Premium Essay

If Current Trends Continue, China May Emerge as the World's Largest Economy by 2020.

In:

Submitted By zainorin
Words 1486
Pages 6
1.
Discuss the possible implications of such a development for

(1) The world trading system.

(2) The world monetary system.

(3)The business strategy of today's European and U.S. based global corporations.

(4)Global commodity prices

Answer:

The world trading system would clearly be affected by such a development. Currently China enjoys a somewhat privileged status within the World Trade Organization as a ―developing country. Such a rise to eminence, however, would clearly force it to become a full and equal member, with all the rights and responsibilities. China would also be in a position to actively affect the terms of trade between many countries. On the monetary front, one would expect that China would have to have fully convertible and trading currency, and it could become one of the ―benchmark currencies of the world. From the perspective of Western global firms, China would represent both a huge market, and potentially the home base of some very capable competitors. Finally, commodity prices would probably fall.

2. The world’s poorest countries are at a competitive disadvantage in every sector of their economies. They have little to export. They have no capital; their land is of poor quality; they often have too many people given available work opportunities; and they are poorly educated. Free trade cannot possibly be in the interests of such nations! Discuss.

Poor countries have no. of barriers for their national growth. Surrounding conditions make them more dependable upon other countries for their common needs.

Characteristics of Poor Countries

Low capital: Industries are not developed. Less investor is available. Source of income of citizens of poor countries are limited. They have less manufacturing units. Resources of country are underdeveloped or no developed:

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Chapter 1

...Chelsea McCann 1. Describe the shifts in the world economy over the last 30 years.  What are the implications of these shifts for international businesses based in Great Britain? North America? Hong Kong? As stated in chapter 1, Along with globalization, there has been a significant change in demographics of the global economy over the last 30 years. The aspects that contributed to demographics throughout the 1960’s were U.S. dominance in the world economy, world trade picture, world foreign direct investment, and on the international business scene. Also, much of the world economies were off-limits to Western international business. The demographics of the multinational enterprise have displayed not only a rise of non-U.S. multinationals but also a growth of mini-multinationals. In 1973, 48.5 percent of the 260 largest multinationals in the world were U.S. firms. The second leading country with the largest multinationals was the UK. While these countries, along with France, Germany and Japan, are still determined to be the largest multinationals, developing countries are on the rise. Firms from these developing countries are expected to give rise to leading competitors, which would continue to shift the world economy away from North America and Great Britain. The United States’ share of the world output has decreased from 40.3% in 1963. The decline has been a result of the growing industrialization of countries such as Great Britain, North America and Hong Kong...

Words: 449 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Nucor Case Study

...CRITICAL DISCUSSION QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 课后练习参考答案 1. Describe the shifts in the world economy over the last 30 years. What are the implications of these shifts for international businesses based in Great Britain? North America? Hong Kong? Answer: The world economy has shifted dramatically over the past 30 years. As late as the 1960s, four stylized facts described the demographics of the global economy. The first was U.S. dominance in the world economy and world trade. The second was U.S. dominance in the world foreign direct investment picture. Related to this, the third fact was the dominance of large, multinational U.S. firms in the international business scene. The fourth was that roughly half of the globe - the centrally planned economies of the Communist world - was off-limits to Western international businesses. All of these demographic facts have changed. Although the U.S. remains the world's dominant economic power, its share of world output and world exports have declined significantly since the 1960s. This trend does not reflect trouble in the U.S. economy, but rather reflects the growing industrialization of developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and South Korea. This trend is also reflected in the world foreign direct investment picture. As depicted in Figure 1.2 in the textbook, the share of world output (or the stock of foreign direct investment) generated by developing countries has been on a steady increase since the 1960s, while...

Words: 2138 - Pages: 9

Premium Essay

Negotiation

...MEGATRENDS UNDERPINNING TOURISM TO 2020 Analysis of key drivers for change Larry Dwyer, Deborah Edwards, Nina Mistilis, Carolina Roman, Noel Scott and Chris Cooper Analysis of Key Drivers for Change Technical Reports The technical report series present data and its analysis, meta-studies and conceptual studies, and are considered to be of value to industry, government and researchers. Unlike the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre’s Monograph series, these reports have not been subjected to an external peer review process. As such, the scientific accuracy and merit of the research reported here is the responsibility of the authors, who should be contacted for clarification of any content. Author contact details are at the back of this report. National Library of Australia Cataloguing in Publication Data Dwyer, Larry. Megatrends underpinning tourism to 2020: analysis of key drivers for change. Bibliography. ISBN 9781920965525. 1. Tourism - Economic aspects - Australia. 2. Tourism - Social aspects - Australia. 3. Tourism - Political aspects - Australia. 4. Tourism - Environmental aspects - Australia. 5. Tourism - Australia. I. Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism. II. Title. 338.47910994 Copyright © CRC for Sustainable Tourism Pty Ltd 2008 All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this book may be reproduced by any process without...

