...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...Leadership Development Seminars and ECQ-based Readings The success or failure of any endeavor depends on leadership. Now, more than ever before, we need leaders in our organizations and in our world. Great leaders create and communicate a vision and move people into action to achieve it. They ignite our passion and inspire us to do our best. Government leaders in the 21st century are experiencing change at a more rapid pace than previous generations. Rapid advances in technology have expanded the quantity of work we are capable of accomplishing, and also where it’s accomplished. We have a more highly educated workforce, yet face diminishing resources with an increased demand for productivity, and the essential services we provide to the American public. To be successful at navigating these challenges leaders must develop the essential skills to motivate their employees, effectively communicate with others, fine-tune critical thinking skills, and build and leverage partnerships. Future leaders must also be visionary; i.e., possess the ability to identify trends and the courage to be innovative. Being technically adept in your field will no longer be enough. In response to these demands on senior executives, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management identified five Executive Core Qualifications (ECQs) that all aspiring government leaders and executives must possess. These ECQs and Fundamental Competencies were developed by OPM after extensive research on the attributes...
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...P R E FAC E THE ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENT Accounting is the most employable, sought-after major for 2009, according to entrylevel job site CollegeGrad.com. One reason for this interest is found in the statement by former Secretary of the Treasury and Economic Advisor to the President, Lawrence Summers. He noted that the single-most important innovation shaping our capital markets was the idea of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). We agree with Mr. Summers. Relevant and reliable financial information is a necessity for viable capital markets. Without it, our markets would be chaotic, and our standard of living would decrease. This textbook is the market leader in providing the tools needed to understand what GAAP is and how it is applied in practice. Mastery of this material will be invaluable to you in whatever field you select. Through many editions, this textbook has continued to reflect the constant changes taking place in the GAAP environment. This edition continues this tradition, which has become even more significant as the financial reporting environment is exploding with major change. Here are three areas of major importance that are now incorporated extensively into this edition of the text. A New Way of Looking at Generally Accepted Principles (GAAP) Learning GAAP used to be a daunting task, as it is comprised of many standards that vary in form, completeness, and structure. Fortunately, the profession has recently developed the Financial Accounting...
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...Leadership Development Seminars and ECQ-based Readings The success or failure of any endeavor depends on leadership. Now, more than ever before, we need leaders in our organizations and in our world. Great leaders create and communicate a vision and move people into action to achieve it. They ignite our passion and inspire us to do our best. Government leaders in the 21st century are experiencing change at a more rapid pace than previous generations. Rapid advances in technology have expanded the quantity of work we are capable of accomplishing, and also where it’s accomplished. We have a more highly educated workforce, yet face diminishing resources with an increased demand for productivity, and the essential services we provide to the American public. To be successful at navigating these challenges leaders must develop the essential skills to motivate their employees, effectively communicate with others, fine-tune critical thinking skills, and build and leverage partnerships. Future leaders must also be visionary; i.e., possess the ability to identify trends and the courage to be innovative. Being technically adept in your field will no longer be enough. In response to these demands on senior executives, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management identified five Executive Core Qualifications (ECQs) that all aspiring government leaders and executives must possess. These ECQs and Fundamental Competencies were developed by OPM after extensive research on the attributes...
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...Comments on FUTURE SHOCK C. P. Snow: "Remarkable ... No one ought to have the nerve to pontificate on our present worries without reading it." R. Buckminster Fuller: "Cogent ... brilliant ... I hope vast numbers will read Toffler's book." Betty Friedan: "Brilliant and true ... Should be read by anyone with the responsibility of leading or participating in movements for change in America today." Marshall McLuhan: "FUTURE SHOCK ... is 'where it's at.'" Robert Rimmer, author of The Harrad Experiment: "A magnificent job ... Must reading." John Diebold: "For those who want to understand the social and psychological implications of the technological revolution, this is an incomparable book." WALL STREET JOURNAL: "Explosive ... Brilliantly formulated." LONDON DAILY EXPRESS: "Alvin Toffler has sent something of a shock-wave through Western society." LE FIGARO: "The best study of our times that I know ... Of all the books that I have read in the last 20 years, it is by far the one that has taught me the most." THE TIMES OF INDIA: "To the elite ... who often get committed to age-old institutions or material goals alone, let Toffler's FUTURE SHOCK be a lesson and a warning." MANCHESTER GUARDIAN: "An American book that will ... reshape our thinking even more radically than Galbraith's did in the 1950s ... The book is more than a book, and it will do more than send reviewers raving ... It is a spectacular outcrop of a formidable, organized intellectual effort ... For the first time in history...
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