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Ipo Grading and Future Stock Performance

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Program & Batch: | PGDM 2012-14 | Term: | VI | Course Name: | Predictive Modeling | Name of the faculty: | Dr. A K Chauhan | Topic/ Title : | The Significance of Rating in Primary Stock Market (The IPO Grading System): The Indian Experience | Original or Revised Write-up: | Original | Section, Group Number: | Section A, Group 8 | Contact No. and email of Group Coordinator: | 8750399936, sgr6714@gmail.com | Group Members: | Sl. | Roll No. | Name | | 1 | 12FN-109 | Saikat Ghosh Roy | | 2 | 12FN-114 | Sankhadeep Biswas | | 3 | 12FN-131 | Soumya Roy | | 4 | 12FN-138 | SubhenduMitra | | 5 | 12FN-026 | Aritra Raymukherjee | | 6 | 12FN-048 | Gaurav Garg | | 7 | 12IT-001 | AbhisekKarmakar | | 8 | | |

Contents Table of figures: 3 Introduction: 4 Hypotheses: 4 Hypotheses testing: 4
Descriptive Statistics: 4
Ho1: There is no difference in terms of investor’s response to all IPO Graded Issues. 5
Ho2: There is no difference in the IPO possessing different Grades in terms of Underpricing 6
Ho3: There is no relation between the IPO Grades and the Liquidity of the Issue on the listing Day 6
Ho4: There is no relation between IPO Grades and the IPOs Valuation 7 Impact of IPO grading on different Output Variables:Regression Analysis 9

Table of figures: Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of Age and frequency distribution for different IPO gradings 4 Table 2: Descriptive statistics for different subscriptions (times) against various gradings: 5 Table 3: Dependent variable: Overall subscription 5 Table 4: Dependent Variable: R_I_Subscription 5 Table 5: Dependent Variable: HNI_Subscription 5 Table 6: Dependent Variable: QIB_Subscription 6 Table 7: Listing Day Returns and Market adjusted returns means: 6 Table 18: Dependent Variable: issue_price_to_BV_Ratio 10

Introduction:
This study investigates the importance of IPO grading in influencing the investment decisions of retail, HNI and QIB investors. IPO’s are graded in India from 1-5. Here 5 refer to the highest grade. The purpose of IPO grading is to provide some sort of guidance to retail investors by proving information about an IPO, thus trying to diminish the information inefficiency in the market. This paper studies IPOs made by 130 companies since 2007, all of which were graded from 1-5, and attempts to test the following hypotheses:
Hypotheses:
Ho1: There is no difference in terms of investor’s response to all IPO Graded Issues.
Ho2: There is no difference in the IPO possessing different Grades in terms of Underpricing
Ho3: There is no relation between the IPO Grades and the Liquidity of the Issue on the listing Day.
Ho4: There is no relation between IPO Grades and the IPOs Valuation
Hypotheses testing:
These hypotheses are investigated one by one using 1-way ANOVA and regression analysis. All analysis has been done on SAS and MS excel.
Descriptive Statistics:
Table 1 provides descriptive statistics of the 130 IPO’s taken under consideration. The highest number of them, 50 has been graded 3, 36 have been graded 2, while 31, 10 and 3 have been graded 4, 1 and 5 respectively.
The table shows that in general, older companies get higher grading for their IPOs. The more the number of shares, better is the IPO grading.
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of Age and frequency distribution for different IPO grading Grading | N Obs | Variable | Mean | Std Dev | Minimum | Maximum | N | 1 | 10 | age | 18.2 | 16.4775942 | 5 | 52 | 10 | | | No_of_Issued_Shares | 7014782.1 | 2308004.39 | 3973908 | 10000000 | 10 | 2 | 36 | age | 15.9166667 | 8.3061939 | 2 | 40 | 36 | | | No_of_Issued_Shares | 10626457.64 | 13835027.21 | 2288889 | 83333333 | 36 | 3 | 50 | age | 19.62 | 22.8472211 | 2 | 149 | 50 | | | No_of_Issued_Shares | 76824053.56 | 243385369 | 2383768 | 1677374015 | 50 | 4 | 31 | age | 24.3225806 | 25.1242076 | 1 | 102 | 31 | | | No_of_Issued_Shares | 58249258.35 | 97677609.28 | 954198 | 415000000 | 31 | 5 | 3 | age | 32 | 19 | 11 | 48 | 3 | | | No_of_Issued_Shares | 223887939 | 353381830 | 6427378 | 631636440 | 3 |

Table 2: Descriptive statistics for different subscriptions (times) against various grading: Grading | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Overall_Subscription | 6.54851 | 6.3146083 | 17.454 | 20.5389 | 41.8299 | R_I_Subscription | 6.28046 | 4.3314972 | 7.8525 | 6.35522 | 19.3373 | HNI_Subscription | 13.26608 | 16.0674417 | 25.74 | 34.1872 | 105.468 | QIB_Subscription | 1.2472 | 4.981225 | 22.234 | 29.5627 | 40.9819 |

