...A SYSTEM SIMULATION STUDY ON THE THREE FAST MOVING PRODUCTS (MARLBORO, C2, VIVA) OF THE COLLEGE VARIETY SHOPPE USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN INVENTORY MANAGEMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study shows how the selected three fast moving products (Marlboro cigarettes, C2, Viva mineral water) move from the current Inventory Management technique of the College Variety Shoppe from its distributors to its warehouse storage to the end user or customer. An excel program and a simulation model was made to observed its current performance. After the observation, the group performs an experimentation that will improve the current technique of the College Variety Shoppe. After simulating the experimentation, the group then give conclusions and recommendations on how to improve the College Variety Shoppe’s current Inventory Management. TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page ........................................................ 1 Executive Summary ........................................................ 2 Table of Contents ........................................................ 3 Introduction ........................................................ 4 Methodology ........................................................ 6 Model Development ........................................................ 7 Model Validation ........................................................ 11 Experimentation, Results .......
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...Initial operations strategy Prior to the commencement of the simulation, we examined the 50 days of historical data to glean as much information as we could about the operations. We performed some analysis in Excel and created a dashboard to illustrate various data. Specifically, we regressed the prior 50 days of jobs accepted to forecast demand over the next 2 - 3 months within a 95% confidence interval. The yellow and grey lines represent the maximum and minimum variability, respectively, based on two standard deviations (95%). Exhibit 1: Forecasted and actual demand by Day 50 and Day 270 Our two primary goals at the beginning of the simulation were as follows: 1) Eliminate bottlenecks and increase capacity in order to meet forecasted demand 2) Decrease lead time to 0.25 days in order to satisfy Contract 2 and maximize revenue In order to achieve these goals, we would need to know the capacity and throughput time of the entire system. We used the time required by each machine to process a lot to calculate capacity per station and then capacity of the entire production line (380 kits/day or 6 orders/day). In Exhibit 2 we can observe that the capacity of the production line is given by the station that produces the least number of units per day. Exhibit 2: Capacity of the production line The Decisions We decided to work with the maximum variability of demand because there was a penalty for late jobs and because there was no revenue for orders that took more than “x”...
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...Monte Carlo Statistical Analysis Name Course Instructor Date The Monte Carlo method is a mathematical method used for problem solving through the generation of random numbers and then observing a fraction of these numbers and the properties they obey. It is useful in obtaining numerical solutions to problems that are too complicated for analytical solutions. It is a form of probability used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in various areas such as financial and cost forecasting. It involves computation of the likelihood of given events occurring or not occurring, without taking into account the interaction of the elements involved in influencing the occurrence. The mathematical method was invented by Stanislaw Ulam in 1946 and named by Nicholas Metropolis after a classy gambling resort in Monaco, where a relative of Ulam frequently gambled [ (Fishman, 1996) ]. Concepts of the Monte Carlo method Uncertainty Being a forecasting model, there are assumptions that need to be made due to the uncertainty of various factors. One therefore needs to be able to make estimations of the expected results as they cannot predict with certainty what the end value will be. Important factors such as historical data and past experiences in the field can be helpful in making an accurate estimate. Estimation In some cases, estimation may be possible but in others it is not. In situations where estimation is possible, it is wise to use a wide range of possible values instead...
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...materials such as Ultra/Advanced High Strength Steels (U/AHSS), aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys and boron steels in automotive industry is increasing to reduce vehicle weight and increase crash performance. The use of these relatively new materials requires advanced and reliable techniques to a) obtain data on material properties and flow stress, b) predicting springback and fracture in bending and flanging, c) selecting lubricants and die materials/coatings for stamping and forging and d) designing tools for blanking and shearing. In addition, designing the process and tooling for a) hot stamping of boron steels, b) warm forming of Al and Mg alloys, and c) optimizing the use of servo-drive presses require advanced Finite Element based simulation methods. CPF is conducting R&D in most of these topics and also in many hot and cold forging related topics. This paper gives an overview of this research and discusses how the research results are applied in cooperation with industry. Keywords: Metal Forming, Sheet metal, Forging, FEM 1 INTRODUCTION The Center for Precision Forming (CPF) has been established with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and a number of companies (www.cpforming.org). CPF is an outgrowth of the Engineering Research Center for Net Shape Manufacturing (ERC/NSM – www.ercnsm.org) and conducts research in sheet metal forming while ERC/NSM focuses on cold and hot forging related R&D projects. Both Centers work closely with industry under contract....
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...INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this paper is to bring out the use of Simulation by Managers of various organizations. Under discussion will be: Definition of simulation. Model construction. When and why it becomes handy to use simulation. Steps used in simulation technique. Random selection in simulation. Advantages / benefits derived from use of simulation technique. Disadvantages /Challenges associated with simulation technique. Role of computer in simulation. Conclusion / comments. Definition of simulation: Simulation can be defined as a quantitative technique which describes a process by developing a model of that process and then conduct a series of organized trial and error experiments to predict the behavior of the process through time often with the aid of a computer. It is a method that is used to solve a problem in many areas of management, for example inventory management, queuing problems, profit analysis and project management among others. Model construction: A successful simulation model has to be carefully designed in order to achieve the intended predictive purpose. Therefore important factors have to be considered such as; i. It must be objective oriented. It must be constructed for a purpose and be able to achieve that purpose. ii. Critical variables and relationships. These must be identified and incorporated in model. However it is not essential or indeed desirable to include all variables in the model. iii. Simplicity...