Words: 40109 - Pages: 161

Premium Essay

Chapter One Questions

...Describe the shifts in the world economy over the past 30 years.  What are the implications of these shifts for international businesses based in Great Britain? North America? Hong Kong? Over the last 30 years, there has been a shift away from a world in which national economies were relatively self-contained entities, isolated by barriers to cross-border trade and investment, and by national differences in government regulation, culture, and business systems; and moving toward a world where barriers to cross-border trade and investment are declining, material cultures are becoming similar, and national economies are merging into an integrated, interdependent global economic system.  As companies from Japan and emerging markets like China play a more vital role in the world economy, the dominance of companies from the United States and Western Europe has diminished.  Significant implications for British firms involve looking beyond Europe and America for investment and opportunities.  Consumer spending power is growing quickly in developing countries. For North American companies, the same holds true, although the importance of the growing prosperity in Latin America suggests a potentially huge market in “their backyard.” Hong Kong is perceived as the gateway to the immense market of mainland China.  Since Hong Kong firms are now less taken for granted, access to China is improving along with the move towards a market economy within China.  International businesses based in...

Words: 1336 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Logistics

...Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest economic power by almost any measure. The extrapolations are supported by two types of considerations. First, China’s growth patterns of the past 25 years since the beginning of economic reforms match well those identified by standard economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). Second, decomposing China’s GDP growth into growth of labor and other variables, the near-certain information available today about the quantity and quality of Chinese laborers through 2015, if not several years after, allows inferences about future GDP growth. Short of some cataclysmic event, demographics alone suggests China’s continued economic rise. If talent is randomly distributed in the world population and if agglomeration of talent is important, then the odds are strongly in China’s favor. Introduction The rapid economic growth of China since the beginning of the economic reforms in 1978 has captured...

Words: 4681 - Pages: 19

Premium Essay

China

...A study on China and the World Economy of Today: A look at the impact of China’s Global economic integration and Prices. Chapter one: Introduction 1.1 Introduction Since 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government has stood out in restructuring its economy from a Soviet-style centrally planned economy towards a market-oriented economy nonetheless within the political framework, provided by the Communist Party of China. This system has been called "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" and is one type of mixed economy. “These reforms started since 1978 has helped lift millions of people out of poverty, bringing the poverty rate down from 53% of population in 1981 to 8% by 2001” (OECD 2002a). Over the preceding decades, the existence of China in the world’s economy is full-fledged. Laterally, China is properly or erroneously seen to have a massive impact on the world’s economy. In today’s trade market, China is at present generally regarded to be the world’s workspace, there-by relocating some traditional exporters of labor-intensive goods, irrespective of the fact that its economy is constantly woven into the fabric of progressive split chain of making (Menzie D.2009). The emergence of China as an industrial and export livewire is undoubtedly one of the most significant forces reshaping the present-day world economy. Barry E and Hui T in 2005 stated that “A now standard way of conveying this point is to observe that the increase in employment...

Words: 7044 - Pages: 29

Free Essay

Demographic Trends and Development in Africa

...A TERM PAPER ON UNDERSTANDING DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA BY MADUEJEGBU ESTHER NNEKA MATRIC NUMBER 129086035 COURSE CODE –SOC 807 TITLE- SOCIOLOGY OF DEVELOPMENT LECTURER: PROF. ADEDOKUN Understanding Demographic Trends Demographic trends reveal developments and changes in human population. More specifically, demographic trends relate to changes in a population’s age, gender, geographical location, marital status, educational attainment, employment status, household income, race, religion, and health. Africa is the second-largest and second most populous continent on earth with an estimated population in 2013 of 1.033 billion people. Africa is home to 54 recognized sovereign states and countries, 9 territories and 2 de facto independent states with very little recognition. Africa's population is not too large in relation to land area, but to reproducible capital, research and educational facilities, the entrepreneurial class, leadership and the available channels of economic diffusion. The UN PopulationFund stated in 2009 that thepopulationof Africa had hit the one billion mark and hadthereforedoubled in size over the course of 27 years. It's now estimated that Africa has a population of 1.033 billion people in 2013. The Population Fund’s Director Thoraya Obeid spoke to the BBC at the time and underlined the reasons behind the growing population. "Africa countries are all growing fast... because there is large number of women who have no access to planning...

