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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Excel

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This case is designed to enhance your understanding of building forecasted financial statements, by examining a company’s business model and strategy to estimate future performance. The case provides forecasts made by financial analysts at CIBC, which will be used to identify and evaluate the assumptions underlying these earnings forecasts.

1. Analysts are predicting that Krispy Kreme will be able to perform highly effectively and continue to grow rapidly in the coming two years. Do you agree with their analysis? If so, why? If not, why not?
2. What factors did the CIBC analysts examine to forecast sales growth for KKD in the years ended January 2003 and 2004? What assumptions did they implicitly make about the number of new stores and weekly sales per store (for both company and franchise stores)? What are their implicit assumptions about revenue growth from franchise operations and KK manufacturing and distribution? Do you agree with these forecasts? If so, why? If not, why not?
3. What are the NOPAT margins that the CIBC analysts have forecasted for KKD for the years ended January 2003 and 2004? What assumptions were made about specific expense items (e.g., margins, general and administrative, depreciation and amortization, taxes)? Do you agree with these forecasts? If so, why? If not, why not?
4. The CIBC analysts do not forecast KKD’s balance sheet for the following year (ended January 2003). Make you own balance sheet forecasts*.
5. In general, do you expect analysts’ forecasts for a company like KKD to be optimistic, pessimistic or unbiased? Why?

*For this case, only a condensed balance sheet is required. Use captions for Net Working Capital, Long-term Assets, Net Debt and Common

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