Import Substitution and Industrialization in Latin Amercia: Experiences and Interpretations Author(s): Werner Baer Source: Latin American Research Review, Vol. 7, No. 1 (Spring, 1972), pp. 95-122 Published by: The Latin American Studies Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2502457 Accessed: 26/08/2009 09:21
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AND INDUSTRIALIMPORT SUBSTITUTION IZATION IN LATIN AMERICA: AND INTERPRETATIONS* EXPERIENCES
WernerBaer,VanderbiltUniversity
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES MANY LATIN AMERICAN GOVERN-

Industrialization ments adoptedImportSubstitution (ISI) as their principalmethod By to achieve economicgrowth and socio-economicmodernization. the opening of doubt about ISI's successin solving the the Seventies,however,there is considerable region's developmentproblems. In many countriesthe possibilities for further imin growthhad slowed, job opportunities Industrial had port-substitution disappeared. industryfor Latin America'srapidlygrowing urbanpopulationwere scarce,income distributionhad in many countrieseither remainedunchangedor had becomemore than in the early post-WorldWar II years,and most industrialgoods concentrated producedwithin the region were priced so high that export possibilities were severelylimited. over Considerabledebate has taken place among economistsand policymakers of the merits of ISI as a strategyfor economicdevelopment,the performance ISI in variouscountries,over the nature of post-ISI problemswhich these countrieshave faced,and overpoliciesto dealwith thesepost-ISIproblems. In this review articleI shall firstdescribethe natureof ISI in LatinAmerica,its prior to World War II, and its developmentin the decadesof the Fifties occurrence and Sixties. I shall then review the problemswhich developed as ISI reachedmaturity and review various analysesdeveloped to explain these problems. Finally, I shall examinevariousstrategieswhich have been suggestedfor the post-ISIperiod.
THE NATURE OF ISI IN LATIN AMERICA

ISI is an attemptby economicallyless-developedcountriesto breakout of the world division of labor which had emerged in the nineteenthcenturyand the early part of the twentiethcentury.Under this division, LatinAmerica (and most areasof Asia and Africa) specializedin the exportof food and raw materials,while importgoods from Europe and the United States. Import substitution ing manufactured consists of establishingdomestic productionfacilities to manufacturegoods which after Great were formerlyimported.It follows that all countrieswhich industrialized Britain, went through a stage of ISI; that is, all passed through a stage where the to largerpartof investmentin industrieswas undertaken replaceimports.ISI would
* The author wishes to thank David Felix, Andrea Maneschi, Carlos M. Pelaez, William Steel, and William 0. Thweatt for many useful suggestions.

95

Latin American Research Review come to a close when most investmentwas channeledtowardsthe constructionof demand. to capacity producefor new incremental The ISI wave in Europeand the United Statesoccurredin the middle and second half of the nineteenth century.' It is a well-known fact that in this early ISI and playedan activerole in encouraging protectingthe developprocessgovernments of ment of infant industries. Another characteristic nineteenth century ISI is its investAlthough in some countriesfinance for infrastructure "national"character. ment was obtainedfrom abroad,industrieswere for the most part in domestichands, while the design of machinesand skilled manpowerto run them were often imported period. from Englandin the earlyindustrialization Once Western Europeand the United Stateshad undergonetheir initial industrializations,importsubstitutiondid not come entirelyto an end. However, it ceased and being mainly a mechanismof industrialization, becamein the twentiethcentury specialpartof a continuingprocessof growth and of a changingpatternof industrial countries.2 advanced izationamongeconomically There are varioushistoricalreasonswhy the countriesof Africa, Asia and Latin Americadid not undergoISI at the time of, or right after, the EuropeanISI's. Colonial policies of Europeancountriesprovide much of the explanationfor the former helps explain the LatinAmericancase.The structure two cases,while socio-economic externalmarketsfor the region'sprimaryexports,which benepresenceof attractive of fited the elites, meant that there was little political desire to change the structure the economies.Also in the nineteenthcenturyand earlypartof the twentiethcentury, classes,labor force, infraLatinAmericancountriesdid not have the entrepreneurial capacityto cope with an extensiveindustrialmarketsize, or administrative structure, powershad izationprocess.Also in the case of some countries,like Brazil, European enough leverageto force governmentsto maintainfree trade policies, thus in effect blockinganypossibilityof ISI.3
ISI BEFORE AND DURING THE SECOND WORLD WAR

activitiesprior to Latin Americawas not completelydevoid of manufacturing World War I. It has by now been well documentedthat in the latter part of the nineteenth centuryworkshopsand small factoriesin textiles and food productsindustrieshad developed in some parts of Argentina,Brazil, Mexico and other larger countries.Also, machinetools and spare parts workshopsdeveloped to service railroads,sugar refiningmills, etc.4These activitieswere usuallystartedby importersof equipment.Therewere some isolatedattemptsto raisetariffsboth to protectincipient industriesand to stimulatethe creationof new ones.5 It would be mistaken,howpriorto World War I. The bulk of manufactured ever,to speakof "industrialization" goods consumed in Latin Americawere either importedor producedby small domestic workshops, while exports consisted almost entirely of primary products.6 Except for Argentina, the population was primarilyrural, and the primaryexport of sectorwas the pacesetter economicactivity,while workshopsand small industries to were appendages generaleconomicactivity. It should be noted, however, that on the eve of World War I the primaryex96

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA

port sector with its complementary activities in services (banking, merchandizing, etc.) had in transportation, (communication, government) and social infrastructure many Latin Americancountriescreateda fairly substantialmiddle dass which congoods. consumer sumedlargequantitiesof importedmanufactured
ISIINDUCEDFROMABROAD

World War I, the GreatDepressionof the Thirties and World War II induced The interruption pronouncedspurtsof ISI in most largerLatinAmericancountries.7 of shipping and the decline of non-militaryproductionin Europe and the United goods StatesduringWorld War I createdsevereshortagesof importedmanufactured of in Latin America,raisedrelativeprices of such goods, and increasedprofitability ISI investment.Textiles, food products,and variousother light consumergoods industrieswere the principal fields of ISI in that period. In the Twenties many of these newly createdISI industriesstagnatedbecauseof renewedU. S. and European competitionand the general refusal of policy makersto protect infant industriesof recentvintage. It was generallythought that World War I had been an aberration from the naturalorder of things, which was reflectedin the world division of labor to of the nineteenthcentury.Hence policymakerswere reluctant tamperwith a movementbackto "normalcy."8 The depressionof the Thirtiesresultedin renewedshortagesof importedgoods. The fall of foreign exchange receipts from exports forced most countries of the to region drastically curtailimports.The decline resultedat first in increaseduse of in productivecapacitywhich had been underLtilized the Twenties, and later in the ISI creationof new industrialcapacity.9 in World War I, the depression-induced As occurred primarily in light consumer goods industries, although in some cases, steel and capitalgoods industrieswere developed on a relatively especiallyBrazil,10 smallscale. World War II had a stimulatingeffect on ISI industries:shortagesof foreign manufactured goods led to full utilizationof industrialcapacity;"some investment in new capacityoccurredwhen capital goods could be imported; and even some wereexportedby Argentina,Brazil,and Mexico. textile products
IS IN THE FIFTIESAND SIXTIES

But it was only after World War II that ISI becamea deliberatepolicy tool for economicdevelopment.Most of the larger countriesof Latin Americaimplicitly or explicitlyacceptedthe ECLA analysisof the hopelessnessof gearing their economies world division of labor.12Continuedrelianceon the exportof towardsthe traditional becauseof the instabilityof food and primaryproductswas thought to be precarious such exports,which would not be conduciveto long termdevelopmentbecauseof the relativelyslow growth of world demandfor such products.'3It was thought that ISI would introducea dynamicelement into the LatinAmericaneconomiesand increase their rates of growth. The latter were deemed essentialto deal with the population explosion of the region and to meet the demandsof the increasinglyurban population for the ways of life of the masses in more advancedcountries.It was also 97