Words: 3018 - Pages: 13

Premium Essay

Paper

...Group - 1 INTRODUCTION OF PESTEL ANALYSIS For the development of any country many factors plays vital role. The trades as well as all the factors are interrelated. One of the most important factors affecting the expansion of country is PESTEL This analysis provides a holistic view of any country from historical current and future. This analysis on critical, current and future is presented through detail is called SCPT. That means (strengths, challenges, prospects, and threats). Analysis of each segments the PESTLE country analysis provides an in depth analysis of 50 major countries This classification is distinguishes between PESTEL mainly contains following points :  Political factors  Economic factors  Social factors  Technological factors  Environmental factors  Legal factors FEATURES OF PESTEL ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIA  Get trend and forecast of real GDP growth rate of Malaysia.  Get trend of consumption expenditure in percentage of GDP in Malaysia.  Research and development factors of Malaysia.  Technological factors of Malaysia.  Get trend of growth of population rate in Malaysia.  Get trend of unemployment rate in Malaysia.  Get trend of savings and consumption as well as investment and expenditure in percentage in GDP of Malaysia. BENEFITS OF PESTEL ANALYSIS IN MALAYSIA  Political section on Malaysia provides get the information about the whole political system governors indicators and all key figures in the country.  From economic section we get all...

Words: 7955 - Pages: 32

Premium Essay

Global Trends in Energy Investment

...global trends in sUstainable energy investment 2010 Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency United nations environment Programme Endorsed by Copyright © United Nations Environment Programme and New Energy Finance, 2010 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Disclaimer United Nations Environment Programme: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the United Nations Environment Programme, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement. Bloomberg New Energy Finance: The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected public...

Words: 33322 - Pages: 134

Free Essay

Strategic Implications from the People’s Republic of China’s Influence in the Americas: Potential Consequences Facing the United States, Brazil &Venezuela

...SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF SCIENCE IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS J. Sebastian Smith The Bahamas October 2011 Title Strategic Implications from the People’s Republic of China’s Influence in the Americas: Potential Consequences facing the United States, Brazil &Venezuela Abstract This research seeks to examine the strategic implications facing the United States of America’s due to its benign interest in the Caribbean and Latin America (Americas) given the People’s Republic of China (China) increasing economic interest in the region. It is intended to first define the current security environment of the Americas and the relations between Brazil and Venezuela with that of the United States of America (United States) and China. Thereafter, China’s economic and domestic agenda in the Americas will be examined with hypotheses of the emerging global power potential growth success, challenges or possible collapse in her foreign policy. The likely consequences facing Brazil, Venezuela and the United States will also be examined. The assessment will be done across a continuum of China’s realized economic growth, development of hostile relations due to competition for scarce energy sources or possible collapse due to the country’s internal problems. Finally, the research seeks to encourage proactive thinking by the United States on China’s increasing political and...

Words: 9457 - Pages: 38

Premium Essay

Emerging Economic and Political Conflicts as Threat to Prosperity

...Energy Studies, Dehradun. (Uttarakhand), INDIA __________________________________________________________________________ Abstract India’s rapid economic growth has made it the second fastest growing energy market in the world. Its domestic and international strategies has produced foreign policy differences with the United States that will require careful management on both sides. India’s basic approach to energy diplomacy has been to develop its supply potential and neutralize its potential competitors, principally China. India’s strategic interest in Iran as its energy partner and then the Iraq crisis are having a negative consequence on its economic prosperity, placing it on crossroads with the US. There is a divide between US and EU about the wisdom and desirability of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Russia. In any such confrontation, EU stands to lose much more than the US, though it can be argued that Russia will be the worst loser. In future, Russia may try to find new potential market for its gas and that could be India. So it is important for India to take its stand on Ukraine crisis carefully without tarnishing its relation with USA. India’s long-term prosperity hinges to some degree on a conflict free neighborhood; that an economically integrated region is in India’s overall security interests. Keywords: oil crisis, energy diplomacy, Ukraine Crisis, trade agreement, SAARC Nations Literature Review Indian foreign policy has always concentrated around major powerful...

