...Forecasting with Indices Beverly Morris University of Phoenix Quantitative Reasoning for Business 501 Dr. Albert Smothers September 27, 2012 Summer Historical Inventory Data To determine the index to start the process the average of the first year need to be identified. Then, to identify the index the monthly average of the four years is dividing the average. The formula that can be used to determine the forecast is formula: y = 2756.6x +35458=49241. Multiply the monthly index by 49241 to determine the 5th year forecast. Summer Historical Inventory Data | | | | | | Typical Seasonal Demand for Summer Highs | | | | | Actual Demands (in units) | | | | | | | Month | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Avg. | Index | Forecast (Y5) | | 1 | 18,000 | 45,100 | 59,800 | 35,500 | 39,600 | 94 | 46,042 | | 2 | 19,800 | 46,530 | 30,740 | 51,250 | 37,080 | 87 | 43,113 | | 3 | 15,700 | 22,100 | 47,800 | 34,400 | 30,000 | 70 | 34,880 | | 4 | 53,600 | 41,350 | 73,890 | 68,000 | 59,210 | 139 | 68,840 | | 5 | 83,200 | 46,000 | 60,200 | 68,100 | 64,375 | 152 | 74,847 | | 6 | 72,900 | 41,800 | 55,200 | 61,100 | 57,750 | 136 | 67,146 | | 7 | 55,200 | 39,800 | 32,180 | 62,300 | 47,370 | 111 | 55,078 | | 8 | 57,350 | 64,100 | 38,600 | 66,500 | 56,638 | 133 | 65,851 | | 9 | 15,400 | 47,600 | 25,020 | 31,400 | 29,855 | 70 | 34,713 | | 10 | 27,700 | 43,050 | 51,300 | 36,500 | 39,638 | 94 | 46...
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...Dow Jones Industrial AverageTM Stated Objective To represent large and well-known U.S. companies. Covers all industries with the exception of Transportation and Utilities. Key Features — The index is maintained by the Averages Committee. — Components are added and deleted on an as-needed basis. For the sake of continuity, such changes are rare, and typically occur following corporate acquisitions or other significant changes in a component company's core business. When one component is replaced, all of them are reviewed. — While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. Maintaining adequate sector representation within the index is also a consideration in the selection process. — The index is price weighted. — The Dow Jones Industrial AverageTM was first calculated on May 26, 1896. Descriptive Statistics Market Capitalization (Billions) ComponentCurrency Number | Float-Full Adjusted Mean Median Largest Smallest | USD 30 | 5,016.6 4,769.7 159.0 137.8 412.4 34.2 | Data calculated as of end of October, 2014. Mean, median, largest component and smallest component values are based on float-adjusted market capitalization. Performance ...
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...Topic 2 : Should retail investors invest in index-tracker funds rather than actively-managed funds? Topic 2 : Should retail investors invest in index-tracker funds rather than actively-managed funds In recent years, investment has been interested by the majority of people more than in the past as basically everyone would like generate income and try to find the ways that can actually make money. Not only do investors need to know more knowledge that how to make money investing, but also they have to update news which has information about money’s movement. Moreover, the majority of investors is supposed to follow international news and monitor that show their money in real time. In today’s world, there are many capital markets for investing because if the number of investors increases, it will make the number of investment products in the capital market increased. Thus, investors in these days are supposed to have the way in order to choose which stock will make them make the most investment return. Then, there are two investing’s types in funds for retail investors in order to invest between index- tracker funds and actively- managed funds and most investors are supposed to understand and know which one they have to use. This essay will be discussed investing in index-tracker funds and actively-managed funds that follow by pros and cons, and also provide knowledge that why are retail investors supposed to put their money in index-tracker funds rather than in actively-managed...
