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Indian Economy

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Current state of Indian Economy August 2010

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry New Delhi

Highlights – August 2010
July 2010 overall industrial growth numbers continued on the path of buoyancy. The high growth in the overall industrial output was solely on account of the heavyweight manufacturing sector. The other two sectors also remained in the positive zone in July and during the period from April – July 2010. However, the growth in output was lower than the growth seen in the corresponding period of previous year (FY10). Going by the use-based classification we see a huge rise in the production of capital goods which rose by 63 percent in July 2010 as compared to the rise of 1.7 percent in the same month of previous year. The growth in the consumer goods output swelled only on account the durables segment. The industry segments that registered a sizable increase in output were food products, cotton textiles, jute products, paper products , rubber and plastic products, petroleum , coal and tar, metal products and among the capital goods were the machinery and equipment , transport equipment and parts. The growth momentum of the six core infrastructure industries was maintained with the increase in petroleum products ( crude petroleum and petroleum refinery). Production in coal and power remained positive, however, the growth numbers were not higher than the previous year. The two segments that were found in the negative territory were cement and finished steel. The moderation in overall inflation could be observed in July 2010, 10 percent in July from 11 percent in the previous month. However, inflation was found to be much higher when compared with the inflation recorded in July last year and may require more time and steps by the government to cool down to targeted levels. The prices of items / article groups that fueled the overall price to rise to such levels were the food and non-food articles (primary goods), fuel products, beverages, textiles, wood, rubber, chemicals , basic metals , machinery and transport equipments. The broad money supply rose by 3.4 percent over the period from April to July 2010-11, this was lower than the M3 recorded in same period of previous year. The aggregate deposits was also seen to expand slowly by 3.3 percent during the period from April to July of the current fiscal as compared to the expansion of 6.2 percent during the same period of 2009-10. The bank credit rose by 3.5 percent calculated in July over April 2010. The total revenue of the government stepped up sharply this year with more than twofold increase, from the Rs 105378 crores up to July 2009-10 to Rs 238524 crores up to the month of 2 : Page

July of current fiscal . Consequently, the magnitude of fiscal deficit has contracted by almost 43 percent during this period of 2010-11 over the previous year. According to RBI, government acquired higher than anticipated revenue in July from the auction of 3G and BWG and revenue from taxes helped the holding back of fiscal deficit within the targeted level of 5.5 %. The buoyancy in tax collection in July has been on account of impressive collection in the direct and indirect taxes. However, in growth terms the indirect tax was observed to be much higher as compared to the growth in direct taxes. The indices continue to swing between 16 K to 17K points. In July 2010 it rose to the level of 17.5 K points and currently in September 2010 we saw the Indian stock market rise to the level of 20 K points again. The overall merchandise exports slowed to 13 percent in the fourth month ( July) of the present fiscal as compared to the 30 plus percent growth registered in the previous month of this year. It is early for any comment on the trend without the trade numbers of August and September. The total foreign investment swelled to 10.8 billion up to July on the back of inflows in the portfolio investment category. High investment activity by the FIIs was witnessed during the month, this high inflows is what has led to increased portfolio investments ( USD 9.1 billion). FDI received during the month was only USD 1.7 billion . Further increase in the forex reserves has been witnessed; this has been observed to rise from USD 275 billion to USD 284 billion and enough to cover 11 months of imports.

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Contents

Title

Page

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Industrial Growth Core Infrastructure Industries Trends in Inflation Monetary Indicators Stock Market Trends Fiscal Management Foreign Trade Capital Inflows Foreign Exchange Reserves

6 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16

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List of Tables
Table- 1.1: Growth of Industry: Recent Trends (in percentage) Table -1.2: Growth in 17 Industry sectors Table-1.3: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change) Table-1.4: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change) Table-1.5. Monthly trends in Wholesale price index- monthly average (% change) Table-1.6: Monthly trends in consumer prices (% change) Table-1.7: Monetary sector indicators Table-1.8: Monthly trends in stock market indices Table-1.9: Trends in cumulative tax collections of central government (%) Table-1.10: Service Tax Table-1.11: Trends in central government finances: Table-1.12: Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade (% change) Table-1.13: Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million) Table-1.14: Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves ($ billion) 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 15 16 17

