...about government, it becomes difficult to hold political leaders accountable for their performance. Unfortunately, public knowledge about politics is disturbingly low. In addition, the public also often does a poor job of evaluating the political information they do know. This state of affairs has persisted despite rising education levels, increased availability of information thanks to modern technology, and even rising IQ scores. It is mostly the result of rational behavior, not stupidity. Such widespread and persistent political ignorance and irrationality strengthens the case for limiting and decentralizing the power of government. The Extent of Ignorance Political ignorance in America is deep and widespread. The current government shutdown fight provides some good examples. Although Obamacare is at the center of that fight and much other recent political controversy, 44% percent of the public do not even realize it is still the law. Some 80 percent, according to a recent Kaiser survey, say they have heard “nothing at all” or “only a little” about the controversial insurance exchanges that are a major part of the law. The shutdown controversy is also just the latest manifestation of a longstanding political struggle over federal spending. But most of the public has very little idea of how federal spending is actually distributed. They greatly underestimate the percentage that goes to entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security, and vastly overestimate that...
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...Mike Morgan PSC 403: Public Policy Final Exam April 13, 2011 Causes of the Great Recession The Great Recession was something terrible and ugly in the making. This creature had been brewing since the late 70’s and was as fierce as ever by 2007. The Great Recession of 2008-09 has not one cause but several that were clearly underestimated by those in charge as well as average citizens of this country. The left will argue that there was a complete lack of regulation put in place to observe what was happening with mortgage lending. Robert J. Samuelson believes that “there was enough oversight that alert regulators should have spotted problems and intervened to stop dubious lending” (Samuelson, 19). They also say that there were numerous incentives for regulators and investors to ignore the risks that were being taking, which entails a tremendous amount of greed on their part of the matter. The left also states that there was a ‘mindless devotion to free markets’. Now their opponents on the right side of the fence will argue that interest rates had been too low for too long, and that the housing bubble had to pop eventually. They also insisted that the government’s housing policy was to get as many citizens to purchase a house as possible. They used tax incentives, rebates, and low interest rates to get homebuyers to act. I felt it was important to mention what the left and the right believed caused the Great Recession of 2008-09. Once we look at this disaster from...
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...Lecture Notes Module 1 Chapter 1 Slide 1 Welcome to MBA 5300 Organizational Behavior. During the next six weeks we will be exploring the theoretical and practical application of the tools that we use in business to create a successful culture. We’ll be looking at individual and group behavior as it applies in an organizational setting. We will look at organizational theory and apply that theory to teams, motivation, leadership, and the analysis of an organization in a group setting an in an individual paper. Please be sure that you have read the course syllabus and understand each of the assignments and the weeks they are due. Also, those assignments are summarized on the assignment check sheet, and they are summarized on the grading information sheet. So, you have three different places you can reference when you are determining the requirements for each week. If you do have any questions, please be sure you e-mail or phone me as early as possible so that you can be successful in this course. Slide 2 What is Organizational Behavior? Well, it’s easy to say that it is the way an organization behaves. What does that really mean? Let’s look at how organizations behave. Are they ethical? Do they value people? Those are two key characteristics. What about communications (both internal and external)? When you are looking for a position, what type of company do you want to work for? So you only look at the salary? Or do you examine the organization by talking...
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...and contrasts the idea of utopian economics with reality based economics. Reality based economics encompass people’s behaviors and thinking identifying irrational self-interests (Cassidy, 9). Cassidy then explains in detail how economic theory and practice influenced the “Great Crunch” (i.e. collapse in sub-prime mortgage lending during last decade). The timeliness of Cassidy’s publication of a book to address how markets fail is certainly ideal in light of the recent crash in sub-prime mortgages. The financial impact of this economic crisis continues to dictate the pace of the current economy. Not only is the topic stimulating to a graduate MBA student, but has value to inform and enlighten individuals in all disciplines. Cassidy uses the history of economics over the last few decades to demonstrate that his idea of utopian economics versus reality based economics is not new, but has been forgotten and/or consciously overlooked in the interest of other gains causing historical cycles of economic crisis. Cassidy’s political views are evident and he does not...
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...policy in addition to careless behavior on the part of both lenders and borrowers, along with poor corporate governance can be linked to the massive subprime loans that ultimately turned into the subprime crisis. Self-interest by subprime lenders and Government Sponsored Entities (Fannie Mae) are also liable for escalating the crisis. Among these factors, here I will mainly discuss three principal causes that have come to my attention; the housing price bubble, poor governmental oversee, and the subprime mortgage-lending boom that it fed. The Housing Bubble: From 1980 to 1997 the real price of housing in the United States had remained relatively stable. After controlling for inflation and differences in house size and quality, we still see that the average price of a home in 1997 was only 2% more than the average price one century earlier. This flat trend had ultimately ended beginning in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. When the housing prices had peaked in 2006, the average price was close to twice the long-term average price from 1980 to 1997. Only six years later did the price return the long-term trend (Shiller Housing Price Index). The origin of the housing bubble is much similar to prior price bubbles. A real increase in demand caused a gradual rise in price, which soon elevated to a rapid speculative price spike. In the late 1990’s, most Americans who had mutual funds, stocks, or other investments in the stock market had seen their wealth increase significantly...
