12/19/14

Systematic Traps and Biases in
Professional Judgment:
Insights from Research in Psychology
Douglas F. Prawitt, PhD, CPA
Brigham Young University

The Emerging Science of Judgment
• Rapid change, increased complexity in business
• Greater importance of professional judgment

The Emerging Science of Judgment
• Rapid change, increased complexity in business
• Greater importance of professional judgment
Fortunate coincidence: A critical mass of insight on human judgment emerging—
30+ years of research in economics, management, and cognitive psychology bearing fruit

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Ambitious goals for today
• Introduce a model—common vocabulary and framework • Explain importance of proactive “reframing” and identify common pitfalls in applying the judgment model
• Identify and explain judgment biases, and how to mitigate their impact

Visual Perception

Professional Judgment:
The process of reaching a conclusion where there are a number of possible alternative solutions and uncertainty is involved.

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Professional Judgment:
The process of reaching a conclusion where there are a number of possible alternative solutions and uncertainty is involved.

‐‐A simple process‐oriented professional judgment framework is helpful…

The KPMG Professional Judgment Framework

© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.

Common Traps in Applying a
“Simple” Judgment Framework

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Guess what is the first trap…

Trap No. 1: Solving the Wrong Problem

A good solution to a well‐defined problem is almost always better than an excellent solution to a poorly defined or ‘wrong’ problem.

Trap No. 2: Decision Triggers
Identify the Problem

◦ What triggered this decision?

Example: The phone call…

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The KPMG Professional Judgment Framework

© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.

A key: Develop a good set of Alternatives
Decisions can only be as good as the best alternative considered!

GRAPHIC OF GOLF SWING

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Framing Tendency

Framing

The Impact of Judgment Frames
• Judgment frames are mental structures we use, usually subconsciously, to simplify, organize, and guide our understanding of a situation.
• Frames determine the information we see as relevant or irrelevant, important or unimportant
• Be aware—you always have a frame!
• No single best frame, important to identify that frame and consider alternative frames

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Don’t Get Framed!
• Understand your current frame and its sources
• Challenge your current frame: Seek other’s opinions, welcome diversity, consider alternative metaphors • Consider the implications of different frames and identify the most appropriate frame
• Example: The “war on drugs”

Systematic Judgment Biases

Paradox

Our minds routinely solve problems too difficult for the mightiest computers, but we also make systematic, predictable errors in the simplest of judgments about everyday events

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Heuristics—i.e. “mental shortcuts”
• Heuristics are very efficient
• Benefits generally outweigh the costs
• However, can result in biased judgment
• Example—crossing the street in New
York…

Availability Tendency

Availability Tendency
• The tendency to consider information that is easily retrievable from memory as being more likely, more relevant, and more important for a judgment. 12/19/14

Question Regarding Available Information
• Which of the following do you believe most
Californians would say causes more deaths in the
U.S.?
A. Shark attack
B. Being struck by a falling part or object from an airplane Question Regarding Available Information
• Which of the following do you believe most
Californians would say causes more deaths in the
U.S.?
A. Shark attack
B. Being struck by a falling part or object from an airplane ‐‐Chemical company example…

Anchoring Tendency

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Anchoring and Adjustment
•We make assessments by starting from an initial value and adjusting away from that to form a final judgment. However, the adjustment from the anchor is typically insufficient.
•Example—real estate appraisers

Confirmation Tendency

Confirmation Tendency
• We have preferences/hypotheses and then tend to seek confirming evidence in support, and we give confirming evidence greater weight than disconfirming evidence.

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Confirmation Tendency
• We have preferences/hypotheses and then tend to seek confirming evidence in support, and we give confirming evidence greater weight than disconfirming evidence.
• Study of experienced Big‐4 tax professionals… Last Tendency…
Overconfidence Bias

Overconfidence Bias
Most of us are overconfident in our judgment abilities and do not acknowledge the actual level of uncertainty that exists.

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Overconfidence among Experts
• “Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossible” Overconfidence among Experts
• “Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossible” Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, c. 1895

Overconfidence among Experts
• “They couldn’t hit an elephant at this dist‐‐” 12/19/14

Overconfidence among Experts
• “They couldn’t hit an elephant at this dist‐‐” General John B. Sedgwick--Union Army Civil War officer’s last words, uttered during the Battle of
Spotsylvania, 1864

Overconfidence Results
(Percent Misses)

Target/Observed

Group Tested

Information Type

Harvard MBAs

Trivia facts

2% 46%

Computer Co.
Managers

General Business
Company‐specific

5% 80%
5% 58%

Physicians

Diagnosis of pneumonia 0‐20% 82%

What’s So Bad About Overconfidence?
Overconfidence Can Lead To:
Taking on too many projects
Over promising on deadlines
Considering only one alternative
Truncating information search or even skipping evidence gathering
• Snap judgments
• Avoidance or poor execution of judgment model •
•
•
•

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Judgment Tendencies
• Availability: Tendency to judge likelihood of events by how readily available specific examples are in our memory
• Anchoring: Tendency to insufficiently adjust away from an initial anchor
• Confirmation: Tendency to seek and overweight confirming evidence
• Overconfidence: Tendency to be overconfident in our judgment abilities
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Mitigating Biases and Decision Traps

AWARENESS!
Plus a healthy dose of common sense Motion Induced Blindness

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Mitigating Biases—example approaches
• Confirmation bias: Seek disconfirming information… • Anchoring bias: Consider alternative anchors, involve others not exposed to anchor…
• Availability bias: Pause to consider more than just most recent experience, determine base rates…
• Over‐confidence bias: Engage in “pre‐mortem thinking”‐‐imagine a bad outcome and determine possible causes…

The KPMG Professional Judgment Framework

© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.

Systematic Traps and Biases in
Professional Judgment:
Insights from Research in Psychology
Douglas F. Prawitt, PhD, CPA
Brigham Young University

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