...Introductions of bullwhip effect According to Lee et al. (1997b) there is a phenomenon that the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales, and the distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream which is called bullwhip effect. It is a distortion in the sharing of information from downstream to upstream in the whole supply chain system; the effects can propagates the enterprise’s marketing, logistic and manufacture. Despite There are lots of factors 9 which could affect the efficiency of supply chain, like organization structure, channel of information, geographical distribution, industry characteristics etc., the bullwhip effect is still one of the most deep-rooted influence factor for the whole system. You cannot find another such kind of element like the bullwhip effect which could affect all parts of the whole supply chain system. No matter what kind of industry the firm are, what place does the firm in or how hard does the firm try by its own, the processes inside of the firm from producing plan to all kind of inventory must be all influenced by the bullwhip effect and hard to avoid. That is why the bullwhip effect is one of the most deep-rooted influence factor. QUESTION 1 (A) Discuss the term “bullwhip effect” and its causes. The bullwhip effect is a distribution channel phenomenon in which forecasts yield supply chain inefficiencies. It refers to increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in customer demand as you move further up the supply...
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...understanding of the bullwhip effect and furthermore also insight to the challenges of distributing material and information within a supply chain. I have applied the cause-effect theory in order to obtain an understanding of the root causes, the reasons, to why the bullwhip effect, the result, occurred in the supply chain in the LEGO game (Slack, Chambers and Johnston, 2010). Hence the structure of this assignment will be based upon a cause-effect analysis which treats the experienced bullwhip effect as the result. Thus this assignment describe the causes of this effect identified through reflecting upon the LEGO supply chain game played September 25, 2015. Bullwhip effect The bullwhip effect is unexpected distortion of information observed in a supply chain and can be caused by demand fluctuations e.g. variability, which is processed and amplified through the companies in a supply chain. The demand fluctuations are amplified as they are processed upstream in the supply chain and hence the swings, the demand order variability, of the “bullwhip” can be expected to increase the farther upstream in the supply chain a company is located (Lee, Padmanabhan and Wheng, 1997). Reflections and learning outcome from the game I will divide this reflection and learning outcome section in two parts; (1) Round 1 where each “function” in the supply chain operated individually and without information sharing; (2) Round 2 where we were allowed to share information and organize the collaboration...
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...bullwhip effect in supply chain: Reflections after a decade” . CELS 2008, Jönköping, Sweeden. (presented by EmreEryılmaz). Note: This is the final draft version of this paper. Please cite this paper (or this final draft) as above. You can download this final draft from http://research.sabanciuniv.edu. THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN Reflections after a Decade Gürdal Ertek, Emre Eryılmaz Sabancı University, Orhanlı, Tuzla, 34956, Turkey Abstract A decade has passed since the publication of the two seminal papers by Lee, Padmanabhan and Whang (1997) that describes the “bullwhip effect” in supply chains and characterizes its underlying causes. The bullwhip phenomenon is observed in supply chains where the decisions at the subsequent stages of the supply chain are made greedily based on local information, rather than through coordination based on global information on the state of the whole chain. The first consequence of this information distortion is higher variance in purchasing 1 quantities compared to sales quantities at a particular supply chain stage. The second consequence is increasingly higher variance in order quantities and inventory levels in the upstream stages compared to their downstream stages (buyers). In this paper, we survey a decade of literature on the bullwhip effect and present the key insights reported by researchers and practitioners. We also present our reflections and share our vision of possible future. Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Information...
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...BUULLWHIP EFFECT BACKGROUND The bullwhip effect occurs when the demand is amplified in the supply chain as they move up in the channels of the supply chain of a firm. Distorted information from one end of a supply chain to the other can lead to tremendous inefficiencies. Companies can effectively counteract the bullwhip effect by thoroughly understanding its underlying causes. Procter & Gamble (P&G) introduce this term. Logistics executives at Procter & Gamble (P&G) examined the order patterns for one of their best-selling products, Pampers. Its sales at retail stores were fluctuating, but the variabilities were certainly not excessive. However, as they examined the distributors' orders, the executives were surprised by the degree of variability. When they looked at P&G's orders of materials to their suppliers, they discovered that the swings were even greater. At first glance, the variability did not make sense. While the consumers, in this case, the babies, consumed diapers at a steady rate, the demand order variability in the supply chain were amplified as they moved up the supply chain. P&G called this phenomenon the "bullwhip" effect. (In some industries, it is known as the "whiplash" or the "whipsaw" effect.) Causes of the Bullwhip Effect Researchers found out that the factors which cause the bullwhip effect are the demand forecasting and amplification of oeders to the upper level of the supply chain. The best illustration of the bullwhip effect is the well known...
