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Managerial Economics

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CHAPTER

6

Specification: Choosing the Independent Variables
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 Omitted Variables Irrelevant Variables An Illustration of the Misuse of Specification Criteria Specification Searches Lagged Independent Variables An Example of Choosing Independent Variables Summary and Exercises Appendix: Additional Specification Criteria

Before any equation can be estimated, it must be completely specified. Specifying an econometric equation consists of three parts: choosing the correct independent variables, the correct functional form, and the correct form of the stochastic error term. A specification error results when any one of these choices is made incorrectly. This chapter is concerned with only the first of these, choosing the variables; the second and third will be taken up in later chapters. That researchers can decide which independent variables to include in regression equations is a source of both strength and weakness in econometrics. The strength is that the equations can be formulated to fit individual needs, but the weakness is that researchers can estimate many different specifications until they find the one that “proves” their point, even if many other results disprove it. A major goal of this chapter is to help you understand how to choose variables for your regressions without falling prey to the various errors that result from misusing the ability to choose. The primary consideration in deciding if an independent variable belongs in an equation is whether the variable is essential to the regression on the basis of theory. If the answer is an unambiguous yes, then the variable definitely
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CHAPTER 6

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SPECIFICATION: CHOOSING THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

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should be included in the equation, even if it seems to be lacking in statistical significance. If theory is ambivalent or less emphatic, a dilemma arises.

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