Review LatinAmericanResearch thought that ISI would bring greater economic independenceto Latin American goods would place LatinAmericaneconoin countries:self-sufficiency manufactured mies less at the mercyof the world economy. used to promote and intensify ISI were: proThe principalpolicy instruments tectivetariffsand/or exchangecontrols;specialpreferencesfor domesticand foreign firmsimportingcapitalgoods for new industries;preferentialimport exchangerates for industrialraw materials,fuels and intermediategoods; cheap loans by governby ment developmentbanksfor favoredindustries;the construction governmentsof especially designed to complementindustries;and the direct particiinfrastructure pation of governmentin certain industries, especiallythe heavier industries,such as steel, where neither domestic nor foreign private capital was willing or able to invest.'4 that is, there were not atThe promotionof ISI industrieswas indiscriminate, on tempts to concentrate industrialsectorswhich might have had a potential comparativeadvantage.In some countriesISI occurredfor considerableperiods of time in consumergoods industriesonly. A concise summaryis given by David Felix: ". . . the initial industriesare generallyconsumergoods or building materialsproper ducerswith a relativelysimple technologyand a low capitalrequirement worker and per unit of output. They are then followed by consumergoods industriesrequiring a more sophisticatedtechnology and larger capital outlay, shading subsequently into industries producing relatively complex consumer durables, steel; This descriptionis especiallyrelevantin the engineeringand chemicalproducts."'5 cases of countriessuch as Argentina,Chile, Venezuela.In other countries,especially Brazil, the governmentwas anxious to promote maximumvertical integration,i.e., and capitalgoods to promoteboth final consumergoods industriesand intermediate sectors. goods indusIn some cases,where the initial thrustof ISI was on final consumer verticalintegrationdeveloped.'6That is, firms to tries, a built-in resistance backward which establishedthemselvesin the first ISI period pressuredgovernmentsnot to develop domesticintermediateand capitalgoods industries,since these would prohigher pricesthan importedinputs.However,as the areas duce inputsat substantially integrationefforts. for furtherISI declined,most countriespressedon with backward An importantfeatureof Latin AmericanISI in the Fifties and Sixties was the of participation foreign capital.Although its proportionof total savings was often in below 10 per cent, it was instrumental setting up key manufacturing substantially capabilities.This was also industriesby transferringknow-how and organizational which investmentsand heavyindustriesowned by governments, truein infrastructure dependedon foreignfinancingand technicalaid.'7
THE RESULTS OF ISI

Tables 1 through 5 present a summaryof the impact of ISI on the principal economiesof the region and on the LatinAmericaneconomyas a whole. In Table 1 of we have variousmeasuresof the changesin the percentagedistribution the Gross Domestic Product.It should be noted that for countrieswhere the dataare available, 98

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA
TABLE 1

Changes in the Structure of the Economies of Selected Countries (Percentage Distribution of Gross Domestic Product According to Principal Sectors)
ARGENTINA

1960 Prices 1927-9 1963-5 Agriculture Oil &Mining Manufacturing Construction Source: Diaz-Alejandro, Essays.
BRAZIL

1937 Prices 1963-5 1927-9 30.5 0.6 13.4 3.1 18.4 3.5 18.6 2.6

27.4 0.3 23.6 4.2

17.1 1.5 33.7 3.6

1939

Current Prices 1947 1953 1960

1968

1947 30.0 20.6 49.4

1953 Prices 1953 1960 26.1 23.7 50.2 22.2 28.0 49.8

1968 20.5 29.3 50.2

22.6 26.1 17.9 Agriculture 25.8 27.6 23.7 25.2 28.0 Industry 19.4 19.8 52.2 54.1 Other 54.8 52.6 50.2 Source: Fundasao Getulio Vargas, Centro de Contas Nacionais.
MEXICO

1900

Current Prices 1910 1930 25.9 13.5 23.4 16.7

1940 24.3 8.5 28.5 22.6

1950 22.5 5.7 31.0 24.5

1960 18.9 5.4 30.6 27.7

Rural 34.6 27.9 9.1 6.4 Extractive Commerce & Transp. 23.4 23.4 13.7 13.2 Mfg., Construc. & Elec. Source: Reynolds, Mexican Economy.

LATIN AMERICA

Current Prices 1950 1967 Produc. of Goods Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Construction Basic Services Other Services Commerce & Finance Misc. Services 52.4 25.2 4.1 19.6 3.5 7.2 40.4 18.0 22.4 52.3 20.5 4.4 24.1 3.3 8.3 39.4 18.8 20.6

Annual Rates of Growth 1950-60 1960-67 1950-67 4.9 3.5 6.1 6.2 4.6 5.5 4.8 5.1 4.5 4.6 3.5 4.1 5.8 4.1 5.7 4.4 4.9 3.9 4.8 3.5 5.3 6.0 4.4 5.6 4.6 5.0 4.2

Total 100.0 4.6 4.8 100.0 4.9 Source: Naciones Unidas, CEPAL, Estudio economico de America Latina, 1968 (New York, 1969), p. 18.

99

TABLE 2

a) Distribution of Economically Active Population (per cent distribution)
ARGENTINA

1925-9

1960-1

Rural Sector Oil and Mining Manufacutring Construction Public Utilities Transport Communications Commerce, Finance and Housing Government Services Other Services Source: Diaz-Alejandro, Essay.
BRAZIL

35.7 0.3 22.0 5.5 0.5 4.6 0.5 13.6 4.6 12.6

21.7 0.6 26.0 6.0 0.8 5.7 1.0 14.3 10.4 13.6

1940 Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Source: Various Brazilian Demographic Censuses.
MEXICO

1950 64.4 12.9 22.7 100.0

1960 58.5 12.7 28.8 100.0

71.0 8.9 20.1 100.0

1910 Agriculture Mining Mfg., Construc. & Power Services Total Source: Reynolds, Mexican Economy. 67.1 1.9 13.1 17.8 100.0
LATIN AMERICA

1940 65.4 1.7 11.0 21.9 100.0

1950 58.3 1.2 14.8 25.7 100.0

1960 54.1 1.2 17.7 27.0 100.0

1950 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing (artisan) Construction Basic Services Other Services (commerce & finance) Total Source: CEPAL, 1969. 53.4 1.1 14.4

1960 47.2 1.0 14.4 ( 6.8) 4.1 5.1 28.2 ( 9.0) 100.0

1965 44.5 1.0 14.0 ( 6.4) 3.9 5.3 31.3 ( 9-5) 100.0

1969 42.2 1.0 13.8 ( 6.1) 4.5 5.5 33.0 (10.1) 100.0

(

7.5)

3.8 4.2 23.1 ( 7.8) 100.0

b) Growth of Employment by Sectors and Population Growth (yearly rates of growth) Employment Growth 1950-60 1960-69 Agriculture Manufacturing (artisan) Mining Construction Basic Services Other Services Source: CEPAL, 1968. 1.3 2.6 (l15) 2.0 3.2 4.6 4.7 1.5 2.3 (1.6) 2.2 4.0 3.4 4.6 Total Urban Rural Population Growth 1950-60 1960-69 2.8 4.8 1.4 2.9 4.4 1.4

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA

a industryalreadyrepresented significantproportionof GDP in the earlierdecadesof the century.'8However, as mentioned earlier, these industriesconsisted to a large extentof smallworkshops;in 1950 still over half of the work force in manufacturing of was engagedin artisan-type activities (see Table 2a). By the Sixties, industryhad become the dominantsector in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile. The annual ratesof growth of varioussectorsshown in Table 1 indicatethe extent to which industrywas the pace setterin the post-WorldWar II decades.We shall commentlater on the othertables.
CRITIQUES OF ISI