Words: 8568 - Pages: 35

Premium Essay

Clean Energy Markets: Jobs and Opportunities

...growing fast. Between 2004 and 2007, global investments in renewable energy more than doubled. Forecasts of investment totals over the next few decades vary according to assumptions made regarding the nature of future global climate agreements. Annual investments in global renewable energy markets could reach $106-$230 billion a year in 2020 and as much as $424 billion a year in 2030 (in year 2000 dollars). Over the next decade, assuming strong global action on climate change, cumulative global investment totals for clean power generation technologies could reach nearly $2.2 trillion. Recognizing the potential of these markets, China, Europe, and other nations are moving to cultivate their own clean energy industries and position them to gain large market shares in the decades ahead. In 2009, China invested more money in clean energy technologies than the United States for the first time, and Europe continued to lead the world in clean energy investments, spending over $41 billion. Nearly 90 percent of today’s market for clean energy technologies is outside of the United States, primarily in Asia and Europe. China now boasts the world’s largest solar panel manufacturing industry – which exports about 95 percent of its...

Words: 10639 - Pages: 43

Premium Essay

2050 Economy

...publication broadens our list of the world’s top 30 economies to the top 100. The underlying theme is that the economies we currently call “emerging” are going to power global growth over the next four decades. Our update tells the story of the emergence of parts of Africa, the rise of some of the central Asian republics, as well as some startling advances for countries such as the Philippines and Peru. By Karen Ward Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it Economics Global 11 January 2012 abc From the Top 30 to the Top 100  Attention will increasingly turn to the ‘new emergers’ as the world economy undergoes a seismic shift  Demographics to play a crucial role, helping parts of Africa finally emerge from economic obscurity When we published ‘The World in 2050’ a year ago (4 January 2011), we gave a projection for the Top 30 economies by size in 2050 from a pool of the largest 40 economies today. This update casts a wider net and seeks to identify the Top 100 economies by size. A larger universe increases competition for the Top 30 and allows us to consider the ‘new emergers’ in the coming decades. Our ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of...

Words: 12689 - Pages: 51

Premium Essay

How China Rises

...How China rises What lessons can be drawn from China's spectacular and sustained economic growth? As Hu Jintau remarked at the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, the period since the previous Congress five years ago has been extraordinary. China's economic achievements have been arousing not only astonishment and admiration but also some anxiety. In the past twelve months alone, The People's Republic of China (PRC) has overtaken Canada as the biggest source of imports to the USA, and overtaken the USA as the biggest source of imports to the European Union. Concern about the low level of investment in Africa has been displaced by concern about the effects of the high level of Chinese investment in Africa; there is now even anxiety about the effects of investment by Chinese state-owned firms into the Western economies. The Chinese Communist Party is also expressing concerns. The themes of its 2007 Congress included protection of the environment and the achievement of social harmony. According to some estimates, China has displaced the USA as the world's biggest source of greenhouse gases. Inequality is rising as fast as pollution: China now has over 800 individuals with a personal wealth of more than a hundred million US dollars each, up from 500 in 2006; while the average income in rural areas of China is 480 dollars per year. Made in China. Hu Jintau's remark on the extraordinary nature of the most recent years can be faulted in only one sense: China has...

Words: 51278 - Pages: 206

Premium Essay

Analysis of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

...Correlation 7) Chapter 3: Company Analysis 24 * Company Profiles (10 Companies) * Financial Ratio Analysis * DCF Valuation * Valuation Shares 8) Conclusion 74 9) Bibliography 76 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Research Project Topic: “Analysis and Valuation of the Indian Pharma Sector” The research objectives of this specialization project are: 1) Identifying the key indicators of the Global Pharma Industry 2) Understand and analyze the Indian Pharma Industry and identify the prominent players. 3) To examine the trends in the pharma industry 4) Fundamental and Technical Analyses of the Top 10 pharma companies in India. The main objective of this study is: 1) Valuation of the Top 10 Pharma companies 2) Finding the correct share price of the company 3) Making investment decision of- Buying, Selling or Holding the stocks of the respective pharma company. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Global Pharma Industry is likely to grow at a CAGR of 5% to US $ 1...

Words: 11741 - Pages: 47