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...Vanessa Heber November 17, 2010 SOCI 202 (LW): Canadian Families: Past, Present, and Future Danita Kagan Research/Analytical Review Paper McDonaldization Research Paper In a world where society is so influenced by technological advancements and materialistic possessions and where most people are often inclined to decide the way the live their lives, purchase items and what values and beliefs they follow based on brands, brand characteristics and brand values. We see many North Americans follow a way of life based on brands they connect with such as those who are Nike lovers; most often turn into what the brand stands for. They have a love for athletics, they always must show high performance in more than just sports and always exert a sense of authenticity in their lifestyle, but most importantly they live their lives in a “just do it” mentality. Yet even further social institutions that affiliate around the Nike lifestyle tend to have this same sense of rationalization. However, Nike is a brand that has had a small influence on those who are the brands consumer, when compared to some larger more influential brands. Yet there is one brand, with high global reach that triumphs all brands. This brand is the largest fast-food chain worldwide and the most influential brand in North Americans particularly; this brand is of course McDonalds. In The McDonaldization Thesis: Is Expansion Inevitable written by George Ritzer, Ritzer reveals that on a global scale the brand personality...
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...time and seen as morally justifiable for the correct reasons but this is simply not true because war is completely irrational, does not accomplish anything and a long forgone dated practice. War has been a common practice of killing to accomplish a task such as peace but this practice is irrational. As James Boswell states in On War “It is as if two towns in opposite territories should be set on fire at the same time, and the victory should be declared to the inhabitants of that in which the flames were least destructive”. Boswell uses this simile to compare war to burning towns to show that the practice of murder and destruction of fellow humans is irrational. This simile shows that conflict should not be solved by senseless killing which leaves both parties at...
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...commit the offense. According to several researchers only 1 percent of criminal cases in the United States use the insanity defense. Even though the insanity defense is only used in 1 percent of the criminal cases, it has a success rate of 33 percent in the cases that it has been applied in. Not guilty by reason of insanity is determined if it can be proved that at the time the defendant committed the offense, he/she was unaware or unable to control what they were doing, because a mental...
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...© 2002 American Accounting Association Accounting Horizons Vol. 16 No. 3 September 2002 pp. 233–243 COMMENTARY The “Incomplete Revelation Hypothesis” and Financial Reporting Robert J. Bloomfield Robert J. Bloomfield is an Associate Professor at Cornell University. INTRODUCTION The most common form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) states that market prices fully reflect all publicly available information (Fama 1970). The EMH has been highly influential among academics, but practitioners and regulators appear unconvinced. Investors work hard to identify mispriced stocks on the basis of public data, or pay others to do so, even though the EMH asserts that such efforts are wasted. Managers seek to boost stock prices by hiding bad news in footnotes, and regulators work hard to defeat such efforts, even though the EMH asserts that information is reflected in prices no matter how obscure its presentation. Beliefs about inefficiency play a central role in the debate over recognizing expenses for incentive stock options. Opponents of expensing argue that the resulting lower net income will inappropriately reduce market prices, while proponents argue the market does not fully recognize compensation costs reported only in footnotes. In efficient markets, however, expensing these costs has no direct effect on prices, as long as the details of the compensation are included in footnotes. The decision to expense option costs could reduce stock price indirectly, even in efficient...
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...The Art of Thinking Clearly Critical Review Colby Wallace Northern Alberta Institute of Technology Abstract This paper is a critical review on Rolf Dobelli’s novel, The Art of Thinking Clearly. It is composed of a literature review and a critical analysis. The literature review section will be a composition of research gathered to: have a better understanding of the books sources, test for sloppy reasoning and get a good understanding of how the book is perceived through reviews. All research will be done through the novel itself, N.A.I.Ts library database and reputable online sources. The information found in the literature review will then be evidence used to determine the answers to the seven key critical questions: 1. What is the source of the article? 2. What kind of publication is it for what audience? 3. What is the main point (thesis) of the article? 4. Are there any new insights about the topic that you did not have before reading it? 5. Do you agree or disagree with its position and evaluation of the topic? 6. How reliable is this particular source as a guide to the truth of the topic? 7. Also, which, if any, of the sloppy reasoning errors can be found in the article? The paper will close with a conclusion that reiterates the papers key points. The Art of Thinking Clearly Critical Review Dobelli, R. (2013). The Art of Thinking Clearly. London: Sceptre. The Art of Thinking Clearly (TAOTC) takes a philosophical look at...