Let us now turn to the variouscritiqueswhich have been made of LatinAmerican ISI. The critics can be divided into two groups which I shall designateas the are critics."Although some arguments common "marketcritics"and the "structural similarityof the views to both sets of critics,there is a certainphilosophic-analytical within eachcampwhich seemto justifythe divisionI havemade.
a) The Market Critics

way Many economistsin this categoryview LatinAmerica'sISI as an inefficient econoThe more conservative of using resourcesto develop the region's countries.'9 mists believe that since world productioncan be best be maximizedby having each country (or area of the world) specialize in the sectors where it has the greatest comparativeadvantage,Latin America should have continued to specialize in the
TABLE 3

a) Real Rate of Growth (annual) by Sectors for Latin America and Selected Countries 1955-60 1960-65 1955-60 1960-65 Latin America Argentina 2.1 4.8 -0.4 Agriculture 2.7 4.1 5.6 3.8 Manufacturing 6.6 4.2 2.0 Construction 5.9 4.3 Mexico Chile 3.9 3.1 3.0 Agriculture 2.3 8.1 3.2 8.0 6.7 Manufacturing Construction 1.4 5.9 4.6 8.1 Source: Naciones Unidas, Estudio economico de America Latina, 1965. 1955-60 1960-65 Brazil 6.9 3.7 4.9 10.3 2.8 7.2 Colombia 3.0 3.5 5.9 6.1 1.9 -0.2

b) Latin America: Growth Rates of the Total Gross Domestic Product and of Industrial Product (Annual Cumulative Rates) Total Product Industrial Product 6.8 5.0 1940-50 6.3 4.7 1950-60 5.4 4.5 1960-68 Source: United Nations, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, Second Half of 1969.
101

Review LatinAmericanResearch
TABLE 4

a) Growth of Urban Population and Industrial Employment (Average Annual Rates of Growth: 1950-60) Industrial Employment Urban Population 1.7 3.0 Argentina 2.6 6.5 Brazil 4.8 5.6 Mexico Source: Table in Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, p. 84. b) Growth of Industrial Product and Industrial Employment (Annual Growth Rates: 1950-68) Industrial Employment Industrial Product 2.2 4.5 Argentina 2.2 7.3 Brazil 2.4 6.2 Colombia 2.2 4.6 Chile 7.8 3.4 Peru 4.7 6.7 Mexico 2.8 6.0 Latin America Source: Raul Prebisch, Transformaci6n y desarrollo: la gran tarea de Ame'ricaLatina, (Washington, D.C., 1970), p. 45.

productionof primaryproducts.This specializationwould have maximizedworld outputand madepossiblea higher incomelevel in all partsof the world. Becauseof the declining share of food and primaryproductsin world trade, more moderatecriticsrecognizethe need for some ISI.20 But they criticizethe indispromotionof criminateway in which ISI was carriedon, that is, by across-the-board The LatinAmeriadvantage. industrieswithout regardeven to potentialcomparative in can ISI strategiesare seen as drivestowardsnationalself-sufficiency total disregard divisionof laboralong newerlines. This emphaof the advantages an international of to is sis on autarky seen as prejudicial rapideconomicgrowthfor a numberof reasons. Given smallmarkets,limited capital,and a dearthof skilled manpower,autarkic industrialgrowth leads to the developmentof inefficientand high-cost industries. The situation becomesespeciallypronouncedin industrieshaving high fixed costs. These industriesrequire large-scaleoutput in order to bring costs down to levels prevailingin more advancedindustrialcountries.Outstandingexamplesare the steel and automobileindustrieswhich have been establishedin most of the larger Latin Americancountries.In the case of automobiles,the situationwas worsenedbecause a large numberof these countriespermittedthe establishmentof many firms, thus completelyeliminating the possibilities of economiesof large scale production.In the late Sixties, the annualoutput of carsand trucksin eight Latin Americancountries was 600,000, which was producedby ninety firms (an average of 6,700 per usuallyconfines by firm).21 The situationis well summarized Scitovsky:"Protection to the protectedmanufacturer the domesticmarketand so inhibitsthe exploitationof 102

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA
TABLE 5

a) Latin America's Participation in World Trade (Latin America's Exports as a Per Cent of World Exports) 1960 7.0% 1948-10.9% 1950-10.6% 1964-6.4% 1957- 7.8% 1968-5.0% Source: Regional Integration and the Trade of Latin America, Committee for Economic Development, Jan. 1968; and International Trade, 1968, GAIT. b) Changes in Latin America's Import Coefficients (Value of Imports of Goods and Services as a Per Cent of GDP) 1928 1938 1948-9 1957-8 1962 1960* 1967* 12.1 Argentina 11.2 17.8 5.8 7.1 8.0 6.6 Brazil 6.2 11.3 6.6 5.8 7.8 4.5 5.6Chile 31.2 14.9 11.5 9.5 11.3 15.7 15.7 8.2 Colombia 18.0 11.0 12.2 10.6 8.8 8.8 Mexico 14.2 7.0 6.8 8.5 7.8 7.8 7.8Peru 9.6 16.1 28.1 13.6 19.0 Latin America 10.2 8.7 10.0 9.9 9.9 Source: Joseph Grunwald and Philip Musgrove, Natural Resources in Latin American Development (Baltimore, 1970), p. 20. * CEPAL, 1968. c) Imports as a Percentage of Total Supplies by Categories Consumers' Goods Intermediate Goods Brazil 1949 9.0 25.9 1955 2.9 17.9 1959 1.9 11.7 1964 1.3 6.6 Mexico 1950 2.4 13.2 1955 2.3 n.a. 1960 1.3 10.4 1965 n.a. 9.9 Source: Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, p. 60. Capital Goods 63.7 43.2 32.9 9.8 66.5 63.4 54.9 59.8

economiesof scale, especiallyin small countriesand in industrieswhere scale economies are importantand call for very large-scaleoperations.Moreover,governments anxious to secure the benefits of competitionoften encouragemany firms to enter industryin order to create domestic competitionwhere protectionistpolicies have suspendedforeign competition."The result, however, is contraryto what is aimed for, since such government policy ". . . restricts the scope for economies of scale yet

furtherand often leads to the emergenceof too many firms, each with too small an output capacity,and frequentlywith too small a market to utilize fully even that capacity."22 103

Review LatinAmericanResearch
In the last few years the concept of "effectiveprotection"has been used by numerouseconomiststo analyzedistortionswhich have arisenduringthe ISI process. Nominal tariffratesmeasureonly the percentageby which pricesof protectedgoods exceed their world prices.This amountis also the differenceby which domesticsubprice.The "effective"tariffor rate of protection stitutescan exceed the international ". . . shows the percentageby which the value added at a stage of fabricationin domestic industrycan exceed what this would be in the absence of protection;in other words, it shows by what percentagethe sum of wages, profits,and depreciation allowances,payableby domesticfirmscan, thanksto protection,exceedwhat this sum Thus, if a would be if the same firmswere fully exposed to foreign competition."23 amountof importedinputs on which there is no tariffor productuses a considerable on which the tariffrate is lower than the tariffon the finishedproduct,protectionis higher than is indicatedby the nominal tariff, since the margin available for doindicatedby the tariff.In a numberof mesticvalue addedis largerthan the difference Latin American countriesthe effective tariff on consumergoods was found to be much higher than for intermediateor capitalgoods.24Such high levels of effective protectioneliminateincentivesto increaseproductionefficiencyand make it difficult levels. to to bringthe costof production international The stress on autarky-on maximizing internal vertical industrialintegration (promoting not only final goods production, but also intermediateand capital goods) -impedes growth becauseresourcesare not used in sectorswhere they will produce the highest possible output. Had Latin Americancountriesspecializedin advantage,and exported only a few productswith the greatestpotentialcomparative a large surpluswhile importingother goods, total output availablewould have been higher and these nationswould have grown more rapidlythan they actuallydid. As it happened,autarkywas practicedin each country,and no attemptwas made until the late Sixtiesto at least promoteISI on a regionalbasis;in otherwords, to promote within LatinAmerica. a complementary industrialstructure A study by Baransonof automobileindustriesin developing countries(which includes information on Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) illustrates many of the the development.He contrasts proliferationof automobilefirms problemsof autarkic in developing countrieswith the quest by Europeanproducersfor increasedexports and consolidationwith competitors,both inside and outside their countries,in order are He to keep down unit cost.25 finds that among the main deficiencies ". . . underdeveloped supplier capacities,inadequatequality control systems, and a dearth of qualified techniciansand managers.By creating a 'sellers' market', protectionand Thus, Baransonfound that many import substitutiontend to underminequality."26 stock in open economiesoften must ". . . basicmaterialsthat are consideredstandard higher cost be procuredlocally or speciallyorderedin small batchesat considerably and goods or at inferiorquality.... Lackof uniformityin rawmaterials semi-finished such as castings and forgings createsspecial problemsin milling and machiningto required specifications.In high-volume production, precision and uniformity are built into automated equipment. Developing countries with limited markets are much more dependentupon the very machine labor skills in which they are defi104

