...Financial Econometrics Modeling and Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Abstract In this project we will model and forecast the natural gas prices over the short-term through the development of the Error Correction Model (ECM). This is presented as the best predictive model among various alternatives. To build this model, we gathered the oil prices to analyze the impact of the changes in these prices on the changes in natural gas prices. The results of the forecasting exercise, carried out using the US Natural Gas 3 Months Strips series, suggest that the forecasting approach can be used to obtain a performance measure for the price. Key words: ARMA; ECM; Cointegration; Forecasting; Natural Gas Prices; Oil Prices. JEL Classification: G17 Index 1- Introduction – The Natural Gas ............................................................................................................... 3 2- Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................................................ 4 3- Empirical Model ....................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1- Methodology – the data .......................................................................................................... 5 3.2- The Model ................................................................................................................................ 6...
Words: 10458 - Pages: 42
...Batman Colorado Cinema killing Based on a true story The room was over heated as always. James had never liked coming here, always felt uncomfortable. The room would have been cosy with its rugged floor, woollen chairs, oak wood furniture and leather books sitting peacefully in their thousands on the shelves, had it not being for that sense of concealment and that lack of air, which made James so uncomfortable. The doctor, a small woman in her fifties with rectangular spectacles looked up from behind a lubricous luxurious oak desk as James and Heath entered. "Ah, James how good of you to pay me a visit, please sit down " she said, pointing to the woollen chair on the other side of the desk. James who sat down as requested looked up slightly at Heath. Heath looked very much the same as James a young man no more than twenty five, in good shape, however, the only difference was that Heath had long shiny blonde hair while James had dull brown hair. Also Heath's face was so pale that James had always suspected him of wearing make-up. Both boys were medical students at the University of Colorado, and after James's "incident" on the roof where he had questionably tried to "kill himself", the University's magistrate had, as James putted it “sentenced” him to a year’s consultation with the university's shrink, Dr Lynne Fenton, who James had to visit every two weeks. "So James, has everything being going well?” asked the shrink, “yes" he slowly murmured trying to avoid eye contact. "And...
Words: 1043 - Pages: 5
...Chosen Audience: I chose to write to anyone out there interested in a military love story tragedy. This is meant to entertain and fill my audience with emotion. Love Means Forever From birth, Jaquelyn and William were attatched at the hip. Their mothers, whom were best friends since early childhood always said their children would be best friends. The two young women Aly and Gracelyn met in elementary school one chilly fall day on the playground. They were born and raised in a small farming town and spent almost every waking moment playing together, talking about the boys they were crushing on, and their futures as wives and mothers raising their children together. The highschool they attended was very small. No more than 100 other students in their class. It was hard for them to meet boys and they always fanticised about moving away and meeting the men of their dreams. They eventually met two young farmer boys from their highschool that stole their hearts. The four of them spent every moment together, whether it was sneaking out to watch the stars twinkle or going for midnight swims, they all made the best of things. They spent 3 magical summers together. Coming from the small town, there wasn't much to do so they had to create their own fun. They would go horseback riding, mudding in the boys trucks, or make a romantic picnic for four by the stream out in the woods. The young girls wondered and hoped they would be engaged by the time graduation came around...
Words: 1573 - Pages: 7
...kneel here before the gods and the thought of what I am about to do stings my eyes like incense. I can already hear the protest from Pearl’s ballet teachers – “you can’t do this, she is an extraordinary talent.” The gods give with one hand and take with the other, I 5 think, and then, ashamed, immediately touch my forehead to the ground before the triple Buddhas. The gods must forgive my lack of insight. But how could those teachers understand that we had originally allowed Pearl to dance only because we had no place else to put her? Her father and I spent our waking hours at the factory in Chinatown. Pearl was too young, or so I argued, to breathe in that clogged air, thick with fabric dust 10 that clung to our skin like a veil, turning even our sweat the colour of the garments we worked on. And somehow the consequences of that initial instinct to protect her have branched out through the years, sprouting and twisting, to arrive at this moment. I suppose I spoiled her but she is my only girl. And she seemed so tiny when we first came to America, bundled into her red sweater and sent off to second grade alone. [...] 15 In the beginning, we tried to leave her alone at home after school. I had no one in this country, relative or neighbour, to look after her and we could not spare a moment from the work at the factory. It’s only for a few hours, I told myself, and she knows not to play with the stove and such, but I could not stand coming home to see her little face in the window...