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...Causal reasoning in financial reporting and voluntary disclosure This paper examines causal reasoning, applying the theories to financial reporting. Causal reasoning involves diagnosis (determining the cause of an effect) and prediction (vice versa). These are important and commonplace amongst analysts, investors and management regarding company earnings and share prices. However, there is very little recent research employing causal reasoning theories to this field. Attribution theory describes how causes are attributed to past events. This may be dispositional (attributed to a person) or situational. In a single instance of an outcome, correspondent inference theory suggests diagnosis is based on choice, expectations and intent. Expected, freely chosen behaviour is considered to be dispositional, whereas unexpected, forced behaviour is attributed to situation. Attributing intent is simplest when considering behaviour with only one positive effect. When an outcome occurs numerous times, covariation theory describes possible cause attribution. This involves looking at cases where the suspected cause is present/absent and matching them to instances where the outcome is present/absent, utilising information on consensus (how others behave), distinctiveness (how the individual behaves in different circumstances) and consistency (how the individual has behaved in similar circumstances). Consistency should be high to make a good attribution judgement. When consensus and distinctiveness...
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...Powerscore CR Bible Notes: Chapter 2: The Basics of Critical Reasoning -Read the information in the given order. Read the stimulus first, then question stem and then the answer choices. Why? Sometimes reading a question stem first undermines a student’s ability to fully comprehend the stimulus especially on tougher questions. It often leads to time waste because students read the stem first then the stimulus and then back to the stem. Leads to confusions or distractions because sometimes the question stem refers to information in the stimulus which may throw you off. Stimuli with two questions will once again lead to time waste because you are not re-reading one question but two questions this time! Reading the stimulus sometimes enable readers to predict the question stem. For example, “Resolve the Paradox” type of CR questions usually contain an obvious paradox or discrepancy. However, when you read the question stem first, you are not gaining or saving time in anyway. Premises give the reasons why a conclusion should be accepted. Always ask yourself “What info is the author using to convince me? Why should I believe this argument or what is the evidence behind this conclusion?” Premise Indicators: because, since, for, for example, for the reason that, in that, given that, as indicated by, due to, owing to, this can be seen from, we know this by. Conclusion Indicators: thus, therefore, hence, consequently, as a result, so, accordingly, clearly, must...
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...management is to provide a high velocity flow of high quality, relevant information that will enable suppliers to provide an uninterrupted and precisely timed flow of materials to customers. In other worlds it would be responsible to put the right product and quantity, at the right place and at the right time. The logistic performance has a strong influence over the financial performance of the industrial companies and commercial. With the development, together with development of the information technology, among other factors, show up the possibility of supply chain managed, which is know as Supply Chain Management. It is very important to understand first the objectives of the Supply Chain Management therefore give a close up at the Bullwhip Effect and understand its causes and understand how to minimize it. 2. Bullwhip Effect Supply Chain coordination functions well as long as all stages of the chain take actions that together increase total supply chain profits. Each part of the chain should maintain its actions in a good relation to other participants and the supply chain in general and make decisions beneficial to the whole chain. If the coordination is weak or does not exist at all, a conflict of objectives appears among different participants, who try to maximize personal profits. Besides, all the relevant information for some reason can be unreachable to chain participants, or the information can get deformed in non-linear activities of some parts of chain which...
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...Essay 2 Cause and Effect Essay Assignment Description: This essay is a 5-paragraph, 3 page essay. The first paragraph is the introductory paragraph, the next three support the thesis and the 5th paragraph wraps up the essay. Review the information in Blackboard on Cause and Effect. Make sure that you are including details, using transitional words and phrases between sentences and paragraphs, and editing for grammar and punctuation. Here are the topics (chose one): Option #1: The cause and effect of the popularity (or lack of popularity) of a particular sport or public figure in the Unites States, Option #2 Cause/Effect of environmental issues—for example, failure to reduce pollution, the garbage crisis, difficulty of starting and maintaining recycling programs, concern about food safety Option #3 Cause/Effect related to the arts—for example, popularity of rap or jazz, decline of musical theater, impulse to censor the arts Option #4 The Cause/Effect of the continuing influence or popularity of a book, movie, actor, novelist, social activist, athlete, politician, religious leader, television program Option #5 Cause/effect of changes in economic conditions—for example, the increasing cost of medical care, decline in standard of living, increasing gap between wealthiest and poorest Americans Option #6 The cause/effect of a miscommunication or misunderstanding between two people or two groups. Option #7 Cause/effect of cheating on college exams. Option #7 Cause/effect of rising...
