...Exercise A.1 : Oil Demand and GDP Relationships Exercise A.1 : Oil Demand and GDP Relationships Regression Statistics | Multiple R | 0.973261851 | R Square | 0.947238631 | Adjusted R Square | 0.946414235 | Standard Error | 611.7650139 | Observations | 66 | | | | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Intercept | -7.962621221 | 83.69853866 | -0.095134531 | 0.924505216 | GDP Data (USD $M) | 0.001155711 | 3.40948E-05 | 33.89703095 | 1.32639E-42 | Table 1. Oil Consumption and GDP GDP regression analysis results Table 1 above shows that 94.7% of the 2010 oil demand of selected countries can be explained by the explanatory variable (2010 GDP growth of those countries). The remaining 5.3% of the oil demand in 2010 is unknown and cannot be explained using the linear regression model Oil demand = 1 + (2*GDP) + Residual. Additionally, a $ USD 1,155.71 increase in a country’s GDP will lead to a 1,000 barrel per day increase in that country’s oil demand, assuming all other variables are held fixed. Figure 1. Oil consumption by country The graph above shows the predicted vs. actual oil consumption by country using GDP and oil consumed (‘000 barrel per day) data for 2010. Based from the above, the U.S. was the top oil consumer in 2010. It consumed 16.7 M barrels per day - exceeding the benchmark result from the regression analysis by 15% or 2.4 M barrels per day. Other countries observed to have exceeded their benchmarked oil consumption...
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...IN EXPORT IN INDIA 9 MAJOR FACTORS THAT AFFECT EXPORTS 10 EXPORT TRENDS AND THE WAY AHEAD 12 IMPACT OF FDI ON EXPORT 12 HOW FDI DRIVES EXPORT 12 IMPACT ON SERVICE INDUSTRY 13 METHEDOLOGY 14 PERIOD OF STUDY 14 SOURCES OF DATA 14 HYPOTHESIS 14 RESULT 15 ANALYSIS 16 IMPLICATION 16 CONCLUSION 16 REFERENCES 18 EXHIBITS 20 FIGURES 23 INTRODUCTION Foreign direct investment is an important part of the economy of every country.It helps expedite the globalisation process. Firms across the world interact with other firms situated in different countries. This results in mutual growth of firms and states. Over the years FDI as a percentage of GDP of world has increased significantly. In 1980 the total stock of FDI equalled only 6.6 per cent of world gross domestic product, while in 2003 the share had increased to close to 23 per cent. This implies that the world economy is getting increasingly interconnected resulting into the flow of goods and capital into developing nations. India has seen tremendous growth in the FDI inflow over the past two decades. By 1997 India became the ninth largest recipient of such investment among the developing economies. Flow of capital and goods has impacted various macroeconomic variables of the economy. Export is one of the variables that gets affected due to the increase in FDI.It has seen exponential growth during the past two decades. For example, exports have grown over 11% per annum while growth in GDP grew only about...
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...The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in China Mengyuan Chen Illinois Wesleyan University Dec 10, 2012 Abstract This paper uses the data of RMB exchange rates and stock market prices in China from 1994 to 2011 to estimate the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. There are two major theories concerning the relationship. According to the portfolio balance effect, these two variables should be negatively related; in addition, according to the international trading effect theory, these two variables should be positively related. The linear regression model is adopted to observe the various relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results confirmed my hypothesis, which indicates that the international trading effect is more dominant, thus the net effect is a positive causal relationship from exchange rates to stock prices. I. Introduction Within the emerging Chinese market, China now has more open policies and advanced financial market instruments to promote globalization. For example, China started to allow the RMB to float within a larger daily range in 2005 and brought derivative options into the stock market. These significant steps all suggest that China is beginning to face a new economic condition. For instance, the challenging policy making of RMB exchange rate is one. Exchange rates and stock prices are both key indicators of the economy and financial markets. So the relationship between those two becomes an...
