...MARKETS / MODELS / CRISIS … WHO IS THE WINNER? Walid BEHAR Founder of TBS Finance Entrepreneur, Investment Analyst, Accelero Capital a.walidbehar@gmail.com Since the Great Depression*, History has shown us how important it is to understand the rationale behind those 3 key elements that will rule the future of Financial markets. Understanding the synergy and link between them is like trying to know who has been engendered first, the egg or the chicken. Every story has its beginning, let us begin by the foundation. It seems to be that markets are driven by a simple rule « the rule of bid and ask ». After a bloody battle between classics and Keynesians, the little child has grown up to become what economists call «The Efficient Market». But as me you are wondering: is it so efficient? Not so much! A market is efficient if every relevant information is perfectly and at a time reflected on coted assets prices In fact, there are three versions of the efficient market hypothesis. In weak-form hypothesis futures prices cannot be forecasted by analyzing past trends from historical data. In other words, technical analysis will not be consistent and will not produce excess return. In semi-strong efficiency, share prices should adjust to the available new information very rapidly. Thus, it implies that neither fundamental nor technical analysis methods will be able to reliably produce interesting returns. Finally, the strong form of efficient market stipulates that...
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...“N” Day Breakout Model on Commodity Market: An Empirical Investigation Zhenyi Yang 12/12/2012 1. Introduction There are various strategies to make profits on the commodity markets. The “N” day breakout model is one of the easiest model. However, it is a very effective model and used by many traders. The article uses the “N” day breakout model, combined with the “fixed fractional” risk management scheme, to study the return of the commodity market. The article also compares the different outcomes with different data manipulation method and the potential reasons behind the difference. 2. The “N” Day Break Out Model The N day break out model utilizes the method that the futures are longed at N day high and shorted at M day low. The rational explanation of the method is that the futures usually continue to rise after a breakout its long-term high. Also, the futures continue to fall after it breaks its short-term low. To simplify the problem, in this article, it chooses the 100 day high as the buying point and the 10 day low as the selling point. The period of study ranges from Dec 2002 to Dec 2012. Moreover, the article also studies the maximum profit one million account balance would make with this strategy with each commodity does not exceed 1% risk. 3. Data Manipulation Because the commodity future expires after one or two years, for a longer period time, the charts of different futures contracts needs to be connected. Some methods are continuous, which...
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...Market Structure and Models Market structure is a very important concept because the impacts of it affect the outcomes of the market. The market structure is organized according to key characteristics such as the number of firms in the market, the control over the price of the relevant product, the type of the product sold in the market, the barriers to new firms entering the market, and the existence of non-price competition in the market. The goal of the market structure is to arrange all of that affect in order to explain and forecast market outcomes. The structures focus on the affects of economic behavior on competition. These markets are classified according to the structure of the industry serving the market. First I will discuss Pure Competition. Pure Competition involves many firms producing a standardized product, identical to its competitors. Consumers will be unresponsive to which producer is selling in a purely competitive market, making sellers have no control over their prices, but since there are such a large number of suppliers of the product, no firm views another supplier as a competitor. There is little competition under pure competition. No single firm leads in the market under pure competition, which makes it a very desirable market. There are three stipulations that make a market structure "purely competitive." Homogeneity of product means that the product sold by any seller in the market is identical to the product sold by any other supplier. If...
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...How Personal Can Ethics Get? Discuss how personal differences and preference can impact organizational ethics. Let me begin by defining ethics – are the values and principles that distinguish right from wrong. (Hellriegel & Slocum, 2011, p. 10) Organizational ethics is a tool that shapes an organization as a community. In every organization, there is something that works well, which can serve as a foundation for significant progress toward a desired future. Very often the two do not blend. I, remember a particular incident that involved my supervisor and I; like many ambitious people she would have comprise all her morals and values to reach the managerial level. I also was determined to make a name for myself within the company but I had boundaries that governed my actions. Immediately out of the gate we bumped heads. Unfortunately for her, during the interview I could read her but apparently she was not seasoned enough to do the same with me. I could tell in our interview process that she was not as knowledgeable as I in our chosen field. I had already known that there was going to be competitiveness between us to gain recognition within this company because I had been told that I would pretty much be stagnated as far as advancing within the company because there was neither a Black nor Hispanic who held a managerial position. Well I worked there for few years before my opportunity to shine happened; my supervisor ask me to do her a favor and work up some net...