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA

cient." Also, consideringthe many parts which go into an automobile,Baranson found that outside plant procurementaveragesabout 60 per cent by value in advancedeconomies,while in countrieslike Mexico and Brazil this factor amountsto only 40 per cent. Such a condition further reducesthe possibility of economiesof As large scale production.27 a result,Baransonfound that factorycosts in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico were about 60 per cent to 150 per cent higher than in the United States.28 Similarproblemswere found in many other industries.A study of the manufactureof heavy electricalequipmentin developing countriesfound that in Argenunused capacity, large inventories because of tina ". . . excessive diversification, import controls, and difficultiesin obtaining outside financeexplain the high price ECLA has also provided numerousillustrationsof the problems dislevel...."29 cussedabove. It found that in 1964, ". . . the paperindustry(excluding newsprint) of had 292 plantsof which only 25 had a capacity 100 tons daily,which is considered the minimumeconomicsize. In the chemicalindustry,too, there are a greatmanyinstancesin which there is a wide gap betweenthe plant sizes most frequentlyfound in countries."30 in the regionand the sizes constructed the industrialized Some economistshave been concernedaboutthe domesticresourcecost involved in the type of ISI which has been promotedin LatinAmerica.They have stressedthe need to calculatefor various industriesthe value of domestic resourcesrequiredto between domesticand save a unit of foreign exchange.The rate of transformation foreign resourcesthus obtained should be comparedto the appropriateexchange is rate.31The higher the formeris over the latter,the greaterpresumably the "waste" of resources;that is, if domestic resourceshad been used for export purposes,the foreign exchangeearnedwould have fetchedmore goods thanthe goods producedby domestically.32 using the resources Policies employed to stimulate industrieshave often been prejudicialto the sector.The allocationof investment functioningof the more traditionalagricultural were availresources(credit) to new industrieshas often meant that a few resources Overvaluedexchangerates,which favored inefficiency. able to increaseagricultural dustriesby providing cheap importedinputs, hurt agricultureby making its goods marketand/or by making it less profitableto less competitiveon the international export agriculturalproducts. Finally, the combinationof higher industrial prices goods, turnedthe internal causedby protectionand by price control of agricultural All productionand termsof trade againstag,,riculture. these factorshurt agricultural exports.Argentinais probablythe outstandingexampleof ISI occurringto the detriexports.33 and mentof agriculture agricultural Criticshave also pointed to the detrimentalresultsof neglecting exportsduring the heydayof ISI. Some stressthe negative effectsof ISI policies on the production and exportationof traditionalgoods, while othersemphasizethe failure to diversify the export structurein accordancewith the changing internal economic structure which ISI brought about. While, as was mentioned earlier,the contributionof industryto GDP becamedominantin the years after World War II, the commodity compositionof LatinAmerica'sexportsremainedalmostunchanged.For example,in 105

Latin American Research Review the late Sixties, over 90 per cent of Argentinaand Brazil's exportsstill consistedof of traditionalprimaryand food products,while about three-quarters Mexico's exports consistedof such products.Until the Sixties, little effortswere made by Latin American countries to stimulate non-traditionalexports. And while in the early Sixties the developmentof the LatinAmericanCommonMarket,the CentralAmeriand rebateson domestictaxes can CommonMarket,the introductionof drawbacks atfor export effortsin some countries(Argentina,Mexico, Colombia) represented exports, the net effects by the late Sixties were tempts to stimulatenon-traditional still slight. The neglect of exports during the ISI period in Latin America, that is, the failure to stimulate traditionalexports and to diversify the export structure,could The original advocatesof ISI had hoped that their policy have seriousconsequences. and would lead LatinAmericancountriesto greaterself-sufficiency would maketheir economies more independentof the vicissitudesof internationaltrade. It appears, however, that there is a lower limit to the import coefficient(import/GDP ratio) for most economies,as becomesclear by examiningTable 5 (b). While ISI was takbut ing place, not only was the import coefficientreduced,34 the commoditycomposition of importschanged.An increasinglylargerproportionof importsconsistedof raw materials,semi-finishedproducts,and capitalgoods. These representedthe inputs of the ISI industrieswhich were not availabledomestically,and were thus the principalreasonfor the increasingdownwardstickinessof the importcoefficient.35 It is thus ironicthat the net resultof ISI has been to place LatinAmericancountries in a new and more dangerousdependencyrelationshipwith the more advanced industrialcountriesthan ever before. In former times, a decline in export receipts a acted as a stimulus to ISI. Under the circumstances, decline in export receiptsnot which, in counterbalanced capitalinflowscan resultin forced importcurtailments by turn, could causean industrialrecession.Such resultshave been experiencedby Arf gentinaand Colombia,andothercountries acethe samedanger. To guardagainstsuch a situation,LatinAmericancountrieswould have to make increasingefforts to diversify exports. Such actions, however, assume that they are market.Consideringthe high cost structureof able to compete in the international obstaclesexportershave many Latin AmericanISI industries,the many bureaucratic goods, faced, and the lack of an adequatecreditmechanismto export manufactured is exportdiversification not an easytask.37 Critics b) Structural Since World War II, most Latin Americancountrieshave experienceda population explosion. Annual populationgrowth for the entire region increasedfrom 1.9 per cent to over 2.8 per cent in the late Fifties and Sixties. During the same period, One may see in migration from the countrysideto the cities increaseddramatically. Table 2 (b) that the urbanpopulationgrowth rate in the post-WorldWar II period was over three times as large as the ruralgrowth rate.The sametable also shows that the rate of labor absorptionin industrywas substantiallysmaller than the rate of growth of urbanpopulation.In Table 2 (a), it is clear that after two decadesof in106

IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA

dustrialization, proportionof the labor force employedin manufacturing the industry in Latin Americaas a whole actuallydeclined somewhat,and that almosthalf of these workerswere still engaged in artisanworkshops. In some of the individual countriesshown, the proportionrose a few points, but verymodestlycompared the to changes in the contributionof industryto GDP. The failure of ISI to create direct employmentopportunitieshas worriedboth "structural" "market" and critics.38 The latter blame the low labor absorptionrate on price distortions.Most countries used certaintypes of subsidiesto capitalin orderto stimulateindustrialization. In a numberof countries,domestic and foreign firms were given special exchange rate privileges to import capital equipment. Development banks gave cheap credit (often at negativereal ratesof interest) to help financeinvestmentin favoredindustries. At the same time, wages in industrywere relativelyhigh becauseof labor legislation which had been introducedin the Thirties and Forties in such countriesas Argentina,Brazil, and Chile. Thus, therewere no incentivesto adoptlabor-intensive techniquesof production.On the contrary, relativeprice structure capitaland the of laborwas suchas to actuallystimulatethe searchfor and adoptionof capital-intensive techniques.39 The structuralcritics of ISI worry about low labor absorptionrates not only becauseof the servicessocialproblemsof urbanunemployment underemployment or which result, but also becauseof their implicationfor income distribution.With an unequal distributionof income, a fiscal system which does not redistributeincome, and a leading growth sector (industry) whose incremental capital/laborratio is high (usually substantiallyhigher than the economy'saverage capital/labor ratio), the tendencywill be for incometo becomeeven more concentrated than before. The evidence availablefor LatinAmericancountriestends to confirmthis trend.40 Becauseof the concentration income, the growth of demand for industrial of productsmaynot be sufficient maintainthe initial ISI momentum.What makesthis to situationworse is the lumpiness of many ISI industries.Because of indivisibilities, many industrieswere forced to build substantially ahead of demand.Thus, the existenceof excesscapacitywhich is not being rapidlyfilled by growing demanddampens the incentiveto invest.41 This situation could, of course, be avoided by various types of redistributive policies of governments-redistributionby income groups, by sectors of the economy, and by regions.Progressive measures tax and/or appropriate wage policies could be used to redistributeincomes among social groups; governmentcredit and fiscal policies could redirect resourcesto neglected sectors (such as agriculture,housing, roadbuilding) and geographical regions. Potential domesticdemandfor industrialproductsexists in most Latin American countriesbecausethe ISI processoccurred an unbalanced in fashion.We have already mentionedthe trends towardsthe concentration income which could be reversed of by appropriate policies and thus resultin considerable demandexpansion.However, therewere otherimbalances. ISI proceeded,suchsectorsas agriculture, income As low housing, transportation,and other infrastructurefacilities were often neglected, threateningcountrieswith severe bottlenecks.In the larger countries, ISI resulted

