India’s Trade in 2020:
A Mapping of Relevant Factors

Nagesh Kumar

A paper prepared for the
Committee on Vision 2020 for India,
Planning Commission,
Government of India

Revised Version: 22 May 2001

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An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Fifth Meeting of the Committee on Vision 2020 for India, Planning Commission, on 8 February 2001. I benefited from discussions with Dr V.R. Panchamukhi, and from comments of Dr S.P. Gupta and other participants at the Meeting The usual disclaimer applies.

India’s Trade in 2020:
A Mapping of Relevant Factors

Introduction

India's trade has generally grown at a faster rate compared to the growth of GDP over the past two decades. With the liberalization since 1991 in particular, the importance of international trade in India’s economy has grown considerably. As a result the ratio of international trade to GDP has gone up from 14 per cent in 1980 to nearly 20 per cent towards the end of the decade of 1990s. Given the trends of globalization and liberalization, the openness of Indian economy is expected to grow further in the coming two decades. The more exact magnitude of India's trade in 2020 and its proportion to India's national income would be determined by a variety of factors. Many of these factors are in the nature of external shocks and are beyond the control of national policy making. One illustration is the recent surge in the crude oil prices in the international market to unprecedented levels that have impacted the country’s imports in a significant manner. In addition, the implementation of various WTO agreements are