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...Investigating the index of refraction of a semicircular acrylic plastic block | A1 | A2 | A3 | EX | | | | A | | | | EV | | | | Name: _Felix Koay_ Date: March 5th, 2015 Topic: 4.3 Design In this experiment you will investigate the relationship between the angle of incidence and the angle of refraction of a ray of light when it passes through a semicircular piece of acrylic. An initial hypothesis would suggest that as you increase the angle of incidence, the angle of refraction would also increase, but certainty not proportionally. During the physics lessons you learnt the relationship between the angle of incidence θi and the angle of refraction θr is given by Snell’s law, which states that Where n1 is the refractive index of the medium from where the ray of light enters a different medium and n2 is the refractive index of that different medium. (Usually called medium 1 and medium 2). In order to verify this law experimentally, you could design an experiment based on that relationship. Selecting the right variables would allow to plot a graph of sin θr against sinθi and the gradient of the line would allow you to determine the value of the index of refraction of the piece of glass. The next sketch graph justifies this statement. With the aid of the gradient, you could determine an experimental value of index of refraction of the acrylic block. This result could be compared...
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...STATISTICS ASSIGNMENT-I What methods of Index Number calculation is used to calculate Cost of Living Index ? Introduction: An INDEX NUMBER measures the relative change in price, quantity, value, or some other item of interest from one time period to another. Classification of index numbers: According to purpose for which index numbers are used are classified as below. i) Price index number ii) Quality index number iii) Value index number iv) Special purpose index number Price index number: Price index number measures the changes in the price level of one commodity or group of commodities between two points of time or two areas. Ex: Wholesale price index numbers, Retail price index numbers, Consumer price index numbers. Quantity index number: Quantity index numbers measures the changes in the volume of production, sales, etc in different sectors of economy with respect to time period or space. Note: Price and Quantity index numbers are called market index numbers. Methods of constructing index numbers: A large number of formulae have been derived for constructing index numbers. They can be 1) Unweighted indices a) Simple aggregative method b) Simple average of relatives. 2) Weighted indices a) Weighted aggregative method b) Weighted average of relatives Weighted index is preferred over unweighted index as rational weights are assigned to various items in explicit fashion. Below are the different...
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...INDEX FUNDS.. FM n FS PROJECT Active and Passive Management Before we get into the details of index funds, it's important to understand the two different styles of mutual-fund management: passive and active. Most mutual funds fit under the active management category. Active management involves the art of stock picking and market timing. This means the fund manager will put his/her skills to the test trying to pick securities that will perform better than the market. Because actively managed funds require more hands-on research and because they experience a higher volume of trading, their expenses are higher. Passively managed funds, on the other hand, do not attempt to beat the market. A passive strategy instead seeks to match the risk and return of the stock market or a segment of it. You can think of passive management as the buy-and-hold approach to money management. Defn- An index fund a collective investment scheme that aims to replicate the movements of an index of a specific financial market, or a set of rules of ownership that are held constant, regardless of market condition. An index fund is a mutual fund which merely invests in the securities in the index. It is passive, in the sense that absolutely no effort is made to produce results better than the index. HISTORY: Index funds haven't been around forever -- how did they come about? Long ago, there was a student at the University of Chicago who studied modern ideas of finance taught...
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...Qus : What methods of Index Number calculation is used to calculate Cost of Living Index (CLI). What methods of Index Number calculation is used to calculate Cost of Living Index (CLI). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cost of Living Index is a theoretical price index ,or general price index, showing the difference between the living cost between cities. The cost of living for the base city is expressed as 100 , The cost of living in the destination is then indexed against this number .The major cities in India are having cost of living index below the reference cities ,like Delhi having 63 ,Bangalore 62 and Kolkata having 42 in the list. The interpretation is like ,if a city is having CLI as 120 it is 20% more expensive than the base city. So ,on a broader note CLI gives a picture as to how costly a city is compared to other cities. Items contributing to consumer price index are generally: * Food * Clothing * Fuel and Lighting * Housing * Miscellaneous. The Cost of living is indexed because : * CLI numbers are used for adjustment of dearness allowance to maintain the same standard of living. * It helps in framing suitable policies . * It also reveals trends and tendencies . * The numbers are useful in deflating. * Its helps in measuring purchasing power of money. The consumer price index (CPI) is the primary measure of the...