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LatinAmericanResearch Review in a strong regionalconcentration industryand income, especiallyin Brazil,Mexof ico, and Argentina. Although such regional concentration made sense when taking into accountexternaleconomiesto firms settling close to suppliers,to decent infrastructurefacilities, and to skilled labor supplies, etc.,42it was of a self-reinforcing nature. Increasingregional concentration wealth presentedmany countrieswith of the political need to redistribute income on a regionalbasis.All these forces makeit possibleto generatenew demandthroughgovernmentpolicies.43 Georgescu-Roegen, however, called attentionto a problem which might arise from post-ISI redistribution efforts.44 The profile of the productivestructure which resulted from the ISI process reflectsthe demandprofile which existed at the time when the process was started.This demandprofile was based on a distributionof income which, in most cases, was quite unequal. Effortsto change the distribution of incomein the post-ISIerain orderto achievegreatersocial justice,increaseaggregate demand, diminish inter-sectoral and/or inter-regionalimbalances,will change the demandprofile. Such changescould result in a substantialamountof imbalance or lack of synchronization betweenthe country's productiveand demandprofiles.The degree of such imbalancedepends,of course,on the flexibilityof variousproductive sectors. For example, to what extent can the productivefacilities of the consumer goods and capital goods industriesbe converted from producing luxury goods to producingmass consumption goods? The greaterthe inflexibilityof the country's productivestructure, greaterthe the "structural-lock" dilemmaof the country.Thus, the full use of the existing productive capacitywould imply the necessity for the type of income distributionwhich would produce the requisitedemandprofile, i.e., a very unequal distributionof income.45 The alternative,a more egalitarian distributionof income,might imply considerablecapacity a numberof industries.46 in This "structural lock" dilemma should be set off, however, against the import constraintproblem. It has been claimed that high income inequality encouragesa more import-intensive demandprofile. That is, higher income groups consumetechnically more sophisticatedgoods which have relativelyhigh direct and indirectimport requirements. Thus, although a greater degree of income concentration could avoid a "structural lock" problem,it could lead to stagnationcausedby importconstraints.47
EVALUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE

In my general attitudetowardsthe critiqueswhich I have summarized, fully I subscribe the views of Bergsman Candalin their evaluationof the BrazilianISI to and experience:"Hindsightmakesit easy to point out specificmistakes,even to suggest some modifications policy that clearlywould have avoided the greatestinefficienin cies. It is muchharderto compareactualresultswith those thatmight have comefrom some totallydifferentpolicy that would not have includedindustrialization.48 It is dear that in most, if not all, LatinAmericancountries,industrialization was carriedout on too wide a spectrum,given limited capital and human resourcesand very narrow markets.Also, excessively high effective production did not lead re108

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sourcesinto fields which would have the highest possible potential comparative advantage,and protectiongave a comfortableenough profit margin to all inside the marketto neglect the searchfor greaterefficiency.However, outrightcondemnation of inefficiencies to be qualified.For political reasons,ISI within the context of a has larger Latin AmericanCommonMarketwas not feasible in the immediatepostwar period. A more specializedexport-oriented not only dependedon the possibilities ISI of Latin Americaneconomicintegration,but also on the willingness of the United States and Europe to accept Latin Americanmanufacturedimports. If one admits that an internationaldivision of labor can no longer be based on nineteenthcentury lines (given the relativedecline of primaryproductsin world trade), one has to expect structural changesin both the developing and the developedpartsof the world. For example,one would expect the United Statesand Europeto accepta decline in the textile industryin order to make room for such importsfrom the Third World. Given the unwillingnessto do this, one should temperone's condemnation Latin of Americancountriesfor not being more selective in their choice of industries.49 This does not excuse the proliferationof manyfirmsin small markets(e.g., automobiles) whichproducedunnecessary high costs. Many economistshave the bad habit of generalizing from limited experience and evidence.This is especiallytrue in the ISI discussions.The developmentof an integratedindustrialstructuremight not make much sense in a small countrylike Chile, while it does make some sense in a countrylike Brazil. Although an elegant argumentabout industrialization having been promoted at the expense of agriculture can be made with empiricalevidence from Argentina, it would be difficultto apply this argumentto the Braziliancase. Coffee output was not sacrificedfor the sake of industrialization.50 The explanationof the labor-absorption problem in terms of factor price distortion is based on good deductivereasoningin economictheory, but there is little empirical evidence to back the explanation. In some industries the technological choices are limited.51In most Latin Americanautomobileindustriesthe equipment installed was second hand and thus the assemblyline operationsare technologically substantially behind the more automated plants in Europeand the United States.The equipmentin most of LatinAmerica'stextile industriesis so old thatvariousmissions have recommendeda thoroughgoingmodernizationin order to make these industries profitableand competitive.There exists, of course, the possibility of placing greater efforts in discovering more labor-intensivetechniques, which might be achieved if Latin Americancountrieswould increase the resourcesearmarkedfor scientific and technological research.Only 0.5 per cent of Latin America's GNP It goes into such efforts,as comparedto over 3 per cent for the United States.52 remains doubtful,however,whetherprice distortionsexplain LatinAmerica'slaborabsorptionproblem. is Although the argumentabout the necessity for export diversification well taken,the pontification manyeconomistsconcerningthe past neglect of industrial of exports is open to some criticisms.It seems that many forget that a large numberof the key manufacturing industriesof Latin Americawere constructed or with the by 109

Latin American Research Review aid of foreign capital.The chief attractionof the latter was the promiseof a growing protectedmarket.It might have been ratherdifficultto convince firms to establish themselvesin Brazil, Argentina,and other countrieson the conditionthat from the beginning 40 to 50 per cent of the output should be exported.Had there been a genuine interest by domestic and foreign firms to export manufactured goods, I suspectthat the bureaucratic exchangerate obstaclesto such exportsmight have and fallen earlier. It could also be assertedthat the high-cost structureof Latin America'sindustries makesexport diversification difficult.Here, of course,theremight be a dilemma. If the high-cost structureis in large part causedby the narrowmarketwhich raises unit costs, only increasedsales could reducethe latter. And thus we might face an interestingchicken-eggproblem. But even if this could be resolved through subsidies, exports of manufactured goods would still have to face non-pricecompetitive factors such as credit terms, brand names, deliveryterms, marketingorganizations, of etc. Since the importance price vs. non-pricecompetitionin the international trade of manufactured capitalgoods has never been firmlyestablished,it is difficultto and claim that the high cost structureis one of the principalbarriersto export diversification.We have alreadymentionedthe political problemof penetratingEuropean and Americanmarkets. Since most economists'intellectualenergies in the last few decadeshave been spent worryingaboutthe efficientallocationof resources, is naturalthat those econit omists who have devoted their attentionto developing countriesshould have spent most of their time examining and recommending how factors of productionare or should be allocated.Relativelylittle thoughtwas given to the fact that concernabout development should include concern about the developmentof factors of production, not just their allocation.The many "inefficiencies" might preventa developing countryundergoingISI from realizingits maximumcrudegrowth rate in the shortrun. This cost has to be weighed against the modernizationor developmentwhich ISI brings about.53Little work along these lines, that is, on the measurementof changesin the qualityof factorsof production,has been done in LatinAmericaor in otherpartsof the developingworld.
FUTURE POLICIES

