善于充分利用杠杆原理, 巧妙利用借贷

度上起了防止他人仿效的作用 。

和抵押, 购入各种证券以获取最大的利益。 二是

2. 是封闭式合伙基金
对冲基金以合伙的形式出现。合伙投资人不

投资于很多不同类型及风险的资产 。既投资于货
币, 又投资于别的金融资产, 如股票、
债券和期权

能随意进出基金 , 一般以 5 年 - 10 年为期限。 这

等。 三是在这些不同的资产类型中既做空头也做

是因为经济周期一般为 4、 年的缘故 , 基金的投
5
资期限大于经济周期 , 保证了基金管理人员有充

多头 。 四是在侧重于大量使用财务杠杆的基础
上, 购买短期证券, 以保持高度的流动性 。索罗斯

足的时间来运作基金 。

认为短期证券比长期证券的业绩要好得多。 五是

对冲基金的合伙人水准较高, 财富也较大 , 也

在与投资者的关系方面 , 它是一种业绩基金 , 即基

较有耐心和眼光 , 多为百万富翁 , 5 年 10 年不等
钱用 。 如索罗斯的量子基金和长 期资本管理公

金管理人员所得的报酬与盈利成正比, 而不是按
后者所管理的基金规模而定的。并且, 在基金中

司 , 其投资者都是超级大富翁 , 或者是金融寡头、

有管理人员的资金 , 索罗斯本人就是量子基金的

工业巨头, 或者各种的明星或暴发户 。量子基金
的投资者不足 100 人 , 每个投资者的投资额少则

主要持股人。 他们把按基金业绩所得的酬金再投
资于基金 。这样, 基金存在的时间越久越成功, 基

100 万美元, 多则 1000 万美元 。

金管理人员在其中所拥有的份额也越大 。

3. 对冲基金是杠杆基金

除了上述特点外, 对冲基金经理一般把基金

对冲基金运作过程中 , 为了使金融市场向有
利于自身的方向运转 , 需要投入巨大的资金来推

定位为利用大趋势 , 即配合市场走势搞宏观投
资。 据说 , 索罗斯在作投资决策时 , 既运用宏观经

动市场 。但对冲基金自身的资金毕竟是有限的 。

济学知识 , 也运用政治经济学和地缘经济学知

因此, 对冲操作要求对冲基金经理大胆利用资金

识。 这其实是一种由上而下的投资策略 。其做法

的杠杆作用 , 扩大资产不足的限制。 所以说, 对冲
基金又是一种杠杆基金。

首先是确定市场当时的宏观走势, 然后选出股票 、
债券或其它类别证券, 最后在所选的投资类别中

为了获得杠杆资金, 一方面需要对冲基金具

再选中要投资的项目, 如股票 、
债券、
货币或期权

有良好业绩 , 再就是基金本身与银行等金融机构
具有良好的业务往来 , 甚或私人交情 。比如量子

等。 这相当于三度的资产分配, 把资产按其宏观
投资观点来配置, 效率很高。

基金的主要合伙人索罗斯几乎和西方国家所有政
要 、金融界首脑有很深的交往 。长期资本管理公
司的合伙人则是世界上不能再顶尖的人物 。比如
∋ 长管( 合伙人中包括 1997 年诺贝尔经济学奖得
主默顿及斯科尔斯, 1994 年离开联储副主席职位
的穆林斯, 哈佛大学商学院教授罗盛佛德 , 等等 。
这些合伙人的加盟为对冲基金融资提供了便利 。
( 三 ) 对冲基金的操作特点

对冲基金大规模运用财务杠杆 ,
不仅多倍地放大了自身的风险, 同时
也对国际金融市场带来了巨大冲击,
危害国际金融市场的稳定, 因此, 国
际社会宜采取措施加强对对冲基金
的监管。

对冲基金的上述特点 , 也决定了对冲基金的
独特运行特点。
经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