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1. Industrial growth The IIP growth numbers released in September for July 2010 showed that the overall industry posted 13.8 percent growth, which is higher than the growth of 7.2 percent posted in the corresponding month of previous year. The three constituents of the overall industry namely the mining, manufacturing and electricity were seen to grow positively. However, what mainly led to the sizable increase in the overall growth was high growth of 15 percent in the manufacturing sector in contrast to the increase of 7.2 percent in the previous year. The use-based classification shows that production of basic goods , capital goods, intermediate goods grew at 5.1 percent , 63 percent and 9.1 percent in July 2010 as compared to 4.7 percent , 1.7 percent and 9.1 percent respectively in the same month of previous year. The growth in the consumer goods decelerated slightly from 9.7 percent previously to 6.7 percent in the current year. The consumer durables segment clocked the same growth rate as in the previous year. The industry sectors which among the 17 industry sectors saw an increase were the food products that increased by 9.1 percent ( -0.1 percent), cotton textiles by 12.1 percent (0.5 percent) , jute products by 19.3 percent (-28.1 percent ), paper products by 7.3 percent ( 1.7 percent), rubber , plastic , petroleum and coal products by 19.4 percent ( 12.5 percent), metal products rose by 14.8 percent ( 12.6 percent ), machinery and equipment and transport by 49.4 percent (12.0 percent ) and transport equipment by 24.9 percent (10.9 %) . ( The numbers within braces are for the previous year )

1.1: Growth of Industry: Recent Trends (in percentage) Weights Industry Mining Manufacturing Electricity Use Based Classification Basic Intermediate Capital Consumer Goods Consumer non Durables Consumer Durables 100 10.2 79.4 10.5 35.6 26.5 9.3 28.7 23.3 5.4 July 2009 7.2 8.7 7.4 4.2 4.7 9.8 1.7 9.7 5.3 22.1 July 2010 13.8 9.7 15.0 3.7 5.1 9.1 63.0 6.7 0.5 22.1

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Table- 1.2: Growth in 17 Industry sectors

17 industry sectors
Food Products 9.1 -0.1 9.1 Beverages, Tobacco and Related Products 2.4 3.7 -2.1 Cotton Textiles 5.5 0.5 12.1 Wool, Silk and man-made fiber textiles 2.3 34.0 1.2 Jute and other vegetable fiber Textiles (except 0.6 -28.1 19.3 cotton) Textile Products (including Wearing Apparel) 2.5 5.9 -0.7 Wood and Wood Products; Furniture and Fixtures 2.7 1.7 -9.4 Paper & Paper Products and Printing, Publishing & 2.6 1.7 7.3 Allied Industries Leather and Leather & Fur Products 1.1 14.9 -1.8 Basic Chemicals & Chemical Products (except products of 14.0 6.9 2.5 Petroleum & Coal) Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum and Coal Products 5.7 12.5 19.4 Non-Metallic Mineral Products 4.4 6.5 0.0 Basic Metal and Alloy Industries 7.5 3.7 4.6 Metal Products and Parts, except Machinery 2.8 12.6 14.8 and Equipment Machinery and Equipment other than Transport 9.6 12.0 49.4 Equipment Transport Equipment and Parts 4.0 10.9 24.9 Other Manufacturing Industries 2.5 -0.7 31.1 Source: Central Statistical Organization

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2. Core sector growth
The core infrastructure industries were seen to maintain growth during the four month period of FY11. In July growth in the overall core sector was 3.9 percent as against the growth of 3.2 percent attained in the same month previous year. Four sectors namely the crude petroleum, petroleum refinery, coal and power were seen to post positive growth of 15.8 percent, 13.7 percent, 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent during the month as against the negative growth of 0.4 percent , (-) 14.4 percent, 10 .5 percent and 3.8 percent respectively in the previous year. The categories that posted negative growth in July this year after three months of positive growth were the finished steel and cement industry.