By the late Sixties many Latin American countrieswere taking measuresto eliminatesome of the grosserdistortionswhich ISI had broughtalong. In a number of countriesthe tariff level was brought down (e. g., Brazil, Argentina). This was not done to encouragemore imports,but to decreasethe level of effectiveprotection and monopoly profits and thus give an incentive to firms to rationalizetheir operations.Measureswere taken in such countriesas Brazil, Argentina, and Peru to reducethe numberof automobilefirmsand thus encouragelower cost productionby scaleeconomies. There has been a constanteffortby ECLAand the Inter-American Development Bank to push for greater economic integrationvia the Latin American Common Market.It is hoped that such integrationwould increaseand diversifythe exportsof 110

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of individualcountriesand that there would also result a rationalization production throughoutthe continent by making the Latin Americaneconomiesmore complementaryto each other. Besides trade in finishedgoods, attemptshave been made to agreements,"in which there would be a division of encourage"complementation laboralong verticallines (for example,the Chileanautomobileindustryspecializing in the productionof certainparts which would be assembledin Brazil). Unfortunatelythis processhas not made as much progressas its advocateshad hoped. It result in seems that a division of labor within Latin Americawould not necessarily which would be to the liking of individualcountries.55 nationaleconomicstructures The problemof post-ISIstagnation,i.e., the finding of a new dynamicsourceof growth, has preoccupiedmany Latin Americangovernmentsas the decade of the Seventiesopened. In Brazil the governmentof PresidentEmilio Medici has stated of that its principalaim would be to develop a "program social integration"which in would increasethe labor force participation the nationalproduct,to develop the internalfrontierof Amazonia,and to begin a gigantic roadbuilding programwhich would more effectivelylink various regions of the countryand better link farming experiencingsome drasticsocial reforms-land reareasto markets.Peru is currently schemes,etc. The new Mexicanpresident form, programsof worker profit-sharing the has also emphasized need for incomeredistribution. of It remainsto be seen if a redistribution income and a growth of industrial exports will provide the same dynamismto the Latin Americaneconomies as the period of ISI.56 Turning from the demandto the supply side, one should also consider the effects of high populationgrowth rates and social equity policies on the capital/outputratio.The latterwill probablybe much higher than in the past, which meansthat the growthproducedby eachunit of investmentwill be lower than in the past. Thus manyeconomiesin the futuremight have to balancethe conflictingclaims arisingfrom the need for higher savingto attaingrowth ratessimilarto those in the policieswhich tend to socio-economic for ISI days,and the pressures more egalitarian to depressthe capacity save. The employmentproblemwill probablybe the most difficultto cope with. At larger this writing it is doubtful that industrywill be able to absorba substantially proportionof the economicallyactive population. Can the service sector effectively reformsbe institutedin such makeuse of the burgeoningurbanmasses?Can agrarian of modernization necessityhave a manneras to absorbmanpower,or will agricultural Even if there is no to resultin an increasedexpulsionof laborfrom the countryside? in food problem,is there any possible economicstructure Latin Americawhich will effectivelyemploy all those who are employable?Or is the only solution to the dilemma the developmentof a populationpolicy? These are probablythe most interesting questionswhich economistsdoing relevantwork in Latin Americawill have to strugglewith in the Seventies.
NOTES 1. For an interesting analysis of continental Europe's emulation of England's industrial developill

Latin American Research Review ment during the nineteenth century, see David S. Landes, "Technological Change and Development in Western Europe, 1750-1914," In: The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, H. J. Habakkuk and M. Postan, eds., VI: 274-601 (Cambridge, England, 1966). The description Landes gives of the effects of the Napoleonic wars sounds quite familiar to contemporary students of import substitution: "To be sure, war and isolation had some favourable effects. Technology, for example, was stimulated by the need to create substitutes for overseas imports.... The trouble was that not all of these wartime anomalies were ready to disappear once peace returned. For every substitute that died quietly . . . another remained as a vested interest.... Thus mechanized textile manufacture in central Europe, essentially a product of wartime shortages, made a strong effort to convert monetary advantage into permanent privilege, with some success . . ." (373). 2. The importance of trade relations, i.e., division of labor, among industrialized countries is demonstrated by the following data on trade among these countries as a proportion of world trade: 1965-46.8% 1968-49.3% 1960-42.3% 1953-31.7% (Source: Annual Reports of GATT-International Trade.) For perceptive explanations of changes in trade specialization among developed countries, see Raymond Vernon, "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE) (May 1966); Albert 0. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1945; reprinted 1969). 3. Stanley Stein and BarbaraStein, The Colonial Heritage of Latin America (New York,'1970), have succinctly summarized the main obstacles to earlier industrialization in Latin America: Ex-colonies, then and now, cannot readily shed the economic legacy of centuries of colonialism, they cannot rapidly close the gap between backwardness and modernity, between primitive and advanced technology, between low and high levels of income, saving, and investment, between literacy and illiteracy, between obscurantism and enlightenment, beIt is not surprising, then, that Latin America did not tween closed and open society.... begin to modernize its economy through industrialization until a century after independence. Under these circumstances the major consequence of the anti-colonial movements in Latin America between 1810 and 1824, the crushing of the ties of the transatlantic empire led - . . to neo-colonialism. . . . We can see how the economic growth of Latin America through diversification and industrialization could not occur while colonial patterns of production, capital accumulation and investment, income distribution and expenditure survived (136). The backwardness of the Iberian metropolises in capital and technology opened the way to English entrepeneurs. Their textiles and hardware undersold those of their competitors; their capital resources facilitated long-term operations including the payment of high import duties; they extended their credits to Latin American merchants at half the interest rate of their competitors . .. (154). In his research on the economic history of Brazil, Carlos M. Pelaez has found substantial evidence to show that in the period 1898-1945 the effects of coffee and monetary policies were more to blame for the retardation of industrialization than the neo-colonial influence of European countries and the U.S. 4. Warren Dean, The Industrialization of Sdo Paulo, 1880-1945 (Austin, Texas, 1969); Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, Essays on the Economic History of the Argentine Republic. chs. 1-3 (New Haven, 1970); Clark W. Reynolds, The Mexican Economy: Twentieth Century Structure and Growth, ch. 5 (New Haven, 1970). 5. Dean, Industrialization, ch. 5; Diaz-Alejandro, Essays, ch. 4.