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...County Hospital Simulation Project Abstract The paper offers a simulation model describing the X-ray departments operations in the county hospital. It can be used for testing various process scenarios, for allocation of resources and also conduct activity based cost analysis. The simulation model is used for demonstrating a new operational method that makes the operations at the X-ray department more effective. The operational method is referred to as Triage team method. This method has been it is been studied from two view points. The results showed that the method enhances the X-ray department if properly implemented and it incorporates all the required tasks. County hospital simulation project Introduction The department of x-ray in the county hospital is facing a challenge in the x-ray department. With the increased amount of patients visiting the x-ray department, the challenge to the health care managers is becoming serious. The process undergone and the resources need to be reconsidered to make the operations more efficient. This will also maintain the quality of care. The objective of the department is to ensure that the patients take minimal time in the process. The resources also need to be allocated in the most effective way and by use of more advanced technology. Since X-ray department and the processes therewith are somewhat complicated, and have dynamic variables and has random features, definitely there is a need for a method that is effective. The...
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...Applied mathematics in Engineering, Management and Technology 2 (2) 2014:466-475 www.amiemt-journal.com Using a combined method of hierarchical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to identify and prioritize the target market selection criteria (Case study: Food distribution companies of Mashhad-Iran) Amir kariznoee Ph.D. student of Industrial Management,University of Mazandaran ,Iran (Corresponding Author's E-mail: Amir.kariznoee@yahoo.com) Monireh Bijandi Graduate of Accounting in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Mahdi Ghayur Maddah Student of Public Management in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Vajihe Mogharabi M.A. Student of Information Technology Management, Shahid beheshti University,Tehran,Iran Abstract The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the key factors in selecting a target market in the food industry. In order to determine the components and subcomponents of this study, we have used previous researches in this area. In order to match these factors with the food industry situation and create a hierarchical structure, we have obtained the opinions of 323 experts about affecting factors on choosing a market in this industry with the use of questionnaire. Then, using a combination of hierarchal analysis process and Monte Carlo simulation and cooperation with 10 senior executives of distribution companies, the weight of each component and sub-component was determined. In general, four components and ten sub-components were...
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...Littlefield Technologies Assignment 5 PM on February 22 . Starting at 5 PM on Wednesday, February 27, the simulation will begin The game will end at 9 PM on Sunday, March 3. Accessing your factory http://quick.responsive.net/lt/toronto3/entry.html Littlefield Technologies’ Operations board stuffing testing tuning Operations Policies at Littlefield Purchasing Supplies Processing in Batches Contract Pricing Borrowing from the Bank Cash Balance The winning team is the team with the most cash at the end of the game (cash on hand less debt). Current State of the System and Your Assignment At the end of day 350, the factory will shut down and your final cash position will be determined. Starting at 5 PM on Wednesday, February 27, the simulation will begin The game will end at 9 PM on Sunday, March 3. PLEASE DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE FINAL SECONDS TO MAKE YOUR CHANGES. SOMETIMES THEY TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO BE PROCESSED. Written Assignment: Analysis of Game 2 of Littlefield Technologies Simulation Due March 14, 8:30 am in eDropbox Your group is going to be evaluated in part on your success in the game and in part on how clear, well structured and thorough your write-up is. The write-up only covers the second round, played from February 27 through March 3. It should not discuss the first round. Your write-up should address the following points: • A brief description of what actions you chose and when. Not a full list of every action, but the major...
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...Chapter 51. Enhancing Patient Safety in Nursing Education Through Patient Simulation Carol Fowler Durham, Kathryn R. Alden Background The alarming rise in morbidity and mortality among hospitalized patients throughout the United States heightens concerns about professional competency.1 Nurses and other health care professionals are under increased scrutiny to provide safe, effective care. Likewise, nursing education programs are faced with increased pressure to produce graduates who are capable of providing safe patient care. Toward that end, nursing education programs develop curricula, hire qualified faculty, and select learning experiences for students in an effort to train and graduate competent, effective nurses. The instructional strategies utilized in both didactic and clinical components of nursing education courses are highly influential in determining critical thinking and clinical decisionmaking ability as well as in developing the psychomotor skill performance of new graduates. Of course, it is unrealistic to think that graduates of nursing education programs have received all the training they need when they depart the doors of academia. Orientation programs for new graduates and continuing education for nurses are essential tools to help practitioners improve their knowledge, skills, and expertise so that quality patient care is provided and outcomes are optimized while errors are minimized. Ongoing evaluation of nursing competence is necessary...