Table-1.3: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change) July 2010 All infrastructure industries 08-09 09-10 4.6 3.7 4.4 3.2 4.4 6.3 5.2 3.2 2.0 6.5 4.1 4.5 2.4 3.8 0.8 6.0 0.7 6.4 2.2 9.4 1.9 4.5 3.3 7.2 Finished steel Cement Crude petroleum 10-11 8.7 8.6 3.6 -0.2 08-09 1.0 3.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -8.1 -6.2 -2.3 09-10 -3.1 -4.3 4.0 -0.4 -2.6 -0.5 -2.2 -1.5 1.1 9.7 4.0 3.5 10-11 5.2 5.8 6.8 15.8

April May June July August September October November December January February March

10-11 5.1 5.0 3.4 3.9

08-09 7.5 8.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 2.3 -3.8 -6.3 -8.0 3.2 2.4 -1.8

09-10 -1.3 2.8 3.6 4.0 0.3 0.8 2.5 11.7 9.6 16.2 0.9 9.2

10-11 4.7 2.5 3.5 -0.9

08-09 09-10 6.9 11.9 3.8 11.8 6.6 12.7 5.5 13.8 1.9 17.6 8.1 6.5 6.2 5.2 8.7 9.0 11.6 11.0 8.3 12.4 8.3 5.8 10.1 7.8 Source: Ministry of Industry

Table-1.4: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change) Petroleum refinery 08-09 09-10 4.3 -4.5 0.1 -4.3 5.6 -3.8 11.8 -14.4 2.5 31 2.8 3.4 5.0 7.2 -1.1 4.9 3.0 0.8 -1.3 3.8 0.5 0.8 3.3 -0.4 Coal 10-11 5.3 7.7 2.9 13.7 08-09 10.4 8.8 6.1 5.5 5.9 11.2 10.6 9.7 11.2 6.7 6.0 5.2 09-10 13.2 10.4 15.2 10.5 12.9 6.5 5.0 4.6 2.5 6.0 6.8 7.8 10-11 -2.3 0.1 0.9 4.5 Power 08-09 1.4 2.0 2.6 4.5 0.8 4.4 4.4 2.6 1.5 1.8 0.6 6.3 09-10 6.7 3.0 7.7 3.8 10.6 7.9 4.7 3.3 6.7 5.6 7.3 7.8 10-11 6.0 6.4 3.4 3.8

April May June July August September October November December January February March

Source: Ministry of Industry

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3. Inflation
Inflation continues to remain one of the top concerns. The WPI based inflation still remains above the double digit mark. Currently inflation is above 10 percent, way off the targeted 5.5-6.0 percent for the current fiscal. The inflation is fueled by the prices of primary articles (both food and non- food ), fuel . Prices were also seen to rise in the case of manufactured articles such as textiles, wood, rubber, chemicals, basic metals, machinery and transport equipments.
Table-1.5. Monthly trends in Wholesale price index- monthly average (% change) 2009 June -1.0 6.5 10.9 0.1 -12.5 0.6 11.5 6.0 4.5 0.3 2.6 -1.0 3.4 2.1 3.1 -14.1 -2.2 0.6 July -0.5 7.6 14.2 -3.3 -10.4 0.1 9.7 5.5 2.1 0.3 2.0 -1.2 2.5 3.2 5.2 -15.2 -2.2 0.6 2010 June 11.1 18.1 15.6 18.7 14.0 6.9 4.0 7.6 15.2 14.6 1.0 0.5 6.7 6.3 -1.1 12.0 5.1 2.6 July 10.0 14.9 10.3 21.0 14.3 6.2 4.1 6.5 13.8 14.6 1.4 0.2 7.0 4.9 -4.8 11.9 4.2 2.3