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IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA 6. Comisi6n Economica para la America Latina de los Naciones Unidas (CEPAL), El proceso de industrializacio'nen America Latina, 14-17 (New York, 1965). 7. For some case studies, see: Diaz-Alejandro, Essays, chs. 1-3; Celso Furtado, The Economic Growth of Brazil, chs. 30 and 31 (Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1963); Werner Baer, Industrialization and Economic Development in Brazil, ch. 2 (Homewood, Illinois, 1965); Carlos M. Pelaez, "Acerca de politica governamental, da grande depressao e da industrializafao do Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia (RBE) (1969); Markos Mamalakis, Growth and Structure of the Chilean Economy: 1840-1968, chs. 2 and 6 (forthcoming); Oscar E. Muiioz, "An Essay on the Process of Industrialization in Chile since 1914," Yale Economic Essays (1968); CEPAL, El proceso de industrializacion .. ., 17-37. 8. Reviewing the experience of Argentina during the first three decades of the twentieth century, Diaz-Alejandro, Essays, ch. 3, states that, ". . . contrasted with later periods, the growth of manufacturing during 1900-29 may be explained primarily by the expansion of exports and domestic demand, with a relatively small contribution by import substitution." 9. In the case of Brazil this alteration has been documented in two studies: Annibal V. Villela, Fontes de crescimento da economia Brasileira (mimeographed, 1970) I: 406 and II: 218; Carlos M. Pelaez, "A balansa comercial, a grande depressao e a industrilizasao Brasileira," RBE (1968), 15-47. 10. Baer, The Development of the Brazilian Steel Industry, ch. 4 (Nashville, Tennessee, 1969); Pelaez, "O desenvolvimento da industria do afo no Brasil," RBE (1970) 191-217; Nathaniel H. Leff, The Brazilian Capital Goods Industry, 1929-1964, 8-20 (Cambridge, Mass., 1968). According to Don Huddle's calculations, "Postwar Brazilian Industrialization: Growth Patterns, Inflation, and Sources of Stagnation," In: The Shaping of Modern Brazil, Eric N. Baklanoff, ed., 96 (Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 1969), ISI in Brazil ". . . had already been carried very far by 1939. Thus continued across the board import substitution between 1939 and 1963 was necessarily somewhat limited." 11. In a quantitative analysis of five Latin American countries, Henry J. Bruton "Productivity Growth in Latin America," American Economic Review (AER), 57: 1110 (1967), found that as a result of being forced to use domestic capacity to the fullest extent, firms had to find ways to use their existing capital stock with increasing effectiveness. Improvisation and adaptation of existing equipment were common, and one can find many examples of ingeniously and indigenously devised machines producing various items for household and business use.... The war then not only provided 'protection' from foreign competition, but also helped to create an environment within which entrepreneurs had incentives to use available resources with increasing effectiveness." 12. The initial position of the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) was contained in The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems (United Nations, 1950); and an elaboration of these views appeared in Raul Prebisch's "Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries," AER, 49: 251-273 (1959). There exists a vast literature attacking and defending the Prebisch-ECLAposition. See, for instance: Baer, "The Economics of Prebisch and ECLA," Economic Development and Cultural Change (EDCC) 10: 169182 (1962); June Flanders, "Prebisch on Protectionism: An Evaluation," Economic Journal (EJ) 74: 305-326 (1964); Gottfried Haberler, "Terms of Trade and Economic Development," In: Economic Development for Latin America, Howard S. Ellis and Henry C. Wallich, eds., 275-297 (New York, 1961). An ECLA-type model which avoids the controversial terms of trade arguments, yet builds a similar case for industrialization can be found in Dudley Seers, "A Model of Comparative Rates of Growth in the World Economy," EJ 62: 45-78 (1962).

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13. See, for example, the projections for world trade found in Bela Belassa, Trade Prospects for Developing Countries (Homewood, Ill., 1964) and UNCTAD, Trade Prospects and Capital Needs of Developing Countries (New York, 1968). 14. For policies followed in individual countries, see Diaz-Alejandro, Essays; Baer, Industrialization, ch. 3; Joel Bergsman, Brazil, Industrialization and Trade Policies, chs. 3 and 4 (New York, 1970); Reynolds, The Mexican Economy, ch. 7; Timothy King, Mexico: Industrialization and Trade Policies Since 1940, chs. 3-5 (New York, 1970); Mamalakis, Growth and Structure, chs. 6 and 7 (forthcoming); CEPAL, El proceso de industrializacion . .. ,ch. III. 15. David Felix, "Monetarists, Structuralists, and Import-Substituting Industrialization: A Critical Appraisal," In: Inflation and Growth in Latin America, Werner Baer and Isaac Kerstenetzky, eds., 383 (Homewood, 1964; 2nd printing, New Haven, 1970). 16. Albert 0. Hirschman, "The Political Economy of Import-Substituting Industrialization in Latin America," QJE, 82: 17-24 (1968). 17. For example, all automobile plants were built and run by foreign firms. Almost all government steel mills in Latin America were built with foreign financing and planned and constructed under the supervision of foreign consulting firms. For some interesting comparative data on the macroeconomic impact of foreign financing, see I. Little, T. Scitovsky, and M. Scott, Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries: A Comparative Study, 47-59 (New York, 1970). 18. It has been argued by a number of economists that even if measured in constant prices, taking a base year where relative prices of manufactured goods were not at their highest, the contribution of manufacturing is exaggerated. Some have tried to measure the contribution of the sector by valuing manufactured products at world prices. But even such deflation of industry's contributions do not erase the basic trends. Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, 7. 19. The region's countries vary substantially as to potential for ISI. However, most of the market critics whose views are summarized here have dealt with the larger Latin American countries. 20. The growth of manufactures as a proportion of world trade was quite spectacular in the forty years, 1928-68, as shown by the following data: 1928-39%o; 1938-40%o; 1953-45%; 1960-54%; 1968-67%. Richard N. Cooper, The Economics of Interdependence (New York, 1968); GATT, International Trade 1968. It should also be noted that in the post-World War II period, Third World countries have drastically lost their shares in world trade. Their share of world exports declined from 34 per cent in 1950 to 19 per cent in 1968; see various annual reports of GATT, International Trade. Finally, it should be noted in Table 5(a) that in the twenty year period 1948-68, Latin America's share in world trade declined from 10.9 per cent to 5.0 per cent. 21. Tibor Scitovsky, "Prospects for Latin American Industrialization within the Framework of Economic Integration," In: The Process of Industrialization in Latin America, 43 (Washington, D.C., 1969). The average number might be somewhat misleading. For example, in Brazil, Volkswagen produces more than half the passenger cars, thus benefitting more from scale economies than most other plants. See Bergsman, Brazil, 120-130. For an interesting case study of the Chilean automobile industry, which was characterized by a small market being served by twenty firms operating more than one thousand miles away from the principal market, see Leland J. Johnson, "Problems of Import Substitution: The Chilean Automobile Industry," EDCC 15: 202-216 (1967). 22. Scitovsky, "Prospects," 42.

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IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA 23. Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, 39. 24. It has been estimated that effective protection for manufactured products in Brazil in 1966 was 254 percent as compared with product protection of 99 percent. Bergsman, Brazil, 42; for other countries see Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, 174. 25. Jack Baranson, Automotive Industries in Developing Countries, 15 (Baltimore, 1969). 26. Baranson, Automotive Industries, 22. 27. Baranson, Automotive Industries, 2 5-26. 28. Baranson, Automotive Industries, 28. He also found that Brazil's costs as compared to those of Argentina are lower because the former's market is larger, the industry is older, and many producers have written off capital costs for machines which are still in good working order, and Brazilians have had a longer period to develop suppliers, improve quality, and reduce costs (39). It is of interest to mention some specific numbers.cited by Baranson: he found that in Argentina materials and parts averaged 3.3 times the U.S. cost level; administrative and selling costs are twice as high in Mexico as in the U.S.; special tooling amortization is almost three times as expensive per vehicle in Brazil and Mexico as in the U.S. (39). A yet unpublished study of the Brazilian automobile industry by Jose Almeida, of the Fundacao Getiulio Vargas, presents similar conclusions. One of the principal reasons for the high cost of Brazilian automobiles was found to be the extreme autarky of the industry. The domestic content of Brazilian vehicles amounts to 98 percent. Decreasing this content to a level of 50 percent to 60 percent would substantially lower costs. 29. Ayhan Cilingiroglu, Manufacture of Heavy Electrical Equipment in Developing Countries, 31 (Baltimore, 1969). 30. "Industrial Development in Latin America," Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 13 (1969). 31. For a thorough discussion of problems in defining the appropriate exchange rate and the domestic resource cost, see William F. Steel, "Import Substitution Policy in Ghana in the 1960's," 53-80 (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, MIT, 1970). 32. The theoretical literature on this topic is rather lengthy. See, for instance, Bela Balassa and Daniel M. Schydlowsky, "Effective Tariffs, Domestic Cost of Foreign Exchange, and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate," The Journal of Political Economy (JPE), 76: 348-360 (1968). For an application of such a criterion to measure the efficiency of an industry in Latin America, see Baer, Brazilian Steel Industry, 146-15 1. 33. See Diaz-Alejandro, Essays, ch. 6; also, "An Interpretation of Argentine Economic Growth Since 1930," Part I, Journal of Development Studies (JDS), 3: 25-28 (1966). 34. A recent article by Samuel A. Morley and Gordon W. Smith, "On the Measurement of Import Substitution," AER, 60: 728-735 (1970), challenges the usual measurements of import substitution. These underestimate ISI if imports are replaced without induced rises in imported inputs. The authors develop a formula for appropriate corrections. 35. This situation has been well described by David Felix, "The Dilemma of Import Substitution-Argentina," In: Development Policy: Theory and Practice, Gustav F. Papanek, ed., 60-61 (Cambridge, Mass., 1968): "As the consumer-goods phase of ISI is succeeded by a predominantly capital- and intermediate-goods phase, three sets of forces close in on the strategy. The import mix shifts predominantly to one of fuels, industrial materials, essential food-stuffs, and capital goods required by the industrial sector. The capital intensity of import-substituting projects rises, resulting in a rising import content of investment and