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...explain the general pattern of change of the particular market model Health insurance in the United States providers represent competitive market because they are numerous, variety of choices, and no single entity has much power over prices. The health insurance can be considered as rapid growth industry. Recently, this industry is transforming in a rapid way and evolving into an oligopoly. Insurance markets in many states are eventually controlled and dominated by a few large firms. There were more than five hundred health insurers involved mergers between 1998 and 2008 (Bakhtiari, 2010). Although there are hundreds of small insurance companies operating in the market, the industry Led by WellPoint, 12 health plans cover two-thirds of the enrollment in the U.S. commercial-insurance market (Bloomberg News, 2010). An analyst's report cited in the article predicts there will be 100 insurers with around 200,000 members could be forced out of business. Smaller insurers are increasingly unable to invest in the infrastructure and technology to effectively manage care (Bakhtiari, 2010). However, mergers have been the main power rather than small insurers going out of business. 2. Hypothesize the basic short-run and long-run behaviors of the model in the industry you have chosen in a “market economy” This paper uses Kinked-Demand theory of oligopoly; there is no single theory that explains oligopoly behavior. The kinked demand model assumes that if one firm raises the prices, other firms...
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...Market Model Pattern of Change: Automobile Industry Presented By Name Institution Instructor Course Title Date of Submission Abstract Automobile industry is one of the oligopolistic industries that have experienced a change in its oligopoly market model. The pattern of change is evidently shown in its production, supply chain, pricing, and international trade changes. The paper examines this industry and explains the pattern of change and other aspects within the industry. Industry description Automobile industry is one of the most global oligopolistic industries. Products in this industry have spread throughout the globe, and a few numbers of companies with worldwide recognition have dominated it. However, the industry is facing historical changes that are resulting from changing customer needs in the triad and emerging markets, technological advances, entrance of new competitors, and the ever-tightening emission standards. These changes have affected the demand, margin structures as well as value chains in this industry. As a result, the market is changing to a mobility market, which is more competitive, and the industry structure is changing and more importantly, the market model. This is forcing market players and new entrants to change market framework in order to achieve sustainable success. General pattern of change of the oligopoly market model of automotive industry The current global automobile industry is full of risks and opportunities...
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...Running Head: MARKET MODEL PATTERNS OF CHANGE Market Model Patterns of Change Student Strayer University ECO 550: Managerial Economics and Globalization Dr. Professor June 2, 2013 Market Model Patterns of Change Comcast Corporation is one of the world’s leading media, entertainment, and communications companies. It is principally involved in operating cable systems through Comcast Cable and is the nation’s largest pay-tv provider to residential and business customers with more than 22 million subscribers. Comcast Corporation is the majority owner and manager of NBC Universal, which owns and operates entertainment and news cable networks, the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks, local television station groups, television production operations, a major motion picture company and theme parks. Though they now work collaboratively with other industries to provide their products and services, this was not always the case. In the past, they were able to enjoy a monopolistic business model in the areas they served because they were the only game in town. . Characteristics of monopoly structure are: profit maximization since there is only one firm that determines the price in the market; only a single seller exists which implies that the market is controlled by one firm; and the firm is the same as the industry. Cable television was not so well received when it was offered to the public for the first time in 1948. Initially it was called Community Antenna TV or CATV and...
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...explain the general pattern of change of the particular market model Health insurance in the United States providers represent competitive market because they are numerous, variety of choices, and no single entity has much power over prices. The health insurance can be considered as rapid growth industry. Recently, this industry is transforming in a rapid way and evolving into an oligopoly. Insurance markets in many states are eventually controlled and dominated by a few large firms. There were more than five hundred health insurers involved mergers between 1998 and 2008 (Bakhtiari, 2010). Although there are hundreds of small insurance companies operating in the market, the industry Led by WellPoint, 12 health plans cover two-thirds of the enrollment in the U.S. commercial-insurance market (Bloomberg News, 2010). An analyst's report cited in the article predicts there will be 100 insurers with around 200,000 members could be forced out of business. Smaller insurers are increasingly unable to invest in the infrastructure and technology to effectively manage care (Bakhtiari, 2010). However, mergers have been the main power rather than small insurers going out of business. 2. Hypothesize the basic short-run and long-run behaviors of the model in the industry you have chosen in a “market economy” This paper uses Kinked-Demand theory of oligopoly; there is no single theory that explains oligopoly behavior. The kinked demand model assumes that if one firm raises the prices, other firms...