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...for Indian Car Manufacturers Contents Executive Summary Introduction Overview Brazil Russia India China Conclusion Appendix Sources Contacts 4 6 7 10 15 19 24 29 31 33 34 Executive Summary The BRIC block has emerged as the economic power house of growth for the automotive industry through the last decade. What started as an exploration of new/extra markets for car sales in the early 90s has gone on to become the mainstream market of the new millennium. Supported by attractive macro-economic factors such as growing economic activity, urbanization, rising household incomes, developing credit markets and very low car density, the BRIC countries currently make up for the top 7 automotive markets globally. The BRIC block has been strongly growing for over 10 years; with 3 of 4 BRIC economies surging ahead even during the 2008 economic crisis. So that prompts us to ask how the dynamics have transformed over the years. What were the major drivers of growth in car sales in the last decade and into the future? Is the current slowdown a blip or is it here to stay? More importantly, what does the growth dynamics in China, Brazil and Russia mean to the Indian automotive market? We offer our perspective on the impact of macroeconomic factors on car sales in the BRIC block between 2001 and 2011. Below are the key findings of our analysis: 1. Car sales in Brazil, Russia, India and China grew at a CAGR of 8.8%, 5.7%, 14.5% and 34.3% respectively as against a globalcar sales average of...
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...IRJC International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research Vol.1 Issue 8, August 2012, ISSN 2277 3622 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA R. ANITHA* *Assistant Professor, Anna Adarsh College for Women, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. ABSTRACT Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a very important role in the development of the nation. It is very much vital in the case of underdeveloped and developing countries. A typical characteristic of these developing and underdeveloped economies is the fact that these economies do not have the needed level of savings and income in order to meet the required level of investment needed to sustain the growth of the economy. In such cases, foreign direct investment plays an important role of bridging the gap between the available resources or funds and the required resources or funds. It plays an important role in the long-term development of a country not only as a source of capital but also for enhancing competitiveness of the domestic economy through transfer of technology, strengthening infrastructure, raising productivity and generating new employment opportunities. In India, FDI is considered as a developmental tool, which helps in achieving self-reliance in various sectors and in overall development of the economy. India after liberalizing and globalizing the economy to the outside world in 1991, there was a massive increase in the flow of foreign direct investment. This paper analyses FDI inflow...
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...to host both the 2014 World Soccer Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games (Focus2move website). We begin this report by providing a summary of the economic activities taking place in Brazil that are likely to affect the future. Then, the report is divided into three parts; the first highlighting the macro-economic factors that will help forecast the future demand for passenger automobiles in the local market, the second highlighting the macro-economic factors that will help forecast the future demand for export of passenger automobiles and the final part highlighting the macro-economic factors that help forecast the future demand for import of passenger automobiles. Brazil was not immune to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, as its real GDP decreased slightly by 0.3% in 2009. However, the economy quickly recovered in 2010 and 2011, with...
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...COLLECTION/SAMPLE SELECTION 9 HYPOTHESIS 10 Research Methodology 10 FINDINGS 11 CONTRIBUTION TO LITERATURE 23 CONCLUSIONS 23 References 25 UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION Relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index: A causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables in India ABSTRACT The relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index by now are well documented in the literature. However a void in the literature relates to examining the causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables such as FDI, FPI, weighted average lending rate (WALR), GDP and oil import in India and correlation among the macro variables. INTRODUCTION Globalization of Indian economy post liberalization has been spurred by capital and stock investment in terms of FDI & FPI. Indian stock market both securities and commodities are among the favourite hunting spots for foreign investor betting on India’s growth story. Over the last two decades the fast space of economic growth and progressive policy liberalization has made India an attractive destination for World’s investors. FDI and FPI thus have become instruments of international economic integration and stimulation. Fast growing economies...