Words: 1115 - Pages: 5
...Our Little Piece of Heaven Janet Vint ENG 121 Professor Adam Deutsch January 25, 2013 As I sit and think of all the places that I love, our front porch is the one place that sticks out the most. No matter what season, there is nothing better than taking in all the wonderful sights and sounds of my neighborhood. Our front porch is an awesome place to sit back and relax while you enjoy the wonderful smelling flowers during spring, the warm breeze of a summer night or listening to the crunch of the leaves during the fall. Our front porch is the gathering place for my family to come and relax, whether it is with a soothing drink, a Stephen King book, to take a break from life’s obstacles or to watch my son play carefree. No matter the season, or the reason, our front porch offers comfort, relaxation and memories to all who visit. One spring, several years ago, we had purchased new porch furniture and could not wait to get home with it and try it out. Later that day, my husband and I began to sit down in the enormous fluffy tan cushions on the swing; we both turned around at the same time and looked at each with our heads laid back and started laughing hysterically. We could not believe the difference it made by just some new furniture. We sat there for a while taking in all the surroundings, from the bright red cardinals flying back and forth carrying on conversations, to the distant sound and smell of someone that was cutting their grass for the first time that season. The...
Words: 786 - Pages: 4
...How an accident can change lives forever Was November 8, 2009, a beautiful sunny afternoon for a November. Recovering from a prior surgery, I was on the porch taking to my husband as he cleaned up the flower bed, and did yard work. I haven’t been on the motorcycle all summer due to a prior surgery, my husband and I him, hawed most the morning about taking the bike out for one last ride and check out the tearing down of the old American Hoist building, after much thought, we decided to go. In a dazed blurry state I could hear and see red/blue flashing lights, yellow tape, and the hurried panic voices of people saying “tape that section off”, “ambulance is on its way”, “stop her from moving”, “there’s another victim over there”, “sir sit down don’t move”. Then in a flash it seemed we were in the ER and my children standing around me crying and holding my hand as the nurses and doctors prep me for surgery. I tried several times to ask about my husband, finally I was able to blurt it out, as well as to comfort my children, and assure them I was going to be ok as they told me “dad is in the other room and is ok, he is concerned about you” “he too is being prepped for surgery”. The hospital staff would not let us see each other. Then another flash, I was in a hallway and there was my husband holding up his arm, it looked like a stair case as he smiled and told me he loved me and would see me really soon… After two days of hospitalization my husband checked himself out...
Words: 614 - Pages: 3
...Case Study: CNX Nifty Midcap Index Descriptive statistics A. Closing price 1. Normality Test – non-normal distribution 2. Stationarity test for Log returns – series is stationary Null Hypothesis: LOG_RETURNS has a unit root | | Exogenous: Constant | | | Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=23) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | t-Statistic | Prob.* | | | | | | | | | | | Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic | -35.96681 | 0.0000 | Test critical values: | 1% level | | -3.434655 | | | 5% level | | -2.863328 | | | 10% level | | -2.567771 | | | | | | | | | | | | *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. | | | | | | | | | | | | Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation | | Dependent Variable: D(LOG_RETURNS) | | Method: Least Squares | | | Date: 11/03/10 Time: 16:06 | | | Sample (adjusted): 1/04/2005 11/02/2010 | | Included observations: 1449 after adjustments | | | | | | | | | | | | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | LOG_RETURNS(-1) | -0.944031 | 0.026247 | -35.96681 | 0.0000 | C | 0.000692 | 0.000484 | 1.429639 | 0.1530 | | | | | | | | | | | R-squared | 0.472016 | Mean dependent var | 1.64E-07 | Adjusted R-squared | 0.471651 | S.D. dependent var | 0.025333 | S.E. of regression | 0.018414 | Akaike info criterion | -5.150009 | Sum squared resid | 0.490653...
Words: 2133 - Pages: 9
...Kaitlyn Simpson W0436017 Dr. Gibson English 231-04 Archaic Lore in “The Horse Dealer’s Daughter” and “The Dead” Intro: Id texts and subject. Thesis: D.H. Lawerence and James Joyce use archaic lore in their stories “The Horse Dealers Daughter”, and “The Dead”. Storytakes place in English midlands, four sibling late 20’s sittng around family home. -- D. H. Lawrence’s stories have the sense that they’re ritualistic; his rough home life. He had a God awful dysfunctional family. His mom and dad were polar opposites which caused them to Fight battle through the kids. In early 20’s he got ill, and diagnosis 100 years ago tuberculosis. It was incurable then. . He knew he was dying therefore he decided he wouldn’t waste what he had. He sought out the things that were really important. A deeper meaning in life “savage pilgrimage,” he traveled around the world. He was looking for the power spots. One of the things he realized was there were also power centers within everyone of us. All over the planet ancient patterns that play out over and over. In D. H. Lawrences’ writings he explains a very archaic belief--that there are energy vortices within all of us. These power centers are located in our spiritual bodies, and are known as “chakras”. But as Lawrence explains, in most of us, there is a tremendous imbalance in the way the chakras are activated, and this imbalance causes various problems, neuroses, and complexes in our lives. In “The Horse Dealer’s Daughter” D.H. Lawrence...
