Macroeconomic Analysis: Project II

Class: ECON545

4/12/2011

Introduction to Situation
The paper analyzes and summarizes how the automotive industry is impacted by the macro economy. In helping my friend Rick expand his small manufacturing plant that produces parts for the auto industry, I’m going to identify a brief history of the automotive industry, how it impacts the GDP, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The supply and demand of the automotive industry as well as the profits derived from the sector are clearly impacting by then macroeconomic policies. The industry’s history demonstrates the trends it follows in the business cycle and how economic indicators have impacted the performance of the industry over the years. The measure of production, interest rates, real GDP, automotive sales and inflation and unemployment are some of the most compelling instruments that can be used to assess the state of the automotive industry.

Business Cycles
The U.S automotive industry saw a steady expansion from its inception until 1978 in which where production reached its all-time peak. The industry showed a small contraction and a quick recovery leading to its peak between 1972 and 1976. In the early 1980 there was a big drop in production units and the industry fell into its first true recession. The industry recovered in the mid 80s peaking in 1988, but never reached its previous high before falling into another recession that lasted from 1990 to 1992 (Smith, 1996). The automotive industry’s production rates have been cycling through different business phases throughout history. In 1999 the automotive industry finally recovered and reached its previous high. Now the automotive industry is again experiencing a recession. Traditionally, during times of expansion the inflation in the economy is