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Latin American Research Review causing the level of investment to be more severely constrained by the capacity to import. The projects tend to require increasingly large markets in order to reach minimum efficient scale, so that the ability of ISI to induce investment is progressively weakened by the thin domestic markets of even the larger Latin American countries." See also Diaz-Alejandro, "On the Import Intensity of Import Substitution," Kyklos, 18: 495-511 (1965), who stresses the fact that rapid ISI raises income before investments mature, resulting in an increase in imports. See also Maria Conceicao Tavares, "Auge y declinacion del proceso de substitucion de importaciones en el Brasil," Boletin Econo'mico de America Latina, 9: 1-59 (1964). 36. John Sheahan, "Imports, Investment, and Growth-Colombia," In: Development Policy: Theory and Practice, 97-99. See also Jaroslav Vanek, Estimating Foreign Resource Needs for Economic Development (New York, 1967). For Argentina, see Diaz-Alejandro, Essays, ch. 7. 37. Leff, "Export Stagnation and Autarkic Development in Brazil," QJE, 81: 286-301 (1967); Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, ch. 7. 38. One should, of course, take into account the fact that the industrial growth stimulates both direct and indirect emnployment. Thus, not all employment growth in the service sector can be looked upon as residual; i.e., a sector into which people go if they cannot find employment in industry. Many government financial and commercial services grow in a fashion complementary to industry. It is obvious, however, that the extremely high rates of growth of employment in services in Latin America reflects a large proportion of residual labor absorption. Interesting analyses and data on employment in Latin America can be found in Raul Prebisch, Transformacion y desarrollo: la gran tarea de America Latina (Washington, D.C., 1970); also in ILO, Hacia el pleno empleo: un programa para Colombia (Geneva, 1970). 39. Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, ch. 3; Henry J. Bruton, "The Import Substitution Strategy of Economic Development: A Survey of Findings," 17 (Mimeographed Research Memorandum No. 27, Williams College, Williamstown, Mass., 1969); Baer and Michel Herve, "Employment and Industrialization in Developing Countries," QJE, 80: 88107 (1966); Benjamin Cohen and Nathaniel Leff, "Employment and Industrialization: Comment," QJE, 81: 162-164 (1967); Baer and Herv6, "Employment and Industrialization: Reply," QJE, 81: 532-533 (1967). 40. Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, 41-47; W. Baer and Andrea Maneschi, "Import-Substitution, Stagnation and Structural Change: An Interpretation of the Brazilian Case," JDA, 5: 177-192 (1971); King, Mexico: Industrialization, 26-32; Naciones Unidas, El desarrollo economicoay la distribucion del ingreso en la Argentina (New York, 1968); ILO, Hacia el pleno empleo, ch. 10. 41. Although capacity utilization data are rare because of capacity measurement difficulties, some evidence of underutilization can be found in the following sources: Baer and Maneschi, "Import Substitution," and "Industrial Development in Latin America," Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 14: 2: 14-15 (1969); Little, Scitovsky, and Scott, Industry and Trade, 93-99; Baer, The Development of the Brazilian Steel Industry, 89. 42. For a discussion of regional imbalances in the Brazilian context, see Baer, Industrialization, 163-185. 43. For a thorough survey and analysis of the potential effect of income redistribution in Latin America, see William R. Cline, The Potential Effect of Income Redistribution on Economic Growth in Six Latin American Countries (mimeographed; Discussion Paper No. 13, Research Program in Economic Development, Princeton, N.J., 1970).

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IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN LATIN AMERICA 44. Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen first raised this question in an article published in Brazil, "InflaJco estrutural e o crescimento economico," RBE, 22: 5-14 (1968); since then he has published an expanded version in English: "StructuralInflation-Lock and Balanced Growth," Economies et Sociee's, Cahier de L'I.S.E.A., Tome IV: 3 (Geneva, 1970). An interesting model of growth and stagnation based on Georgescu-Roegen's original idea is contained in Francisco Lopes, "Subsidios a formulasao de um modelo de desenvolvimento e estagnaiao no Brasil," RBE, 23: 59-78 (1969). 45. An alternative might be a change in the demand profile of lower income groups. A good example of this was the boom in automobile sales in Brazil in the late Sixties. This boom was mainly due to the rise of "consorcios." This is an ingenious device which was invented to create credit for buying cars. Under a typical scheme, a group of, say, 24 people get together to buy a Volkswagen. Each member of the consorcio agrees to pay every month 1/24th of the price of a VW into a kitty and every month a VW is bought. Payments are readjustable for inflationary rates. Thus, each month one member gets a VW, but everyone continues to pay for 24 months, until everyone has received his VW. The doubt which can be raised about this scheme is whether the opportunity cost to the economy is not too great. People buying cars will forego buying many other goods (often wage goods) and many will forego saving. 46. It could be claimed that the "structural lock" problem is not important since imbalances between the demand and productive profiles are eliminated over time as investment takes place in shortage areas. However, given the huge amounts of excess productive capacity which was referred to earlier, this problem cannot be disregarded on the basis of long-run adjustments. 47. I would like to thank David Felix for pointing this out. Also see his article "The Dilemma of Import Substitution-Argentina," 65-70. 48. Joel Bergsman and Arthur Candal, "Industrialization: Past Success and Future Problems," In: The Economy of Brazil, Howard S. Ellis, ed., 47 (Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1969). 49. Given their many special economic and political circumstances, it is doubtful whether the examples of Taiwan, Korea, or Hong Kong can be taken as proofs that the Latin American economies were not in a dilemma. 50. Erroneous price policies in the late Forties when Brazil still dominated the world coffee market had nothing to do with the argument that agriculture was sacrificed. A valid argument might be that Brazil neglected the use of resources to invest in a new type of agriculture which would diversify agricultural exports. Although this would have been a correct policy to follow, it would not have been a substitute for ISI. 51. Baer, The Development of the Brazilian Steel Industry, ch. 2. 52. "Industrial Development in Latin America," Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 14: 12 (1969). In an interesting study of Peruvian industries, Christopher Clague found that labor intensive industries are less efficient than capital intensive ones. He finds this discouraging since labor intensive industries produce more easily exportable products. "The Determinants of Efficiency in Manufacturing Industries in an Underdeveloped Country," EDCC, 18: 188205 (1970). 53. I have developed this point in "Sobre os usos e abusos da teoria economica," RBE, 22: 7283 (1968). 54. For a discussion of such "complementation agreements" in Latin America, see GAIT, International Trade 1968, 63-74 (Geneva, 1969).

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Review LatinAmericanResearch
55. A good critical appraisal of Latin American integration possibilities can be found in Keith Griffin, Underdevelopment in Spanish America, ch. VI (Cambridge, Mass., 1970). The best and most extensive empirical work on specialization possibilities within a Latin American common market has been done by a group of Latin American research institutes (collectively known as ECIEL) led by Joseph Grunwald of The Brookings Institution. Results were presented at a Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research by Joseph Grunwald and Jorge Salazar under the title, "Economic Integration, and Price and Value Comparisons in Latin America" and published in International Comparisons of Prices and Real Income: Studies in Income and Wealth, D. J. Daley, ed. (N.Y., 1972). 56. In his interesting study, "The Potential Effect of Income Redistribution on Economic Growth in Six Latin American Countries" 95 (mimeographed, Discussion Paper No. 13, Princeton, 1970), William Cline found that "Using the estimated income distributions and consumption function estimates from family budget studies, simulation exercises suggested that for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela income redistributions toward equality of the level found in Britain would cost on the order of 1% annual growth in GNP... BIBLIOGRAPHY
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