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...Правительство Российской Федерации федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования "Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики" Факультет экономики Кафедра финансового менеджмента КУРСОВАЯ РАБОТА На тему «Предсказательные модели на финансовых рынках» Студент группы № Э-10-3 Выгузов Г.А.___________ (Ф.И.О.) Научный руководитель Преподаватель кафедры финансового менеджмента Паршаков П.А._________ (должность, звание, Ф.И.О.) Пермь, 2013 г. Оглавление Введение 3 Глава 1. Методы прогнозирования на фондовом рынке и гипотеза эффективного рынка 5 1.1 Технический и фундаментальный анализ ценных бумаг 5 1.2 Гипотеза эффективного рынка 9 Глава 2. Создание и тестирование моделей с помощью алгоритма машинного обучения Random Forest. 13 2.1 Описание алгоритма Random Forest 13 2.2 Построение и тестирование моделей 14 Заключение 23 Список литературы 25 Приложение 1 27 Приложение 2 27 Приложение 3 28 Приложение 4 28 Приложение 5 29 Приложение 6 29 Приложение 7 30 Приложение 8 30 Приложение 9 31 Приложение 10 31 Введение Прогнозирование на рынке ценных бумаг является старым, но не потерявшим от этого своей актуальности...
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...Tornado Tips and Safety Tornadoes cause major destruction across the nation. Some areas may seem to attract tornadoes more so than others but it doesn’t mean a tornado can’t strike an area just because of the geographical location. There is not a typical or specified season for Tornadoes to occur; however, if weather conditions are conducive, a tornado can possibly form. Tornadoes extend from severe thunderstorms and usually develop from the trailing end of a storm. It is possible and not uncommon for the sun to be visible or skies to be partially clear during a tornado. Some tornadoes are easily seen and detected, while others strike quickly with little or no warning. This is why it is so important to know what to do in case of a tornado occurs in your area. Tornados destruction depends on what categories they may fall into. The categories for tornados fall in categories between F0- F5. F0 means Gale Tornado Category between 40 - 72 mph--Light damage which could cause some damage to chimneys, breaks branches off trees, pushes over shallow-rooted trees, and damages sign boards. Or a tornado can be classified all the way to an F5 which means Incredible Tornado Category between 261 - 318 mph-Incredible damage which could cause strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried a considerable distance and disintegrated, automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters, and trees debarked. If strong winds and hail and debris start moving it may be...
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...Corporate fraud can be very difficult to prevent and to catch. Corporate fraud schemes go beyond the scope of an employee’s stated position, and are marked by their complexity and economic impact on other employees and outside parties. By creating a system of checks and balances and physical security, a company may limit the amount of fraud that may be able to take place. This type of crime is considered a white collar crime. Three new ways that I believe will get rid of corporate fraud are: a. Evaluate programs and control When the auditor identifies risks of material misstatements due to fraud, the auditor must consider management’s programs and controls to address those risks. Auditors may want to include broader programs or certain controls designed to prevent, or detect fraud. The auditor would estimate whether these programs have been designed and placed in operation. b. Auditor’s response The auditors can develop a suitable response for every fraud risk recognized and includes more extensive guidance on how to do so. The auditors responses are usually influenced by the nature of the risks recognized, may have an overall effect on how the audit is conducted or might involve changing the nature. The response will usually involve performing certain procedures to address the risk of management override of controls. c. Expanded scope for assessing fraud risks The auditors should obtain a broader range of information to act as the foundation for an assessment that...