Words: 1503 - Pages: 7
...Sebastian Estrada PHIL 3360: Environmental Ethics Dr. Vicki Toscano Issues paper#1 Anthropocentrism vs. Biocentrism 1/26/2012 The Historical Roots of our ecologic crisis is an article written by Lynn T. White, Jr. published in the journal Science in 1966. White was a medieval scholar and in this article he blames technology, Christianity, and anthropocentrism as the “Roots” of our ecologic crisis. He states, “All forms of life modify their contexts,” but believes that this modification should be for the good of the earth like the coral polyp. He states Man must coexist with nature. Man had always been a dynamic element in harmony with the earth. This all changed sometime around the 1850 when the “Baconian Creed” of scientific knowledge started influencing the people. As a result man began to exploit the earth through new advents in technology. White cites the invention of the eight-oxen plow as the beginning of man’s “ruthlessness” towards nature. White continues to argue that Christian Axioms fueled this newfound exploitive attitude towards earth. To White, Christianity’s story of creation and notion that “no item in the physical creation had any purpose save to serve man’s purpose (White).” only served to justify these actions and put Christianity as “the most anthropocentric religion the world has seen.” White continues to argue that simply applying more science and more technology to our ecologic crisis is not going to solve the problem. To him the issue is essentially...
Words: 1154 - Pages: 5
..."There is no more miserable human being than one in whom nothing is habitual but indecision (James)." Originally appearing in Dubliners, a compilation of vignettes by James Joyce, his short story Eveline is the tale of such an unfortunate individual. Anxious, timid, scared, perhaps even terrified -- all these describe Eveline. She is a frightened, indecisive young woman poised between her past and her future. Eveline loves her father but is fearful of him. She tries to hold onto good memories of her father, thinking "sometimes he could be very nice (Joyce 5)," but has seen what her father has done to her siblings when he would "hunt them in out of the field with his blackthorn stick (Joyce 4)." As of late she has begun to feel "herself in danger of her father's violence (Joyce 4)." Ironically, her father has "begun to threaten her and say what he'd do to her only for her dead mother's sake (Joyce 5)." Eveline wants a new life but is afraid to let go of her past. She dreams of a place where "people would treat her with respect (Joyce 4)" and when contemplating her future, hopes "to explore a new life with Frank (Joyce 5)." When, in a moment of terror she realizes that "she must escape (Joyce 6)," it seems to steel her determination to make a new home for herself elsewhere. On the other hand, she is comfortable with the "familiar objects from which she had never dreamed of being divided (Joyce 4)." She rationalizes that: "In her home ...
Words: 349 - Pages: 2
...Spies have many predicaments that arise different issues in their lives. Such issues as personal life issues, ability to trust, and loyalty and betrayal problems play a huge part in the way a spy can carry on their lives. Focusing in on the issues regarding loyalty and betrayal, we can see that in the novel, “Cause for Alarm” by Eric Ambler, the main character Nick Marlow Encounters many problems regarding these spy problems. Marlow is involved in a few different parties and with the variety of involvement comes with vast issues regarding who and what he is actually loyal to, and whom he is betraying in regards to his actions that he takes throughout the novel. One of the early loyalty issues we come across through this novel is when Marlow decides to take the job of going to Italy and selling the machine parts to the enemies of his home country of England. To some it would be viewed as betraying your country by aiding the enemy with their munitions processing. By the Italian government have a huge hand in buying Marlow’s product, he is helping out the enemy and he is in a large state of betrayal. Marlow insists that by doing what he is doing is just his job, and he has no moral or political positioning in what he does, just simply that he is doing it because he is doing what his employer has asked him to do. Marlow states his loyalty to his employer by saying “ My company purchases my loyalty by paying me to represent it,”(95) This suggests that Marlow is bluntly showing...