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...Consumer Price Index EC 601 – Fall 2010 December 3, 2010 Consumer Price Index (CPI) According to Mankiw the Consumer Price Index is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. The Department of Labor’s subordinate branch the Bureau of Labor who is in charge of providing the Consumer Price Index of states that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a “market basket” of consumer goods and services. Some background into how the Consumer Price Index came about. The Consumer Price Index was initiated during World War I, when rapid increases in prices, particularly in shipbuilding centers, made an index essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments in wages ("United states consumer," n.d.). To provide appropriate weighting patterns for the index, so that it would reflect the relative importance of goods and services purchased in 92 industrial centers in 1917-1919("United states consumer," n.d.). Periodic collections of prices were started, and, in 1919, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publication of separate indexes for 32 cities ("United states consumer," n.d.). Regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city average began in 1921, and indexes were estimated back to 1913 using records of food prices ("United states consumer," n.d.). Because people's buying habits had changed substantially, a new study was made covering expenditures...
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...Research Tasks Week One The KOF Index of Globalization, provided by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, measures globalization on economic, social, and political dimensions. Provide a brief description of this index and its ranking. Specifically, what factors are considered in calculating the index? Find the most recent ranking, and identify the 10 countries with the lowest and highest Globalization Index. Do you notice any trends or similarities among the countries listed? Chapter 1, globalEdge Question 2 Week Two Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a comparative assessment of a country's integrity performance. Provide a description of this index and its ranking. Using the most recent data, identify the five countries with the lowest and the five with the highest CPI scores according to this index. Do you see any trends between CPI scores and the level of economic and social development of a country? Chapter 7, globalEdge Question 2 Week Three A.T. Kearney's annual Global Services Location Index (GSLI) evaluates the attractiveness of countries as an offshore destination. Locate the most recent study, and prepare a short report addressing the following questions: How is the Global Services Location Index calculated? According to the ranking, which 10 countries are the best destinations for providing outsourcing activities? Why do you think these countries are attractive as potential location for offshore services? Chapter 2, globalEdge Question...
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...DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES IIT DELHI Security Analysis & Portfolio Management – SML 873 Self Study Component – II (methodologies adopted across the globe for calculating Stock Index) By: Echo Group Russian Trading System (RTS) Stock Exchange 1. Eligibility Factors 2.1. Market Capitalization 2.2.1. A stock’s weight in an index is determined by the float-adjusted market capitalization of the stock 2.2.2. Each company’s market capitalization is capped at 15% in the RTSI and RTS2, and at 25% in the RTS Sector Indices, to restrict the weight of any one company dominating the entire index. 2.2. Liquidity: Securities that do not meet the following criteria over the three month period preceding the date of the revision are excluded from the index eligibility list 2.3.3. The average number of companies-brokers that submitted the “bid” and “ask” quotes for the security at the end of the trading session is at least two. 2.3.4. 2. The average spread between the “ask” and the “bid” prices at the end of the trading session is less than or equal to 15%, as compared to the buying price. 2.3.5. 3. The security should have two-sided quotes in the trading system at the end of the trading session for at least 90% of the trading days of a given period. 2.3.6. 4. The daily average number of transactions in this security is greater than or equal to 0.5. 2.3.7. 5...
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...while Sri Lanka strides ahead Over the past three decades, India has made good progress on the human development index (HDI), says the Human Development Report 2013, released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). However, India’s rank out of 187 countries is no better than last year’s. With a HDI value of 0.554 and a rank of 136 among 187 countries, which it shares with Equatorial Guinea, India is placed in the “medium development” category. There has been steady improvement in its HDI value, which was 0.345 in 1980. In 1950, Brazil, China and India together represented 10 per cent of the world economy, while the six traditional economic leaders of the North accounted for more than half. According to projections in the report, by 2050, Brazil, China and India will together account for 40 per cent of global output, far surpassing the projected combined production of today’s Group of Seven bloc. | | | HDI is a composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and income indices used to rank countries in four tiers of human development. Since 2011, the UNDP report has included an inequality adjusted HDI, also known as IHDI, which attempts to include the effects of inequality on human development. The IHDI for India this year is 0.392. High gender inequality The country fails miserably on the front of gender equality. On the gender equality index, with a value of 0.610, India has one of the worst indicators in the medium human development category. For example...