37

金融世界

旗下的 5 只基金总资产约 150 亿美元, 如果 10 倍
杠杆 , 就达 1500 亿美元, 非一般国家的外汇储备

三、对冲基金的市场危害:
易引发全球金融危机

可比 。
令人担心的是 , 对冲基金一旦发生问题会真

( 一 ) 对冲基金干扰国际金融市场的正常运转

正引起全球金融危机。 其理由是, 对冲基金投机
操作大量运用杠杆原理 , 一旦投机失败 , 将使银行

对冲基金惯用的操作手法则是买卖结合的对

等金融机构产生大量呆账、 。 比如 LT CM 杠
坏账

冲机制 , 但有时也不进行对冲而单方向操作。 也
就是说 , 对冲基金可以在股市上卖空而没有相应

杆倍数达 133 倍, 向世界上几乎所有大银行都融
通过资金 。L T CM 出了问题后 , 一直在东南亚金

的持有一些公司的股票, 或者在衍生工具上做空

融危机面前不慌不忙的美国一时慌了神 。美国联

或做多而没有任何相应的对冲资产。 这样 , 与通

储主 席 格林 斯 潘马 上 决定 调 低利 率 , 来 对付

常的买卖相比 , 基金把自己的风 险放大了许多
倍 。一旦操作正确, 能够获得巨额利润; 一旦操作

L T CM 操作失误引起的金融冲击。
对冲基金的利
害由此可见一斑。 长期资本管理公司事件中 , 国

失误, 则要遭受巨额损失。

际银行界损失惨重 ( 见表 2) 。

对冲基金大赚大赔, 完全符合风险与收益成
正比的财务原理 。比如, 因俄罗斯金融危机而受

( 三) 国际社会的对策
对冲基金是一种私募的合伙基金, 又常常进
行离岸注册登记 , 有关

表 1 ∗ 在俄罗斯受损的对冲基金表 ∗ ( 单位 : 美元 )
对冲基金名称 火鸟管理基金 索罗斯旗下 基金 高风险机会基金
损失数额

60% 资产

20 亿

9亿

机 构无法对 其进行管

奥美加

老虎对冲基金

23% 资产

6亿

理 。为此, 我们应该积
极 研究对对 冲基金的
监管, 化解全球金融市

∗ ∗ 资料来源 : 1998 年 9 月 29 日 国 际金融信息报! , 第 4 版。

场风险 。笔者认为, 国

表 2 ∗ 国际银行界损失情 况表 ∗ ( 单位 : 美元 )
金融机构名称

法国百利银行

苏黎世信贷第一波士顿公司

德利银 行

瑞士联合银行

损失数额

670 万

5500 万

1 44 亿

际 社会宜采 取下列措
施。

6 857 亿

般基金运作水平 。
措施之二, 不允许

∗ ∗ 资料来源 : 1998 年 9 月 29 日 国 际金融信息报! , 第 4 版。

损的有关对冲基金情况请参见下表( 见表 1) 。

措施之一, 提高一

金融机构向经营证券业务的机构融资。

这样大量的基金受损 , 必然会引起金融市场

措施之三 , 加强国际间对资本离岸操作监管

的巨大混乱 。
( 二 ) 对冲基金一旦操作失误, 会引起整个国

的协调。
措施之四 , 保持金融市场的相对稳定, 使对冲

际金融市场的连锁反应

基金无赚钱机会。

为了追求高利, 对冲基金大规模运用财务杠
杆。
当胜算把握大时 , 杠杆倍数可近 20。
财务杠杆

措施之五 , 鼓励巨额财富拥有者, 将资产投向
其它行业 , 如风险基金等 。

的使用能使对冲基金实力膨胀 , 从而挑战一个国

措施之六 , 把对冲基金纳入管理范围, 一旦违

家或整个地区。 以索罗斯的量子基金为例 , 他的
38

纪操作, 严惩不怠。
经济导刊

1999 年第 1 期

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