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...PART I: CASE DESCRIPTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION Crude oil is a mineral oil. It is a mixture of hydrocarbons of natural origin and associated impurities, such as Sulphur according to Energy International Agency. Further explained, under normal surface temperatures and pressure, crude oil is exists in the form of liquid. It has highly variable physical characteristics such as density. Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, China, and Canada are the top five oil producer countries (2013). As the producer, the countries are daily extracting sum of crude oil barrels through the process of drilling from their reserves. The top five oil consumer countries are United States, China, Japan, India, and Russia (2013). The consumptions are due to the aggressive economy advancement and the fast-paced growth of related industries. It is estimated that due to the current rate of consumption, the worldwide reserves will become depleted by 2040. Forecasted by the International Energy Agency Oil Market Report, more than 93 million barrels of oil and liquid fuels are demanded daily worldwide. Annually, the production is being works out for more than 34 billion barrels. Demand for oil is consistently growing globally. Referring to the basic economics, total output of the crude oil reached its peak and the price of it will gradually rise with the demand. Depletion of oil will result in the falling rate of the production. The prices of oil will rise at a bigger scale. The exploration on the new reserves...
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...The influence of Gross Domestic Investment per capita and Education Index on the GDP per capita. I. Introduction The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the Education Level (the human capital), and investment in the economy per capita on the GDP per capita, that is on the welfare of citizens. These two factors has been chosen because the author of this paper believes that human capital from the social side and investment capital from the economical side plays both crucial and important role, leading to the real long-run economical growth. Human capital and economic growth have a strong relationship. Human capital affects economic growth and can help to develop an economy through the knowledge and skills of people. On the other hand money investment in the economy plays a material role in the development of countries and at the end in the welfare of people. Investment in the huge economic projects with real production value like food and machine industries are the final products which people are using in everyday life. Thus the economy`s path of production is coming from the ideas born in human brain to the real realized product. II. Method This research uses data from 23 observations (23 countries). The regression model consists of one dependent and two explanatory variables. The dependent variable is GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$). The per capita GDP has been chosen because it provides a more precise comparability of wealth of people of different...
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...Contents 1. Introduction to Ethiopia’s Economy 3 Agriculture effect on economy 4 2. Ethiopian Economy Facts 9 3. GDP Projection 14 Analysis of various factors 17 Inflation 17 Interest Rates 17 Exports and Imports 18 Trend Analysis 18 4. Conclusion 19 5. References 20 1. Introduction to Ethiopia’s Economy Ethiopian economy is mainly based on agriculture sector, which accounts for 46% of the GDP and 85% of the total employment. Coffee has been a major crop which also mainly contributes to Ethiopia’s exports to the other countries. Ineffective cultivation practices and inadequate rainfall are the major deterrents to the agricultural sector. But recent joint efforts by the Ethiopia Government and aid agencies are helping to upgrade the traditional agricultural practices. This has significantly contribution to the reduction in number of Ethiopians suffering from starvation. The sectors of banking which comprises Insurance and Micro-credit industries are not open to foreign investors, though Ethiopia had huge inflows of investment in other commercial agricultural sectors like leather and textile. The graph shows Ethiopian economy’s sector-wise performance from the year 2004 to 2010. The agricultural sector has seen constant decline from 65% to 30% chiefly due to minimal rainfall. Soil is not fertile for the harvesting, so the crops were not growing properly. In industry sector emerging as it can be seen from growth up to 60% in 2010 as compare to...
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...The relationship between Life Expectancy at birth and GDP per capita (PPP) Candidate: Teacher: Candidate number: Date of submission: Word Count: 2907 Section 1: Introduction In a given country, Life Expectancy at birth is the expected number of years of life from birth. Gross domestic product per capita is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in one year, divided by the size of the population of that country. The main objective of the present project is to establish the existence of a statistical relation between Life Expectancy (y) at birth and GDP per capita (x). First, we will present in Section 2 the data, from an official governmental source, containing Life Expectancy at birth and GDP per capita of 48 countries in the year 2003. We will put this data in a table ordered alphabetically and at the end of the section we will perform some basic statistical analysis of these data. These statistics will include the mean, median, modal class and standard deviation, for both Life Expectancy and GDP per capita. In Section 3 we will find the regression line which best fits our data and the corresponding correlation coefficient r. It is natural to ask if there is a non-linear model, which better describes the statistical relation between GDP per capita and Life Expectancy. This question will be studied in Section 4, where we will see if a logarithmic relation of type y=A ln(x+C) + B, is a better model. ...