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...and national development strategy in a way that brings lasting value to the Mongolian economy, sustainable development of Mongolia in particular. Bringing M•CAM’s innovative suite of financial solutions, including new strategies using trade credit offsets, to the Mongolian market has the potential to accelerate the market engagement strategies of this culturally rich, resource endowed Mongolia. The M-ICP (www.m-icp.com) is a newly established company in Mongolia which provides ethical, innovative business, finance, and policy advisory services to businesses, communities, government and other development stakeholders. A core mission of M-ICP is the promotion and support of global innovation and technologies, innovative financing, global innovation commons and heritable innovation knowledge in a breakthrough ways. The M-ICP founded by four Mongolian professionals and Ms. Nergui Dorj is a Founding Chief Executive Director. She is an economist, banking and finance specialist and development practitioner - graduate of Moscow Financial Academy, Australian National University and University of Wollongong, Australia. Ms. Nergui Dorj had been an active player in Mongolia’s transition from centrally planned to a market oriented economy and worked in senior positions of the Bank of Mongolia, the central bank, Institute of Finance and Economy, Economic Policy Support Project, DAI/USAID, Prime Minister’s Office of Mongolia, UNDP Mongolia and UNDP Samoa. She also...
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...rate to cover the depreciation expense of the equipment. But I don’t want to overcharge either since regulators usually involve if monopoly price out of track. Select a non-monopolized product or service with which you are familiar and determine how the consumption of that product or service would differ if it were controlled by a monopoly. The imagined example of non-monopolized product or service would be car. We have many car makers such as big three, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai and Benz etc. Not mention we have thousands of car dealers across the nation, needless to say, car and its service are non-monopolized. These car makers and dealers compete with each other by lowering the price and cost or exhibiting the new model to lure customers. If there is only one car maker, then it become the monopoly. So the only car maker is very likely to hike the price since buyers are the price taker and you don’t have any choice anyway. Be prepare to pay more to get a new car in that case, and you don’t even need to shop around since car becomes the monopoly product....
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...Describe the business and explain the general pattern of change of the particular market model indicating how this change is likely to impact business operations. I chose to talk about the music recording industry. The music industry is a complicated system of several different companies and firms that have gone through and adapted to many changes as time went on. The music industry is concerned with the profits gained from the actions of companies that tackle production, distribution, and publication of music worldwide (MarketResearch.com, 2012). In the recording industry, music is made of up of several different genres, styles and or techniques. Recently the industry has experience a wave of new technology with music downloads. Consumers can download songs view the internet using iTunes or an iPod. It benefits everyone involved because you are still purchasing the music in another form. The industry has suffered since napster entered the market with free music sharing amongst users. Lawsuits, piracy protection, and finger pointing have gotten the music industry nowhere as sales has continue to drop drastically. Consumers blame the industry for not developing talent that is in anyway interesting. They are producing music that is manufactured at the least bit interesting at times. 2. Hypothesize the basic short-run and long-run behaviors of the model in the business you have chosen in a “market economy.” Provide support for your assumptions and conclusions. The basic short run...
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...Science and Technology B 1 (2011) 353-359 Earlier title: Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, ISSN 1939-1250 Assessment of Pricing Efficiency and Levels of Concentration in Cashew Nuts Market in South Western Nigeria K. A. Akanni and A. A. Adams Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agricultural Sciences, Olabisi Onabanjo University, P.M.B. 2002, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria Received: December 27, 2010 / Published: July 20, 2011. Abstract: Cashew nuts market in south western Nigeria is characterized by price fluctuations through space and time. This may be linked with the large number of market intermediaries who act between the primary producers and the markets. The sample for the study comprised 250 cashew nuts marketers who were randomly selected from the five south western states of Nigeria. About 76 % of the cashew nuts marketers had up to secondary school education and 86% of them had 15-year marketing experience and below. Pricing efficiency of the marketers was highest in Ogun state with average efficiency level of 85.1 % and least for Oyo state (68.9%). In all, 720 tonnes were transacted in the region with 206 marketers handling maximum of 2 kg per month per individual. Gini-coefficient estimate of 82.3% implied that there was a concentrated market for the cashew nuts. To further increase the pricing efficiency of the commodity it is necessary to reduce the costs incurred on various physical aspects in marketing system. Corporate organizations...
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