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...Crisis Management Simulations Preparing for the unexpected is what most businesses and governments strive to do. They hope to curb the next disaster in their favor. Or in worst-case scenario, businesses and governments hope to at least curb the crisis to be the least damaging to their image. The question people struggle with is how can these organizations prepare for every possible crisis they could encounter? It is simple: they cannot. However, with today’s technology many organizations have implemented crisis management simulations to better prepare for these worst-case scenarios as well as test the organizations’ tactics used in managing crises. Crisis simulations are relatively new and unheard of in some companies. Crisis management’s purpose is to engage “the whole organization in efforts to avert crises that may affect the firm, and to effectively manage those that do occur” (Pearson, n.d.). Organized crises are used in firms to simulate a crisis, such as a PR scandal or terrorist attack, and test the organization’s reaction to the event, how the crisis is handled, and if it is done effectively. These simulations are recently becoming popular to use in organizations because of new technology that gives them a real-time, fast-paced feel. Companies are now realizing that “as the development of new technology outpaces our ability to fully understand its impact, and as global reach relentlessly stretches organizational capabilities, ‘firefighting’ becomes a way of life” (Pearson...
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...TOPICS IN AD HOC AND SENSOR NETWORKS Simulations in Wireless Sensor and Ad Hoc Networks: Matching and Advancing Models, Metrics, and Solutions Ivan Stojmenovic, University of Birmingham and University of Ottawa ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to give advice for carrying out a proper and effective simulation activity for protocol design. It challenges some of the existing criticisms of simulation practices that emphasized validation aspects. This article advocates the use of simple models, matching assumptions and metrics in the problem statement and simulation to provide a basic “proof of concept,” and comparison with truly competing solutions, which is possible only after a thorough and critical literature review. Then the complexity of the models can be increased (one parameter at a time), revising the algorithms themselves by adapting them to new assumptions, metrics, and the corresponding simulation environment. Selected independent variables should explain performance under a wide range of scenarios. unclear which protocol will perform well under a wide range of scenarios. It is our view that each article should be judged on its overall contribution, including the assumptions used, theory developed, new algorithms introduced, protocol details, simulation results, and relevance to an ultimate goal of staying on a path toward creating applications. We begin with a literature review of existing criticism for simulation practices, and then discuss what we believe...
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...This report provides an in-depth analysis of the two Everest Simulations conducted by Group 10 of MGMT1001 Thursday Tutorial. This task required students to form teams consisting of five to six members whose goals were to summit Mount Everest. While it provided us with a rich experience in team dynamics and collaboration, it also enabled us to explore key managerial concepts taught in the course, consisting of: • Communication • Groups and Teams • Leadership In this report, we examine the effectiveness of Face to Face Communication (FTFC) versus Computer Mediated Communication (CMC), and the problems encountered through the utilisation of the virtual medium including efficiency of the feedback system, loss of personal focus and other emergent issues. It includes personal reflections on attitudes and perceptions, as well as group performance and strategies adopted in the second Simulation in order to create a more positive team experience. Theories which relate to interpersonal communication have also been integrated in the report to illustrate its relation to certain situations encountered during the Simulation. Additionally, we provide a multifaceted analysis on the notion of team cohesiveness and how it attributes to better performance outcomes. An overview on the different intragroup conflicts encountered in the Simulation has been included, examining the positive and negative impact that conflict had on team experience and performance, and how mutual agreements were reached...
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...is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary. 14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation? Give examples of how each may be applied. Answer Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management. System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems. Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate. 14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters). (b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a). Did they change significantly? Why or why not? (c) What is the new expected number of sales per week? Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD 3 2 4 9 5 10 6 15 7 25 8 12 9 12 10 10 B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25 14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed B, They both are probabilistic simulations. Chapter 5 HW 5-14 Using MAD, determine whether...
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...NS2 soft solution: Ns2 soft solution is a software development based company which contain innovative and expertise to facilitate complex projects in an efficient way. We offer various broad solution projects for researchers and students to increase demands among other centers and customer centric solution with high standard. We offer various projects under NS2 simulation based on IEEE papers and non IEEE papers. We deploy various NS2 projects as a virtual one in real time application. Ns2 soft solution is a highly experienced team member of developer professionals providing a wide range of complex projects and network protocol simulation. Our motto: • Advance technology enhancement. • Make everything possible. • Provide service quality for every commitment. Basic aims of Ns2 soft solution are: • Providing guidance for students to select the efficient project based on student interest which ensures a success in their projects. • We train and make students to learn all the concepts from basic to advance such that students can get a clear idea about the project what they do. • Based on...
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...The Mikes Bikes simulation is an exciting and interesting way to gain critical insights into the development of a business. By operating a simulated bicycle manufacturing corporation over a period of ten years was an opportunity to gain insights on a real entrepreneurial experience. It allowed us to expand on the ideas taught in class such as creating a business strategy and using tools like SWOT and Porter’s five forces. We had many assumptions initially regarding the procedures but gradually we could learn the basics by facing enough challenges and by trial and error method. These skills cannot be learned by the usual form of lecturing. Considering our team, this was our first comprehensive exposure to real business environment. Each...
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