All Commodities I Primary Article (A) Food Articles (B) Non-Food Articles II Fuel Power Light & Lubricants III Manufactured Products (A) Food Products (B) Beverages, Tobacco & Tobacco Products (C) Textiles (D) Wood & Wood Products (E) Paper & Paper Products (F) Leather & Leather Products (G) Rubber & Plastic Products (H) Chemicals & Chemical Products (I) Non-Metallic Mineral Products (J) Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products (K) Machinery & Machine Tools (L) Transport Equipment & Parts

Source: Reserve Bank of India Table-1.6: Monthly trends in consumer prices (% change) CPI-IW 08-09 April May June July August September October November December January February March 7.8 7.8 7.7 8.3 9.0 9.8 10.4 10.4 9.7 10.4 9.6 8.0 CPI-UNME 08-09 09-10 7.0 6.8 7.3 7.4 8.5 9.5 10.4 10.8 9.8 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.8 9.7 9.6 13.0 12.9 12.4 12.0 13.9 15.5 16.9 15.8 14.9 CPI-AL 08-09 8.9 9.1 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.5 CPI-RL 08-09 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.8 9.7

09-10 8.7 8.6 9.3 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.5 13.5 15.0 16.2 14.9 14.9

10-11 13.3 13.9 13.7 11.3

10-11 14.4 14.1 14.1 --

09-10 9.1 10.2 11.5 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.7 15.7 17.2 17.6 16.5 15.8

10-11 15.0 13.7 13.0 11.0

09-10 9.1 10.2 11.3 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.5 15.7 17.0 17.4 16.5 15.5

10-11 15.0 13.7 13.0 11.2

Source: Ministry of Labor, CMIE

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4

Monetary indicators

The broad money supply expanded by 3.4 percent during the period of April to July this year compared to the growth of 5.3 percent registered during the same period of 2009-10. In absolute terms M3 stood at Rs 191240 crores as against Rs 253921 crores during the same period of previous fiscal. As on July 30, 2010, the net bank credit flow to Government slowed to 4.3 percent corresponding to the 11.3 percent growth in 2009-10. The expansion in money supply is mainly contributed by credit to the commercial sector and increase in net foreign assets. The net bank credit to the commercial sector was observed to grow at 3.3 percent during this period compared to modest growth of 0.9 percent in the last fiscal. The net foreign Exchange assets of banking sector swelled by 4.7 percent vis-à-vis 0.1 percent growth posted during the same period of 2009-10. Aggregate deposits in the banking sector increased by 3.3 percent over the period from July to April 2010-11 as against the expansion of 6.2 percent during the same period of previous year. Investments in government and other approved securities shows moderation in growth to 4.3 percent in 2010-11; showing a relative decline from the growth of 14.5 percent in the previous financial year. During this period, total bank credit augmented sharply from 1.1 percent in 2009-10 to 3.5 percent in 2010-11. The recent hike in key policy rates by RBI on September 16, 2010, made the Indian bankers cautious about their future move in banking operation. The banking sector is unlikely to respond immediately to the rate hike by raising their deposit rates and lending rates. Bankers’ opined that, the persistently low deposit growth could not support the credit growth. There may also be the possibility of increase in deposit rates followed by lending rates of banks.
Table-1.7: Monetary sector indicators – up to July (July 2010-11 over March 2009-10) Variation in M3 (Rs crore) 08-09 09-10 22235 124682 73398 172709 89283 172702 169734 253921 208571 280313 264364 331793 331450 391310 374193 431266 423509 521426 508078 575387 635810 652944 740332 806190 Variation in M3 (%) 10-11 42384 92656 77314 191240 08-09 0.6 1.9 2.2 4.2 5.2 6.6 8.3 9.3 10.6 12.7 15.9 18.4 09-10 2.6 3.6 3.6 5.3 5.9 7.0 8.2 9.1 10.9 12.1 13.7 16.9 10-11 0.8 1.7 1.4 3.4