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...“A Study of International Marketing Application in Foreign Trade in India” Authors: Nader Angoutin Research Scholar in Commerce, University of Kerala, Trivandrum. Email:Nader_Angoutin@yahoo.com Abstract This paper analyses the Study of International Marketing Application in Foreign Trade in India. The study argues the international marketing as simple extension of exporting, whereby the marketing miss is simply adapted in some way to take into account differences in consumers and segment. International marketing research really plays an important role in the marketing research. The study will help in understanding the application of international marketing and knowing the socio economic, foreign trade and financial economic effects. This will fill a critical gap as not much information is available in the context of International Marketing Application in Foreign Trade in India. Keywords: International Marketing- Foreign Trade INTRODUCTION: International marketing is simply the application of marketing principles to more than one country. However, there is a crossover between what is commonly expressed as international marketing and global marketing, or across national borderlines. The intersection is the result of the process of internationalization. Many American and European authors see international marketing as simple extension of exporting, whereby the marketing miss is simply adapted in some way to take into account differences in consumers...
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...and to UNIDO for making their INDSTAT4 data base available. I also thank Cynthia Balloch for research assistance and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard for financial assistance. I. Introduction Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart‘s timely comic novel ―Super Sad True Love Story‖ (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country‘s bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America‘s most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (―low net worth individuals‖) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency. This is sheer fantasy of course, but one that seems to resonate well with the collective mood A future in which the U.S and other advanced economies are forced to play second fiddle to the dynamic emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere is rapidly becoming cliché. This vision is based in part...
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... The report entitled “Analysis of Economic Growth and External Sector Behavior” mainly focuses on the study of the structure of the external sector of Bangladesh and its impact on GDP. It involves economic models developed to determine the impact of each sector-Export, Import, Foreign Aid and Remittance, on GDP of Bangladesh. It also involves an analysis of the behavior of these factors in three SAARC countries and the application of the regression model developed. The economic model was developed based on the past behavior of GDP and the external sector. It indicated that Remittance is the sector having the most significant impact on GDP and aid the second most significant. While imports negatively affect economic growth, exports have played a very important role over the period. The remittance of Bangladesh has been increasing over the last few years. Hence, its impact on GDP has also been rising. In the span of 34 years export as percentage of GDP increased from 2.2% to 15.4%. Hence, performance was moderately good. The economy has been suffering from ever increasing trade deficits, despite several export promotional measures. Large import payments mainly account for this problem. Foreign aid shows large fluctuations over the period Finally, an analysis was conducted on the behavior of the external sectors in the SAARC countries using the regression model. Export was found to be the dominant sector in India, while imports had the minimum impact on GDP. Pakistan was found to...
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...NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES ACCOUNTING FOR GROWTH: COMPARING CHINA AND INDIA Barry Bosworth Susan M. Collins Working Paper 12943 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12943 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 February 2007 We are very indebted to Anthony Liu and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich for extensive assistance in understanding the data and constructing the growth accounts. This paper was presented at the annual conference of the Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies, December 6-7, 2006. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2007 by Barry Bosworth and Susan M. Collins. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India Barry Bosworth and Susan M. Collins NBER Working Paper No. 12943 February 2007 JEL No. F43,O1,O4 ABSTRACT We compare the recent economic performances of China and India using a simple growth accounting framework that produces estimates of the contribution of labor, capital, education, and total factor productivity for the three sectors of agriculture, industry, and services as well as for the aggregate economy. Our analysis incorporates recent data revisions in both countries and includes extensive discussion of the underlying data...
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