Words: 1273 - Pages: 6
...My inspiration to become a police officer came from watching the movie “Mall Cop” in 2009. A little introduction to what this movie is all about, this movie was starred by Kevin James who plays a role of a middle-aged man, a single parent living with his teenage daughter and works as a security guard in a shopping mall. His was Paul Blart, the mall’s security officer. Paul Blart aspires to become a member of the New Jersey State Police. However, due to his health conditions, he could not go through the admissions exams successfully. This movie has inspire me in a way on how one can become so dedicated into serving the people and doing good deeds. I have always wanted to dress smartly, to look professional in uniforms and also to serve the society that we live in today. I have always had the urge to wanting to keep the world we live in today save and secured from all harms. I have always seen myself in the mirror as the hero of the people. In this movie, his duty and responsibility as a mall officer had further inspired me and showed how to never give up in life when faced with adversity. Given his health conditions, he is still dedicated and willing to take upon such challenging job in life, dedicating his life on the line into saving others. This was clearly shown when a gang of criminals suddenly broke into the mall through the service entrance at a bank inside the mall. Blart, who was told to leave the mall immediately when this situation occurred, did not leave and yet decides...
Words: 462 - Pages: 2
...(that gave out this power) was unconstitutional set the precedent for the Supreme Court to have the power to declare a law unconstitutional with the principle of judicial review. With this decision, he gave the Judiciary Branch as much power as the other two branches, and also stressed the power of the national government over the states. Without this decision, the states could be the final authority in determining if laws are unconstitutional and federalism would have been minimized. The states would not respect the decisions of the federal government. In this case, William Marbury, a Federalist and a “midnight appointment” of President John Adams, did not receive his commission from the new Secretary of State under Thomas Jefferson, James Madison. Marbury asked the Supreme Court to issue a “writ of mandamus” forcing Madison to deliver his commission. Marshall dismissed suit, but in doing so struck down part of Judiciary Act of 1789 because the Supreme Court had no authority to give Marbury his commission. This was significant because it established the precedent of “judicial review” and that the Supreme Court, not states, had power to declare laws of Congress unconstitutional. Before this case, the Supreme Court had been the weakest of the three branches of government, and the belief was that the states could nullify a law if they did not agree with it. This is because the Constitution does not explicitly state that the Supreme Court has the power to determine if laws are...
Words: 530 - Pages: 3
...The story centres on Gabriel Conroy on the night of the Morkan sisters' annual dance and dinner in the first week of January 1904, perhaps the Feast of the Epiphany (January 6). Typical of the stories in Dubliners, "The Dead" develops toward a moment of painful self-awareness; Joyce described this as an epiphany. The narrative generally concentrates on Gabriel's insecurities, his social awkwardness, and the defensive way he copes with his discomfort. The story culminates at the point when Gabriel discovers that, through years of marriage, there was much he never knew of his wife's past. JOYCE HOUSE, the fictional Morkan sisters' home. 15 Usher's Island, Dublin. Upon arriving at the party with his wife, Gabriel makes a joke that is not funny about the maid's marriage prospects; and he fidgets, adjusts his clothing, and offers her money as a holiday present. Not long after that, he gets flustered again when his wife pokes fun at him over a conversation they had earlier, in which he had forced her to wear galoshes for the bad weather. With such episodes, Gabriel is depicted as particularly pathetic. Similarly, Gabriel is unsure about quoting a poem from the poet Robert Browning when he is giving his dinner address, as he is afraid to be seen as pretentious. But, at the same time, Gabriel considers himself above the others when he speculates that his audience would not understand the words he uses. Later, when giving the traditional holiday toast, Gabriel overcompensates for...
Words: 652 - Pages: 3
...Essay on Essay Analysis on The Movie "The Terminator" For the purposes of this essay I have chosen The Terminator, a science fiction B-movie feature from 1984. Although I intend mainly to study this purely as a single film, I do intend to study Terminator 2 in addition, thus making the essay a study of the series. In addition, I will be contrasting the theory written surrounding these films in relation to other contemporary postmodern theory, and as a result will be mentioning several other films by way of a comparison or contrast. The Terminator seems quite remarkable to me, for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of many action films I watched in my early teens; a considerable number of which, like this film, starred the Austrian body-builder turned actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. What is so different about The Terminator though, is that unlike most of these films, this movie has enough depth and substance that, not only does it still bear watching now that I am older, but it also has an archive of academic theory written about it. The Terminator tells of a cyborg, a human shaped machine coated in flesh, that is sent back in time, from an apocalyptic future in which machines have 'got smart' and acted on their own to destroy the human race. The cyborg's mission is to assassinate the mother of the human's great leader, the man who taught the survivors to fight back against the machines. The woman, a young waitress named Sarah Connor, is protected only by a lone warrior...
Words: 1075 - Pages: 5