April May June July August September October November December January February March

Source: Reserve Bank of India

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5

Stock market trends

The Indian stock market appears highly promising for the overseas investors as reflected by the inflows in the past few weeks with the high flow in investments in the country’s stocks. The growing FII investments made the BSE index not only cross 17 K points but to get closer to the 20 K points in September 2010.
Table-1.8: Monthly trends in stock market indices (beginning of month figures) Date 1.01.08 1.02.08 3.03.08 1.04.08 2.05.08 2.06.08 1.07.08 1.08.08 1.09.08 1.10.08 3.11.08 1.12.08 26.12.08 30.01.09 02.03.09 31.03.09 29.04.09 01.06.09 01.07.09 03.08.09 01.09.09 01.10.09 03.11.09 01.12.09 04.01.10 01.02.10 02.03.10 01.04.10 03.05.10 01.06.10 01.07.10 BSE Sensex 20300 18242 16677 15626 17600 16063 12961 14656 14498 13055 10337 8839 9328 9424 8607 9708 11403 14840 14645 15924 15551 17134 15405 17198 17558 16356 16773 17693 17386 16572 17509 % Change 4.8 -10.1 -8.5 -6.3 12.6 -8.7 -19.3 13.1 -1.1 -9.9 -20.8 -14.5 5.5 1.0 -8.7 12.8 17.5 30.1 -1.31 8.7 -2.3 10.2 -10.1 11.6 2.1 -6.8 2.5 5.5 -1.7 -4.7 5.7 S&P CNX NIFTY 6144 5317 4953 4739 5228 4739 3896 4413 4447 3950 3043 2682 2857 2874 2674 3020 3473 4529 4340 4711 4625 5083 4564 5122 5232 4900 5017 5291 5223 4970 5251 % Change 6.6 -13.5 -6.8 -4.3 10.3 -9.3 -17.8 13.3 0.8 -11.1 -23.0 -11.9 6.5 0.5 -7.0 12.9 15.0 30.4 -4.1 8.5 -1.8 9.9 -10.2 12.2 2.1 -6.4 2.4 5.5 -1.3 -4.8 5.7

Source: Reserve Bank of India

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6

Fiscal Management

The total government expenditure amounted to be Rs 332700 crores in July end 2010 calculated over April 2010; securing almost 25.4 percent increase over the same period of previous year. On the revenue side, the total receipts increased more than two folds (126.4 % growth in July 2010 over July 2009) from the level of Rs 105378 crores in 2009-10 to Rs 238524 crores during the same period of current year. The resultant diminution in fiscal deficit is evident from the finance score sheet of the Government as the level of deficit has come down by 42.7 percent during the period in 2010-11. RBI in the Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review of September 2010 assessed the holistic situation of government finance in detail. According to the review, higher than expected realizations on 3G and Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) auction accompanied with buoyant tax revenues, have rationally suspended the fear of the fiscal deficit exceeding the target of 5.5 per cent announced in Union Budget 2010-11. Thus it would help to stabilize market expectations of liquidity and interest rate movements in coming months. The overall tax collection grew by 27.5 percent during the month as against the negative growth of 11.1 percent in July 2009. The persistent collection in both direct and indirect taxes is primarily responsible for such an increase in tax revenue. In the segment of direct taxes, corporate tax rose by 18.4 percent vis-a-vis 4.7 percent growth in July 2009 and the collection in income tax accelerated by 15.8 percent corresponding to the growth of 5.9 percent in same month of last fiscal. Looking at indirect taxes we find all major tax components except the ‘Other taxes’ category confirmed an impressive growth in July 2010. The customs and excise collection grew by 57.4 percent and 52 percent respectively corresponding to the negative growth observed in same month of last fiscal. The performance in service tax collection also remained buoyant with a strong growth of 12.5 percent in this month as against the negative growth of 1.5 percent in July 2009.