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...that Yaz has had such as negative effect on people that are using Yaz, as well as the generic counterpart which is Ocella. I will be discussing the side effects and how you can go about learning what you should do as a patient and your responsibilities. I will also talk about the releases of the information to our society. We protect the people and their rights of their own medical records. Yaz is a birth control pill that is for women overall to prevent pregnancy. However, there are some risks and affects you could have faced are facing with taking this drug. Yaz is a form of birth control that eliminates severe PMDD (Pre-menstrual dysphoric disorder) and acne in women which was released in 2006. Yaz is a form of contraceptive that was made for women to prevent pregnancy. It is known for this pill do be amazing for women. It is known that Yaz produces blood clots that can be harmful to a woman’s body. Yaz contains drospirenone, a fourth- generation progestin (Gilman Law, 2012,). This is how Yaz is different from other birth controls that are on the market for woman. Having drospirenone which is associated with hyperkalemia allows potassium levels to become high in the women’s body, which can result with blood clots in the body. Blood clots are the number one leading problem women are facing while taking this drug. It also interrupts the heart rhythms as well. It is known to harm a women’s body in ways we do not expect it to. This drug can cause serious injuries and can result...
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...Assignment 5 1. This case is aiming to analyze relevant root causes and associated counter-measures of the amplification phenomenon in service supply chains in order to improve the quality and flexibility of service processes because of that their study has a broader perspective. Based on their study, Akkermans and Vos confirmed the occurrence of upstream amplification of workload in the service supply chain, workload being a more appropriate measure for amplification effects in service supply chains than inventory levels. According to their case results, there weren’t able to find all root causes of “bullwhip effect” in this industry: batch ordering and shortage-gaming. The major root cause that could cause the bullwhip effect is Demand signaling and price fluctuations with emerging workload and quality as per Akkerman and Vos. Workload and Quality: It also goes hand in hand that when there is extra workload, quality suffers and vice versa. This causes the birth of rework which creates extra workload asking for more time, value and money creating accumulation or backlog causing more delays. Order batching: Batch ordering can not apply in the service supply chains where the intangible nature of services is because there is no way to hold inventories and also the delivery of services is essentially make-to-customer order. Because of the nature of services, order batching is not relevant as a root cause of amplification effects in service operations. Shortage gaming: Shortage gaming...
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...State the main idea in your own words. Is the essay focused on causes OR effects (these types of essays do not cover both)? A. It was very clear that the essay was about the causes of depression in winter and with winter comes the holiday season, which can cause a lot of stress and depression for some people. 2. Is the thesis clearly stated? Is the thesis effective (not an announcement, not too broad etc.)? What is or isn’t clear? How could it be improved? A. I think the thesis was very clear and there was a clear understanding that the cause of some of the depression was due to the stress of the holiday season, due to the cooking, cleaning and scrambling to get shopping done, along with the lack of sunlight. 3....
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...three different methods to effect the emotions of a reader. For instance, the use of cause and effect, in the essay, influences its reader through descriptive examples and demonstrations. In addition, “Being a Chink” uses comparison and contrast to affect the reader’s emotions by presenting different perspectives with which to view a situation. Furthermore, it contains definitions that give understanding to a word or phrase within a text. These methods allow the reader to become swayed...
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... |Last Updated by: (student name) | | | | |Date Created: (date) |Date Last Updated: (date) | |CAUSE AND EFFECT ANALYSIS |SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT OBJECTIVES | | | | |Problem or Opportunity |Causes and Effects |System Objective |System Constraint | | | | | | |1 |2 |3...
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...used a computer. Most of them spend a majority of their time to surf the net. They may use the internet to entertain e.g. playing online games. Besides, their education or might jobs require surfing the net. Some people blame it as a dangerous and tremendous waste of time. The others see the internet as an efficient teaching and learning tool for youths .From my point of view, everything has it’s benefits and drawbacks. The paragraphs below provide the positive and negative effects of teenagers and young adults surfing the net based on the causes mentioned above. One of the positive effects is that surfing the net can cause teens and young people to improve their knowledge. Internet is an effective teaching and learning tool. For instance, students could find materials to support an assignment which requires research. They can use the popular searching engine tools like Yahoo and Google or online libraries .Besides, there are some educational websites, such as Wikipedia which provides information on almost all topics. Hence, those who are...
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...explain the following terms: -High level information: information about the general situation. -Low level information: particular information about the situation. -Content: it is about a person, an organization or a whole industry. -Organisation: it is a story with a sequence of events happening one after the other, or it’s a description with no time sequence. -Language: it’s formal or informal, personal or impersonal. -Writer: one of the features of a case study which answers the question if it is a business studies lecturer or a journalist. -Reader: is the person writing for students or for the general public. -Purpose: it’s for education, entertainment or information. -Explain: make something clear or give reasons for something. -Compare: to look at the similarities between two things, for example a comparison of the sales growth or the management policies of two companies. -Essay: is a particular type of text written by students as a way of learning or for assessment purposes. -Simple cause-effect relationship: a simple one where one thing causes another. -Causal chain: where something leads to an effect which causes a second effect. -Multi-causality: where one cause may have several effects or one effect may have several causes. -Fraud: a method of getting money from a person illegally. -Lender: a company that lets people borrow money for a charge. -Credit reference agencies: companies that keep the information about a person’s credit history. -Individual...
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