Table 2 above shows that higher grading of IPOs lead to higher overall subscriptions. It also shows that though subscription of HNI and QIB investors increase with grading, the effect on the investment decisions of retail investors is not apparent. Thus apparently, though IPO grading was supposed to help retail investors with better information, it appears that it is the HNI and QIB investors who give more weightage to IPO grading while investing in an IPO.
Ho1: There is no difference in terms of investor’s response to all IPO Graded Issues.
1 way ANOVA is used to test this hypothesis. The results are shown in table 3-6 below:
It can be concluded from the observations that except retail investors, all other investor groups’ response to an IPO is significantly influenced by the grade given to the same.
1 way- ANOVA: Independent Variable: Grading
Table 3: Dependent variable: Overall subscription Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 6837.86958 | 1709.46739 | 2.62 | 0.0378 | Error | 125 | 81433.14551 | 651.46516 | | | Corrected Total | 129 | 88271.01509 | | | |

Table 4: Dependent Variable: R_I_Subscription Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 752.75032 | 188.18758 | 1.31 | 0.2712 | Error | 125 | 18003.90195 | 144.03122 | | | Corrected Total | 129 | 18756.65227 | | | |

Table 5: Dependent Variable: HNI_Subscription Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 26199.4686 | 6549.8671 | 3.79 | 0.0061 | Error | 125 | 216236.7422 | 1729.8939 | | | Corrected Total | 129 | 242436.2108 | | | |

Table 6: Dependent Variable: QIB_Subscription Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 15249.8548 | 3812.4637 | 3.35 | 0.0121 | Error | 124 | 140997.5925 | 1137.0774 | | | Corrected Total | 128 | 156247.4472 | | | |

Ho2: There is no difference in the IPO possessing different Grades in terms of Underpricing.

Table 7: Listing Day Returns and Market adjusted returns means: Label | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Listing day Returns on the opening of the market (%) | 40% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 35% | Market Adjusted Listing Day Return (%) | 44% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 21% | Listing day Returns on the closing of the market (%) | 24% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 32% | Market Adjusted Listing day returns (%) | 35% | 15% | 20% | 9% | 19% |

Table 7 shows the actual and market adjusted listing day returns on the opening and closing price of the grade 1-5 IPOs. As can be inferred from the observations, IPO’s with grade 1 have a higher rate of return. However, the data is not decisive, and no clear trend is visible. Hence, nothing can be clearly inferred by just looking at the data. The null hypothesis is thus, not rejected.
Ho3: There is no relation between the IPO Grades and the Liquidity of the Issue on the listing Day.
Table 8: ANOVA for Liquidity and IPO Grading SUMMARY | | | | | | | Groups | Count | Sum | Average | Variance | | | 1 | 8 | 38.81729 | 4.852161 | 11.31875 | | | 2 | 34 | 144.7627 | 4.257726 | 9.680355 | | | 3 | 46 | 122.9013 | 2.671767 | 13.24601 | | | 4 | 27 | 41.3638 | 1.531993 | 3.301501 | | | 5 | 2 | 2.697947 | 1.348973 | 0.695001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ANOVA | | | | | | | Source of Variation | SS | df | MS | F | P-value | F crit | Between Groups | 149.8198 | 4 | 37.45496 | 3.879592 | 0.005458 | 2.452716 | Within Groups | 1081.288 | 112 | 9.654353 | | | | | | | | | | | Total | 1231.107 | 116 | | | | |
The result of table8 indicate that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the liquidity value on the listing day as * P value < 0.05 * Therefore we reject null hypothesis
Ho4: There is no relation between IPO Grades and the IPOs Valuation
1 Way ANOVA: Grading Independent variable

Table 9: Dependent Variable: PE_Ratio Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 1773675.4 | 443418.8 | 0.51 | 0.732 | Error | 125 | 109709558.5 | 877676.5 | | | Corrected Total | 129 | 111483233.9 | | | |

The results of table 9 indicate that the impact of IPO grades isnot significant on the PE ratio value of the IPO shares as * P value > 0.05 * We cannot reject the null hypothesis
Table 10: Dependent Variable: Book_Value Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 65240.7713 | 16310.1928 | 3.75 | 0.0065 | Error | 125 | 543804.7577 | 4350.4381 | | | Corrected Total | 129 | 609045.529 | | | |

The results of table 10 indicate that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the Book value of the IPO shares as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis
Table 11: Dependent Variable: PB_Ratio Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 115.924914 | 28.981229 | 0.91 | 0.4593 | Error | 109 | 3460.700197 | 31.749543 | | | Corrected Total | 113 | 3576.625112 | | | |

The results of table 11 indicate that the impact of IPO grades isnot significant on the PB ratio value of the IPO shares as * P value > 0.05 * We cannot reject the null hypothesis

Thus from the ANOVA tables we can say that there is a significant relationship between IPO grading and Book value of IPO shares but no such relationship exists neither between IPO grading and PE ratio of IPO shares nor between IPO grading and PB ratio of IPO shares.