Table-1.9: Trends in cumulative tax collections of central government (%) Gross tax revenue 08-09 09-10 52.2 -16.9 36.1 -11.8 28.4 -11.4 26.2 -11.1 25.0 -11.5 25.3 -7.6 20.3 -7.5 17.5 -7.8 9.6 -2.5 7.2 -1.2 6.9 -1.6 2.7 Corporation tax 08-09 09-10 55.0 -8.4 58.1 10.1 43.4 1.8 41.6 4.7 45.9 2.4 38.2 7.7 30.3 6.5 26.4 6.6 11.9 16.8 11.9 16.5 17.9 10.9 10.8 Income tax 08-09 127.7 76.0 50.0 42.0 35.7 30.7 21.9 19.0 6.8 5.4 7.5 7.1

April May June July August September October November December January February March

10-11 27.0 22.0 28.6 27.5

10-11 23.4 -1.8 23.7 18.4

09-10 20.0 11.7 7.1 5.9 8.1 7.2 10.5 9.8 12.2 13.3 11.4

10-11 8.3 13.0 13.8 15.8

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April May June July August September October November December January February March

Customs 08-09 25.0 24.1 19.9 19.2 17.0 16.8 14.4 13.7 11.1 6.4 1.7 -4.1

09-10 -52..6 -38.2 -37.3 -34.7 -34.0 -32.9 -31.7 -31.2 -29.2 -25.2 -21.8

10-11 106.4 56.6 62.2 57.4

Excise duties 08-09 09-10 -28.3 -114.2 1.3 -23.3 -0.9 -23.7 4.0 -26.6 6.5 -24.5 6.6 -22.9 6.3 -21.7 5.1 -20.0 2.1 -18.2 -2.6 -14.5 -7.1 -10.2 -12.0

10-11 314.1 49.3 52.0 52.0

Other taxes 08-09 9.04 26.7 26.0 24.7 17.4 30.7 16.2 6.1 -2.6 -6.4 -10.0 -11.5

09-10 -5.4 -18.7 -9.5 -3.87 -1.97 -20.5 -17.2 -15.0 -24.2 -21.8 -19.8

10-11 -43.2 -11.7 -36.8 -33.3

Table-1.10: Service Tax Service Tax April May June July August September October November December January February March 08-09 09-10 10-11 62.3 -0.04 -6.0 40.7 -2.60 1.6 34.2 -2.85 9.1 29.7 -1.46 12.5 28.6 -2.29 31.8 -3.7 31.8 -5.3 30.2 -6.2 25.4 -5.9 24.6 -6.2 22.2 -5.9 18.6 Source: Controller General of Accounts

Table-1.11 Trends in central government finances: July 2010 Actual to budget estimates ( in Rs crores) 09-10 10-11 Revenue receipts Tax revenue Non tax revenue Total receipts Non plan expenditure On revenue account On capital account Plan expenditure On revenue account On capital account Total expenditure Fiscal deficit 105378 238524 86309 112821 19069 125703 106690 241785 194868 222900 181145 194141 13723 28759 70376 109800 59011 94458 11365 15342 265244 332700 158554 90915 Source: Controller General of Accounts

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7

Merchandise trade

The total merchandise trade (including the imports and exports) during the first four months of the 2010-11 stood at USD 180 billion as against USD 136 billion. Merchandise exports neared USD 70 billion in the fourth month of the present fiscal, and imports were seen to rise to the level of USD 112 billion. The high imports have increased the deficits to USD 43 billion from USD 31 billion in the same period of previous year.