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...harder than ever and basically becoming the machines. This shows how Populist view of evil Eastern influence on honest labor which could hardly be more pointed. The one thing bad about being made of all tin is that when it rains you start to rust. From the point of being a worker over time you start to put too much on your body and your body starts to give out. The Lion in the book and movie was the character that wanted to have courage. The Lion represents Bryan himself. In 1896 Bryan lost the election to become the Eastern laborer. Bryan feels like he lost because his competitor pressured the voters by having all of his workers believe in him. The Lion was being used to show the importance of silver. Silver is worth a lot and should be used for important things. Neither did the Lion or Bryan understand this concept. Baum shows that Dorothy is adventurist and has fantasy to the real world of heartbreak and desolation through the power of silver. Silver was powerful to everyone no matter what social class you were in. The Scarecrow in the book and movie that wants to have real brains to replace the common straw that...
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...is very clear from the very word "Absurd" that it means nonsensical, opposed to reason, something silly, foolish, senseless, ridiculous So, a drama having a cock and bull story would be called an absurd play. Moreover, a play having loosely constructed plot, unrecognizable characters, metaphysical called an absurd play. Actually the 'Absurd Theatre' believes that humanity's plight is purposeless in an existence, which is out of harmony with its surroundings. This thing i.e. the awareness about the lack of purpose produces a state of metaphysical anguish which is the central theme of the Absurd Theatre. On an absurd play logical construction, rational ideas and intellectually viable arguments are abandoned and instead of these the irrationality for experience is acted out on the stage. The above mentioned discussion allows us to call "Waiting for Godot" as an absurd play for not only its plot is loose but its characters are also just mechanical puppets with their incoherent colloquy. And above than all, its theme is unexplained. "Waiting for Godot" is an absurd play for it is devoid of characterization and motivation. Though characters are present but are not recognizable for whatever they do and whatever they present is...
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...satisfy what they wanted but instead to live for others. Rand suggests that groups of people should never make groups for individuals. The society is found to go back to time of pre-Enlightenment where people with a lot of talent and power for instance Equality 7-2521 are encouraged to waste their talent. In the end of it all, equality 7-2521 rejects all people of collectivism. 2. Love The second theme that comes up is Love. The collectivist culture Equality 7-2521 makes it look as if designed to remove meaningful and personal relationships. This was so bad that people were afraid to speak what they thought. In the name of equality, there is an end of personal bonds. It is so serious that it dictates the intimate act of sex to once a year. Rand believes that relationships, which were developed under it, were plain and very unfulfilling. True relationships need a combination of ones ego. She finds fault with people supporting collectivism for supporting freedom and equality into something meaningless. When she realizes the power his ego possessed, Equality 7-2521, “I am neither foe nor friend to my brothers, but such as each of them shall deserve of me. Moreover, to earn my love, my brothers must do more than to have been born. I do not grant my love without reason, nor to any chance passer-by who may wish to claim it. I honor men with my love. But honor is a thing to be earned.” 3. Irrationality against Reason While conducting an experiment in the tunnel, Equality 7-2521 rediscovered...
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...equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational capacities. In this article I review models of fast and frugal inference, that is, satisficing strategies whose task is to infer unknown states of the world (without relying on computationaly expensive procedures such as multiple regression). Fast and frugal inference is a form of bounded rationality (Simon, 1982). I begin by explaining what bounded rationality in human inference is not. 1. Bounded Rationality is Not Irrationality In his chapter in John Kagel and Alvin Roth’s Handbook of Experimental Economics (1995), Colin Camerer explains that “most research on individual decision making has taken normative theories of judgment and choice (typically probability rules and utility theories) as null hypotheses about behavior,” and has labeled systematic deviations from these norms “cognitive illusions” (p. 588). Camerer continues, “The most fruitful, popular alternative theories spring from the idea that limits on computational ability force people to use simplified procedures or ‘heuristics’ that cause systematic mistakes (biases) in problem solving, judgment, and choice. The roots of this approach are in Simon’s (1955) distinction between substantive rationality (the result of normative maximizing models) and procedural rationality.” (p. 588) In the preface to their anthology, Daniel Kahneman,...
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...Overview Momentum is a phenomenon shows that well-performed stocks continue to outperform their peers while poor-performed stocks continue to underperform. Thus, more mutual funds use this powerful strategy to draw a broad range of investors by getting higher risk-adjusted returns. AQR is a hedge fund based in Greenwich, Connecticut, offering investing products that applies price phenomenon known as momentum. This case study enables investors to get a closer look at AQR’s momentum fund. Comparison of momentum specifications In order to analyze the momentum effect of different specifications, stocks were divided into ‘winner’ stocks and ‘loser’ stocks according to their rankings. From the data we can see that the decile spread portfolio return is the highest among these momentum specifications. One may argue that the spread between decile 10 and decile 1 is largest and it also has the highest volatility. After adjusting for volatility (using Sharpe Ratio), the decile spread momentum advantage is reduced but still very significant. According to Figure 1.1 and 1.2, raw spread returns witness a sharp decrease as the chosen percentile of highest and lowest stock return increases. After adjusted by volatility, the difference becomes flatter but still significant. From the graphs we can see that the volatility-adjusted return of decile spread is higher than the UMD spread, which means buying top 10% winner stocks and shorting bottom 10% loser stocks earns more profit than buying...
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