INDIAN HOTELS INDUSTRY
Consumer confidence low; revival contingent on global environment
QUARTERLY REVIEW March 2012 ICRA expects the Indian Hotels industry to finish 2011-12 on a weaker note with subdued pricing power eroding margins. Although some revival in operational metrics was witnessed during late 2010-11, the industry continued to lack the pricing power to drive out of its current stagnancy. Globally weak macroeconomic scenario, the European sovereign debt crisis, geo-political turmoil in the Arab countries, high interest rates, inflation and a muted domestic corporate performance during the current fiscal (year to March 31, 2012) have sapped the industry’s ability to sustain inflation adjusted Average Room Realizations (ARRs). Muted ARRs and high costs have led to one of the weakest nine month (9M) periods (April-December-11) in over five years. With uncertainty continuing to cloud the near term, wavering business/consumer confidence and a sluggish economy, there is no significant trigger for the industry during the next two-three quarters. While the start of the next season (in Q3, 2012-13) may bring some relief to the industry in some specific markets, we expect real traction to return to the industry only by 2013-14; overall, we expect this to be a slow and long slog to recovery. We expect ARR growth during the current fiscal to be limited to around 5%, followed by around 5-8% during 2012-13. In the current inflationary environment, RevPAR growth of around 6-7% is required to maintain profitability levels. All the same, we remain optimistic on the long term growth story for the Indian hospitality industry. The improving demographics, rising affluence and the current under penetration throw up significant growth opportunities for the hospitality sector. This is further reinforced by the India-centric growth strategy several global hotel majors are