SOUTH AFRICA ON THE FACE OF THE GLOBAL RECESSION
South Africa was not spared by the global recession that gripped the global markets in 2009. The global economy remained firmly in the grips of a recession in the first quarter of 2009, South African markets correspondingly quaked as activity continued to decline at broadly the same pace that had been registered in the previous quarter. Driven by further sharp contractions in real output of the advanced economies in the wake of the financial crisis, the decline in production and international trade volumes reverberated in all parts of the world (Quarterly Bulletin, No.252). Accordingly, emerging-market economies also recorded significantly slower and even negative rates of growth, with declining export demand and lustreless prices of most export commodities acting as powerful brakes on the growth momentum in Africa and elsewhere in the developing world.
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The South African Quarterly Bulletin, No.252 further noted that under these circumstances inflationary pressures dissipated in most parts of the world. At the same time, numerous countries continued with their efforts to support aggregate demand by means of unparalleled infusions of fiscal and monetary stimulation. Up to the first quarter of 2009 this did not seem to have had the desired effect. Most recently, however, there have been some improvements in a limited subset of indicators, suggesting that the pace of decline in global demand may be decelerating. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of uncertain global financial markets it remains too early conclusively to confirm the arrival of a turning point in global aggregate demand.
After the South African economy had recorded its first contraction in ten years in the final quarter of
2008, economic activity contracted further – and at a considerably worse pace than before – in the first quarter