In Table 12, the companies are analyzed in terms of their EPS and annualized Beta. The results indicate that IPO possessing higher IPO grades are having higher EPS whereas the beta values of all the IPO graded shares are same.

Table 12: Descriptive Statistics: Grading | N obs | Variable | Mean | N | 1 | 10 | EPS | 5.3666667 | 9 | | | Annual_Beta | 0.851 | 10 | 2 | 36 | EPS | 10.3791176 | 34 | | | Annual_Beta | 0.7251429 | 35 | 3 | 50 | EPS | 8.2997872 | 47 | | | Annual_Beta | 1.1036735 | 49 | 4 | 31 | EPS | 13.304 | 30 | | | Annual_Beta | 0.814 | 30 | 5 | 3 | EPS | 30.0633333 | 3 | | | Annual_Beta | 0.5766667 | 3 |

Regression Analysis:
Impact of IPO grading on different Output Variables
Independent Variable: Grading in all the linear regression models
Table 13: Dependent Variable: Overall_Subscription Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 121 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 13 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of Squares | Mean Square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 7340.4424 | 1835.1106 | 2.68 | 0.0352 | Error | 116 | 79521 | 685.52938 | | | Corrected Total | 120 | 86862 | | | |

Root MSE | 26.18262 | R-Square | 0.0845 | Dependent Mean | 15.71523 | Adj R-Sq | 0.0529 | CoeffVar | 166.60666 | | |

From the results of table 13, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the Overall subscription value of the IPO shares as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis

Table 14: Dependent Variable: R_I Subscription Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 121 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 13 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of squares | Mean square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 780.03296 | 195.00824 | 1.27 | 0.2843 | Error | 116 | 17756 | 153.07317 | | | Corrected Total | 120 | 18537 | | | |

Root MSE | 12.37227 | R-Square | 0.0421 | Dependent Mean | 7.01286 | Adj R-Sq | 0.009 | CoeffVar | 176.4227 | | |

From the results of table 14, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is not significant on the R_I subscription value of the IPO shares as * P value > 0.05 * We cannot reject the null hypothesis

Table 15: Dependent Variable: HNI_Subscription Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 121 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 13 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of squares | Mean square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 26804 | 6701.05563 | 3.69 | 0.0073 | Error | 116 | 210828 | 1817.4868 | | | Corrected Total | 120 | 237633 | | | |

Root MSE | 42.63199 | R-Square | 0.1128 | Dependent Mean | 27.56906 | Adj R-Sq | 0.0822 | CoeffVar | 154.63708 | | |

From the results of table 15, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the HNI subscription value of the IPO shares as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis

Table 16: Dependent Variable: QIB_Subscription Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 120 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 14 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of squares | Mean squares | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 16634 | 4158.53627 | 3.48 | 0.0101 | Error | 115 | 137399 | 1194.77403 | | | Corrected Total | 119 | 154033 | | | |

Root MSE | 34.5655 | R-Square | 0.108 | Dependent Mean | 19.26851 | Adj R-Sq | 0.077 | CoeffVar | 179.38853 | | |

From the results of table 16, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the QIB subscription value of the IPO shares as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis

Table 17: Dependent Variable: Liquidity_on_listing_day Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 117 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 17 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of square | Mean square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 149.81982 | 37.45496 | 3.88 | 0.0055 | Error | 112 | 1081.28759 | 9.65435 | | | Corrected Total | 116 | 1231.10741 | | | |

Root MSE | 3.10715 | R-Square | 0.1217 | Dependent Mean | 2.99609 | Adj R-Sq | 0.0903 | CoeffVar | 103.70654 | | |

From the results of table 17, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the Liquidity on listing day value as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis

Table 18: Dependent Variable: issue_price_to_BV_Ratio Number of Observations Read | 134 | Number of Observations Used | 113 | Number of Observations with Missing Values | 21 |

Analysis of Variance | Source | DF | Sum of squares | Mean square | F Value | Pr > F | Model | 4 | 182.98202 | 45.7455 | 2.39 | 0.055 | Error | 108 | 2063.9477 | 19.11063 | | | Corrected Total | 112 | 2246.92972 | | | |

Root MSE | 4.4 | R-Square | 0.0814 | Dependent Mean | 3.2 | Adj R-Sq | 0.0474 | CoeffVar | 135 | | |

From the results of table 18, we can say that the impact of IPO grades is significant on the issue_price_to_BV_Ratio value of the IPO shares as * P value < 0.05 * We can reject the null hypothesis

So from the regression analysis, we can say that there is a relation between IPO grading and the following: * HNI subscription to IPO * QIB subscription to IPO * Overall subscription to IPO * Liquidity on listing day of IPO * Issue price to BV ratio of IPO shares

But there is no significant relationship between IPO grading and Retail investors’ subscription to IPO.

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