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...Consumer Price index- has absolutely no impact on prices, it will not change prices! Possible reasons for it to be inaccurate: 1. New products and technology- tendency to lag the advantage of a new technology. By the time they start incorporation the price it is already cheaper, but they use the higher price. This can cause a problem. 1. Quality of products changes- You may be getting more for your money. This can be a negative thing to because you could end up paying for things you do not need or want. Ex) Calculator- do you need everything on it, do you know how to use everything on it. 1. Growth in discounting - doesn’t take into consideration things sold at discount prices, it instead indexes them as lower quality goods instead of discounted items. 1. Nonmarket goods- ex) housing markets- rent if renting is better price, buy if buying is better. 1. Substitution effect - The idea that as prices rise (or incomes decrease) consumers will replace more expensive items with less costly alternatives. Conversely, as the wealth of individuals increases, the opposite tends to be true, as lower-priced or inferior commodities are eschewed for more expensive, higher-quality goods and services - this is known as the income effect. Although beneficial to some (i.e. discount retailers), in general, the substitution effect is very negative in nature, as it limits choice. This is true not only for products, but also for services. Examples of the...
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...The UNDP Human Development Report (HDR) for 2011 focuses on the intertwined issues of sustainability and equity. While most countries have achieved substantial development gains since 1970, the 2011 HDR draws attention to evidence that raises questions about the sustainability and distribution of these benefits. Human Development Index: Encouraging Progress Most countries have made great strides in living standards over the past 30 to 40 years. The UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) increased, on average, by 41 percent overall and 60 percent in low HDI countries since 1970. The HDI country ranking is divided into four quartiles. The first quartile, or top 47 countries with the highest HDIs, is labeled “very high human development.” The remaining three quartiles of country groupings are “high human development” countries, “medium human development” countries and “low human development” countries. From 1980 to 2011, average HDI scores increased by 16.1 percent, 20.7 percent, 50.0 percent and 44.3 percent for very high, high, medium and low human development countries, respectively. The table below presents HDI data from the 2011 HDR for a select group of countries from each development category. Green Revolution The Green Revolution in agricultural productivity is one of a number of important factors behind the dramatic rise in living standards. With only a 10 percent increase in cultivated land, agricultural output doubled over the past 50 years. In Asia, the Green...
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...HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) What is the human development index (HDI)? The HDI—human development index—is a summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. Longevity is measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge is measured by a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and standard of living by GDP per capita (PPP US$). For details on how to calculate the HDI, see pages 340–1 Technical Note 1. What is the gender-related development index (GDI)? The GDI—gender-related development index—is a composite indicator that measures the average achievement of a population in the same dimensions as the HDI while adjusting for gender inequalities in the level of achievement in the three basic aspects of human development. It uses the same variables as the HDI, disaggregated by gender. For details on how to calculate the GDI see pages 340, 343-344 and 346 Technical Note 1. What is the gender empowerment measure (GEM)? The GEM— gender empowerment measure—is a composite indicator that captures gender inequality in three key areas: • political participation and decision-making, as measured by women’s and men’s percentage shares of parliamentary seats; • economic participation and decision-making power, as measured by two indicators—women’s and men’s percentage shares of positions as legislators...
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...BMI BMI is a measurement representing the ratio of a person’s body weight to his or her height. It stands for body mass index. It is used to represent the ratio of a person’s body weight to the square of their height. BMI-(kg/m²)=[weight(lb)/height(in)²] metric (lbx703)/height in inches² imperial BMI (175x703)/68²=26.6 (I am using 703 as a converter.) 175x703=123025 68x68=4624 123025/4624=26.6 My BMI falls under the overweight category but I lift weights and I have less than 10% body fat. Daily calorie intake 2500-3000. I have to eat more calories because I work at UPS in the morning lifting packages for 4-6 hours then I go the gym and lift heavy weights for an hour and I do 30 minutes of cardio following. If I didn’t take in the high amount of calories I would have no energy to live my life. Breakfast: protein shake 12 oz mixed with water and a banana 2nd breakfast: bowl of oatmeal 1 cup and a fruit usually an apple or pear After gym protein shake mixed with almond milk 12 oz Lunch: Choice of meat usually chicken or fish but 3 times a month beef. Usually 4-6 oz with a salad 2 cups sprinkles with almonds and a dressing made up of vinegar and olive oil 2nd lunch: Choice of meat chicken or fish 4-6 oz with a starch of rice or potatoes 1 cup with a choice of vegetable 1 cup steamed or sautéed Dinner: Choice of meat chicken or fish 4-6 oz with a starch of rice or potatoes 1 cup with a choice of vegetable 1 cup steamed or sautéed Before bed protein shake 12 oz...
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