Table-1.12: Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade (% change) up to July 2010 Exports 08-09 31.5 12.9 23.5 31.2 26.9 10.4 -12.1 -9.9 -1.1 -15.9 -21.7 -33.3 Oil imports 08-09 09-10 46.2 -58.5 50.8 -60.6 53.4 -50.6 69.3 -55.5 76.7 -45.5 57.1 -33.5 22 -9.3 11.9 7.3 -30.9 42.8 -47.5 56.0 -47.5 97.4 -58.1 85.2 Non-oil imports 08-09 09-10 32.3 -24.6 17.4 -25.4 13.9 -16.5 38.7 -24.5 39.6 -25.5 36.2 -30.4 5.5 -17.2 3.4 -5.9 31.9 22.4 -0.5 28.8 -10.2 55.6 -18.9 61.0 Total imports 08-09 09-10 36.6 -36.6 27.1 -39.2 25.9 -29.3 48.1 -37.1 51.2 -32.4 43.3 -31.3 10.6 -15.0 6.1 -2.6 8.8 27.2 -18.2 35.5 -23.3 66.4 -34.0 67.1

April May June July August September October November December January February March

09-10 -33.2 -29.2 -27.7 -28.4 -19.4 -13.8 -6.6 18.2 9.3 11.5 34.8 54.1

10-11 36.2 35.1 30.4 13.2

10-11 70.5 66.7 26.5 4.4

10-11 34.3 28.2 21.5 49.6

10-11 43.3 38.5 23.0 34.3

Source: Ministry of Commerce

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8

Foreign investment

The foreign direct investment received up to July 2010 was USD 7.5 billion and was much lower than the investment of USD 10.3 billion received in the previous year. However, the total FDI which includes the portfolio investments (which is mainly the FII investments) lifted the total foreign investment for the four-month period (April – July ) to USD 21.3 billion almost at the same level as recorded in the previous year .
Table-1.13: Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ millions) Foreign direct investments April May June July August September October November December January February March 08-09 3749 3932 2392 2247 2328 2562 1497 1083 1362 2733 1466 1956 09-10 2339 2095 2582 3476 3268 1512 2332 1722 1542 2042 1717 1209 10-11 2179 2213 1380 1785 Portfolio investments 08-09 -880 -288 -3010 -492 593 -1403 -5243 -574 30 -614 -1085 -889 09-10 2278 5639 353 2077 926 4999 2922 1274 1533 3139 230 5306 10-11 3315 41 1232 9114 Total foreign investments 08-09 09-10 10-11 2869 4617 5494 3644 7734 2254 -618 2935 2612 1775 6508 10899 2921 4194 1159 6511 -3746 5254 509 2996 1392 3075 2119 5181 381 1947 1067 6515 Source: Reserve Bank of India

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9

Foreign exchange reserves

In July 2010 forex reserves rose to USD 282 billion from USD 275 billion in the previous month, the rise in the forex reserves can be attributed to large inflows coming through the portfolio investment route and partly as a result of revaluation of non-dollar assets. Indian Rupee against the USD gained by a Rupee over the three-month period .Indian Rupee traded at Rs 46.5 approx in July and Rs 45.5 in September 2010. Whereas, Euro was seen to get weaker against the Indian Rupee, trading between RS 56-58 during July and Rs 60-61 in September.
Table-1.14: Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves ($ billion) 07-08 April May June July August September October November December January February March 204.1 208.3 213.4 229.3 228.8 247.7 262.4 273.5 275.9 288.3 301.2 309.7 % Change 2.5 2.0 2.4 7.4 -0.2 8.2 5.9 4.2 0.8 4.4 4.4 2.8 08-09 314.5 312.5 312.0 306.1 295.3 286.3 252.8 247.6 255.9 248.6 249.2 251.7 % Change 1.5 -0.6 -0.1 -1.8 -3.5 -3.0 -11.7 -2.0 3.3 -2.8 0.2 1.0 09-10 251.7 262.3 265.1 271.6 276.4 281.2 284.3 288.1 283.4 280.9 278.4 279.1 % Change 0.0 4.2 1.0 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.3 -1.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.3 Source: Reserve Bank of India 10-11 279.6 273.5 275.7 284.2 % Change 0.2 -2.2 0.8 3.1

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Impacts of Globalisation on Indian Economy

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